Eric Graham
Well-Known Member
I would bank on the S&P 500 which has doubled since the early 2000s
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Disney stock...
- Thread starter Darth Figment
- Start date
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Welcome to the world of short term speculation.
Eric Graham
Well-Known Member
Yes, it is odd that the market is down 500 points and Disney isn't following that trend. But I believe the Disney stock is down for the year..
DIS went up during lockdowns because everyone was home watching TV.
While we're not in lockdowns, we're in a pseudo-self-imposed lockdown as many, many people are staying home because of Omicron. Even if they're well (asymptomatic), they're quarantining. Lots of businesses temporarily closed. Schools back to Zoom.
That's good business news for home entertainment... again.
It'll hurt 6 months from now because a lot of shoots are also closing down for a week or two because of COVID positivity.
While we're not in lockdowns, we're in a pseudo-self-imposed lockdown as many, many people are staying home because of Omicron. Even if they're well (asymptomatic), they're quarantining. Lots of businesses temporarily closed. Schools back to Zoom.
That's good business news for home entertainment... again.
It'll hurt 6 months from now because a lot of shoots are also closing down for a week or two because of COVID positivity.
Eric Graham
Well-Known Member
I still remember when we were at Disney two weeks before they shut everything down initially because of Covid.
Eric Graham
Well-Known Member
They're still filming a lot in Atlanta I believe.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Disney used to be a safe haven stock when rates rise, looks like that could be happening again.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Why would she about to be fired when they JUST renewed her contract? One quarter being down doesn't mean someone gets fired, especially at her level.
Why do you think they can't meet the 2024 targets for D+? In reality they already beat their original 2024 goal within the first 16 months of operation. D+ still has a lot of growth especially in emerging markets where Star and D+ are bundled and recently launched. And so by 2024 they should have over 200M subs, which is why their revised goal was 230M-260M, which should be doable.
Netflix is pretty saturated in the markets they are in. Netflix ain't the only game in town anymore, and the subs are reflecting that. But they too will rebound as time goes on.
The real question is who is going to hit 300M subs first, D+ or Netflix. If you had asked that in 2019 at D+ launch you'd say Netflix. But with the growth of D+ over the last 2 years its now any ones ball game. It'll be interesting to watch.
The biggest issue for Netflix is their US and Canada signups are just about maxed out. Their growth is in India and Disney id crushing them there. Disney has many more counties to enter by the end of 2022 and will continue to close the gap in total customers. In my opinion Disney will reach 300 million first and will reach 350 million by the end of 2026. However, well over half of them will be from the extremely low cost Asian customer, just like Netfix is finding.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I agree, it’ll be interesting to watch.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
OR.....
Investors are starting to realize that DIS is not Netflix, so what happens to one doesn't affect the other. Sell off was reactionary, not based on anything related to DIS fundamentals. DIS is sitting on a whole lot of content it has yet to release including YEARS worth of Fox content. Not to mention all the content being hosted on other platforms like Netflix that will slowly start to be reclaimed. And new content being created. All that should equate to D+ subs increasing over time. DIS is in a way better position than Netflix long term in the streaming wars.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Or it means that it was the beginning of the trading day and that volume increases throughout the day.
By midday its already hit 6M, with an average of 11M, its doing just fine.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Well what do you know, 30 mins left in the trading day and volume is now above its normal 11M average, and its price is still up for the day.
You have to stop looking for the "other shoe to drop" negative outcome in DIS stock.
Lets keep the bulls running. Wall Street today reactive positively on news that some Russian troops are withdrawing from Ukraine.
Slpy3270
Well-Known Member
It's held up better than the Dow overall which is surprising, considering Russia is a pretty big Disney market in Europe. Guessing people don't expect them to leave that market over this geopolitical brouhaha.