Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[Jedijax719]

Trying to predict WW box office these days is like trying to predict how a pet goldfish will survive on Mars. It's really kinda stupid these days with China being what it is and the rest of the world being so fickle.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

Apparently, they’re spending a whopping $80 million promoting this one.

 

[BlakeW39]

Apparently, they’re spending a whopping $80 million promoting this one.

Tbh that number doesn't surprise me. The marketing for this film has been absolutely insane.

 

[TalkingHead]

There may be pent-up demand for a girl-friendly property that’s made for the younger demo. Buy there’s also more subtext to the question of international business for this specific production.

As I said a couple weeks ago.

 

[erasure fan1]

Apparently, they’re spending a whopping $80 million promoting this one.

That actually seems a bit low. I would have guessed more in the range of 100 maybe 110. They went hard and heavy on this one.

 

[BlakeW39]

The global box office is tracking at about 75% of Aladdin. It will not come close to $1 billion. $800 million would be a miracle. Break-even is likely over $600 million.

My guess is it finishes below 800mil. Which is insane given the marketing which went into this. Insane from a financial perspective at least, because this was a pretty easy thing to predict really. Not sure why anyone thought audiences would turn out for this film enough to push it past the b mark.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Apparently, they’re spending a whopping $80 million promoting this one.

With a $250M budget, the Hollywood expectation is that they spent $125M on marketing.

Maybe more since it's a tentpole.

 

[LittleBuford]

Not sure why anyone thought audiences would turn out for this film enough to push it past the b mark.

US audiences are lapping it up so far.

 

[BlakeW39]

US audiences are lapping it up so far.

Define 'lapping it up'

& the US isn't enough to push the film past $1bil.

 

[LittleBuford]

Define 'lapping it up'

The figures and audience ratings speak for themselves.

& the US isn't enough to push the film past $1bil.

Indeed. But I’m not sure why the billion-dollar milestone is being treated as the only measure of success. Given all the factors working against it, I’m delighted with how well this film is doing.

 

[BlakeW39]

The figures and audience ratings speak for themselves.

I know, but lapping it up is subjective. It's done stronger in the US but not billion-dollar strong.

Indeed. But I’m not sure why the billion-dollar milestone is being treated as the only measure of success. Given all the factors working against it, I’m delighted with how well this film is doing.

What factors are working against this film? It's a blockbuster movie coming from the most successful media brand on earth with a huge marketing budget based off an extremely popular intellectual property. Sounds like a pretty big headstart to me. This film is anything but an underdog

Anyways, $1bn isn't the only measure of success for a movie. People around here just thought it would make 1bn, and I found that strange because it never felt like a film that would do quite that well.

 

[Chi84]

I know, but lapping it up is subjective. It's done stronger in the US but not billion-dollar strong.



What factors are working against this film? It's a blockbuster movie coming from the most successful media brand on earth with a huge marketing budget based off an extremely popular intellectual property. Sounds like a pretty big headstart to me. This film is anything but an underdog

Anyways, $1bn isn't the only measure of success. People around here just thought it would make 1bn, and I found that strange because it never felt like a film that would do quite that well.

There were definitely factors working against it, particularly overseas. But my earlier posts regarding them were deleted so I think the subject strays into prohibited social/political issues.

 

[MagicHappens1971]

Worldwide Box Office is at $185M as we close out the weekend, according to Box Office Mojo (link)

 

[Jedijax719]

I read a quote about the movie's overseas numbers. It was basically " the numbers are SO low that the reason has to be very simple". I think there is a lot of truth about that. I have some theories, but I would only share those in private messages, not here. It's unfortunate circumstances of events in the past 3 years that may have heavily contributed.

 

[LittleBuford]

What factors are working against this film?

Multiple grievances stirred up by the so-called Culture War. But I’m glad to see I overestimated their impact.

 

[Tha Realest]

US audiences are lapping it up so far.

The figures and audience ratings speak for themselves.


Indeed. But I’m not sure why the billion-dollar milestone is being treated as the only measure of success. Given all the factors working against it, I’m delighted with how well this film is doing.

But they aren’t. With the budget of this film and the marketing behind it, it is underperforming relative to other films. If you don’t want films with nigh unattainable profitability, then they should stop budgeting them to a point where a BREAK EVEN point is $750M WW.

 

[Tha Realest]

TLM's opening weekend is almost identical to Aladdin's, despite a higher Thursday preview. However, it is extremely doubtful that TLM will have the same multiplier as Aladdin's (3.9Xopening weekend). But let'see how the following weekends go.

TLM, in essence, is less of a 4-quadrant movie than Aladdin or Lion King. But then again, one can say that about Beauty and the Beast. However, BatB still had the Beast and Gaston.

Not to change the subject too much, but Snow White is DOA. Not sure why they are even doing that one. It's not a renaissance film. Nobody was around when it came out or has any real affinity toward it. It isn't going to have the 7 dwarves and won't even have Prince Charming. Actually, I am not even sure what it is going to be about!

1) inflation
2) box office math has changed
3) This does not star Will Smith, who has some of the strongest international box office draws ever.

 

[LittleBuford]

But they aren’t.

It’s the fifth biggest Memorial Day weekend opening ever. Yes, it probably won’t make a billion, but I don’t see how one can dispute that it’s doing very well with US audiences.

 

[Chi84]

It’s the fifth biggest Memorial Day weekend opening ever. Yes, it probably won’t make a billion, but I don’t see how one can dispute that it’s doing very well with US audiences.

Some people don’t like Disney’s choices these days in just about anything. So whatever isn’t an overwhelming success for Disney provides validation of sorts.

 

[Disney Analyst]

As expected. But nice to see the sites issuing warnings about the unusual activity.