Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[Disstevefan1]

It’s funny how profitability used to mean box office but has suddenly been expanded to include streaming, rentals, merchandise, etc… the sad thing is even with all that ancillary income it’s still questionable whether it’ll break even. All we can do is speculate because Disneys never going to release all those internal sales numbers.

With this new standard of including every possible avenue of income I doubt many movies have ever lost money.

I totally agree, at the box office, unless a movie makes much more money than (double) what was formally said to have cost to make and market, we will never know if that movie actually made money, even in the long run.

Since there is no real way to know if a movie will ever make money, creators will be free to create whatever they want at whatever cost, and this for sure will continue.

And it seems companies are fine with that. It's a cost of doing business.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The average Hollywood estimates are $560M to break even for TLM, it’s going to come close to that if not surpass it.

So with that said it’s very likely they have already recouped all costs when adding in all other revenue sources tied to the movie.

The $560M estimate is probably low (no one really knows), but at this point, who cares.

It is what it is, and TWDC is happy with it and will keep making live action remakes.

TLM is at $524,985,903 so far.

 

[Dranth]

It did, and it resulted in only a themed bathroom as a result. And still made $60 million more than TLM. But, I also am not sure it had the expectations of this. Even people like me who had no desire to see this and are sick of the remakes figured this would pull in a billion. There's a real shock factor with this (honestly I didn't follow boards back then so I can't say for sure if Tangled was the same).

My personal belief is that those who thought this would come close or even cross the billion-dollar mark was caught off guard by the overseas performance. The US numbers are good and, in the past, would put it within striking distance. However, it flopped in pretty much all of Asia and didn't do much better in a few other parts of the world.

With a more "normal" foreign box office this comes close to a billion if not break it.

 

[Disney Irish]

The $560M estimate is probably low (no one really knows), but at this point, who cares.

It is what it is, and TWDC is happy with it and will keep making live action remakes.

TLM is at $524,985,903 so far.

Honestly I don't think there was ever really any doubt of them continuing to do the live action remakes. Some just hoped TLM would fail enough to get Disney to pause or reconsider them. But the reality we all know is that Disney is going to continue doing these until they mine through all the classic animated IP.

 

[Dranth]

The compulsory part and the stage already being set for D+ to be a loser for the company, at least up to 2024 is what sets this apart, to me.

Just to add to what was already said, this is pretty normal in my experience. While a small businesses can typically start to turn a profit in the first two to three years, it isn't uncommon for large ventures to take longer. In my experience it has always fallen in the 3-5 year range with the more expensive units/companies coming in at the tail end of that.

If D+ ends up in the black by the end of next year that puts it at five years, which seems normal to me and is when they said it would turn a profit from the start.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Honestly I don't think there was ever really any doubt of them continuing to do the live action remakes. Some just hoped TLM would fail enough to get Disney to pause or reconsider them. But the reality we all know is that Disney is going to continue doing these until they mine through all the classic animated IP.

Agreed, they will continue to do the live action remakes and hope for the best.

As we see, TWDC has no actual requirement or expectation that they must make money.

 

[Disney Irish]

Agreed, they will continue to do the live action remakes and hope for the best.

As we see, TWDC has no actual requirement or expectation that they must make money.

I don't agree that they have no actual expectation to they make money at the box office. I'm sure they have all the expectation that they will make truck loads of money at the box office, especially the more the popular IP.

I think we just have to put it into perspective, that Disney knows how to continue to make additional revenue from a film despite potential box office disappointments. Thus driving the movie into potential profitability after its left the theaters.

 

[MrPromey]

Just to add to what was already said, this is pretty normal in my experience. While a small businesses can typically start to turn a profit in the first two to three years, it isn't uncommon for large ventures to take longer. In my experience it has always fallen in the 3-5 year range with the more expensive units/companies coming in at the tail end of that.

If D+ ends up in the black by the end of next year that puts it at five years, which seems normal to me and is when they said it would turn a profit from the start.

Based on this message, it seems you were missing the point I was making which was not this.

Pulling that one line out of context from the whole discussion, I can see how that could happen but that D+ is losing money in-and-of-itself wasn't what I was talking about, at all.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I don't agree that they have no actual expectation to they make money at the box office. I'm sure they have all the expectation that they will make truck loads of money at the box office, especially the more the popular IP.

I think we just have to put it into perspective, that Disney knows how to continue to make additional revenue from a film despite potential box office disappointments. Thus driving the movie into potential profitability after its left the theaters.

I am sure TWDC folks in the meetings totally say they are going to make truckloads of money no matter what they personally think inside.

 

[Disney Irish]

I am sure TWDC folks in the meetings totally say they are going to make truckloads of money no matter what they personally think inside.

Welcome to Hollywood, where exec's think stuff they make will bring in truckloads of money. This isn't just a Disney thing.

 

[erasure fan1]

Honestly I don't think there was ever really any doubt of them continuing to do the live action remakes. Some just hoped TLM would fail enough to get Disney to pause or reconsider them. But the reality we all know is that Disney is going to continue doing these until they mine through all the classic animated IP.

And then they'll start over again. Cinderella, but in the style of Frozens CG... Of course that's a ways off as we will have to suffer through all the pixar and CG Disney animated films first. But then bring on the CG remake of the live action remake era. It makes my head hurt just thinking about it.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Welcome to Hollywood, where exec's think stuff they make will bring in truckloads of money. This isn't just a Disney thing.

Totally True - See The Flash and Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

 

[Sir_Cliff]

I don't agree that they have no actual expectation to they make money at the box office. I'm sure they have all the expectation that they will make truck loads of money at the box office, especially the more the popular IP.

