Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[MoonRakerSCM]

Exactly. I mean give us our Home on the Range live action movie before Moana.

Would be the most intriguing Disney news in 5 years!

 

[BrianLo]

Even if the film breaks even when other revenue outlets are accounted for, I think the expectation was always that the movie was going to turn a profit with box office receipts alone, as so many of these live-action remakes have.

I doubt Disney is thrilled that this movie will make less than $600 million worldwide, given the hype and high expectations they had.

No doubt. The movie is grey. A disappointing worldwide run. A good domestic run and audience reception domestically. Meagre critical response. A terrible International reaction/box office. Under what Disney expected because of the International thud.

But it's not a disaster and that's why there are so many pages of ink spilled over it. No one got exactly what they 'wanted' or projected.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Even if the film breaks even when other revenue outlets are accounted for, I think the expectation was always that the movie was going to turn a profit with box office receipts alone, as so many of these live-action remakes have.

I doubt Disney is thrilled that this movie will make less than $600 million worldwide, given the hype and high expectations they had.

Back in 2018, I imagine they weren’t even just thinking break even but were probably dreaming of a record setting gross. It’s not hard to see how this was probably supposed to be the Avengers of the remake business, going back to the OG renaissance movie. While box office grossed climbed higher and higher with the Renaissance films, none has had quite the same enduring cultural (merchandising) presence as Ariel.

 

[Stitch's Grandfather]

No doubt. The movie is grey. A disappointing worldwide run. A good domestic run and audience reception domestically. Meagre critical response. A terrible International reaction/box office. Under what Disney expected because of the International thud.

But it's not a disaster and that's why there are so many pages of ink spilled over it. No one got exactly what they 'wanted' or projected.

You should copy/paste this to the Indiana Jones thread, too.

 

[Disney Irish]

Back in 2018, I imagine they weren’t even just thinking break even but were probably dreaming of a record setting gross. It’s not hard to see how this was probably supposed to be the Avengers of the remake business, going back to the OG renaissance movie. While box office grossed climbed higher and higher with the Renaissance films, none has had quite the same enduring cultural (merchandising) presence as Ariel.

This is why talking budgets is a little disingenuous, budget was approved in the before times based on box office landscape at THAT time. No one knew when approving the budget how much the theatrical box office would change post pandemic.

 

[TP2000]

No doubt. The movie is grey. A disappointing worldwide run. A good domestic run and audience reception domestically. Meagre critical response. A terrible International reaction/box office. Under what Disney expected because of the International thud.

A good domestic run for The Little Mermaid domestically by what measure?

Judged against the previous big-budget Disney live action remakes? Or judged against Ruby Gillman: The Teenage Kraken?

Because if we're judging the latest live-action remake from Disney, The Little Mermaid, against the last three live-action remakes from the past six years, The Little Mermaid fell flat on its fins. It's just math.

Adjusted for inflation, and with another 2% or 3% to eek out in the next 3 weeks, Mermaid '23 only did 68% of Aladdin's domestic box office. Mermaid '23 only did 48% of Beauty and the Beast's domestic box office. And Mermaid '23 only did 44% of The Lion King's domestic box office.

The domestic box office for Mermaid '23 is bad compared to those previous three live-action remakes. But it's still that $250 Million production budget, plus a splashy $150 Million in global marketing, that is dragging it down like a lead anchor on a Mermaid's tail.

 

[LittleBuford]

A good domestic run for The Little Mermaid domestically by what measure?

 

[BrianLo]

A good domestic run for The Little Mermaid domestically by what measure?

Judged against the previous big-budget Disney live action remakes? Or judged against Ruby Gillman: The Teenage Kraken?

Because if we're judging the latest live-action remake from Disney, The Little Mermaid, against the last three live-action remakes from the past six years, The Little Mermaid fell flat on its fins. It's just math.

