No, my estimates were based on knowing D23 members would take advantage of the 3 year contract and the numbers of people who go to Disney themeparks and movies. It is also a fact that almost every company will underestimate their predictions so their results look better. That does not mean they weren't based on a study but that they will always publicly estimate at the worst case scenario. In any case you can like it or not but my prediction was better than any study you reported. It does not make you wrong only that you looked at a study that was wrong. Too bad you can't just admit my estimate is now likely to be correct.
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Disney's Streaming Services: Disney+ (and Hulu, ESPN+, Star, & hotstar)
- Thread starter MisterPenguin
- Start date
Tony Perkis
Well-Known Member
I’m gonna let you in on a little secret: credible analysts rely on more than the surface level, which the survey organization you cited did.
Your method is based on enthusiasm for the product, not on any additional external or applicable factors.
No company underestimates their predictions in 3 years intervals. That’s irresponsible to their shareholders.
I don’t give credence to estimates based on rooting interests. That’s how “a blind squirrel finds a nut” applies.
My money is invested based on my estimates of what will happen. You can agree with it or not but you seem incapable of giving me any credit. I predicted 12 billion worldwide box office before Artimus Fowl was delayed and you refuse to give me any credit. I predicted Disney Plus would blow away the publicly stated prediction. I went out and
put my predictions in writing. I would think you would at least recognize that because I knew if they didn't beat or at least come close to my predictions I would look bad. I even debated you on Disney Plus and I know if I was horribly wrong you would rightfully come back and tell me I was wrong. I believe the difference between us is I can admit when I am wrong but you can't.
Tony Perkis
Well-Known Member
I don’t give predictions like your’s much credit because I don’t think they’re based on anything much beyond surface level research, and not really a deep dive into the numbers.
For example, in the box office thread, on the first page:
On its own, it’s not wrong, but it’s a banal prediction. Off the of my head, at the start of 2019, looking at the release schedule, I would have predicted:
-Endgame: $2.5b
-Lion King: $1.5b
-Toy Story 4: $1b
-Star Wars: $1.5b
-Aladdin: $750m
-Frozen 2: $1.5b
-Dumbo: $500m
-Captain Marvel: $1b
Most overachieved, but I could have guessed close to $10 billion as early as January 2019 without any thorough research. Those are just easy predictions, not based on any unique research process.
And quite frankly, I don’t care much about your $7 billion discrepancy from your first prediction to your most recent. Adjustments happen all the time based on new information.
I find your future analysis in streaming to be highly flawed, because you don’t look at details that could affect future performance, which is another example of predicting based on rooted interest and example.
You keep touting Disney+’s subscription count, and the numbers are great and they’re clearly over-performing, but you’re not really looking at some clear red flags, which makes me think that you believe future performance will be more akin to that of a straight line on a graph, and not a more rounded trajectory that is far more realistic.
You have ignored the study, the one you were touting, when it mentioned that over 1/3 of subscribers are likely Verizon customers taking advantage of the free year subscription (which is my scenario). This could lead to a substantial drop off in subscriber count. They’ll still retain a net positive subscription increase, but at a much, much lower pace that quarter.
You ignored the study when it claimed that there is an 80% overlap between Netflix/Disney+ customers. That doesn’t mean 80% of Netflix subscribers also have D+, but the opposite: 80% of D+ customers also have Netflix, which, if consistent, will not lead lead to the great fall of Netflix anytime soon, let alone to third place by 2021. The numbers do not support that crazy hypothesis.
So, instead of decrying about not being given credit for being ahead of the curve, I suggest reading the contents of the studies you’ve posted and do a deeper dive to your futures predictions.
It’s kind of laughable that you want credit for being right about Disney+ hitting 2024 expectations by 2021 when it’s 2019.
