Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[MrPromey]

Lol, Budget 250M, advertising 140M, Total 390M ---> Breakeven = 800M

This is a 200M+ write-off for Disney. An Absolute disaster.

This is the point a lot of people seem to be missing.

It's made half a billion dollars.

Considering no other factors, that's a lot of money but it's like when James Cameron basically said Avatar 2 was going to be a flop unless it made a billion dollars (edit - he actually said TWO billion).

That's insane. It having to be one of the highest grossing movies of all time to not be a failure is insane but he pulled it off so it's easy to overlook that lunacy.

With TLM, they haven't done it.

If anyone thinks a movie like this should be successful after making half a billion dollars, I would agree.

The question is, why can't Disney seem to make a movie that's successful after earning half a billion dollars?

 

[Disney Analyst]

How many movies have crossed the billion mark worldwide since 2020?

How does that compare to pre-2020?

How many audience members think “what was the budget, will this film be a box office smash”?

Will all studios be adjusting budgets based on how the industry is now playing out?

 

[BlakeW39]

This is the point a lot of people seem to be missing.

It's made half a billion dollars.

Considering no other factors, that's a lot of money but it's like when James Cameron basically said Avatar 2 was going to be a flop unless it made a billion dollars.

That's insane. It having to be one of the highest grossing movies of all time to not be a failure is insane but he did it so it's easy to overlook that lunacy.

With TLM, they haven't done it.

If anyone thinks a movie like this should be successful after making half a billion dollars, I would agree.

The question is, why can't Disney seem to make a movie that's successful after earning half a billion dollars?

Whether or not $500mil is a lot of money imo depends on context. Is it a lot of money for an individual person? Yes. Is it a lot of money for a country's gross domestic product? No. So what's the context here? A major Hollywood blockbuster based on popular IP that costed over $200mil to make? I mean, whether $500mil is "a lot" of money seems subjective and arbitrary, but if $500mil isn't even enough for the project to break even then I wouldn't really call it very impressive.

 

[Andrew C]

The question is, why can't Disney seem to make a movie that's successful after earning half a billion dollars?

That is on them to figure out. If they cannot produce a movie that makes a half of billion dollars without having a ridiculous budget, including they money they spent on marketing (and due to that, not turning a profit), they need to reexamine their approach.

 

[MrPromey]

Whether or not $500mil is a lot of money imo depends on context. Is it a lot of money for an individual person? Yes. Is it a lot of money for a country's gross domestic product? No. So what's the context here? A major Hollywood blockbuster based on popular IP that costed over $200mil to make? I mean, whether $500mil is "a lot" of money seems subjective and arbitrary, but if $500mil isn't even enough for the project to break even then I wouldn't really call it very impressive.

That’s my point and that’s the problem everyone trying to argue how well it’s doing is missing.

If this movie had been made and marketed for half what they actually spent, it would be a wild success.

But it wasn’t and that’s why it is looking to be a flop.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Considering no other factors,

And that’s the issue, if you look solely at TLM‘s half billion dollar box office it‘s hard to argue it’s not a success, but once you factor in the costs, and more importantly the fact that all the other renaissance era remakes made twice that, it looks like a big failure in comparison.

It was estimated to make a billion dollars and it’s made half that, my guess is Disney considers it a major failure also.

 

[erasure fan1]

Over half a billion?!

What a flop!!

That's why myself, and others, have harped on the budgets so much. It is controlling the narrative at this point. When you make a movie with a all time blockbuster budget, half a billion won't cut it from a financial standpoint. Now if Mermaid had a more reasonable budget, something around 150mil max. The narrative of the film is completely different in my opinion. That doesn't mean people can't/didn't enjoy it. But the thing that is going to get talked about is Disney losing money. Not that it made 500mil.

 

[Andrew C]

If this movie had been made and marketed for half what what they actually spent, it would be a wild success.

Or it would have brought in less money…

 

[BlakeW39]

That's why myself, and others, have harped on the budgets so much. It is controlling the narrative at this point. When you make a movie with a all time blockbuster budget, half a billion won't cut it from a financial standpoint. Now if Mermaid had a more reasonable budget, something around 150mil max. The narrative of the film is completely different in my opinion. That doesn't mean people can't/didn't enjoy it. But the thing that is going to get talked about is Disney losing money. Not that it made 500mil.

sure but it also isn't just budget. If the film made $700mil, that would be one thing. That would be significantly worse than some other, comparable films like Aladdin, but it wouldn't be some insane flop. But $500mil is low for major blockbusters in general, especially ones based on actually very popular IP.

 

[Disstevefan1]

TLM is not a flop, it just didn't make enough at the box office to cover the cost to make and market.

 

[lazyboy97o]

This is the point a lot of people seem to be missing.

It's made half a billion dollars.

Considering no other factors, that's a lot of money but it's like when James Cameron basically said Avatar 2 was going to be a flop unless it made a billion dollars.

That's insane. It having to be one of the highest grossing movies of all time to not be a failure is insane but he pulled it off so it's easy to overlook that lunacy.

