Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[CaptainAmerica]

But I’m not sure why the billion-dollar milestone is being treated as the only measure of success.

Because they spent like $350 million to make and market it. It needs to make hundreds of millions of dollars just to break even.

If the movie had a $100 million production budget and a $50 marketing budget, then this weekend would be considered a resounding success.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

TLM's opening weekend is almost identical to Aladdin's

It's not close to Aladdin. $163.8m versus $213.5m.

It’s the fifth biggest Memorial Day weekend opening ever.

It's also something like the fifth highest-budget Memorial Day weekend opening ever. You can't just look at the revenue side, you have to look at revenue net of costs.

Yes, it probably won’t make a billion, but I don’t see how one can dispute that it’s doing very well with US audiences.

Nobody is dispute that it's doing very well with US audiences. It's a moderate-to-good success in the US. But the size of its failure internationally is remarkable.

 

[BrianLo]

How is Scott declaring the domestic take front loaded? You sort of need a second weekend to occur.

 

[Tha Realest]

How is Scott declaring the domestic take front loaded? You sort of need a second weekend to occur.

Because it continued to drop off day over day through the weekend (e.g., front loaded)

 

[Tha Realest]

It’s the fifth biggest Memorial Day weekend opening ever. Yes, it probably won’t make a billion, but I don’t see how one can dispute that it’s doing very well with US audiences.

I don’t care whether it makes a billion. It won’t, but that’s immaterial.

Will it make a profit? And how does it perform relative to similar movies (Disney live-action)? On both scores, I don’t believe you’ll be able to call this a success

In terms of domestic numbers - this film’s strength - it doesn’t compare well to others (courtesy of BoxOfficePro.com):

Compared to other notable Disney remakes and reimaginings, it opened below some films it was expected to match or beat, including Alice in Wonderland and The Jungle Book:

• -7% below 2016’s The Jungle Book ($103.2M)
• -17% below 2010’s Alice in Wonderland($116.1M)
• -45% below 2017’s Beauty and the Beast($174.7M)
• -50% below 2019’s The Lion King ($191.7M)

Internationally the numbers are even more stark:

Mermaid debuted with $68.3M overseas and $163.8M globally. That’s:

• -53% behind the global opening of 2017’s Beauty and the Beast ($350.0M)
• -20% behind the global opening of 2019’s Aladdin ($207.1M)

In particular, Mermaid opens with a weak $2.5M in China. Compared to the China openings for other Disney remakes or reimaginings, that’s:

• -95% below The Lion King ($54.1M)
• -94% below The Jungle Book ($48.8M)
• -94% below Beauty and the Beast ($44.5M)
• -86% below Aladdin ($18.5M)

The film needs to make $750 WW to break even. I don’t believe it will get there. Is it possible this film’s box office, like Ariel, will sprout legs? Perhaps. But the low opening weekend, tapering box office each day over the weekend, and impossibly soft international numbers are pretty strong headwinds against a chance at profitability.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Apparently, they’re spending a whopping $80 million promoting this one.

Yes, the propaganda, I mean advertising, was layered on thick with this one.

 

[Tha Realest]

Because they spent like $350 million to make and market it. It needs to make hundreds of millions of dollars just to break even.

If the movie had a $100 million production budget and a $50 marketing budget, then this weekend would be considered a resounding success.

Exactly this. The SWGS had multiple dozens of people paying a few thousand dollars a night for the experience. That’s a lot of money! But not relative to the costs of running the experience - so it will soon no longer exist.

 

[BlakeW39]

I hope everyone who was excited for the film enjoyed it. Honestly, if you liked this movie, power to you. But I still honestly hope this film loses money at the BO lol. This film being a success would just be like a big neon sign saying to movie studios that we want more artless, cash grab remakes.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I don’t care whether it makes a billion. It won’t, but that’s immaterial.

Will it make a profit? And how does it perform relative to similar movies (Disney live-action)? On both scores, I don’t believe you’ll be able to call this a success

In terms of domestic numbers - this film’s strength - it doesn’t compare well to others (courtesy of BoxOfficePro.com):



Internationally the numbers are even more stark:



The film needs to make $750 WW to break even. I don’t believe it will get there. Is it possible this film’s box office, like Ariel, will sprout legs? Perhaps. But the low opening weekend, tapering box office each day over the weekend, and impossibly soft international numbers are pretty strong headwinds against a chance at profitability.

It is unfortunate films are rated success or failure solely based on Box office numbers. For instance, people that are satisfied / happy with having seen the film versus those that experience buyer's remorse and wish they could unsee what they saw. Either way money is made, and success or failure is declared. Since box office numbers are the measure, I believe the numbers on Tuesday following the long weekend release will be telling as to whether this film has (sorry) legs or not.

