Disney's Streaming Services: Disney+ (and Hulu, ESPN+, Star, & hotstar)

Tony Perkis

Well-Known Member
Now that Disney is passing the 10 billion dollar mark worldwide. I looked back and you were right, it wasn't in June I made my prediction it was on May 5 that I predicted Disney would break 12 billion for the year. The big thing to remember is Artimus Fowl was postponed after that, so of course without that movie my prediction would be under the 12 billion and close to 11.5. That is a much better prediction than most others and ahead of the curve as you put it.
Actually, this puts your predictive analysis more in question.

First, you said Disney would pass $12b.

Then, you downgraded them by $3b.

Then, when it was convenient, you updated after everyone else did as well.

It’s almost like you make things up as you go along.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Actually, this puts your predictive analysis more in question.

First, you said Disney would pass $12b.

Then, you downgraded them by $3b.

Then, when it was convenient, you updated after everyone else did as well.

It’s almost like you make things up as you go along.
I never ever lowered my prediction. I did make lots of posts criticizing CNBCS 9 billion prediction saying it was grossly low. Read my posts and stop accusing me of saying something I didn't.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster
Now they can cut out the middle man, and just fold it into the Night at the Museum series.

Disney's X* Comes to Life!


*toys, furniture (previously household servants), cars, video game characters, computer programs, museum exhibits, cartoon characters, hand puppets, animals
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Nobody is doubting the launch numbers were outstanding, but there is still nothing reasonable to assume beating Disney’s own internal 5 year outlook by 3 years is realistic, let alone conservative.

That assumes that the launch totals are a sustainable growth expectation, which it almost assuredly is not.

That’s cheerleading, not analysis.
I thought you might be interested in the Credit Suisse views. They are now predicting 20 million subscribers by the end of 2019. https://bgr.com/2019/12/09/disney-plus-app-20-million-subscribers-analyst-estimate/
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster






 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
It definitely feels a bit odd that they weren't able to spin up the Marvel output a little bit sooner. I definitely have no problem with the 4 series a year pace when they do come, but it's going to be a while.

Considering they had no issue getting a well produced Star Wars TV show ready for launch, I wonder what the hold up was.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
So they finished filming season 1 of Love, Simon, but we have to wait until the FALL to watch it? 9 or 10 months from now?

Yes, I know there's post-production work to be done, but we're talking about a teen dramedy, not an FX heavy space adventure.

This is on top of the long waits for Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Season 2 of Mandalorian etc.

It's disappointing to have such a slow roll out of original content when Disney wants your money on a monthly basis.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
It definitely feels a bit odd that they weren't able to spin up the Marvel output a little bit sooner. I definitely have no problem with the 4 series a year pace when they do come, but it's going to be a while.

Considering they had no issue getting a well produced Star Wars TV show ready for launch, I wonder what the hold up was.
The Mandalorian relies on a small cast with single (so far) use guest stars, combined with well used limited sets and the ability to have most of Lucasfilm's resources at their call. When your only lead doesn't need to even be on set most of the time with a co-star that's a puppet ... your schedule can move very fast. The show was designed from the ground up for speed.

Marvel unfortunately has to play by movie studio rules. Just trying to schedule 2 or 3 in demand actors to into a single 6-8 week filming window can be difficult. They're trying to do that for multiple series ... while potential competing with their own movie filming needs.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Is Togo the live-action remake of Balto?

1576640507452.png
 

seascape

Well-Known Member

Didn't netflix just recently say that they saw no impact from the launch? I guess that was bs. lol
I love it. I was criticized for predicting Disney Plus would blow away their absurdly low estimates. My prediction was they would beat their estimates for 2024 by the end of 2021. If that estimate is correct Disney Plus will end 2019 with over 25 million North American customers and that is not counting New Zealand and Australia. Once they roll out in Europe and Asia they will add millions more. I wonder if Tony will admit my conservative prediction was reasonable.
 

Tony Perkis

Well-Known Member

Didn't netflix just recently say that they saw no impact from the launch? I guess that was bs. lol
Or, and hear me out on this, additional time has passed (about a month) since the previous estimates, and which created a new impact on rivals.
 

Tony Perkis

Well-Known Member
I love it. I was criticized for predicting Disney Plus would blow away their absurdly low estimates. My prediction was they would beat their estimates for 2024 by the end of 2021. If that estimate is correct Disney Plus will end 2019 with over 25 million North American customers and that is not counting New Zealand and Australia. Once they roll out in Europe and Asia they will add millions more. I wonder if Tony will admit my conservative prediction was reasonable.

Why would I admit something when it hasn’t happened? Additionally, your logic has many additional factors that’s need be analyzed further.

“About one-third (34%) of Disney Plus’ U.S. customers — or 8 million as of the end of November — are on one-year-free offer from Verizon for certain customers, while the remaining 66% are on paid plans, Cowen’s analysts estimated. It’s possible Disney Plus could see a tsunami of churn once the Verizon freebie deals roll off in late 2020. In addition, the Cowen survey data indicated there were about 19.4 million consumers who subscribe to both Netflix and Disney Plus, implying an 80% overlap between the services.”


When will you admit your prediction that Netflix would drop to third in the streaming wars was unreasonable?
 
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