Disney Stock Approaching 9 Year Low

[WoundedDreamer]

So down $4 since the quarterly call…which was terrible and should have been taken as such…and down $7 since the computer generated bump the next day?

That tracks…

I guess I failed in my prediction…I said $79.99 by 16:30 EST on 9/1.

Failure…I’ll need some time alone now

I'm just going to say that your guess was pretty spot on!

 

[Lilofan]

So down $4 since the quarterly call…which was terrible and should have been taken as such…and down $7 since the computer generated bump the next day?

That tracks…

I guess I failed in my prediction…I said $79.99 by 16:30 EST on 9/1.

Failure…I’ll need some time alone now

Christine McCarthy knew something was brewing. She sold her shares in the last 24 months and cashed out to the tune of $9M.

 

[networkpro]

Disney was $20 at the end of Eisner's era. It's 4.25 times that. Disney's market cap was $28 billion in 2004. Disney's market cap now is over $160 billion. This is a perfectly healthy company, and it's nowhere near the Eisner lows.

That's a market cap of 149 Billion today.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney was $20 at the end of Eisner's era. It's 4.25 times that. Disney's market cap was $28 billion in 2004. Disney's market cap now is over $160 billion. This is a perfectly healthy company, and it's nowhere near the Eisner lows.

Hey junior…Check out what the market caps of ALL companies were then?
…make sure you put your google search timeline on “ancient” to do it

Christine McCarthy knew something was brewing. She sold her shares in the last 24 months and cashed out to the tune of $9M.

She knew it was a house of cards and wasn’t gonna keep going upward no matter what…

 

[Mmoore29]

That's a market cap of 149 Billion today.

Yet again, you just move the goalposts, especially with anything Eisner right now. Was he a screwup or was he a visionary who was the best for Disney? You can't make up your minds, all that matters is that you're right and everyone else is wrong.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yet again, you just move the goalposts, especially with anything Eisner right now. Was he a screwup or was he a visionary who was the best for Disney? You can't make up your minds, all that matters is that you're right and everyone else is wrong.

What was Microsoft’s market cap in 2004?
What is it now?

Is it 800% more now?

As usually…you miss the forest as someone smacks you over the head with a tree

 

[Mmoore29]

What was Microsoft’s market cap in 2004?
What is it now?

Is it 800% more now?

As usually…you miss the forest as someone smacks you over the head with a tree

Just answer me this one question you and others have completely avoided:

You all say there were realistic alternatives to Eisner besides Iger in 2005. BUT YOU NEVER NAME THEM. Who were they? Why would they have been better? Just tell me that. I imagine of course I'll disagree with you and say they wouldn't have worked at all. But at least I want names.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just answer me this one question you and others have completely avoided:

You all say there were realistic alternatives to Eisner besides Iger in 2005. BUT YOU NEVER NAME THEM. Who were they? Why would they have been better? Just tell me that. I imagine of course I'll disagree with you and say they wouldn't have worked at all. But at least I want names.

Well now I’ll tell you because I WAS OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER…

Roy dropped the proxy fight with Eisner and they felt the “stability” of the internal guy was best.

Eisner went away (like he should have an unlike what the weasel did)
Roy was sick and died

So where there OTHER candidates? Of course there were!!! As there is now if you aren’t caught up in your boards internal BS

…but they never looked for them then and Iger is trying to desperately lie his way around looking for then now

This ain’t hard, junior

 

[Mmoore29]

Well now I’ll tell you because I WAS OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER…

Roy dropped the proxy fight with Eisner and they felt the “stability” of the internal guy was best.

Eisner went away (like he should have an unlike what the weasel did)
Roy was sick and died

So where there OTHER candidates? Of course there were!!! As there is now if you aren’t caught up in your boards internal BS

…but they never looked for them then and Iger is trying to desperately lie his way around looking for then now

This ain’t hard, junior

You still haven't given any NAMES. I'm asking for names. You completely duck and run when I ask for names.

Name the alternatives that were realistic candidates for the job.

 

[networkpro]

Yet again, you just move the goalposts, especially with anything Eisner right now. Was he a screwup or was he a visionary who was the best for Disney? You can't make up your minds, all that matters is that you're right and everyone else is wrong.

Why are you trotting out your Eisner strawman on a donkey to this slaughter? Eisner and his posse at least revitalized the television and movie business and were successful until he lost Frank Wells who wasn't afraid to be blunt and tell him when the emperor had no clothes. That's when Roy Disney's revolt removed him as Chairman of the board and he stepped down as CEO. Eisner had 10 good years, but he didn't do it on his own.

It's a different company than it was during the Eisner years with the addition of former Fox Lucas businesses to the mix.

The stock price and resulting market capitalization is a reflection of not just the physical and intellectual assets of a company, its also how you can judge what if any good will exists, and I'll be specific in defining that term as used in business.

Goodwill refers to the value a company gets from its brand, customer base and reputation associated with its intellectual property. Goodwill is a long-term asset that generates value for a company over a number of years.

