Disney Stock Approaching 9 Year Low

[networkpro]

That's another thing. Shorts should not do so against a company at the very first sign of trouble. It's just nothing but sowing FUD. You don't have to make money off a company's misery to call attention to something being wrong. And people should not do shorts at times of economic downturn. That should've been re-outlawed after 2008.

The stock is really 115 right now, if you take the shorts out. Shorts don't "keep the market honest," they just keep the market as a casino. It always has been, but shorts just make it more blatant. Shorts artificially decrease the price and make companies undervalued, and lead them into self-fulfilling death spirals.

Well, Disney isn't going to fold, buster. All you can do is stew in your own bitterness and impotence in failing to drive the company into the ground.

Nope, I have absolutely no exposure to the DIS grief train. The stock is currently $81.64 no matter whatever financial sophism you may employ.

 

[Mmoore29]

Nope, I have absolutely no exposure to the DIS grief train. The stock is currently $81.64 no matter whatever financial sophism you may employ.

Disney and Charter will soon come to terms and both companies will see an increase. Step one of the journey. Step one of the journey.

 

[BrianLo]

Disney is not going to fully divest of ABC, Disney Channel, ESPN, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm or Fox, no matter how many times you keep talking about. That would be self-destructive and serve no purpose. Disney would not do well back to its 1995 size. It'll get trampled by the other studios, who won't slim down anytime soon. So why do a panic move like that? They're not going to. There's no hostile takeover, no acquisition by another company, no bankruptcy on the horizon. Disney is on a solid foundation. Deal with it.

Sorry, you are first of all confusing me with someone else and do not understand my actual stance. I don't think they are divesting, nor do I think the company is a bad value. Quite the contrary, I think D+ will be profitable Q2 2024, at the latest (possibly Q1).

I was making an argument to the contrary that the current market cap doesn't align with the underlying book value of all the assets. Not that they are going to sell them all, just what everything under the hood is worth.

 

[Mmoore29]

Sorry, you are first of all confusing me with someone else and do not understand my actual stance. I don't think they are divesting, nor do I think the company is a bad value. Quite the contrary, I think D+ will be profitable Q2 2024, at the latest (possibly Q1).

I was making an argument to the contrary that the current market cap doesn't align with the underlying book value of all the assets. Not that they are going to sell them all, just what everything under the hood is worth.

Sorry, I didn't mean to make you feel uncomfortable. I just wanted to vent.

 

[Disney Irish]

I really think this is heading into a good buying territory. What's the worse case scenario here, really? The company being sold for parts?

The parts are currently worth a lot more than the whole market cap implies. Each park is worth like 5-10 billion for starters. Maybe more in the case of MK and Disneyland. The entire WDW complex alone could likely fetch 50.

Each Studio is worth at least 10+; Hulu is valued at 30; D+ has to be worth at least twice that with Netflix as a single entity being worth more than the entire Disney company.

Then we have major assets like EPSN, Fox studios, Consumer Products, a niche cruise line. Dying but still valuable Linear Networks.


Really the market is quite sour on the company as it currently stands, there is absolutely no premium for the underlying assets.

Could it go lower? Ya I certainly guess so, but there comes a point when it's on a fire sale and it feels like we are heading there or have arrived.

When the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole, then you know the valuation is off...

 

[WoundedDreamer]

One question I have... At one point does Disney exit the Direct to Consumer market? I mean, at a certain point you should cut your losses, right? Why don't they go to Amazon, Apple, Comcast, or Netflix and sign a multi-year deal for Disney content? Then Disney can return to focusing on what it's good at- storytelling.

The streaming field is brutal. Why fight the streamers when you can join them?

 

[TP2000]

None of the fundamentals of their business segments are “improving” with no relief in sight…not a one. Bad trends.

The overall economic outlook is not good…they keep diverting to individual components to create “new narratives”…but the reality is everyone is leveraged to the hilt and the debts can never be paid…from the world bank down to the CM living off 192 and working at MK stroller rental.

Randomly... This morning I watched a YouTube video about China's current economic collapse and their long-term demographic problems that won't allow a mid-term or long-term economic recovery.

Basically, Communist China got old before they could get rich. And the One Child policy destroyed them.

Disney is so heavily invested in China. Why? Disney can't even get most of their movies past the Communist censors there any more. Why is Disney even there with two money-sucking Parks complexes? What future does that hold for Burbank?

 

[BrianLo]

One question I have... At one point does Disney exit the Direct to Consumer market? I mean, at a certain point you should cut your losses, right? Why don't they go to Amazon, Apple, Comcast, or Netflix and sign a multi-year deal for Disney content? Then Disney can return to focusing on what it's good at- storytelling.

The streaming field is brutal. Why fight the streamers when you can join them?

They definitely are never exiting the DTC market. It’s generating 20 billion a year of revenue currently at discounted price structures.

Maybe they sell off hotstar (or at least massively slow its roll) or find a partner for ESPN, but D+ / Hulu aren’t going anywhere.

