Disneyland To Open Sept. 16th?

[flutas]

Informally? Perhaps. But Disney would need a formal date to take any further action after they got bit in July, so an informal date would be useless to them. I've been eagerly awaiting news that my friends in Attractions had been called back, but so far none of them have and I doubt they will until a solid date is agreed upon. It's not really up to Newsom either to just pick an arbitrary date, as it will be dependent on the data and numbers coming back on virus transmission. Any date will always be contingent on the virus numbers being at a reasonable safe level. Newsom's office can advise when they will allow a reopening, but it will always be a risk that the numbers won't pan out, or will force another closure at another point in time. Disney will have to accept some risk in deciding to reopen.

A lot of the work you are seeing completed right now, was work that was to be completed in June and July, that was intended to be done before opening. Since they stopped calling back CMs when word came down that they would not get approval to reopen, those work items have been worked on by a smaller crew over a longer period of time. While they have continued to get things ready for reopening, the majority of the work (which they pegged at six weeks initially) can't be completed until CMs return to property.

I think we have seen a ramp up of work being done in the past 1-2 weeks though, both at DLR and USH. It could be nothing, but it could also be them preparing in advance for an announcement they know is coming.

I also wonder what work you think can't be done "until CMs return to property" as they already have CMs on property just a much leaner team than normal.

Even if the CMs could get the park ready to open within 2 weeks, they will still need time to implement the reservation system, and ensure that hotel guests and guests purchasing tickets have the time required to property plan for and book a vacation.

The reservation system was already a thing with FlexPass. They will either just be expanding that system out to cover all passholders, or using the one that WDW in Florida has been using for 2+ months now. As for vacations, DLR is much more a locals park. They won't "wait for people to plan a vacation" when WDW has proven that not nearly as many people want to go on vacation right now.

 

[el_super]

I think we have seen a ramp up of work being done in the past 1-2 weeks though, both at DLR and USH. It could be nothing, but it could also be them preparing in advance for an announcement they know is coming.

I think we're seeing a lot more work items being completed, but not necessarily indicative of an increase in the work being started.

I also wonder what work you think can't be done "until CMs return to property" as they already have CMs on property just a much leaner team than normal.

It's not just a more leaner team, it's that the teams that were recalled back in June were mostly facilities and maintenance teams, that needed more time to prepare for the opening. As I mentioned, attractions hasn't been called back. We have heard here that Foods hasn't been called back. Main Entrance/Guest Services hasn't been called back. Those teams still need to be recalled to work, and they won't be able to be retrained on new and old policies until they return to work. Even after they get retrained, they will need a few days of test and adjust to prepare for guests.

The reservation system was already a thing with FlexPass. They will either just be expanding that system out to cover all passholders, or using the one that WDW in Florida has been using for 2+ months now. As for vacations, DLR is much more a locals park. They won't "wait for people to plan a vacation" when WDW has proven that not nearly as many people want to go on vacation right now.

I agree they will probably just port over the same system they have at WDW, but I still don't see them wanting to throw the gates open to the masses of local APs contributing almost no revenue. They need to get the word out to whatever is left of the tourism market in CA and get their hotels up and running at a not-insignificant capacity. If they follow the same strategy they implemented for WDW, they will prioritize hotel guests and ticket purchasing over AP holders, and leave only a small fraction of reservation windows open for the discounted admissions.

You're right though that WDW has proven that tourism is still pretty depressed at the moment, and it's been pretty hard on them over there. I'd imagine it would be far worse here. It would make sense to give themselves enough time between reservations being available and opening day, in order to tweak capacity numbers to more favorable conditions.

 

[flutas]

It's not just a more leaner team, it's that the teams that were recalled back in June were mostly facilities and maintenance teams, that needed more time to prepare for the opening. As I mentioned, attractions hasn't been called back. We have heard here that Foods hasn't been called back. Main Entrance/Guest Services hasn't been called back. Those teams still need to be recalled to work, and they won't be able to be retrained on new and old policies until they return to work. Even after they get retrained, they will need a few days of test and adjust to prepare for guests.

I would think the teams called back would be the ones needed to complete the "long" operations to restart.

Most of the teams you mentioned wouldn't realistically need to be called back until their training time. If we go from the 16th (the original reopening rumor date, but now also the date rumored for Newsom to be hosting a press conference at DLR).

7 day notice for callbacks puts us at Sept 23rd.
7 days of full training puts us at Sept 30th.
4 days of testing / training / adjusting / etc puts us at October 4th.

October 4th, which also just happens to be the start of FY21 for Disney.

