Depends on what they are trying to solve. Solving the crowding issue with the day pass price is a losing proposition. They should lower the price and use RESERVATIONS to prevent crowding. That's the technology approach.
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News Disneyland cancels Annual Pass program
- Thread starter DCBaker
- Start date
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
This is the big question, is Disney more interested in per day spending or annual spending?
As DL APs we probably spend $10,000 a year at DL between the passes, food, drinks, and merchandise and we typically go to WDW every other year for a week… about $4,000.
If they don’t bring back the AP program we’ll probably cut our DL trips to twice a year and make WDW a yearly trip.
So with no APs Disney will get around $6k from us per year ($2k for 2 DL weekend trips plus $4k for an annual WDW trip) compared to the $12k per year they’ve been getting from us with APs for the last decade (DL spending plus half our every other year WDW expenses).
$6k for 11 park days = $545 a day
$12k for 30 park days = $400 a day
In our case that extra $145 a day will cost them $6k a year.
chadwpalm
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Looks like the 60-day rollout has begun and the first three days in July are now open. If anyone wants to go over the 4th of July weekend you might want to start looking to reserve. I wonder if the majority of people don't realize July is opening up and still think the original 60 days is all that is open.
waltography
Well-Known Member
Yep! I was too lazy to add July because the dates haven't been going fast, but they are rolling the reservations.
el_super
Well-Known Member
Yeah but that also means that they are costing Disney more, per year, to provide them entertainment. An AP holder could end up spending 5x as much per year than a singular day guest, but if they go 10x per year, Disney still ends up losing out.
And do what... track how many rides they are riding per hour? How many shows or just tables they are taking up... per hour? Figuring out costs versus revenue per day is much easier.
Disney could sell out the parks tomorrow if they wanted to just by lowering the cost of admission. They can do it without the need for APs. Without the need for making a year long contract. They've basically saying exactly that: they want more flexibility to offer a product that both maximizes their income and improves the guest experience. Sell more tickets on days they need people to fill the gap, and increase prices on expected crowded days. They can't really do that when an AP is pre-selling days a year in advance.
What they don't get, is a way to engage people to keep coming to Disneyland over the course of the year. The benefit of the AP to Disney was locking in people to ONLY going to Disneyland for entertainment. That will definitely need to be addressed, and it's part of the reason you keep hearing them talk about a "loyalty program" as a replacement for the APs. More like a COSTCO membership that you pay yearly for, instead of an admission program.
As far as cutbacks? They just spent a fortune on Star Wars Land. It wouldn't surprise me if they made that decision to spend so much money, based on the plan to start cutting back on APs. A plan they would have started 10 years ago. And now the bill has come due.
el_super
Well-Known Member
It's really per-day.
And that's pretty much what they want. They want people to go less to the parks, while spending more (or the same). That's where the improved guest experience piece comes from. If fewer people are going, they can cut back on operating costs to make up the difference.
You already called APs losing out, yet you propose lowering the costs of admission and you don't call it losing out. You don't see the flaw in the argument. If Disney can't get people to return and spend money, it's a lost opportunity forever. Money has a time limit. Tomorrow, people will spend money on something else that comes up. So will Disney make decisions on what it can offer to guests? You call entertainment, operations, and employees as expenses (losing out). Sorry, it costs money to make money. It's a downward spiral for Disney to try to cutback when it should be expanding especially after Covid. Disney can't keep cutting back to prosperity.
A day visitor isn't a loyal customer. A loyalty program is AP in another word. If it chooses to not offer a multi-day pass, then what does it have instead to offer? Customers will choose to keep that money in their wallet, thus Disney will lose out to guests who would otherwise be in the parks and spending money.
flynnibus
Premium Member
Here's the thing... while you may have a large amount of disposable income and a tendency to spend that at Disney... your situation gets watered down as you go out over the larger population.
What always gets lost in the 'but I spend alot of money at DL' AP arguments is the simple fact that your disposable income does not increase with the number of times you visit. You may spend a higher percentage of your income at Disney the more you go, but your ability to spend at Disney will continue to decrease the more you go -- because you didn't start making more money, you are just spending more of the same pot of money at Disney.
So a diehard fan may spend far more of their disposable income at Disney based on percentage than a normal tourist - but that doesn't necessarily mean they outspend tourists. Because the AP is a single customer, while the tourist admissions are a different customer everytime.
Well off AP spend $10k a year at Disney, and goes say... 20 times.
A tourist maybe spends 3k for 4 days.
The AP spent more than the lone tourist... but the AP isn't compared to just the single tourist. The 4 day tourist is replaced by yet another tourist, with a fresh bank account, for the next set of days, and again. So the same 20 visits the AP made, could be 5 different 4 day tourists.. each spending 3k. That means 15k in tourist dollars vs 10k in 'loyalist' dollars... and the tourists aren't as bored with the same stuff everytime as the loyalist was either.