Adjusted for inflation, and with another 2% or 3% to eek out in the next 3 weeks, Mermaid '23 only did 68% of Aladdin's domestic box office. Mermaid '23 only did 48% of Beauty and the Beast's domestic box office. And Mermaid '23 only did 44% of The Lion King's domestic box office.

The domestic box office for Mermaid '23 is bad compared to those previous three live-action remakes. But it's still that $250 Million production budget, plus a splashy $150 Million in global marketing, that is dragging it down like a lead anchor on a Mermaid's tail.

View attachment 727794

By my own definition of the word good. Used with purpose. It’s not great, excellent, exceptional or extraordinary. It’s not bad or awful. It’s good.

Any tentpole that earns 300mil domestically is generally 'good'. You are comparing it to great, excellent or exceptional domestic performers. Semantics aside, I stick by my choice of wording. Which is not to say they aren't disappointed that it is merely 'good' and all the other renaissance films did better.

I've never questioned their probable disappointment.

 

[TP2000]

Any tentpole that earns 300mil domestically is generally 'good'.

But what if Disney spent $400 Million to produce and market that tentpole, thus needing $600+ Million globally to break even?

Is it still "good" then? When it cost Disney $100-ish Million in losses to deliver that movie?

I wouldn't call that kind of performance and that kind of financial loss "good", but then I'm hopelessly 20th century in my thinking.

 

[Chi84]

But what if Disney spent $400 Million to produce and market that tentpole, thus needing $600+ Million globally to break even?

Is it still "good" then? When it cost Disney $100-ish Million in losses to deliver that movie?

I wouldn't call that kind of performance and that kind of financial loss "good", but then I'm hopelessly 20th century in my thinking.

That may be true. Things have changed dramatically in the last three years.

 

[TP2000]

That may be true. Things have changed dramatically in the last three years.

Agreed. Look, I don't envy Disney their current situation trying to market $200+ Million tentpoles in a market that has soured on their brand and their IP's. I think Disney's various studios bear a big chunk of that blame, with the sole (barely) exception of Marvel. They just aren't making movies that American families want to flock to, or instinctively know they can trust for family entertainment. That's Disney's fault entirely, in my opinion. They did this to themselves on purpose, for some reason.

But then, that's a situation that other studios have to deal with too. Warner Bros. is really hurting, which makes this upcoming cultural phenom of Barbie more interesting, and more fortuitous for the Sharp Pencil Boys at Warners. Americans in summer just want a fun and upbeat and happy movie, maybe even with a good message, that they can see with the kids without being hit over the head with the latest 'ism or being made to feel how awful they are for being average Americans.

Disney used to feed that average American family demographic instinctively. That's stopped, suddenly. And the box office is proving it.

It's up to Burbank to turn that around. Because their current financial trajectory with endless $200 Million tentpoles isn't working.

 

[Disney Irish]

Agreed. Look, I don't envy Disney their current situation trying to market $200+ Million tentpoles in a market that has soured on their brand and their IP's. I think Disney's various studios bear a big chunk of that blame, with the sole (barely) exception of Marvel. They just aren't making movies that American families want to flock to, or instinctively know they can trust for family entertainment. That's Disney's fault entirely, in my opinion. They did this to themselves on purpose, for some reason.

But then, that's a situation that other studios have to deal with too. Warner Bros. is really hurting, which makes this upcoming cultural phenom of Barbie more interesting, and more fortuitous for the Sharp Pencil Boys at Warners. Americans in summer just want a fun and upbeat and happy movie, maybe even with a good message, that they can see with the kids without being hit over the head with the latest 'ism or being made to feel how awful they are for being average Americans.

Disney used to feed that average American family demographic instinctively. That's stopped, suddenly. And the box office is proving it.

It's up to Burbank to turn that around. Because their current financial trajectory with endless $200 Million tentpoles isn't working.

You keep touting Barbie as the next great American summer blockbuster, yet the tracking doesn't bear that out, as its still tracking lower than TLM and looks to be a flop also.

