Disney Stock

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I wouldn't discount the Studios revenue just yet. If they can get a solid VOD day and date release program going it could help prop up the other falling segments.
Oh I agree...they could find strength where it hasn’t really been before. But the revenues of movies is usually in the 10-15% range. People fail to realize that there is very little money from Disney in releasing movies into the box office...mostly gobbled up in production and distribution.

But it could help to take more control of the outlets/content.

Long term closure of the parks is the big thing right now...they could really be racked by that.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Oh I agree...they could find strength where it hasn’t really been before. But the revenues of movies is usually in the 10-15% range. People fail to realize that there is very little money from Disney in releasing movies into the box office...mostly gobbled up in production and distribution.

But it could help to take more control of the outlets/content.

Long term closure of the parks is the big thing right now...they could really be racked by that.
That is where a VOD solution might be beneficial, setting up a different revenue breakdown. So say out of a $15-20 ticket normally Disney would get 50-60% (on average) of a ticket sale. They could end up making more for a VOD rental say 75-80% and the VOD service (if not done through Disney+) would make the rest. I would think that the major theaters like Cinemark, AMC, and Regal would eat that up since it would be pure profit. Compare that to a normal movie release where they end up paying out all the theater employees and other costs before profit.

Anyways it'll be interesting to see over the next couple weeks and more movies get delayed. And what happens with Universal and the Trolls movie that is heading to VOD in Friday.

Parks closure is a big deal, but I think it'll rebound faster than back in 2001.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Parks closure is a big deal, but I think it'll rebound faster than back in 2001.

I worked in an emergency ops/command capacity during September 2001 and the months after...and moved over to TDO for a stint afterwards...

You provably don’t want my opinion on this 😎

But an educated guess is that it depends on the endpoint. As in can they figure out quickly if there is a second wave/spike?

People would flood Disney as a form of mental relief...but only AFTER the all clear and that is far from known.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I worked in an emergency ops/command capacity during September 2001 and the months after...and moved over to TDO for a stint afterwards...

You provably don’t want my opinion on this 😎

But an educated guess is that it depends on the endpoint. As in can they figure out quickly if there is a second wave/spike?

People would flood Disney as a form of mental relief...but only AFTER the all clear and that is far from known.

Well WDW is going to be a different animal with the tourists. DLR however will get its crowds back a lot quicker given its builtin audience with APs. So once the all clear is given and DLR opens back up I expect it'll take a couple days but by the end of the 1st week the parks will be full of APs, my prediction.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Well WDW is going to be a different animal with the tourists. DLR however will get its crowds back a lot quicker given its builtin audience with APs. So once the all clear is given and DLR opens back up I expect it'll take a couple days but by the end of the 1st week the parks will be full of APs, my prediction.
Disneyland? Oh yeah...that’s a built in “community”...

The problem is it’s not the more important of the two by quite a lot
 

Slpy3270

Well-Known Member
Parks closure is a big deal, but I think it'll rebound faster than back in 2001.

The economic situation will be nothing like 2001. Millions of people will lose their jobs within weeks and most people won't be able to afford a vacation by the time this pandemic passes. Park attendance isn't going to rebound like magic. It'll take years to recover.

What's worse, Fitch just downgraded Disney's credit outlook to negative because of all the segments that will be destroyed in the near term by the pandemic will lead to pressure in regards to their $48 billion debt. This could force the company to make asset divestitures they otherwise don't want or didn't think about just so they could still be in a position to pay their debts.

Disney's long term strategy is screwed either way.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
The economic situation will be nothing like 2001. Millions of people will lose their jobs within weeks and most people won't be able to afford a vacation by the time this pandemic passes. Park attendance isn't going to rebound like magic. It'll take years to recover.

What's worse, Fitch just downgraded Disney's credit outlook to negative because of all the segments that will be destroyed in the near term by the pandemic will lead to pressure in regards to their $48 billion debt. This could force the company to make asset divestitures they otherwise don't want or didn't think about just so they could still be in a position to pay their debts.

Disney's long term strategy is screwed either way.
Interesting, the Fitch rating doesn't appear to be announced yet, have a source? Also Moody's has DIS still at its A2 rating saying they have enough cash on-hand to deal with their long term debt for their entire FY2020. That was as of yesterday, tomorrow maybe different.