If you are spending 10k a year at DL... obviously tickets aren't your biggest portion of your spend. Would having to pay discount admission vs pre-paid admission really deter you from making the majority of your trips? For the AP population that are the 'frequent mini-vacationer' type... I find that hard to subscribe to. People may reduce how much they go, but I don't see it breaking their pattern.
el_super
Well-Known Member
If the average AP is spending $60 a visit, and the day guest is spending $125 dollars per visit, there is a lot of space between $60 and $125 to aim for. Maybe they want the APs to pay a minimum of $100 a visit. Still a discount, but more than what they got before. Maybe $80 or $85 per day is more reasonable.
If you look at the calendar for the costs of the one day tickets, you can see that the "value" of the tickets are getting pretty varied:
So you can see that they are trying to maximize their yield here... why would you not expect the same from a new kind of admission program? The old AP only offered a binary solution to admission value. Although the flexpass did sort of change that.
Yeah... so? This has been their thinking on improving the guest experience: people who come and see the place as too crowded might not come back. That's why they need to lower the attendance. They are betting that there are more people that would pay more for a better experience, than people who will only pay for a discounted experience.
No, but rather than trying to justify someone spending on an AP and making 10 trips per year, they can go back to maybe just adding ONE big attraction/promotion and encouraging people to visit once per year... as it was in the years before.
That is a good question. What could a loyalty program look like without giving away free admission?
They could offer a program similar to D23: a monthly newsletter, "insider" information and maybe some historical programs?
They could offer special events outside of the parks like character meet n' greets or exclusive food offerings.
Maybe a Downtown Disney exclusive lounge?
They could offer discounts for food and beverage, merchandise and even park admission.
They could even offer discounts on ancillary experiences like Adventures by Disney, Disney Cruise Line or Walt Disney World.
Disney+?
They could even offer free admissions to exclusive special event nights like Disneyland After Dark.
There's a lot they can do without giving away park admission for free, while still making it a compelling program.
Do you think people who buy multi-day tickets to be cheating the system or Disney losing out? It's only $72 per day if you buy a 5 day non-hopper pass. It costs $360. Using your numbers, the average AP is going for $60 and once per month. The AP costs $720. Did Disney lose out on $360? No, you already said those people are going in for free. $720 isn't free, but you say so.
I'm pretty sure people would pay more for a higher level of service, but you suggest they will cut back because of lower crowds like those low crowds are a feature in itself. It never was.
In the old days, I would wait many years for several new attractions than one BIG attraction. With APs, Disney did many monthly and seasonal promotions. That's considered entertainment that people will return for.
That's the same old thing without what people really want. I'm pretty sure the best loyalty program should include Disney+ as a feature. So subscribe without visiting the parks. It's at least one thing that could be valuable. The other stuff is lame. I would never pay for it.
CaptinEO
Well-Known Member
It is on same days but not on others. Holidays they need to charge double.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
The tickets are probably only 30% of our annual DL spending but because they are so expensive they entice us to use them to create value, resulting in more park spending. Without DL being a “cheap weekend” (because we’ve already prepaid for APs) we‘re more likely to spend our discretionary travel income elsewhere.
We normally rotate between a WDW trip and Europe for our major vacations and use DL for weekend trips, last year with DL closed we spent a week in WDW and a week in Honolulu, Disney lost out on about $5k because we spent that money in Hawaii. We still spent roughly the same amount of money on travel, Disney just didn’t get as much of it.
el_super
Well-Known Member
No, they're using a discount to encourage additional visits. The park hoppers aren't all that different from the AP. Disney is saying that offering the AP though, is offering too deep of a discount and that's why they are discontinuing it. I think we all understand that they will need to offer some form of discount to drive some level of attendance in the slower periods. That discounting just wont be in the form of a year long of pre-paid admission.
Of course it is! People are loving the experience of being able to go to the park and have wait times no longer than 30 minutes. If having all of the available entertainment options were necessary, no one would be at the park today.
Disney's method for calculating daily "value" in the park experience is rides per capita. Typically this is supposed to be held around 10 rides per day, per person. On days when attendance is supposed to be higher, they have to increase park hours to make it to 10 RPC.
In a situation where the park is empty, and people can get every single ride done within a few hours, they can leave satisfied without spending 16 hours at the park. Which means Disney can cut costs by reducing park operating hours. They can reduce ancillary entertainment because people can ride Space Mountain twice instead of seeing Mickey and the Magical Map. Maybe when they have fewer people in the park, they only need two registers at Stage Door instead of Four, and maybe one Guest Relations Hostess at an info stand instead of two. they can provide the exact same level of service, with fewer Cast Members and fewer expenses.