I agee with you that 10 billion was an easy guess based upon the movies. That is one of the reasons I lambasted CNBC when they said Disney would do 9 Billion in July. It was clear that 11 billion would be reached. You can say I was basing my number on optimism but I wasn't because I always expected 7 Disney movies to reach the billion dollar mark. I expected Aladdin to reach it and loved that movie. Did End Game do better than I thought? Yes, but Dumbo and Malisifant did a little worse that I expected. So I did not go out on a ledge like I did with my Disney Plus Estimate but based on my education and person analysis I made my prediction of 90 million worldwide customers. Keep in mind Hotstat, Disney's steaming service in India, has 300 million, Hulu has 30 million US customers, and ESPN Plus has over 3 million subscribers. Is it unreasonable to expect a small percentage of Hotstar's India customers to signup over the next 2 years? Just 10% would be 30 million or 1/3 of my 90 million prediction.
doctornick
Well-Known Member
I get that, but... why not roll out What If... early then? That series would not have the same issues as the actors can come at different times to record lines (it's animated) and doesn't require filming. And since it is individual independant episodes, not a continuous story, they could have completed some of the episodes and released them and still released more later.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
"From All of Us to All of You" and "The Small One" should have been uploaded in time for this Christmas.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
Animation, even short form TV animation, can have a production timeline 3-4 times that of live action. There is no such thing as doing "one episode at a time" in animation, either you produce them in blocks of 50-100 minutes+ at a time or it's not worth the money or effort. Every single thing in animation is essentially a labor intensive special effect.
Tony Perkis
Well-Known Member
Disney+ Adds Live-Action X-Men Movies in Canada
Ever since the launch of Disney+ last month, Marvel fans have been hoping to see the live-action X-Men franchise make its way to the new streaming service. The majority of the films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe are available to stream on the site, which was always expected since Marvel...
comicbook.com
What will be coming to Disney+ in 2020
Disney+ will be adding dozens of original content in 2020 as well as TV series and films from the Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic libraries.
disneydiary.com
Woah Togo is actually getting great reviews!
www.rottentomatoes.com
Togo (2019) | Rotten Tomatoes
"Togo" is the true story set in the winter of 1925 of champion dogsled trainer Leonhard Seppala and his lead sled dog, Togo. Together, they embark on an adventure across the treacherous terrain of Alaska to transport medicine to a small town.
www.rottentomatoes.com
Disney continues to push Disney Plus subscriptions as a Christmas Present. I have also seen many sites that encourage it as a great deal and one of the best last minute gift ideas. So with that said, and the great first month of signups, how many customers will Disney Plus have on December 31, 2019? We all know they are blowing away their original estimes of 30 million US sometime in 2024, but the question should be will they reach that number in 2019? I still think that is a stretch and that they will now reach it during 2020 but it is actually possible that they can reach it in 2019. If they did actually end November with 24 million customers signed up in one month, then getting 6 million more in the second month is certainly possible especially with all the Mandalorian buzz. For the record, I still am staying with my end of 2021 estimate for reaching 90 million worldwide customers and will admit I was wrong when they blow by that number.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
There is a chance they could react that number in 2019 between the holiday and people that chose to wait until they could binge things like the Mandalorian. However there are people that wait until January to start annual subscriptions in addition to folks that are just traveling/busy over this season and don't have the time to watch much so they hold off until later.
If they don't make the 30m number by January 1st it will probably be shortly after or just before their next big original drop.
david10225
Active Member
I too was looking for Small One. It was quite a moving short.
Tried watching Togo. No idea how it scored such good reviews on rotten tomatoes was awful. I couldnt even finish it. No wonder it went straight to Disney+ you can tell it had a lower budget. No idea why Willem Dafoe agreed to do it the pay must have been good. So many good actors in this appear in the background its weird.
I think the reason everyone was so far off on their estimates is because they tried to estimate the signups based on how Netflix and other streaming services did. I based my estimate of them reaching 90 million worldwide by the end of 2021 based on those reports and shortening it by 2 years based on my conversations with people at WDW in September and people I know. The so called experts missed the human element, the crowd effect and Disney's marketing power. It was always clear to me based on my economic knowledge that using Netflix's growth alone as a baseline for growth missed the fact that the market is different today than when Netflix started. The studies also put too much emphasis on families with children and not enough on adults and grandparents.
Looking forward to the quarterly conference call, I am actually more interested in the Hulu, Hulu with live TV and ESPN Plus numbers than I am with the Disney Plus numbers. The crazy thing is with Hotstar adding Disney Plus to their service and expanding to other Asian Countries Disney Plus could have well over 100 million customers next year since Hotstar has way over 300 million customers.
DiscoveryTank
New Member
That is a interesting problem. I run into some streaming problems on my Xbox. I think it was because the software was not made to run on devices built for games. Roku was meant for streaming but that is my opinion
5thGenTexan
Well-Known Member
We are finally on board. My wife paid for an account yesterday and I stopped by today to pick up a Roku stick. So far so good. 2019 and my first time streaming shows.