I think we just have to put it into perspective, that Disney knows how to continue to make additional revenue from a film despite potential box office disappointments. Thus driving the movie into potential profitability after its left the theaters.

Honestly, the remakes are probably still about as close to a sure thing in terms of box office revenue that Disney has other than Marvel. If TLM ends up being a disappointment, it will be a disappointment that brought in over $500million (possibly closer to $600million) at the box office. They may have to adjust budgets somewhat for future films, but that kind of result is not likely to make them think they need to stop remaking films and concentrate on far riskier original concepts. Hopefully Moana is the film that does that... or they come to their senses and pause that project!

 

[Disstevefan1]

Honestly, the remakes are probably still about as close to a sure thing in terms of box office revenue that Disney has

Sure, they make revenue.

Just not enough to recoup what it costs to make and market.

But they know this going in I presume.

 

[LittleBuford]

Hopefully Moana is the film that does that... or they come to their senses and pause that project!

I’m not looking forward to the live-action Moana either, but yesterday I discovered that a friend of mine who’s never seen any of the other remakes is beyond excited about it. She totally brushed off my objection that Moana was too recent to be remade; all that mattered to her was that she would be getting more of an IP she loves.

I have no idea whether others share her view, but it was interesting to hear nonetheless.

 

[Dranth]

Based on this message, it seems you were missing the point I was making which was not this.

Pulling that one line out of context from the whole discussion, I can see how that could happen but that D+ is losing money in-and-of-itself wasn't what I was talking about, at all.

Wasn't meant to be out of context, that is why I wrote "Just to add to what was already said.." I was just pointing out that in addition to the accounting practices they are using being normal, it is also normal to be losing money on a new venture like this for a while. I wasn't making a judgement or assumption or even trying to comment on your thoughts about how they are going about it or how it impacts the parks. If it came across that way, it wasn't meant to.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The $560M estimate is probably low (no one really knows), but at this point, who cares.

It is what it is, and TWDC is happy with it and will keep making live action remakes.

TLM is at $524,985,903 so far.

I doubt Disney will be happy with the results even if it does break even in theaters and make money on the back end.

It was forecast to make a half billion dollars in profit in the theaters AND all that same money on the back end, it may end up making them money overall but it was filmed with the intention of making a ton of money, like all the other renaissance remakes.

When I used to bartend my expectation was to make $300 in tips every night, if I made $100 I made money buy I certainly wasn’t happy about it.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I doubt Disney will be happy with the results even if it does break even in theaters and make money on the back end.

It was forecast to make a half billion dollars in profit in the theaters AND all that same money on the back end, it may end up making them money overall but it was filmed with the intention of making a ton of money, like all the other renaissance remakes.

When I used to bartend my expectation was to make $300 in tips every night, if I made $100 I made money buy I certainly wasn’t happy about it.

I think TWDC really does think TLM is a success.

TWDC will continue to create live action remakes.

 

[LittleBuford]

I doubt Disney will be happy with the results even if it does break even in theaters and make money on the back end.

It was forecast to make a half billion dollars in profit in the theaters AND all that same money on the back end, it may end up making them money overall but it was filmed with the intention of making a ton of money, like all the other renaissance remakes.

When I used to bartend my expectation was to make $300 in tips every night, if I made $100 I made money buy I certainly wasn’t happy about it.

Yes, but the numbers, while disappointing, aren’t going to discourage them from making further remakes, because the film’s failure outside the US is clearly an aberration tied very much to the controversies surrounding this specific project.

 

[MrPromey]

Wasn't meant to be out of context, that is why I wrote "Just to add to what was already said.." I was just pointing out that in addition to the accounting practices they are using being normal, it is also normal to be losing money on a new venture like this for a while. I wasn't making a judgement or assumption or even trying to comment on your thoughts about how they are going about it or how it impacts the parks. If it came across that way, it wasn't meant to.

Oh, no - I didn't take you as doing it on purpose. I typed... too much yesterday.

But when I brought that up, it was in reference to how it appeared to give them a nice little way to "make money" for other parts of the company while it didn't really matter that they were losing money, themselves. For instance, LFL getting something like Willow green-lit because D+ didn't necessarily have a choice on that, only for it to be off D+ a few months later.

That worked out great as a little bump for LFL who might not have found any willing partners in the wider world for a new spinoff series from a movie released in the 80's that wasn't really a franchise.

It's also convenient that D+ quickly shelved it here in 2023 when they're still allowed to lose money.

I mean, if it had hit - great and they have a new franchise to milk but it clearly didn't and they wasted no time iceboxing it. I'm sure people with residuals weren't thrilled but LFL got paid so it was probably good on paper for them, right?

But either way, it was no-risk in 2022-2023 when the loss could be hung around the neck of D+.

Kind of makes me wonder if that would have gotten made during D+'s future "profitable" stage...

Likewise, D+ can't afford to cover their own payroll but they can find $100 million to pay for streaming rights to TLM which takes that to profitability for the studios who are under much heavier scrutiny to perform than D+ is at the moment.*

Not saying any of this is illegal or anything (Hollywood accounting and so on) - just noting that it's possible D+, in the short term, may be giving Disney Co. an opportunity for some unique creative accounting and wondering what happens next year when that opportunity closes.

Maybe that's when the parks roll out G+x to pick up the slack?

*To be clear, I think Disney could have shopped streaming rights for TLM around and probably gotten a pretty good deal so I'm not trying to use that as some "smoking gun" example - just pointing out how one part of Disney paying another part of Disney with money the first part doesn't even have somehow makes that other part profitable... Which I'd like to see someone pull off with their own household budgeting.