It would be a very rushed timeline, but if a lot of the long running work has already been done honestly the thing that I think would take the longest is stocking. Which if merchandise has already been called back as mentioned earlier in this thread, could be progressing already.

I agree they will probably just port over the same system they have at WDW, but I still don't see them wanting to throw the gates open to the masses of local APs contributing almost no revenue. They need to get the word out to whatever is left of the tourism market in CA and get their hotels up and running at a not-insignificant capacity. If they follow the same strategy they implemented for WDW, they will prioritize hotel guests and ticket purchasing over AP holders, and leave only a small fraction of reservation windows open for the discounted admissions.

You're right though that WDW has proven that tourism is still pretty depressed at the moment, and it's been pretty hard on them over there. I'd imagine it would be far worse here. It would make sense to give themselves enough time between reservations being available and opening day, in order to tweak capacity numbers to more favorable conditions.

I think this is another different factor for DLR vs WDW. I think a majority of DLR passholders are on the monthly payment plan which does mean APs would be contributing to their overall revenue (normally they wouldn't, but due to them offering cancellations the "guaranteed" money from the payment plans isn't guaranteed at all). If they also offer the 30% discount for APs that would get APs spending on merch as well.

 

[Disney Irish]

I would think the teams called back would be the ones needed to complete the "long" operations to restart.

Most of the teams you mentioned wouldn't realistically need to be called back until their training time. If we go from the 16th (the original reopening rumor date, but now also the date rumored for Newsom to be hosting a press conference at DLR).

7 day notice for callbacks puts us at Sept 23rd.
7 days of full training puts us at Sept 30th.
4 days of testing / training / adjusting / etc puts us at October 4th.

October 4th, which also just happens to be the start of FY21 for Disney.

It would be a very rushed timeline, but if a lot of the long running work has already been done honestly the thing that I think would take the longest is stocking. Which if merchandise has already been called back as mentioned earlier in this thread, could be progressing already.



I think this is another different factor for DLR vs WDW. I think a majority of DLR passholders are on the monthly payment plan which does mean APs would be contributing to their overall revenue (normally they wouldn't, but due to them offering cancellations the "guaranteed" money from the payment plans isn't guaranteed at all). If they also offer the 30% discount for APs that would get APs spending on merch as well.

Not to mention that Disneyland already had a reservation system ready to go (or almost ready to go) for the July reopening. So its not like they would rebuild the system again for this reopening.

 

[el_super]

I would think the teams called back would be the ones needed to complete the "long" operations to restart.

For the most part yes, but there is still work that can't get started until an announcement is set. Another instance: the horticulture team won't start replacing flowers and plants until they know the park will be reopening.

October 4th, which also just happens to be the start of FY21 for Disney.

I don't think your timeline is that far off... if it's announced this week. Three to four weeks seems completely realistic.

I think this is another different factor for DLR vs WDW. I think a majority of DLR passholders are on the monthly payment plan which does mean APs would be contributing to their overall revenue (normally they wouldn't, but due to them offering cancellations the "guaranteed" money from the payment plans isn't guaranteed at all). If they also offer the 30% discount for APs that would get APs spending on merch as well.

I don't know... could they realistically start up charging AP holders for monthly payments, if those AP holders are not able to book a reservation? What if they are eligible to book but can't due to capacity? Do you start charging them, and then offer them refunds if they can't book? What if the reservations are limited to just 1 time per month? Could they realistically charge for that? The AP problem is the biggest issue surrounding the reopening.

 

[ThreadMaster5]

Something interesting has happening Wednesday in the Resort Area.

Not to burst anyone’s excitement bubble, but since he can’t specifically say what it is, it could be something smaller akin to what knotts is doing

 

[Askimosita]

Largest U.S. theme parks report no COVID-19 outbreaks since reopening

No outbreaks have been reported at Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, Six Flags, Legoland and Cedar Fair parks in Florida, Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Virginia and Mic…

www.ocregister.com

 

[Askimosita]

Largest U.S. theme parks report no COVID-19 outbreaks since reopening

No outbreaks have been reported at Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, Six Flags, Legoland and Cedar Fair parks in Florida, Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Virginia and Mic…

www.ocregister.com

Something tells me this is the science and data that Newsom will reference when acknowledging that theme parks may now reopen. And it’s timing is perfect to cushion the blow for many that will be upset that the theme parks may be reopening.
It even references the lack of outbreaks tied to Knott’s food events.

I will add this isn’t “the” article I don’t suppose because it doesn’t mention a Wednesday event. Doesn’t say anything about our theme parks reopening. But could be a preceding one.

