Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)

[Jrb1979]

We are a 1.5hrs from Carowinds, 4 hrs from Dollywood & 6 Flags over Ga, and SDC & Busch would be doable, too. We like to travel and see history sites, so all would work for us. Thanks for the tip!

Do you think Disney was left off because their prices have gone up so much?

Its a longer trip but Cedar Point is definitely worth going to. They have a nice little island call Put-in Bay near there.

I think Disney was left off as many people feel it's not worth the money you pay for it. For me personally FP+ is why I don't like Disney like I used to. Its cause most parks I go to have a paid Fastpass and I find it works much better.

 

[CastAStone]

And yet, despite all of this financial trouble, Disney still somehow has the funds to retheme Splash Mountain?

It’s not happening until like 2024. They have some time to find the cash.

 

[legwand77]

I agree that's part of it. Many people are also not interested in going to any theme parks.

The majority of folks that would LOVE a vacation are opting for ones near their home.

Not any of the people I know, taking multiple trips already out of thier state, some to Disney, some to other areas. beaches , national parks, etc.

 

[mikejs78]

We are a 1.5hrs from Carowinds, 4 hrs from Dollywood & 6 Flags over Ga, and SDC & Busch would be doable, too. We like to travel and see history sites, so all would work for us. Thanks for the tip!

Do you think Disney was left off because their prices have gone up so much?

Its a longer trip but Cedar Point is definitely worth going to. They have a nice little island call Put-in Bay near there.

I think Disney was left off as many people feel it's not worth the money you pay for it. For me personally FP+ is why I don't like Disney like I used to. Its cause most parks I go to have a paid Fastpass and I find it works much better.

They weren't on the list for people to choose from, probably because these are amusement parks, and Disney is a theme park. Notice Universal is also not there.

 

[robhedin]

Not any of the people I know, taking multiple trips already out of thier state, some to Disney, some to other areas. beaches , national parks, etc.

Same here. From Atlanta, TN (GSMNP/Dollywood/Pigeon Forge/Gatlinburg), SC (Myrtle Beach), and FL (Panhandle/Orlando/Beaches) are easily reachable. Several people I work with have gone to several times.

Actually, that's one of the "good things" about this whole mess-- since our office is completely working from home, "home" has taken on a completely new meaning-- it's not uncommon to see people on WebEx in t-shirts/shorts or bathing suits w/ cover up calling in from a vacation house on the beach or mountains or from the balcony of their hotel. I took two calls myself that way- one from our resorts pool area and one from Galaxy's Edge with various "things" in the background (Millennium Falcon, Kylo Ren's shuttle, X Wing, etc). Definitely makes for a more interesting call!

 

[legwand77]

Same here. From Atlanta, TN (GSMNP/Dollywood/Pigeon Forge/Gatlinburg), SC (Myrtle Beach), and FL (Panhandle/Orlando/Beaches) are easily reachable. Several people I work with have gone to several times.

Actually, that's one of the "good things" about this whole mess-- since our office is completely working from home, "home" has taken on a completely new meaning-- it's not uncommon to see people on WebEx in t-shirts/shorts or bathing suits w/ cover up calling in from a vacation house on the beach or mountains or from the balcony of their hotel. I took two calls myself that way- one from our resorts pool area and one from Galaxy's Edge with various "things" in the background (Millennium Falcon, Kylo Ren's shuttle, X Wing, etc). Definitely makes for a more interesting call!

Yes and vacation areas resorts are marketing that heavily, getting tons of "teach from the beach" etc.

 

[legwand77]

Seriously... these poll numbers are terrible:


A new poll by the Morning Consult research company and the Hollywood Reporter found that 68% of American parents aren’t ready to take their kids to the Happiest Place on Earth once the Anaheim theme park reopens.

The survey polled 2,200 Americans between July 23-26 about how safe they feel returning to Disneyland and other U.S. theme parks amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The survey found that 78% of American parents want nothing to do with a U.S. theme park this year. Next summer looks more promising when more than twice as many parents (47% in 2021 vs. 18% in 2020) will be interested in visiting a theme park with their kids.

Disney World (26%) fared better than Universal Orlando (25%), Disneyland (24%), Universal Studios Hollywood (24%), SeaWorld Orlando (23%), Hersheypark (19%), Legoland Florida (18%), Dollywood (17%) and Cedar Point (15%) when it came to parents’ interest in going to theme parks this summer, according to the survey.

Parents not ready to take their kids to Disneyland, poll finds

A new poll finds that 68% of American parents aren’t ready to take their kids to the Happiest Place on Earth once the Anaheim theme park reopens.

www.ocregister.com

I actually think they will eventually figure this out. I think the early failings they are having, aren't related to the demand (which Chapek said was initially strong) but rather a little quirk of the reservation system itself. As long as they are allowing people to change/cancel reservations without penalty (which is good guest service!) they are going to have this percentage of people who booked reservations with only a minimal intent to follow through with it. Since the (to borrow the phrase) burden of entry is so low for an AP/local visitor to book a reservation and drive over, it's easy for them to change their mind day-of because its raining and they need a nap or what have you.

