The people that tend to be the most upset about these changes are the ones that want to have all three: big new attractions, no crowds, and super cheap admission. They don't realize it's a give-and-take scenario.
The thing is, they Always increase the prices when there is a big new attraction. People seldom complain. Nobody complained at the jump in AP prices when Galaxy's Edge opened, because there was reason behind the increase.
With Reservations, Disney has complete control over crowds. They can adjust the # of available reservations on a day by day basis. They're simply trying to cut the # trying for reservations, rather than manipulating attendance themselves.
And there is nothing "super cheap" about admission to Disneyland. It and WDW are far and away the most expensive theme parks in the country. There is nothing "cheap" about buying a pass each year for $650 - $1,450. Multiply that by a family of 4, and you're talking about a couple of rent/mortgage payments.
People are more reasonable in dealing with these items than you might think. But this program is nothing like that, and goes too far, too fast. They are going from a top pass for roughly $1,400, that allowed admission 365 days a year, to a $3,000 pass that allows 48 admissions. And apparently, it's not simply 48 admissions for the year, it's going to be 4/month, and if you miss any along the way, you can't carry them over.
This is a money grab, pure and simple. Disney could have done a simpler program, like perhaps a # of reservations based Flex Pass, that would allow Disney to adjust each day's reservation availability, while still allowing people to visit more than a maximum # of times per month. It leaves me completely lost on why they instituted a Flex Pass in 2019, if they were planning on getting rid of the program over the short term. The Flex pass offered a great deal of "flexibility," but it also imposed no cap on # of visits you could have. If you wanted to come every day Monday-Thursday during January & February, the slowest months, you could.
There are 2 ways to achieve a certain $ of Sales. The Six Flags route of more passes at a lower price, or Disney's new practice of fewer passes at a higher price. This is why Disney probably will come out even. There are enough Disney addicts, who will pay the increased price, even though they're getting significantly less benefit than before. Leaving aside the crowdedness of the park, which is obviously a benefit. I guess it puts more of a premium on each individual visit, since you will be restricted on the # of visits you can have.
Coming full circle, the most striking example IMO, is that the top pass was $1,450 in 2020, and allowed one to visit every single day if they wanted. The top pass now, is supposedly $3,000, but caps # of visits at 48. That says money grab to me. But for Disney, even if they get half of those who had the Signature, they make the same amount of money.
If I had to guess, I'd say Disney will lose 40-50% of those who had AP's. If that was their goal, I feel they've achieved it with this new program.