 

[mickEblu]

Not to burst anyone’s excitement bubble, but since he can’t specifically say what it is, it could be something smaller akin to what knotts is doing

Yeah I thought about that too. Talk about a tease for the kids though! Cmon kids we re going to Disneyland.... to eat at Carnation Cafe! No rides

 

[el_super]

Something tells me this is the science and data that Newsom will reference when acknowledging that theme parks may now reopen.

There was no science or data provided in that article. Just anecdotal information regarding a vague concept of "outbreak."

The science and data that Newsom will be relying on, has been outlined in all of the documentation released by the governors office since March. Reopening theme parks will be dependent on current cases, rate of spread and hospital/ICU load.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Some new aerials here:

Disneyland Update - Spooky Skies Over An Empty Kingdom

What a week. We take to the sky to bring you aerial images of Disneyland and Disney California Adventure as they prepare for reopening, and there's a lot of progress to see. We also have

www.micechat.com

(Frontierland Bridge almost done, Tomorrowland entrance had more rocks knocked down, Snow White exterior uncovered, work on Carousel looks to have resumed).

 

[BayouShack]

Snow White‘s new palette looks good enough, but it does make it look very happy. The old one functioned to communicate that the ride is scary. This new version is still going to be 50% dark and spooky. Hopefully.

 

[DCBaker]

“Six months ago California’s amusement parks and attractions made the difficult decision to close voluntarily in response to COVID — and the impacts have been devastating,” Guerrero said in the statement. “Tens of thousands of jobs have been weighing in the balance. Hundreds of millions of tax revenue that support critical local, state, and federal programs, lost. And local businesses that rely on amusement parks continue to struggle, with many closing permanently.”

“Over those six months, parks crafted detailed plans to reopen — they include capacity reductions, face covering requirements, robust health and safety protocols for both guests and employees, and significant modifications to support physical distancing,” Guerrero said in the statement. “These practices will promote health and safety in ways that many activities Californians are currently engaging in won’t. However, in order to reopen, parks require guidance from the state and that guidance has not been forthcoming.”

Disney and Universal call on Newsom to reopen California theme parks

The Sacramento-based California Attractions and Parks Association represents Disneyland, Universal Studios, Knott’s Berry Farm, Six Flags Magic Mountain, SeaWorld San Diego, Legoland California, Si…

www.ocregister.com

 

[TP2000]

Factually incorrect. The hospitalization rate is still considered.

That information is not being tracked on the state website per county. And I can't find that information on the website, and it wasn't mentioned in the media as a statistic to be tracked.

What type of hospitilization rates are being "considered"? Is there a metric we should look at? A percentage of beds they are managing to? And why wouldn't they include that metric on the widely touted Four-Tier Color-Coded system released to much fanfare last month?

COVID-19 Home

covid19.ca.gov

They added in additional lag time due to the inconsistencies in getting timely test results back, but the data points being analyzed are exactly the same.

The 7-day lag in reporting was a wise move. There's a big difference in the way a 50 bed hospital in Modoc County operates compared to a 1,000 bed hospital in Los Angeles County operates (not to mention no 1970's Soap Opera ever used a 50 bed hospital to base their drama in!). Also, the reporting slows down over weekends and holiday periods, as the bureaucracy in Sacramento is just not set up to work past 4pm on a Friday.

The 7-day lag provides very accurate results once it's reported a week later, which solidifies the steep drop that places like Orange County have seen since the peak of cases in mid July.

 

[el_super]

That information is not being tracked on the state website per county. And I can't find that information on the website, and it wasn't mentioned in the media as a statistic to be tracked.

It is still available on the state website:

Tableau

public.tableau.com

And also on the county website:

COVID-19 Case Counts and Testing Figures | Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

.casecount-total { color: #ffffff; background-color: #1b3d6d; border-color: #1b3d6d; } .casecount-total-caption { font-style: italic; color: #636466; } .casecount-btn-panels { padding: 0 !important; border-top-left-radius: 15px !important; border-top-right-radius: 15px !important...

occovid19.ochealthinfo.com

Orange County had previously identified 750 COVID-19 related hospitalizations as the "danger zone" to be avoided:

https://1ccaxf2hhhbh1jcwiktlicz7-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/OC-hospital-crisis-care-strategy-metrics-July-6-2020.pdf

And regarding the new color coded tier system, The Governor stated clearly at the roll out that hospitalizations were still being factored in, even if the information was not being presented up front ( I would suspect as an effort not to confuse some people).

