Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[GoofGoof]

Plus if they extended the opening date, they would have to do all reservations over again. They would have to completely redo all of the progress that they made and start form square one. That is one reason that I think that they will not extend the date. And also, Disney is going to have to find a way to exist and do business in this ”new normal”. i hate that term, but it is true, at least for now. We can’t shut down our whole country whenever there is a Large increase in cases. We need to find a safe, responsible, and sustainable way to operate during this time. This won’t go on forever, but until it is over we need to find a way to exist with the current circumstances. I know that Disney could announce something out of the blue in the next few days. If they are going to say something, it will happen this week. They open in 14 days and they will not want to keep people waiting. Maybe if it was the beginning of June and this was happening, I could see an extension. But now, it is highly unlikely in my opinion.

I’m not saying they should delay the opening, but on the long list of things that should and shouldn’t be open right now theme parks are beyond the mid point point and towards the bottom of the list. In other words if WDW delays their opening that’s a far cry from shutting the whole country down. Plenty of things can easily and safely be open and certain things can’t. I’m not saying WDW is in the “can’t be open category“ but it’s more problematic than a lot of other things.

 

[BrianLo]

I was one who thought they would have pulled the plug under their own volition by now. But they seemingly have not and now is the period of time where the reopening costs start to compound.

If there is a wave of closures though triggered by mounting hospitalizations that's the next phase they could get swept up.

Unfortunately for Disney, even if they do open they'll be doing so on quite the significant upswing (or peak) by the time mid-July roles around. They won't be happy with the media blowback.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I was one who thought they would have pulled the plug under their own volition by now. But they seemingly have not and now is the period of time where the reopening costs start to compound.

If there is a wave of closures though triggered by mounting hospitalizations that's the next phase they could get swept up.

Unfortunately for Disney, even if they do open they'll be doing so on quite the significant upswing (or peak) by the time mid-July roles around. They won't be happy with the media blowback.

this week is the last week to make the decision. We shall see what happens.

 

[disney4life2008]

I see this from a different perspective. Not to say people from out of state are not currently coming here for universal or other area attractions. But the reality is that once Disney opens, everyone from the country and those from around the world will be here. And anyone who thinks Disney world itself will not see a spike and Orlando as a result is crazy.

 

[EdnaMode]

It is not a bunch of BS. The new spike in infections is too recent to have a meaningful impact on hospitalizations. Give it a week or ten days. Hospitalizations will, sadly, likely catch up.

The moving average on new hospitalizations in my county is up from 25.7 one week ago to 52 today. That can't happen without more (and more...) new hospitalizations every day this past week. People will act on information however they're going to act and will feel however they are going to feel ("it's a bunch of BS") but they can't change the actual information legally required to be reported by physician offices and hospitals for communicable diseases, aka facts.

New admissions for COVID for the last week in my county:
6/21 = 10
6/22 = 21
6/23 =56
6/24 = 56
6/25 =49
6/26 = 59
6/27 = 46
6/28 = 60

 

[Moka]

But the reality is that once Disney opens, everyone from the country and those from around the world will be here. And anyone who thinks Disney world itself will not see a spike and Orlando as a result is crazy.

Yup, and pretty much each theme park that has or is opening has said pretty much it's not their problem if you get covid, so either way, I don't think they'd backtrack. That's why I think parks won't close again. Everybody knows and the parks know its the guests taking the risk because no matter how safe you play it you can get it. they said it themselves. so nobody can sue disney over getting covid anyways lol

 

[GoofGoof]

I see this from a different perspective. Not to say people from out of state are not currently coming here for universal or other area attractions. But the reality is that once Disney opens, everyone from the country and those from around the world will be here. And anyone who thinks Disney world itself will not see a spike and Orlando as a result is crazy.