If you had an AP, you were already paying for some of this stuff already.
The only discounts acceptable to you is NOT APs, which doesn't count because it's free or too low of a discount. That's not logical. You don't know how people use their APs. It varies.
Do you even think APs go on all rides all the time? Not every visit. The theme parks make money when they remain open. Cutting hours and entertainment doesn't help to generate income within the parks. This is increasingly ridiculous. I can't tell if this is good for either Disney or the guest.
I do enjoy watching shows, parades, fireworks on a visit, which will take time away from rides because they are time commitments to see them. Yet low crowds means we have no use for them. That's the wonderful future despite Covid which makes them impossible today.
If I had an AP, certainly I would have them so why would I pay for them without an AP? Shaking my head. Most of those benefits are useless. Why would I remotely be interested in a special event in Downtown Disney and outside the parks? Are you that afraid of giving an inch to a Disney fan?
flynnibus
Premium Member
Yes, but even by your own unsolicited estimate, the worst case was only losing half the spend you give them now. That leaves a lot of wiggle room between 'worst case' and tradeoffs they can make. This psyche of 'entice us to use them' can come in many different forms... without the AP's unlimited uses.
For instance, imagine if Disney saw the typical AP used their pass for 12 days a year. Disney could create a program that offered 15 days a year for a pre-paid price. Why 15? Because people would be enticed to use up things they already paid for... and by making the number a bit higher than what they would have previously done... they create a bit of a pull to generate more visits.
Some people would be upset it's not 'unlimited' - but marketing would push the agenda it fits you already! etc.
Lots of ways Disney can create the attributes they want - without having to give away the farm with unfettered use.
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Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
Time will tell and I’m curious what they’ll come up with… if Disney comes up with something that works for us they’ll get our money, if they don’t other places will.
I just think they are playing with fire, when I started going to DL in 2013 90% of my vacation money went to Disney, in 2016 we started taking European vacations (ironically to do the DL Paris RunDisney weekend) and now Europe eats up a big chunk of out vacation dollars, after swimming with turtles this year (one of the most amazing things I’ve ever done) I can say without hesitation that Hawaii will now be part of our vacation rotation and also consume a significant part of our vacation dollars. Disney has gone from receiving 90% of our vacation spending in 2013 to 60% in 2019 to likely 30% in the future.
Every time we venture out of our Disney fandom bubble we find new adventures that ultimately result in less of our money ending up in Disneys pockets, we are diehard Disney fans so they’ll always get a portion of our spending (we still plan to visit the Tokyo, Shanghai, and Hong Kong parks and DL Paris is our favorite park so it’ll continue to be our ”base” for European vacations) but that portion seems to be decreasing yearly as the prices continuously rise and other destinations become an equal priced alternative.
How is 12 visits a year considered unfettered or unlimited use? On an individual basis, people aren't abusing their passes.
It's amazing that Disney already showed us how to do it with the Flex Pass and the current day pass situation. RESERVATIONS. That's how they control crowds.
It's amazing that Disney already showed us how to do it with the Flex Pass and the current day pass situation. RESERVATIONS. That's how they control crowds.
el_super
Well-Known Member
Reservations only get you so far. You can have people who book reservations with little intention of using them. Plans can change. Maybe some reservations are too easy to get and you need to cull demand? Or you want to shift demand from some days to other days.
The flex pass KIND of did this with their "good to go" versus the "reservation required" days, but my guess is that Disney wants to add a lot more flexibility to that kind of system and introduce the same multi-tiered value calculation to whatever system will replace the APs.
Which is why I think they may introduce a discount system that still relies on paying some form of "market" price for the day. If you want a reservation for Christmas Day or the 4th of July, you will pay more for this day, even if you are part of this membership program, and you would for a random Tuesday in October
It may be in the form of cash, but it could also be a kind of credit system. Maybe a new "AP" is loaded with 50 credits to start, and days vary between 5 to 10 credits each.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
Interesting idea, kind of a DVC approach, buy as many points as you think you’ll need.
Flex Pass already have safe guards for no shows (uncancelled reservations).
Disney can further sell twice as many Flex Passes if they alternate the blockout dates for weekend and weekday entry like Flex Pass A gets Friday/Saturdays 1 and 3 and Sundays -Thurs 2 and 4, Flex Pass B gets Fridays/Saturdays 2 and 4, and Sundays-Thurs 1 and 3, etc.
Your idea of a discount program is just as well forget about it. I'd rather just keep my money in my pocket in that case. Why should I tie up a few hundred dollars if I have absolute no plans on going for awhile?
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