Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[Casper Gutman]

The compulsory part and the stage already being set for D+ to be a loser for the company, at least up to 2024 is what sets this apart, to me.

On the other side of the form a bunch of us have been grumbling for years now about how it's been a money pit and how that seems to impact our favorite part of the company - how it "sponsors" a day at the parks for instance with money they are siphoning off the parks to help prop it up among other things...

But now it seems like at least a part of that "pit" could be a little bit of accounting sleight-of-hand, to me. Maybe Netflix would have passed on She Hulk. Did D+ have a choice? They probably would have lapped up everything Star Wars but would they have been receptive to a series based on a single movie by the same studio that most younger people have never heard of?

Doesn't matter because it got made and LF got paid, right?

Given this conversation, it seems like the potential for D+ losses (in the short term, only) may have been more of a potential opportunity for the company, especially given COVID.

Then again, I'm not discounting that I may be losing my mind.

View attachment 728152

I feel like this could be the plot of a movie if I can figure out how to get someone to die in the middle of all of this under suspicious circumstances.

“Hollywood Accounting!”

 

[Disney Irish]

The compulsory part and the stage already being set for D+ to be a loser for the company, at least up to 2024 is what sets this apart, to me.

On the other side of the forum a bunch of us have been grumbling for years now about how it's been a money pit and how that seems to impact our favorite part of the company - how it "sponsors" a day at the parks for instance with money they are siphoning off the parks to help prop it up among other things...

But now it seems like at least a part of that "pit" could be a little bit of accounting sleight-of-hand, to me.

Maybe Netflix would have passed on She Hulk.

Did D+ have a choice?

They probably would have lapped up everything Star Wars good and bad but would they have been receptive to a series based on a single movie by the same studio that most younger people have never heard of?

Doesn't matter because it got made and LFL got paid, right?

Given this conversation, it seems like the potential for D+ losses (in the short term, only) may have been more of a potential opportunity for the company than a problem, especially given COVID.

Then again, I'm not discounting that I may be losing my mind.

View attachment 728160

I feel like this could be the plot of a movie if I can figure out how to get someone to die in the middle of all of this under suspicious circumstances.

As has been mentioned already, this is standard Hollywood accounting, corporate accounting really. So no real sleight-of-hand going on as its done right out in the open and by all studios and is accepted.

Also the Parks have been propping up different parts of the company for decades, so nothing new there.

In reality, and this is what some can't accept, Disney is in a real good position with D+ as the profit is about to start rolling in here in the next couple quarters.

 

[MrPromey]

... as the profit is about to start rolling in here in the next couple quarters.

I'm not sure how any of this discussion has drawn you to that conclusion but okay.

From what I can tell, they need profit to start rolling in after the next two, maybe three quarters or someone's in trouble.

We'll see if they've got that figured out.*

*I'm not saying they haven't. I'm just not seeing any evidence that they have.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm not sure how any of this discussion has drawn you to that conclusion but okay.

Its not based on this discussion, but rather the actual quarterly earnings. Operating income has been on a downward trajectory and revenue from the higher ARPU subs has been growing. Hence its primed to turn a profit here in the next couple quarters unless something completely derails things.

 

[BrianLo]

I'm not sure how any of this discussion has drawn you to that conclusion but okay.

It's basic math. The service generates a lot of revenue and it spends even more.

We're betting on can Disney squeeze more revenue out of its existing customers and spend less for it? Yes. That is Iger's M.O.

D+ is entering its Disney Parks phase. They seem to be moving all the puzzle pieces to force profitability by Q1 2024. If content spend cuts can't do it, there is a lot of room for price increases. D+ is still massively underpriced for the type of tentpole theatrical content it provides.

 

[MrPromey]

It's basic math. The service generates a lot of revenue and it spends even more.

We're betting on can Disney squeeze more revenue out of its existing customers and spend less for it? Yes. That is Iger's M.O.

D+ is entering its Disney Parks phase. They seem to be moving all the puzzle pieces to force profitability by Q1 2024. If content spend cuts can't do it, there is a lot of room for price increases. D+ is still massively underpriced for the type of tentpole theatrical content it provides.

No, I get you. I understand that's the goal.

It's just Disney Irish's hand waving and relentless faith that everything's coming up Millhouse in these threads I'm not totally sold on.

But we'll know in 6-9 months, right?

 

[Disney Irish]

No, I get you. I understand that's the goal.

It's just Disney Irish's relentless faith that everything's coming up Millhouse I'm not totally sold on.

The whole economy could crash tomorrow and cause the whole thing to flip on its head. But all things being equal my "faith" is based on the basic math as Brian pointed out.

 

[MrPromey]

The whole economy could crash tomorrow and cause the whole thing to flip on its head. But all things being equal my "faith" is based on the basic math as Brian pointed out.

Um... yeah, sorry, I don't buy that - mostly because this isn't the first thread in the movie section of this forum we've talked.

Your overarching faith seems to be in something much bigger than "basic math".

Don't get me wrong, though. I'm not suggesting there is anything wrong with being an optimist.

And it's not your fault that optimists will forever be annoying to pessimists.

 

[Disney Irish]

Um... yeah, sorry, I don't buy that - mostly because this isn't the first thread in the movie section of this forum we've talked. Your overarching faith seems to be in something much bigger than that.

Don't get me wrong, though. I'm not suggesting there is anything wrong with being an optimist.

