You know, I'm going to be totally blunt and say that I fell hook, line, and sinker into the streaming stuff. I thought the masses would pay whatever they needed to access their content. But man, was I so wrong. I thought Disney+ and their streaming content could go the distance. I thought Disney+ would be an absolute leviathan. But it's becoming clear that I and many others succumbed to hype that was disguising something that increasingly looks untenable.
I'm dumbfounded that I miscalculated so badly. Streaming is beginning to look like the tech bubble of the 1990s. In the late 1990s, traditional media firms merged with new online companies. Most prominently, AOL and Time Warner united. There was intense pressure on Disney to find a match or make acquisitions. While Disney would make a foray into web services with go.com, it was relatively small. When the tech bubble burst, Disney came away with minor wounds. Other firms, like AOL-Time Warner, would destroy tens of billions in value. It was catastrophic.
Eisner, who by then was having issues with his leadership, knew one thing that saved Disney billions.
Disney is a storytelling company. It is not internet search engine company. It is not a movie theater owner. It is not a satellite dish company. One of the reasons Eisner would resist Comcast's acquisition of Disney, was his belief that Disney at its best creates "evergreen" products and services. In other words, whatever happens people will watch good films and tv shows. Eisner argued that these stories will retain value regardless of the medium of delivery. It doesn't matter if it's a Disney story in a cinema, in a broadway theater, on television, or whatever. There will always be distributers looking for Disney content as long as it's good.
And that worked wonders- until Disney+. Disney+ is ultimately a medium of delivery. It is a tech platform. It is not a storytelling medium. It has more in common with Comcast cable than it does filmmaking and other forms of storytelling. And now it is blowing up in their face.
Imagine an alternate reality where Iger had said "we're going to have a bidding war where the winner will be the exclusive home of all Disney streaming content for ten years." This would be similar to what the NFL does for its sports rights. Imagine if Disney had gotten Netflix, Comcast, Apple, and Amazon into a bidding war with each other. Being the home of Disney content would be the holy grail of streaming. They could have signed a ten year 50 billion dollar deal. In return, they would not need to run any of the logistical and technical backend. And they wouldn't need marketing expense either. It would be profitable from day one. Running the same strategy with ESPN and their other television content also could work. And as the streaming services consolidated and became profitable, Disney could increase their licensing fee similar to their successful but increasingly outmoded cable strategy.
In retrospect, it all is becoming clear that Disney+ and their other streaming efforts were a mistake. A mistake I cheered on. I made a terrible miscalculation on this. Lesson learned. I'll blame it on my youthful exuberance!