With TLM, they haven't done it.

If anyone thinks a movie like this should be successful after making half a billion dollars, I would agree.

The question is, why can't Disney seem to make a movie that's successful after earning half a billion dollars?

The concern for too many is not really about Disney's financial performance. Many Disney movies now considered classics did not perform well at the box office. It's just more "wink, wink, nudge, nudge, know what I mean". It should be obvious when people going on about legacy and Walt are also unknowingly suggesting that Disney outsource significant chunks of the animation for the feature films. It's all contradiction because it's not a true concern.

 

[LittleBuford]

That would be significantly worse than some other, comparable films like Aladdin, but it wouldn't be some insane flop.

It isn’t “some insane flop” with its current performance either.

 

[BlakeW39]

That’s my point and that’s the problem everyone trying to argue how well it’s doing is missing.

If this movie had been made and marketed for half what what they actually spent, it would be a wild success.

But it wasn’t and that’s why it is looking to be a flop.

Agreed and the issue here is multifold.

Yes these movies are very expensive but that's also kind of by necessity. The technology required to make these huge CGI blockbusters is wildly expensive. So you've got two options. 1, decrease the amount you invest in your product, which will necessarily affect its quality all else held equal; or 2, decrease the number of expensive films you make to those that are guaranteed wins.

There's no easy fix here. Audiences are fed up with mediocre blockbusters. So the answer is to stop making so many of them. But how do you get that money back from before? I don't know. Audiences aren't captive anymore. We got other things we want to do. So the only solution is to make us an offer we don't want to refuse, i.e. a quality product that fits our needs/wants as consumers.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Lol, Budget 250M, advertising 140M, Total 390M ---> Breakeven = 800M

This is a 200M+ write-off for Disney. An Absolute disaster.

This isn’t true. I’ve repeatedly posted articles with the actual numbers. TLM, at least, broke even. But folks here and in the other threads aren’t actually engaging in good faith conversation, they’re spewing repetitive garbage and then not engaging with alternative views or contradictory information. It’s political trolling.

 

[BlakeW39]

It isn’t “some insane flop” with its current performance either.

losing well over a hundred million dollars is a pretty big flop. Whether it's insane I suppose is subjective, but I'm pretty impressed. Even I didn't think it would make this little money.

 

[erasure fan1]

sure but it also isn't just budget. If the film made $700mil, that would be one thing. That would be significantly worse than some other, comparable films like Aladdin, but it wouldn't be some insane flop. But $500mil is low for major blockbusters in general, especially ones based on actually very popular IP.

I agree. But the narrative still changes. With the budget I said, the movie makes somewhere close to 70/80mil. While that doesn't make it no way home or Maverick, it would still have positive financials. Should it have done 700mil or more? Yea, probably. I said that well before it released. There's little doubt in my mind that Disney needs to step up its creative game. But if everything always has to be a mega all-time blockbuster financially, you'll continue to see them play it safe.

 

[Jlasoon]

That's why myself, and others, have harped on the budgets so much. It is controlling the narrative at this point. When you make a movie with a all time blockbuster budget, half a billion won't cut it from a financial standpoint. Now if Mermaid had a more reasonable budget, something around 150mil max. The narrative of the film is completely different in my opinion. That doesn't mean people can't/didn't enjoy it. But the thing that is going to get talked about is Disney losing money. Not that it made 500mil.

150M budget + 100M Advertising Budget & this movie breaks even with current box office numbers. Problem is, studios only get 50% of box office take in NA, 40% in Europe/rest of world, and roughly 20% from China.

And remember, there are no more rentals. Everything goes to Disney+ now. No extra money there.

This Mermaid movie is a massive Bomb. No way to spin it. Break even is somewhere around 800M.

Mermaid = horrific bomb, Indiana 5 = ??? <-------Oooof

 

[LittleBuford]

losing well over a hundred million dollars is a pretty big flop. Whether it's insane I suppose is subjective, but I'm pretty impressed. Even I didn't think it would make this little money.

I can honestly say that before this thread, I always understood the term “flop” to refer to a film that failed to attract viewers. In certain overseas markets, TLM was indeed a flop by this measure, but in the US, it secured a healthy audience and is currently the fifth best-performing film of the year.

If we were to apply your definition to Avatar: The Way of Water, we would have to conclude that it would have been a flop had it failed to make any less than $1.4 billion, which was its reported break-even point. That seems an absurd and untenable framing to me.

 

[Jlasoon]

It isn’t “some insane flop” with its current performance either.

Lol, from the numbers I'm getting this morning it's a roughly 200M write off as it stands for Disney.

Indiana 5 is looking like a 400M+ write off. <--------Absolutely INSANE!!! I doubt it even gets to $500M

People need to lose their jobs over this. And not the kid at the Magic Kingdom cleaning the park or the bus driver working long tedious hours for pennies. Kathleen needs to go ASAP!

 

[Casper Gutman]

Not that it will do much good, but:

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com