It will be seen as a disappointment but not a total debacle like Lightyear/Strange World/Elemental. With box office alone it will break even at best (might even lose some money), but it will likely be profitable in the long run due to associated merchandise.
It will be a write down based on box office…for now.
A lot of the merch is currently sold out at the parks.
I mean the character (Ariel) is already widely popular, they don’t really need to do a “never give up” approach with this.
The end of the movie set up possibilities for a sequel, with Ariel and Eric going off to explore. But I can't imagine a sequel being greenlit due to the first movie being a financial disappointment.
The only way for a sequel to be a viable option, is if they can get the budget down to 150mil or so. I highly doubt Disney could knock a hundred mil off of the budget though. That would put you at the 400/450mil to profit range depending on advertising. Attainable but still a pretty big question mark.
Since Ariel was turned into a human, they could have way less underwater sequences. Still, I doubt a sequel will be profitable enough.
As we have seen Disney make choices that defy logic before, I would not be surprised if they make a sequel.
You seem to be under the mistaken impression that I want a sequel. I think it would be a bad idea.
Maybe next time stop trying to score some points with a dig and actually have a discussion.You went here:
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Covid “making the budget out of control”…is a Hail Mary to a strawman argument
And to be clear: I love me some Ray Bolger
I think this is important to recognize as well. While we don’t live in a bubble, Id say that Disney will domestically spin this as a “success” and will do whatever they deem necessary from there. Whether it be a live action D+ series starring Halle & Jonah as they explore the “Uncharted Waters”, and the mischief they encounter along the way. They could just cast Halle in a new movie (or show) so she could shine as the star she is without being weighed down with the controversy and debate that plagued this film, along with the remake fatigue
Also, when awards season rolls around, I’m expecting definite nominations for best visual effects but depending on what the competition is, I could also imagine it being recognized for best cinematography and some other technical awards as well. I don’t see any scenario where it would get a best picture nomination except for the Golden Globes best comedy or musical category, where it probably will score a nom. I’m also hoping that Wild Uncharted Waters gets some awards love, and I’m not ruling out Melissa either.
Adjusted for inflation, The Little Mermaid will pull in, domestically, around the same as Oz, The Great and Powerful. ($234M in 2019 = $305M today)
While yes this is correct, the difference is that while yes Oz is an cultural juggernaut of an IP, Disney doesn’t own it. The Little Mermaid is a piece of the Disney brand, as much as The Lion King or Mickey is.
People don't care about this, its all about "Disney releases bomb after bomb" without looking at the nuance of the Box Office.