The Iger, Chapek, Iger sequence has not been positive on the market capitalization for the DIS company. Now it's heading to discussions on its potential book value.

 

[BrianLo]

I really think this is heading into a good buying territory. What's the worse case scenario here, really? The company being sold for parts?

The parts are currently worth a lot more than the whole market cap implies. Each park is worth like 5-10 billion for starters. Maybe more in the case of MK and Disneyland. The entire WDW complex alone could likely fetch 50.

Each Studio is worth at least 10+; Hulu is valued at 30; D+ has to be worth at least twice that with Netflix as a single entity being worth more than the entire Disney company.

Then we have major assets like EPSN, Fox studios, Consumer Products, a niche cruise line. Dying but still valuable Linear Networks.


Really the market is quite sour on the company as it currently stands, there is absolutely no premium for the underlying assets.

Could it go lower? Ya I certainly guess so, but there comes a point when it's on a fire sale and it feels like we are heading there or have arrived.

 

[Mmoore29]

Why are you trotting out your Eisner strawman on a donkey to this slaughter? Eisner and his posse at least revitalized the television and movie business and were successful until he lost Frank Wells who wasn't afraid to be blunt and tell him when the emperor had no clothes. That's when Roy Disney's revolt removed him as Chairman of the board and he stepped down as CEO. Eisner had 10 good years, but he didn't do it on his own.

It's a different company than it was during the Eisner years with the addition of former Fox Lucas businesses to the mix.

The stock price and resulting market capitalization is a reflection of not just the physical and intellectual assets of a company, its also how you can judge what if any good will exists, and I'll be specific in defining that term as used in business.

Goodwill refers to the value a company gets from its brand, customer base and reputation associated with its intellectual property. Goodwill is a long-term asset that generates value for a company over a number of years.

The Iger, Chapek, Iger sequence has not been positive on the market capitalization for the DIS company. Now it's heading to discussions on its potential book value.

Did I say Eisner did it on his own? No. But so many of you keep pining for Eisner and start saying "He was better than Iger ever was," and rewrite history to eliminate the real ways Iger also revitalized the business. You completely shift the context with which you talk about Eisner, and it shows you have no real sincere beliefs. You just move a piece across the board.

Disney's goodwill is strong, it continually has been since Iger jumpstarted the Revival, and it's always going to be so. It's nothing like what Eisner left behind, which was a threat of irrelevance and mediocrity. Disney is a colossus, and is 4.25 times more in worth than it was when Eisner left. (And stop using the adjusted for inflation part. That's another way to move the goalposts. There's a reason they call it "lies, damned lies and statistics.") The fact is that Iger has achieved so much more transformation than Eisner's first 10 years ever did. He did it before, he's gonna do it again, and in 2026, it's gonna be a $250 stock, with Disney+ generating strong profits. And he'll have a capable successor, possibly Staggs and/or Mayer.

The vultures in the press, the greedy short sellers and the trolls all have been rooting for Disney to fail, have been rooting for that ever since Eisner bought ABC, because they want to cut 'em down to size. The difference is that Eisner caved to that pressure and it brought out his worst instincts. Iger knows how to keep the ship on course.

And for the love of God, don't keep saying "there were alternatives besides Iger for the CEO job in 2005" if you're not gonna name them. Put up or shut up.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I really think this is heading into a good buying territory. What's the worse case scenario here, really? The company being sold for parts?

The parts are currently worth a lot more than the whole market cap implies. Each park is worth like 5-10 billion for starters. Maybe more in the case of MK and Disneyland. The entire WDW complex alone could likely fetch 50.

Each Studio is worth at least 10+; Hulu is valued at 30; D+ has to be worth at least twice that with Netflix as a single entity being worth more than the entire Disney company.

Then we have major assets like EPSN, Fox studios, Consumer Products, a niche cruise line. Dying but still valuable Linear Networks.


Really the market is quite sour on the company as it currently stands, there is absolutely no premium for the underlying assets.

Could it go lower? Ya I certainly guess so, but there comes a point when it's on a fire sale and it feels like we are heading there or have arrived.

I don’t disagree with you…

But it’s gonna go lower


None of the fundamentals of their business segments are “improving” with no relief in sight…not a one. Bad trends.

The overall economic outlook is not good…they keep diverting to individual components to create “new narratives”…but the reality is everyone is leveraged to the hilt and the debts can never be paid…from the world bank down to the CM living off 192 and working at MK stroller rental.

When “worry” is a daily discussion - and it is - it’s never been good for Disney and it’s businesses.

 

[networkpro]

Here's your historical share price of Disney, feel free to map the timeline of events, reigns of various potentates, and astrological forecasts. I wont stoop to finger puppets and/or interpretive dance to point out that Iger isnt a "magical creature", just a competent businessman. I wont bother with the alarming whipsaw of debt to equity during that time period.