And it's not your fault that optimists will forever be annoying to pessimists.

Now you're talking about something completely different than just D+.

If you really knew me and not based on typed words in a forum you'd know I'm actually way more negative, I just choose to filter how much of that comes out in my posts.

 

[MrPromey]

Now you're talking about something completely different than just D+.

If you really knew me and not based on typed words in a forum you'd know I'm actually way more negative, I just choose to filter how much of that comes out in my posts.

I was before, too.

You did respond with that to my post where I said threads - with an "s".

Just sayin'

It's cool, though.

I don't take any of this personally and I hope you don't, either.

 

[Disney Irish]

I was before, too.

You did respond with that to my post where I said threads - with an "s".

Just sayin'

It's cool, though.

I don't take any of this personally and I hope you don't, either.

And as I said I filter what I post, in ALL threads not just one, even the ones I've interacted with you.

I learned long ago that just giving in to the negativity and pessimism of the internet, especially about topics that are personal to me, doesn't do me or my mental health any good. And it really doesn't add anything but more negativity to an already largely negative medium.

Trust me you wouldn't want to see this site if the posters all turned completely negative, it would be miserable.

Now as for D+, I'm just using my business brain on that one and following the numbers. Could it turn out bad, absolutely. Do I think it will, no as Iger won't let it.

 

[MrPromey]

And as I said I filter what I post, in ALL threads not just one, even the ones I've interacted with you.

I learned long ago that just giving in to the negativity and pessimism of the internet, especially about topics that are personal to me, doesn't do me or my mental health any good. And it really doesn't add anything but more negativity to an already largely negative medium.

Trust me you wouldn't want to see this site if the posters all turned completely negative, it would be miserable.

Okay, I'll take you at your word you're a miserable jerk at parties, if that's what you really want.

Anyway, like you I hope it all works out. I don't expect financial success to fix everything I don't like about the company right now but it would certainly be a step in the right direction if they can earn it.

 

[Disney Irish]

Okay, I'll take you at your word you're a miserable jerk at parties, if that's what you really want.

I'm the quiet guy that everyone talks to because I just listen, I've been told that comes across as a miserable jerk. So yeah you go it.

 

[Disney Irish]

Anyway, like you I hope it all works out. I don't expect financial success to fix everything I don't like about the company right now but it would certainly be a step in the right direction if they can earn it.

I agree, I actualy don't expect it to change much of anything overall. It certainly won't fix the issues people have with the Parks. It won't fix the lack of creative stories that people don't like. And so on.

 

[Disney Analyst]

TLM is not a flop, it just didn't make enough at the box office to cover the cost to make and market.

Just a question jumping off this point.

How important to a studio like Disney, is earning the cost back during the theatrical window? Specifically if it’s not a huge loss or a mega bomb (like Strange World).

Obviously from an investment standpoint, you want to see all of Disney’s stuff be mega profitable off the get.

But Disney is also a unique company that can leverage a property to make the company money in different ways, although that future profit might not appear on the studios spreadsheets.

Example: does popularity on Disney+ play a factor once it releases? How much do they make in DVD or digital sales the days? Merchandise? How much does the album bring in for digital streams and physical sales?

How does Disney look at a property like this, and assess its success? Is it solely the original theatrical run?

 

[erasure fan1]

Just a question jumping off this point.

How important to a studio like Disney, is earning the cost back during the theatrical window? Specifically if it’s not a huge loss or a mega bomb (like Strange World).

Obviously box office isn't the end all be all for Disney. Nightmare before Christmas is a great example. Small budget, barely broke even in its theatrical window, but has made ungodly amounts of money after the fact. I would think that how much a movie costs, is what factors into their expectations. I doubt they would ever say it publicly. But when you spend uber blockbuster money on a film, break even is not the plan. The key is to keep the budget in check, and make sure you are telling a compelling story with likeable characters. I know it's easier said than done, but that's why you need the budget check in case it doesn't all go to plan.

 

[Jedijax719]

I wish someone could objectively define "flop".

 

[lazyboy97o]

Obviously box office isn't the end all be all for Disney. Nightmare before Christmas is a great example. Small budget, barely broke even in its theatrical window, but has made ungodly amounts of money after the fact. I would think that how much a movie costs, is what factors into their expectations. I doubt they would ever say it publicly. But when you spend uber blockbuster money on a film, break even is not the plan. The key is to keep the budget in check, and make sure you are telling a compelling story with likeable characters. I know it's easier said than done, but that's why you need the budget check in case it doesn't all go to plan.

Of course Disney wants more money. They even do get unreasonable expectations (see TRON: Legacy as a prime example). But there is also a reason they let Sony keep the film rights to Spider-Man in exchange for the merchandise rights.

 

[LittleBuford]

I wish someone could objectively define "flop".

I’m not sure an objective definition is possible, but I offered my thoughts earlier. Without denying that profit comes into the equation, I’ve always understood the term as referring to films that do badly at the box office and that are snubbed by audiences. A film that attracts a high number of viewers is not, by my definition, a flop, even if it proves a financial disappointment. Others clearly feel differently.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The thing that bothers me is the double standard in the movie and the theme park business.

TLM will lose millions, Disney takes it AS A WIN and will do it over and over again with more live action remakes.

Then in the theme park business we have the Star Cruiser that did not MAKE ENOUGH MONEY and that will be bulldozed.