At this point the bigger fear may be the opposite. WDW opening draws people from all over to Central FL where the case load is high and they bring infection back home to areas less impacted right now. There was a period back in April/May when the fear was people from hot spots would bring infection into an otherwise lightly impacted area but those tables have turned now. CMs may have a much bigger fear of being infected by co-workers over tourists at this point.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

They have to open at some point...it’s not like the flood gates are opened, and millions of people show up.

They have to trickle in guests, retrain staff, etc. There’s no playbook for how to do this right. And, if we are being honest, no time is better than the present - Covid19 will be here, in some form next year.

 

[Millionaire2K]

Deaths lag substantially. This most recent spike does not factor in hospitalization or deaths yet.

"Flatten the curve" was about two things: keeping hospitals from overflowing and using the intervening time to find some kind of solution to mitigate deaths and spread, whether that be a therapeutic or a robust contact tracing program to isolate potentially positive people as quickly as possible. We did nothing, we just reopened and hoped for the best.

Fewer of the people getting infected are getting seriously sick. Even as the number of infections has increased, the number of hospitalizations has slowed. At the start of the month, the state announced one hospitalization for every 10 infections. That number has since fallen to one in 20.

That’s probably because the people getting infected are younger. The median age of new cases dropped from a high of 65 in early March to 35 as of Thursday. It has continued to drop in recent days, as more cases have been discovered.

Just saying "OMG lots more cases means lots more deaths" is misleading and disingenuous. If more young people are found to have the virus, this does not mean the vulnerable will be dying.

We DO need to keep social distancing and continue to protect the elderly. A blanket "CLOSE EVERYTHING" is not the answer.

PS, I fully support anyone's decision to feel differently and to take steps they feel is appropriate to keep themselves safe.

Much love.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

60% of adults have at least one medical factor that makes them high risk and that doesn’t include anyone over 65 who isn’t medically high risk or children living with high risk parents or taking care of them or also high risk adult grandparents who are the primary caretaker for grandkids. Once you add it all up there’s not enough people left to keep the economy going or for WDW to open. That plan just doesn’t work.

But the economy has to restart at one point. It’s easy to attribute deaths to the virus. It’s not so easy to trace the number of deaths from unemployment. I’ve heard as many as 40,000 people die in the US for every 1% increase in unemployment. Every business is essential because every business represents the lifeline between starvation or supper for someone’s family. If they want to reopen and they feel that the rewards outweigh the risks, let them. If they want to stay shut, let them. But at some point we can’t just keep printing money and kicking the bucket down the road. Hopefully there is a vaccine soon (God willing). If not, heard immunity is our best bet. It’s not fair, but such is life.

 

[Magic Feather]

In my reviews of assorted COVID research, there seem to be two big scenarios where COVID spread would be a serious problem even with mask enforcement: theaters and restaurants. Both incentivize people to stay in the same place and breath the same air as many other people not in their party for an extended period of time. As long as you are moving through a space semi frequently, and everyone is wearing masks, you should be almost entirely protected. This is the stuff that makes me less nervous about the reopening.
However, what does make me nervous isn’t WDW itself, but the hundreds of hotels and businesses surrounding it (that many of these visitors will also visit) where rules are more lax and COVID is more likely to spread.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

My guess would be maybe by 2-3 weeks pushback on parks, rolling back some of Disney Springs, but to continue with the NBA as they likely see it is a bit of a different situation than the actual parks. Could be wrong though, also curious what they would do with the DVC properties already open with people staying there.

Springs already has non Disney owned stores voluntarily closing. Expect more this week.

 

[GoofGoof]

But the economy has to restart at one point. It’s easy to attribute deaths to the virus. It’s not so easy to trace the number of deaths from unemployment. I’ve heard as many as 40,000 people die in the US for every 1% increase in unemployment. Every business is essential because every business represents the lifeline between starvation or supper for someone’s family. If they want to reopen and they feel that the rewards outweigh the risks, let them. If they want to stay shut, let them. But at some point we can’t just keep printing money and kicking the bucket down the road. Hopefully there is a vaccine soon (God willing). If not, heard immunity is our best bet. It’s not fair, but such is life.