We saw this same thing happen out here at Disneyland with the Galaxy's Edge reservations. They were gone within minutes, but only a small percentage of those people actually showed up. They just can't gauge how many people will abandon a reservation until they have a few months worth of data. Then they can make the needed adjustments.

Not that terrible has headlines make it, note the poll was taken end of July, case numbers were rising fast, all over the headlines. The 78% was in response to a question , would you visit this summer, basically meaning the next few weeks. Also a fairly small audience of 900 or so parents. The polling company also has a bit of a bias.

 

[legwand77]

I think two guys named Bob would highly disagree with that. They even said so on their earnings call.

Its the new reality today. No poll means anything. If it disagrees with your world view it’s automatically biased.

Well only one Bob was on that call and all he said was

This gave some level of trepidation to travelers who are anxious about long-distance travel jumping on a plane and flying to Walt Disney World. So, what we've seen is that we have roughly 50% of our guest base still traveling from a distance but the other 50% coming from local markets and in-state. We've also had a higher-than-expected level of cancellations once somebody does make a reservation because as the disease ebbs and flows, they might necessarily cancel.

I will say that our research indicates that -- and our bookings indicate that, you know, we should be in good shape once consumer confidence sort of returns

Note quite the same as that poll leading headline, the poll is saying over 75% and the reality is more like 50% and that will increase with the situation improving like it currently is in Florida and the country.

 

[Jrb1979]

Well only one Bob was on that call and all he said was



Note quite the same as that poll leading headline, the poll is saying over 75% and the reality is more like 50% and that will increase with the situation improving like it currently is in Florida and the country.

The over 75% is theme parks in general. I disagree that that it will improve cause numbers are going down. It may help but a lot of people are out of jobs right now. Honestly the worse is yet to come as I think many haven't felt the loss of income yet.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well only one Bob was on that call and all he said was

This gave some level of trepidation to travelers who are anxious about long-distance travel jumping on a plane and flying to Walt Disney World. So, what we've seen is that we have roughly 50% of our guest base still traveling from a distance but the other 50% coming from local markets and in-state. We've also had a higher-than-expected level of cancellations once somebody does make a reservation because as the disease ebbs and flows, they might necessarily cancel.

I will say that our research indicates that -- and our bookings indicate that, you know, we should be in good shape once consumer confidence sort of returns


Note quite the same as that poll leading headline, the poll is saying over 75% and the reality is more like 50% and that will increase with the situation improving like it currently is in Florida and the country.

Both Bobs were there only one spoke. Saying 50% of their guest base is traveling from out of state isn’t the same thing as 50% of all people are interested in visiting a theme park. In pre-Covid normal times the percent of WDW visitors from FL is around 20%.

From the earnings call opening remarks:
Chapek: “At Walt Disney World, we are achieving our objective of driving a positive net contribution at current attendance levels and we expect demand will grow when the COVID situation in Florida improves.“
Christine McCarthy: “At Parks, Experiences, and Products. It's worth noting that while Walt Disney World is operating at a positive net contribution level, the upside we are seeing some reopening is less than we had originally expected given the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Florida.“

So the CFO and CEO are both acknowledging that the current attendance levels are light compared to what they projected. They both point towards the surge in Covid cases in FL as the key driver. To back up that statement they announce multiple resort openings are delayed (in some cases indefinitely) and they announce a reduction in theme park hours across the board. A poll comes out which pretty much supports exactly what they are saying and doing, but that poll is just biased and it’s all fake news.

 

[legwand77]

Both Bobs were there only one spoke. Saying 50% of their guest base is traveling from out of state isn’t the same thing as 50% of all people are interested in visiting a theme park. In pre-Covid normal times the percent of WDW visitors from FL is around 20%.

From the earnings call opening remarks:
Chapek: “At Walt Disney World, we are achieving our objective of driving a positive net contribution at current attendance levels and we expect demand will grow when the COVID situation in Florida improves.“
Christine McCarthy: “At Parks, Experiences, and Products. It's worth noting that while Walt Disney World is operating at a positive net contribution level, the upside we are seeing some reopening is less than we had originally expected given the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Florida.“

So the CFO and CEO are both acknowledging that the current attendance levels are light compared to what they projected. They both point towards the surge in Covid cases in FL as the key driver. To back up that statement they announce multiple resort openings are delayed (in some cases indefinitely) and they announce a reduction in theme park hours across the board. A poll comes out which pretty much supports exactly what they are saying and doing, but that poll is just biased and it’s all fake news.

Yup pretty much my point, things are not as bad as that one poll made it out to be and obviously attendance is not like normal .

was Iger there in spirit I guess??

 

[Jrb1979]

Yup pretty much my point, things are not as bad as that one poll made it out to be and obviously attendance is not like normal .

was Iger there in spirit I guess??