The least likely to exit the field of streaming are Netflix (obviously) followed by Disney. The tech companies thereafter followed by maybe Max then the other studios. The niche upstarts taking up the tale end.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Randomly... This morning I watched a YouTube video about China's current economic collapse and their long-term demographic problems that won't allow a mid-term or long-term economic recovery.

Basically, Communist China got old before they could get rich. And the One Child policy destroyed them.

Disney is so heavily invested in China. Why? Disney can't even get most of their movies past the Communist censors there any more. Why is Disney even there with two money-sucking Parks complexes? What future does that hold for Burbank?

They pumped money in to keep the sweatshops Flowing in 1995-2005

Why Iger kept going? Beyond me. Add that one to the list

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They definitely are never exiting the DTC market. It’s generating 20 billion a year of revenue currently at discounted price structures.

Maybe they sell off hotstar (or at least massively slow its roll) or find a partner for ESPN, but D+ / Hulu aren’t going anywhere.

The least likely to exit the field of streaming are Netflix (obviously) followed by Disney. The tech companies thereafter followed by maybe Max then the other studios. The niche upstarts taking up the tale end.

It’s gonna cost them $20 bil a year in content to keep the subs up…

That’s the elephant in the room about DTC.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

When the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole, then you know the valuation is off...

I’ve seen it all..

Did you sleep through the 80’s and 90’s?
The concept of “break up and profit” is pretty much what modern Wall Street is built on.

they have zero desire to “raise the value of the whole”. There’s far less money in that.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’ve seen it all..

Did you sleep through the 80’s and 90’s?
The concept of “break up and profit” is pretty much what modern Wall Street is built on.

they have zero desire to “raise the value of the whole”. There’s far less money in that.

All I said was the valuations are off. Never said there wasn't a reason why they were.

Also post-2000s Wall Street is more about M&A to increase profit than break up and sell for parts. Hence why the rumors of Apple buying Disney whole keep floating around.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

All I said was the valuations are off. Never said there wasn't a reason why they were.

Also post-2000s Wall Street is more about M&A to increase profit than break up and sell for parts. Hence why the rumors of Apple buying Disney whole keep floating around.

Here’s what we can say:

1. Disney is neither going bankrupt nor being broken up anytime soon.
2. Disney is currently struggling and on a downward trajectory.

Both things can be and are true…currently.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

They definitely are never exiting the DTC market. It’s generating 20 billion a year of revenue currently at discounted price structures.

Maybe they sell off hotstar (or at least massively slow its roll) or find a partner for ESPN, but D+ / Hulu aren’t going anywhere.

The least likely to exit the field of streaming are Netflix (obviously) followed by Disney. The tech companies thereafter followed by maybe Max then the other studios. The niche upstarts taking up the tale end.

What this industry seems to need more than anything is consolidation. These companies are spending billions in marketing, web services maintenance, and content acquisition. They are bleeding each other dry. Apple, Amazon, and Comcast have a lot of leeway to keep on fighting. And Netflix is in an existential contest. Why not sign a deal with one of these firms for a licensing deal? Disney can dump the overhead they were spending onto other firms. Let tech companies do the tech stuff and Disney focus on storytelling. This would give one of the other streamers room to increase pricing with one less major competitor. It would also reduce the strain on creatives to produce ever more content.

What would Apple, Netflix, Amazon, or Comcast spend for the Disney catalogue? They would also be paying for the Disney+ subscriber pool. 5 billion a year? More? Imagine if instead of worrying about subscriber numbers, Disney could count on a reliable licensing fee. And like that Disney would be making money from streaming. And if for whatever reason Netflix isn't treating Disney well, they can always dump them and go to Amazon or Apple.

The streaming wars are like WW1 belligerents locked in endless trench warfare. Why be one of the belligerents when Disney can be the one selling the weapons to the highest bidder?

 

[Disney Irish]

Here’s what we can say:

1. Disney is neither going bankrupt nor being broken up anytime soon.
2. Disney is currently struggling and on a downward trajectory.

Both things can be and are true…currently.

I agree both things are true currently.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree both things are true currently.

Now do you want to agree that Bob needs to go and go 3 for 3?

 

[Disney Irish]

Now do you want to agree that Bob needs to go and go 3 for 3?

And bring in who?

See that's the problem, all you Bob haters scream at the top of your lungs that Bob needs to go but then never say who should replace him. So tell me who should replace him, like an actual name, and maybe I'll agree with you.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And bring in who?

See that's the problem, all you Bob haters scream at the top of your lungs that Bob needs to go but then never say who should replace him. So tell me who should replace him, like an actual name, and maybe I'll agree with you.

Many executives out there

The idea “only bob can do it…” might have just been floated by Zenia?

 

[Disney Irish]

Many executives out there

The idea “only bob can do it…” might have just been floated by Zenia?

So you don’t have a name, got it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So you don’t have a name, got it.

I don’t run on the inner circles of entertainment, finance and commodities…

So I’m not the ideal head hunter

But I can tell what failing management looks like from the cheap seats

Got it?