Not saying you're wrong but its going to be a wait and see outlook for now. Sure Fitch and others have to give worst case scenarios but its just that worst case not what is for sure going to happen. We just don't know yet. If this thing turns around a lot quicker than we think then the market will also turn around a lot quicker. Again is going to have to be wait and see. For now I'm not worry about DIS long term debt. If we go into the fall still on a countrywide shutdown I may have a different opinion, but for now I'm not worried.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
As far as the market goes...have to stop the bleeding...can’t lose 9% one day and gain 6% back the next...

I wonder if it will occur to traders - eventually - that it’s in all their interests to flatten it? “Financial collusion”? Up 500 one day...down 500 the next?

Recession is assured...I think most of the world would rather deal with that and move on.

...Sorry for the worry rant😱
 

Disneyfanman

Well-Known Member
Disney is vulnerable. I’m a fan, a stockholder, and consumer. The company of today will be forced to fundamentally change. People argued that the parks wouldn’t close. They did. I agree with multiple parts of this thread. They will have to sell assets. They are vulnerable to a takeover. They could, in theory, file for bankruptcy. Right now they are bleeding cash at an unsustainable rate. Nothing is off the table.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Disney is vulnerable. I’m a fan, a stockholder, and consumer. The company of today will be forced to fundamentally change. People argued that the parks wouldn’t close. They did. I agree with multiple parts of this thread. They will have to sell assets. They are vulnerable to a takeover. They could, in theory, file for bankruptcy. Right now they are bleeding cash at an unsustainable rate. Nothing is off the table.
Restructuring is not off the table including future employment of cast.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Disney is vulnerable. I’m a fan, a stockholder, and consumer. The company of today will be forced to fundamentally change. People argued that the parks wouldn’t close. They did. I agree with multiple parts of this thread. They will have to sell assets. They are vulnerable to a takeover. They could, in theory, file for bankruptcy. Right now they are bleeding cash at an unsustainable rate. Nothing is off the table.
The risk of any stockholder agreeing to a takeover for anything near the current price is crazy. I would vote forca $200.00 a share price but purchased more with my quarterly dividends from all my investments. I am extremely bullish on the stock in the long run and look forward to finding out how many Europeans and Indians sign up for Disney Plus in the first days and week.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The risk of any stockholder agreeing to a takeover for anything near the current price is crazy. I would vote forca $200.00 a share price but purchased more with my quarterly dividends from all my investments. I am extremely bullish on the stock in the long run and look forward to finding out how many Europeans and Indians sign up for Disney Plus in the first days and week.
...haven’t been watching the news lately, eh?🤪
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Everything. Besides Disney Parks and Studios you have ESPN(remember sports are all canceled or postponed) Broadway as mentioned, Disney Cruise Line, other Travel ventures like Adventures by Disney, other Resort hotels in FL outside of parks and the Carolinas or Alauni, Disney Music record labels, regional entertianment(all of the ON ICE traveling entertainment shows) and Disney Plus will eventually be caught up with as new content is slowing down because everything in production went on halt. That is the issue with Disney being primarily in entertainment, all forms were effected this time with no short term end in sight. Also, the franchised toy lines had hiccups in production because they were being manufactured in China, so even merchandising took a hit.
 

cmwade77

Well-Known Member
Well WDW is going to be a different animal with the tourists. DLR however will get its crowds back a lot quicker given its builtin audience with APs. So once the all clear is given and DLR opens back up I expect it'll take a couple days but by the end of the 1st week the parks will be full of APs, my prediction.
Unfortunately, entertainment will probably have to be dramatically reduce and that is what A LOT of APs go for, Disneyland has already been loosing passholders with the recent entertainment cuts, this will make it worse. You will see some going for whatever final days they have on their passes, but far fewer renewals without dramatic decreases in price and I mean making highest end APs be in the $300 range or less.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, entertainment will probably have to be dramatically reduce and that is what A LOT of APs go for, Disneyland has already been loosing passholders with the recent entertainment cuts, this will make it worse. You will see some going for whatever final days they have on their passes, but far fewer renewals without dramatic decreases in price and I mean making highest end APs be in the $300 range or less.
And we're assuming these APs still are not part of the millions of people laid off and furloughed and still want to spend their days in the parks?
 

cmwade77

Well-Known Member
And we're assuming these APs still are not part of the millions of people laid off and furloughed and still want to spend their days in the parks?
Well, that is a valid point too, but I know this hold true for me personally. I luckily am in a profession that is considered an essential service and we have plenty of work and probably going to be even more since we are involved in the design of housing hospitals, schools, etc. And if the entertainment isn't improved, I am unlikely to renew unless there are dramatic price reductions, especially if competitors like Knott's keep finding ways to improve their Entertainment offerings and offer reasonable prices.
 

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