Sorry but can't use the same metrics to deride Disney but claim the movie you're looking forward to like Barbie as a "cultural phenom".

 

[Chi84]

Agreed. Look, I don't envy Disney their current situation trying to market $200+ Million tentpoles in a market that has soured on their brand and their IP's. I think Disney's various studios bear a big chunk of that blame, with the sole (barely) exception of Marvel. They just aren't making movies that American families want to flock to, or instinctively know they can trust for family entertainment. That's Disney's fault entirely, in my opinion. They did this to themselves on purpose, for some reason.

But then, that's a situation that other studios have to deal with too. Warner Bros. is really hurting, which makes this upcoming cultural phenom of Barbie more interesting, and more fortuitous for the Sharp Pencil Boys at Warners. Americans in summer just want a fun and upbeat and happy movie, maybe even with a good message, that they can see with the kids without being hit over the head with the latest 'ism or being made to feel how awful they are for being average Americans.

Disney used to feed that average American family demographic instinctively. That's stopped, suddenly. And the box office is proving it.

It's up to Burbank to turn that around. Because their current financial trajectory with endless $200 Million tentpoles isn't working.

What will it say if Barbie does not do well?

 

[TP2000]

You keep touting Barbie as the next great American summer blockbuster, yet the tracking doesn't bear that out, as its still tracking lower than TLM and looks to be a flop also.

Sorry but can't use the same metrics to deride Disney but claim the movie you're looking forward to like Barbie as a "cultural phenom".

No, not when Barbie only cost $100 Million to produce. And looks as colorful and fun as it does.

I wouldn't be surprised if the $100 Million Barbie does better at the box office than the $250 Million Mermaid,

 

[TP2000]

What will it say if Barbie does not do well?

That I'm totally wrong at judging the pop cultural zeitgeist of Americans.

 

[Disney Irish]

No, not when Barbie only cost $100 Million to produce. And looks as colorful and fun as it does.

I wouldn't be surprised if the $100 Million Barbie does better at the box office than the $250 Million Mermaid,

Its still tracking lower than TLM, PERIOD. Meaning its tracking to STILL lose money, even on a $100M+Marketing budget.

 

[TP2000]

Its still tracking lower than TLM, PERIOD. Meaning its STILL losing money, even on a $100M+Marketing budget

It doesn't open for 3 weeks. As you like to say, just wait...

 

[Disney Irish]

It doesn't open for 3 weeks. As you like to say, just wait...

As SirWalt says you can tell almost to the dollar how its going to turn out, the numbers are the numbers. There is no waiting to see according to you guys.

You guys can't have it both ways.

 

[TP2000]

As SirWalt says you can tell almost to the dollar how its going to turn out, the numbers are the numbers. There is no waiting to see according to you guys.

You guys can't have it both ways.

I don't know what you're talking about. I generally don't know what the "projections" are, nor do I know where online to find them.

I mainly deal in hard facts and data that are documented only after a movie opens on The Numbers website.

I expect Barbie to do very well at the box office in three weeks. It looks hysterical and fabulous. And I have a very good sense of humor and rather good taste, so I would know.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't know what you're talking about. I don't know what the "projections" are, nor do I know where online to find them.

I mainly deal in hard facts and data that are documented only after a movie opens on The Numbers website.

I expect Barbie to do very well at the box office in three weeks. It looks hysterical and fabulous. And I have a very good sense of humor and rather good taste, so I would know.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

I just gave you the industry site on where the projections are coming from, these are fed by the studios themselves.

Here it is again:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Disney's HAUNTED MANSION; Tracking Updates for MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE, BARBIE, and OPPENHEIMER

This week's report takes a look at box office prospects for Haunted Mansion, Disney's next IP reimagining slated for release in late July.

www.boxofficepro.com

Even MI:7 is tracking low compared to its over $300M+marketing budget.