 

[Tha Realest]

It is unfortunate films are rated success or failure solely based on Box office numbers. For instance, people that are satisfied / happy with having seen the film versus those that experience buyer's remorse and wish they could unsee what they saw. Either way money is made, and success or failure is declared. Since box office numbers are the measure, I believe the numbers on Tuesday following the long weekend release will be telling as to whether this film has (sorry) legs or not.

I like plenty of films that have not been box office successes. Generally those films have given us something new.
It also used to be that a box office failure could be offset by home video or rental revenue. Both of those things are severely undercut by the advent of D+

 

[BrianLo]

Because it continued to drop off day over day through the weekend (e.g., front loaded)

View attachment 719321

This is how nearly every movies first weekend looks. Friday often includes some Thursday figures. It looks better than the typical Marvel / Star Wars fare that tends to post dramatically high Fridays.

I just think his comments are trying to prognosticate legs based on the first weekend, which seems silly. Or making an observation over kind of nothing. Yes Scott, water is wet.

The conclusion is more easily drawn with ten days of box office figures.

 

[Californian Elitist]

I hope everyone who was excited for the film enjoyed it. Honestly, if you liked this movie, power to you. But I still honestly hope this film loses money at the BO lol. This film being a success would just be like a big neon sign saying to movie studios that we want more artless, cash grab remakes.

This movie losing money at the box office will do absolutely nothing to stop the remakes coming this year and in the future. The countless live-actions that Disney has already announced are still coming, Dune: Part 2 will still be released in November, Blade is still scheduled for 2024, and more. These movies will continue to be produced and people will still pay money to see them. You’re better off just not seeing them instead of hoping that some big change will occur. It won’t.

LOL.

 

[BrianLo]

For the record I think the International take is settled. Profitability comes down to domestic legs and probably even still will be limping on merchandise.

The Interational performance is weaker than I expected, but maybe we’ve been over conflating Little Mermaid as a IP because of the VHS boom. It may be the weakest of the four major renaissance films.

 

[BlakeW39]

This movie losing money at the box office will do absolutely nothing to stop the remakes coming this year and in the future. The countless live-actions that Disney has already announced are still coming, Dune: Part 2 will still be released in November, Blade is still scheduled for 2024, and more. These movies will continue to be produced and people will still pay money to see them. You’re better off just not seeing them instead of hoping that some big change will occur. It won’t.

LOL.

Entirely baseless, but I'm glad you're having a good time.

So if Disney's current business strategies fail... they won't change direction at all. Interesting, maybe you should write for the New York Times

 

[Californian Elitist]

Entirely baseless, but I'm glad you're having a good time.

So if Disney's current business strategies fail... they won't change direction at all. Interesting, maybe you should write for the New York Times

I’ve already been through this with you, so I’ll keep it brief and just repeat what I already said, and commentary is supposed to be restricted for those who have seen the movie already (I’ll be seeing it soon). Just don’t watch the movies. They’ve been remaking these movies for years. Surely, they should have learned a lesson by now, right? People want art, right? Huh… Why are these movies still being cranked out then? Not actually looking for answers to those questions.

I already write for the New York Times. Good day to you.

 

[DKampy]

Except originsnal movies sto

I hope everyone who was excited for the film enjoyed it. Honestly, if you liked this movie, power to you. But I still honestly hope this film loses money at the BO lol. This film being a success would just be like a big neon sign saying to movie studios that we want more artless, cash grab remakes.

Except original movies make even less money… the masses have spoken…. They only want recognizable IP

 

[BlakeW39]

I’ve already been through this with you,

I actually never said much to you before, but let me make this clear:

hoping a bad product sells poorly is completely normal and the responsibility of a consumer.

furthermore. you have no basis upon which to suggest Disney's current business strategies will stay exactly the same despite diminishing financial returns. this is unlikely and I will be here to quote you in 5 years when you are proven incorrect.

 

[BlakeW39]

Except originsnal movies sto

I don't know what this^^ means, but

Except original movies make even less money… the masses have spoken…. They only want recognizable IP

this is not correct.

 

[Californian Elitist]

I actually never said much to you before, but let me make this clear:

hoping a bad product sells poorly is completely normal and the responsibility of a consumer.

furthermore. you have no basis upon which to suggest Disney's current business strategies will stay exactly the samr despite diminishing financial returns. this is unlikely and I will be here to quote you in 5 years when you are proven incorrect.

The mods have asked us to keep the discussion in this thread for those who have actually seen the movie. When is your viewing scheduled?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Except original movies make even less money… the masses have spoken…. They only want recognizable IP

They need to stop giving $350 million budgets and 2:15 run times to children's movies.