They are bad. Yes parks are being filled somewhat with AP holders but the people that spend the big bucks aren't coming. Disney fans can't see the forest for the trees.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yup pretty much my point, things are not as bad as that one poll made it out to be and obviously attendance is not like normal .

was Iger there in spirit I guess??

A poll is a poll. They asked 2,200 people if they would be willing to return to a theme park this year and 78% said no. That’s just a poll result, it’s not making anything out to be bad or good. Based on the earnings call comments, reduced operating hours and more shuttered resorts it appears that Disney is seeing the same type of data internally and acting on it. Demand is down below where they projected.

As far as I know Iger is still the chairman of the BoD. Do you think he doesn’t see the prepared remarks prior to the earnings call?

 

[The Mom]

A few posts that were crossing the line into politics have been deleted.

 

[legwand77]

A poll is a poll. They asked 2,200 people if they would be willing to return to a theme park this year and 78% said no. That’s just a poll result, it’s not making anything out to be bad or good. Based on the earnings call comments, reduced operating hours and more shuttered resorts it appears that Disney is seeing the same type of data internally and acting on it. Demand is down below where they projected.

As far as I know Iger is still the chairman of the BoD. Do you think he doesn’t see the prepared remarks prior to the earnings call?

They only asked 962 parents. So perhaps only 500-700 households. Just clarifying that both Bob's were not "on the call". Like I said of course demand is down, but not as bad as what one small poll states.

 

[GoofGoof]

They only asked 962 parents. So perhaps only 500-700 households. Just clarifying that both Bob's were not "on the call". Like I said of course demand is down, but not as bad as what one small poll states.

It was 2,220 people they polled and I don’t see where it says that they were from the same household:
The survey found that parents are hesitant to return to theme parks even with new health and safety measures in place. The survey polled 2,200 Americans between July 23-26 about how safe they feel returning to Disneyland and other U.S. theme parks amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Parents not ready to take their kids to Disneyland, poll finds

A new poll finds that 68% of American parents aren’t ready to take their kids to the Happiest Place on Earth once the Anaheim theme park reopens.

www.ocregister.com

How many people do they need to poll before it becomes statistically relevant for you? 10,000 or 100,000 maybe a million? You do know that’s not how polling works right? 2,200 is more than enough to have a valid sample assuming the sample was random.

I‘m not sure what your point is on the Bobs other than to argue just to argue. The entire board of directors was on the call and every member of the senior management team too. Only a handful of people have speaking roles. It’s not that complicated. It’s how every public corporation works.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

All irrelevant because 72.6% of all statistics are made up.

 

[easyrowrdw]

All irrelevant because 72.6% of all statistics are made up.

Source?

 

[Jrb1979]

All I picture from the few in here in regards to demand is they have their fingers in their ears and going lalalala. They don't want to hear that Disney and all theme parks are not doing very well right now.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Seriously... these poll numbers are terrible:


A new poll by the Morning Consult research company and the Hollywood Reporter found that 68% of American parents aren’t ready to take their kids to the Happiest Place on Earth once the Anaheim theme park reopens.

The survey polled 2,200 Americans between July 23-26 about how safe they feel returning to Disneyland and other U.S. theme parks amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The survey found that 78% of American parents want nothing to do with a U.S. theme park this year. Next summer looks more promising when more than twice as many parents (47% in 2021 vs. 18% in 2020) will be interested in visiting a theme park with their kids.

Disney World (26%) fared better than Universal Orlando (25%), Disneyland (24%), Universal Studios Hollywood (24%), SeaWorld Orlando (23%), Hersheypark (19%), Legoland Florida (18%), Dollywood (17%) and Cedar Point (15%) when it came to parents’ interest in going to theme parks this summer, according to the survey.

Parents not ready to take their kids to Disneyland, poll finds

A new poll finds that 68% of American parents aren’t ready to take their kids to the Happiest Place on Earth once the Anaheim theme park reopens.

www.ocregister.com

I actually think they will eventually figure this out. I think the early failings they are having, aren't related to the demand (which Chapek said was initially strong) but rather a little quirk of the reservation system itself. As long as they are allowing people to change/cancel reservations without penalty (which is good guest service!) they are going to have this percentage of people who booked reservations with only a minimal intent to follow through with it. Since the (to borrow the phrase) burden of entry is so low for an AP/local visitor to book a reservation and drive over, it's easy for them to change their mind day-of because its raining and they need a nap or what have you.

We saw this same thing happen out here at Disneyland with the Galaxy's Edge reservations. They were gone within minutes, but only a small percentage of those people actually showed up. They just can't gauge how many people will abandon a reservation until they have a few months worth of data. Then they can make the needed adjustments.

Polls can be written is such a way to get the desired result. In any event, Disney will do whatever it feels is best for the shareholders, be that opening Disneyland or not.

In the case of Disneyland they also must get the OK from the governor if they wish to reopen.