And there is also an “emergency brake” in case other markers the state had tracked on the old county watchlist, such as hospitalizations, go up significantly.​

​

“We’re going to be more stubborn this time,” Newsom said.​

​

The state will begin using the new system Monday but already is featuring a color-coded map on its website at https://covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/​

Purple, red, orange, yellow: California revamps pathway for counties to reopen amid coronavirus pandemic

Counties will now be grouped into one of four tiers that will determine how different sectors can operate.

www.mercurynews.com

 

[Askimosita]

@Darkbeer1 are we still anticipating something else from the Register or was that it?

 

[ThreadMaster5]

Yeah I thought about that too. Talk about a tease for the kids though! Cmon kids we re going to Disneyland.... to eat at Carnation Cafe! No rides

Boy oh boy if I did that to my kids..... they would lose their minds

 

[cmwade77]

@Darkbeer1 are we still anticipating something else from the Register or was that it?

Or was what it? I haven't seen anything from the OC Register and he said to expect it on Wednesday.

EDIT: Just found what you are probably referring to:

Disney and Universal call on Newsom to reopen California theme parks

The Sacramento-based California Attractions and Parks Association represents Disneyland, Universal Studios, Knott’s Berry Farm, Six Flags Magic Mountain, SeaWorld San Diego, Legoland California, Si…

www.ocregister.com

@Darkbeer1 I am hoping your something on Wednesday is more than just this.

 

[Askimosita]

Or was what it? I haven't seen anything from the OC Register and he said to expect it on Wednesday.

See the post by @DCBaker on the previous page. It is actually terrible news.
The register article shows that although Newsom kept saying “progress is being made,” it was fluff to keep us from pestering him about this anymore. In fact, while Newsom has been quoted by saying guidance is “forthcoming,” the executive director of California Attractions and Parks Association
directly said “guidance is not forthcoming.” It means newsom still never gave them anything to work towards or with. No guidance because it would give them a goal to work towards, and if they fulfill it, then he will have to let them open. He is purposely withholding that so they don’t open, because he doesn’t want them to yet, and now the theme park giants are upset and all the local business owners are upset that not only were they thrust into this economic headache, now Newsom is having press conferences where he is portraying these “dynamic talks” in a positive light with hope that “progress is being made” with no push to follow through on actually moving forward with this. The theme parks are pulling all the stops and now openly calling for these guidelines PUBLICALLY so they can reopen, and so the public can see that while they each provided their opening procedures months ago, he hasn’t given them anything. This is basically all that is left to do, because the Disney parks heads already made a few public comments about how they are “ready” and just waiting for the governor. Now that this is being spread public, all that is left is for those who care about theme parks in the media (ie OCR) to ask Newsom at his next press event and see if he will respond. Because I don’t actually see Disneyland moving to Texas lol.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Wednesday was a staged protest by the small business owners TBH.

 

[TP2000]

@Darkbeer1 are we still anticipating something else from the Register or was that it?

I think that might have been it, until the dynamic conversation in Sacramento is finally finished.

Here's some good news from the OC Register on the rapidly declining Covid cases in OC...

Number of COVID patients in ICUs at OC’s lowest level in 5 months

The Orange County Health Care Agency reported 44 new cases of the coronavirus as of Monday, Sept. 14, increasing the cumulative total to 50,974 cases.

www.ocregister.com

And the meat of the story from behind the paywall...

The county reported 193 patients in hospitals with the coronavirus on Monday. Down from 239 on Friday. The peak in the county was 722 confirmed hospitalizations on July 14. The county report showed there are 56 patients in ICUs as of Monday, the lowest number since April 16.

The Orange County Health Care Agency reported 44 new cases of the coronavirus as of Monday, Sept. 14, increasing the cumulative total to 50,974 cases.

The current seven-day average for positive tests dropped from 207 cases per day on Friday, Sept. 11, to 175 cases per day Monday.

The county’s breakdown of deaths by age is as follows:

• 85 and older: 31% (336)
• 75-84: 22% (234)
• 65-74: 20% (221)
• 55-64: 13% (156)
• 45-54: 9% (94)
• 35-44: 3% (30)
• 25-34: 1.3% (17)
• 18-24: <1% (4)
• 17 and younger: 0% (1)

Orange County had previously identified 750 COVID-19 related hospitalizations as the "danger zone" to be avoided:

Yes, and OC was also using the percentage metric of "less than 20% of ICU beds available" and "less than 20% of ventilators available".

If 750 Covid hospitilizations per day was the old danger zone, then today's rate of 175 Covid hospitilizations and dropping (in a County with 7,000 permanent hospital beds) should be great news! I bet there's more people in an OC hospital for a nose job or eyelid rejuvenation than there are for Covid today.