The closest in price of what we have right now is 11/19/2014 when it was $82.68 a share 16 months prior to the announcement of Shanghai Disney Resort.

 

[networkpro]

I really think this is heading into a good buying territory. What's the worse case scenario here, really? The company being sold for parts?

The parts are currently worth a lot more than the whole market cap implies. Each park is worth like 5-10 billion for starters. Maybe more in the case of MK and Disneyland. The entire WDW complex alone could likely fetch 50.

Each Studio is worth at least 10+; Hulu is valued at 30; D+ has to be worth at least twice that with Netflix as a single entity being worth more than the entire Disney company.

Then we have major assets like EPSN, Fox studios, Consumer Products, a niche cruise line. Dying but still valuable Linear Networks.


Really the market is quite sour on the company as it currently stands, there is absolutely no premium for the underlying assets.

Could it go lower? Ya I certainly guess so, but there comes a point when it's on a fire sale and it feels like we are heading there or have arrived.

There we go, the first discussion of the book value for various parts of DIS if divestiture were considered and an honest evaluation of any attached goodwill.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Here's your historical share price of Disney, feel free to map the timeline of events, reigns of various potentates, and astrological forecasts. I wont stoop to finger puppets and/or interpretive dance to point out that Iger isnt a "magical creature", just a competent businessman. I wont bother with the alarming whipsaw of debt to equity during that time

Everyone has a shelf life. Guaranteed.

The closest in price of what we have right now is 11/19/2014 when it was $82.68 a share 16 months prior to the announcement of Shanghai Disney Resort.

That continues to be a “middle class dream for democracy and the free market”

 

[Mmoore29]

I really think this is heading into a good buying territory. What's the worse case scenario here, really? The company being sold for parts?

The parts are currently worth a lot more than the whole market cap implies. Each park is worth like 5-10 billion for starters. Maybe more in the case of MK and Disneyland. The entire WDW complex alone could likely fetch 50.

Each Studio is worth at least 10+; Hulu is valued at 30; D+ has to be worth at least twice that with Netflix as a single entity being worth more than the entire Disney company.

Then we have major assets like EPSN, Fox studios, Consumer Products, a niche cruise line. Dying but still valuable Linear Networks.


Really the market is quite sour on the company as it currently stands, there is absolutely no premium for the underlying assets.

Could it go lower? Ya I certainly guess so, but there comes a point when it's on a fire sale and it feels like we are heading there or have arrived.

Disney is not going to fully divest of ABC, Disney Channel, ESPN, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm or Fox, no matter how many times you keep talking about. That would be self-destructive and serve no purpose. Disney would not do well back to its 1995 size. It'll get trampled by the other studios, who won't slim down anytime soon. So why do a panic move like that? They're not going to. There's no hostile takeover, no acquisition by another company, no bankruptcy on the horizon. Disney is on a solid foundation. Deal with it.

 

[Mmoore29]

Here's your historical share price of Disney, feel free to map the timeline of events, reigns of various potentates, and astrological forecasts. I wont stoop to finger puppets and/or interpretive dance to point out that Iger isnt a "magical creature", just a competent businessman. I wont bother with the alarming whipsaw of debt to equity during that time period.
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The closest in price of what we have right now is 11/19/2014 when it was $82.68 a share 16 months prior to the announcement of Shanghai Disney Resort.

All you do is prove my point. Disney is not in the dire straits it was in when Eisner left. It's healthy, and only going to get better. The mid-'70s had far more debt compared to now, percentage wise. And Disney had FAR more debt than even that when Walt was alive, in between WWII and Disneyland.

Did I call Iger a "magical creature?" No, I didn't. But his record speaks for itself. He righted the ship. He's doing it again. Time proves all things, and by his leave in 2026, the proof will be obvious.

 

[networkpro]

All you do is prove my point. Disney is not in the dire straits it was in when Eisner left. It's healthy, and only going to get better. The mid-'70s had far more debt compared to now, percentage wise. And Disney had FAR more debt than even that when Walt was alive, in between WWII and Disneyland.

Did I call Iger a "magical creature?" No, I didn't. But his record speaks for itself. He righted the ship. He's doing it again. Time proves all things, and by his leave in 2026, the proof will be obvious.

Is there an ETF where I can short your opinion?

 

[Mmoore29]

Is there an ETF where I can short your opinion?

That's another thing. Shorts should not do so against a company at the very first sign of trouble. It's just nothing but sowing FUD. You don't have to make money off a company's misery to call attention to something being wrong. And people should not do shorts at times of economic downturn. That should've been re-outlawed after 2008.

The stock is really 115 right now, if you take the shorts out. Shorts don't "keep the market honest," they just keep the market as a casino. It always has been, but shorts just make it more blatant. Shorts artificially decrease the price and make companies undervalued, and lead them into self-fulfilling death spirals.

Well, Disney isn't going to fold, buster. All you can do is stew in your own bitterness and impotence in failing to drive the company into the ground.