The vast majority of the economy is re-open. Its not going to be possible for everything to re-open like it was before Covid. It’s not all or nothing. If 90% gets going thats pretty good. As we’ve seen recently packed bars are a problem. Can’t have that right now. Bars can open with physical distancing and masks for workers and capacity limits. It won’t be business as usual but it’s better than nothing.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

But the economy has to restart at one point. It’s easy to attribute deaths to the virus. It’s not so easy to trace the number of deaths from unemployment. I’ve heard as many as 40,000 people die in the US for every 1% increase in unemployment. Every business is essential because every business represents the lifeline between starvation or supper for someone’s family. If they want to reopen and they feel that the rewards outweigh the risks, let them. If they want to stay shut, let them. But at some point we can’t just keep printing money and kicking the bucket down the road. Hopefully there is a vaccine soon (God willing). If not, heard immunity is our best bet. It’s not fair, but such is life.

Agreed, but I don’t agree every business is essential. That being said, WDW, DCL, UO, and tourism, in general, is essential to FL.

 

[GoofGoof]

In my reviews of assorted COVID research, there seem to be two big scenarios where COVID spread would be a serious problem even with mask enforcement: theaters and restaurants. Both incentivize people to stay in the same place and breath the same air as many other people not in their party for an extended period of time. As long as you are moving through a space semi frequently, and everyone is wearing masks, you should be almost entirely protected. This is the stuff that makes me less nervous about the reopening.
However, what does make me nervous isn’t WDW itself, but the hundreds of hotels and businesses surrounding it (that many of these visitors will also visit) where rules are more lax and COVID is more likely to spread.

Agreed. Orange County did implement a mask requirement and the pull back on bars recently could help. The outdoor aspects of WDW, especially with masks, seem the least problematic.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

Can you please elaborate? Is this your own hunch or gathered from others?

Little of both, but more on the latter. I live in Orange County, it's getting crazy here. I was at a Walmart today no more than five miles from WDW that actively had people at the door enforcing masks. They had people walking around and making sure people were covering both mouth and nose. Today is the first time I have seen that at Walmart. Some Publix have been doing it for a week though.

 

[GoofGoof]

Little of both, but more on the latter. I live in Orange County, it's getting crazy here. I was at a Walmart today no more than five miles from WDW that actively had people at the door enforcing masks. They had people walking around and making sure people were covering both mouth and nose. Today is the first time I have seen that at Walmart. Some Publix have been doing it for a week though.

The more people get used to that the better chance Disney has to avoid non-compliance. It’s different for sure but you do get used to it.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

Agreed. Orange County did implement a mask requirement and the pull back on bars recently could help. The outdoor aspects of WDW, especially with masks, seem the least problematic.

If you are an Orange County local, you will know we have a wide variety of people here. We have the ones that will stay at home and all cost, the ones that will venture out for essentials wearing a mask, the ones that will go anywhere wearing a mask, the ones that will wear a mask over the mouth but keep their nose uncovered, and finally the ones that it is their god given constitutional right to not have to wear a mask. In my couple trips to Disney Springs over the last few weeks, I have seen most of them there. And they are NOT doing a good job at Springs enforcing the mask rule.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

The vast majority of the economy is re-open. Its not going to be possible for everything to re-open like it was before Covid. It’s not all or nothing. If 90% gets going thats pretty good. As we’ve seen recently packed bars are a problem. Can’t have that right now. Bars can open with physical distancing and masks for workers and capacity limits. It won’t be business as usual but it’s better than nothing.

The reality is that some stores at Springs will not reopen, and, as a matter of circumstance, many businesses, outside of WDW, will not either.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

The reality is that some stores at Springs will not reopen, and, as a matter of circumstance, many businesses, outside of WDW, will not either.

Some have opened and then decided to close on their own accord. That is a bad sign.