Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
You went here:
Covid “making the budget out of control”…is a Hail Mary to a strawman argument
And to be clear: I love me some Ray Bolger
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Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid
- Thread starter NateD1226
- Start date
Covid “making the budget out of control”…is a Hail Mary to a strawman argument
And to be clear: I love me some Ray Bolger
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
So now that the box office run is officially done…currently $466 off a bad weekend….where does the legacy of this sit?
It’s a $75 mil writedown…best case scenario
It’s a $75 mil writedown…best case scenario
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
It will be seen as a disappointment but not a total debacle like Lightyear/Strange World/Elemental. With box office alone it will break even at best (might even lose some money), but it will likely be profitable in the long run due to associated merchandise.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It will be a write down based on box office…for now.
Merch may fare better. Possibly.
Disney took a different tact with PATF that has yielded results over time. It wasn’t that popular and they never gave up.
Perhaps that will work with mermaid 2.0?
We’ll never know…but don’t be surprised if “live action Mermaid 2” was already worked up and was lit on fire and thrown into a trash can on the top floor of the dwarf house…quietly…over the weekend?
MagicHappens1971
Well-Known Member
A lot of the merch is currently sold out at the parks.
I mean the character (Ariel) is already widely popular, they don’t really need to do a “never give up” approach with this.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
The end of the movie set up possibilities for a sequel, with Ariel and Eric going off to explore. But I can't imagine a sequel being greenlit due to the first movie being a financial disappointment.
Unless the sequel turned out to be an unexpected crossover with Pirates of the Caribbean. Would be a bad idea, but I wouldn't put anything past a desperate Disney company.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
The only way for a sequel to be a viable option, is if they can get the budget down to 150mil or so. I highly doubt Disney could knock a hundred mil off of the budget though. That would put you at the 400/450mil to profit range depending on advertising. Attainable but still a pretty big question mark.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
Since Ariel was turned into a human, they could have way less underwater sequences. Still, I doubt a sequel will be profitable enough.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
As we have seen Disney make choices that defy logic before, I would not be surprised if they make a sequel.
Its getting harder and harder to understand the decisions TWDC makes.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
You seem to be under the mistaken impression that I want a sequel. I think it would be a bad idea.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Maybe next time stop trying to score some points with a dig and actually have a discussion.You went here:
View attachment 724944
Covid “making the budget out of control”…is a Hail Mary to a strawman argument
And to be clear: I love me some Ray Bolger
We actually agree here that budgets are out of control and need to be reigned in, I've been saying this for a long time now. My only point is that when this was originally greenlit back in 2016 we don't know the original budget. All I was trying to do was provide some context on why the budget might have increase even just at least a little bit, you seem not to care about the nuisance of it. The overall point still remains the same, which we appear to both agree, $250M is way too much of a budget for almost all Disney films.
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
From a Domestic perspective, The Little Mermaid is certainly a success, and will have a cultural impact worth exploring in North America.
How Disney spins this, I don't know. But it's certainly not an outright failure. International is a big disappointment.
How Disney spins this, I don't know. But it's certainly not an outright failure. International is a big disappointment.
MagicHappens1971
Well-Known Member
I think this is important to recognize as well. While we don’t live in a bubble, Id say that Disney will domestically spin this as a “success” and will do whatever they deem necessary from there. Whether it be a live action D+ series starring Halle & Jonah as they explore the “Uncharted Waters”, and the mischief they encounter along the way. They could just cast Halle in a new movie (or show) so she could shine as the star she is without being weighed down with the controversy and debate that plagued this film, along with the remake fatigue
BuddyThomas
Well-Known Member
Also, when awards season rolls around, I’m expecting definite nominations for best visual effects but depending on what the competition is, I could also imagine it being recognized for best cinematography and some other technical awards as well. I don’t see any scenario where it would get a best picture nomination except for the Golden Globes best comedy or musical category, where it probably will score a nom. I’m also hoping that Wild Uncharted Waters gets some awards love, and I’m not ruling out Melissa either.
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
And I could be wrong with my knowledge, but wasn't there a time Disney titles themselves weren't usually as big internationally? Is this just a normal cycle, ebb and flow situation?
If Disney can get their budgets down, would international be as important as it is with the current budgets?
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Adjusted for inflation, The Little Mermaid will pull in, domestically, around the same as Oz, The Great and Powerful. ($234M in 2019 = $305M today)
How did those planned Oz sequels work out? Does Disney even acknowledge that film exists any longer?
MagicHappens1971
Well-Known Member
While yes this is correct, the difference is that while yes Oz is an cultural juggernaut of an IP, Disney doesn’t own it. The Little Mermaid is a piece of the Disney brand, as much as The Lion King or Mickey is.
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
The easiest thing to do is compare domestic, from 2019 to now.
2019:
2020 (lol):
2021:
2022:
and now 2023:
Of course, 2023 still has 6ish months to go. But 2019, which was an incredible box office year, would have The Little Mermaid currently in 10th slot (of course I am not adjusting for inflation because MEH, inflation is a factor, but audience behaviour has also changed so much. Who knows, maybe all the films released now would have performed better in a time before Covid).
2019:
2020 (lol):
2021:
2022:
and now 2023:
Of course, 2023 still has 6ish months to go. But 2019, which was an incredible box office year, would have The Little Mermaid currently in 10th slot (of course I am not adjusting for inflation because MEH, inflation is a factor, but audience behaviour has also changed so much. Who knows, maybe all the films released now would have performed better in a time before Covid).