News Disney plans to accelerate Parks investment to $60 billion over 10 years

[No Name]

I keep reading on this forum about the 3 new lands, but 2 replaced existing attractions-Toy Story replace a Car stunt show, Pandora replaced Micky&Minnies Campground. Only Galaxy Edge saw the footprint of the Park expanded.

Pandora didn’t replace any attractions and did expand the footprint. They moved the meet and greets and the Festival of the Lion King show, which only took up maybe two acres anyway. The other 10 acres was a field of grass. If anything it indirectly replaced Primeval Whirl.

Galaxy’s Edge replaced backlot tour space and Lights Motors Action.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This, to me, is what concerns me the most.

Selfishly, I want the most money yo go to WDW.

I fear, the least money will go to WDW.

Absolutely. It's certainly a concern. But we probably have a good idea that it should be around $17B over the next decade given the previous statements from Disney. $1.7B a year on average would build a lot of stuff at WDW.

If historical trends hold and $60 billion is the real number, I would expect something like:

• $20 billion World
• $10 billion Land + "Other Domestic"
• $10 billion Cruise
• $20 billion International

But they would have to be super aggressive to get anywhere near that International number, so I would expect this to skew more towards World than the round numbers I chose here.

 

[doctornick]

Pandora didn’t replace any attractions and did expand the footprint. They moved the meet and greets and the Festival of the Lion King show, which only took up maybe two acres anyway. The other 10 acres was a field of grass. If anything it indirectly replaced Primeval Whirl.

Galaxy’s Edge replaced backlot tour space and Lights Motors Action.

Yes. Pandora and Ratatouille and Tron are really the only net additions to WDW in the last decade. Everything else has been replacing previous attractions. You could argue the Cars show at DHS but I basically consider that a replacement for the previous Premiere Theater on the Streets of America.

We've also lost SGE, the Little Mermaid show, and Primeval Whirl in the meantime without replacements.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Maybe a little less than you've seen built in the last decade.

What on Earth are people not understanding?

They are doubling what they spent in the last decade. Doubling. Yes, there's inflation. Inflation isn't double.

 

[flynnibus]

The one thing this doesn't do is estimate inflation for the next 10 years. I know when Len did it he came up with the number being around a 25% on the 10 year average here. Still a potentially very positive number for us parks fans.

Correct - but Disney's cited number wouldn't account for that either. It would project from today's absolute value perspective, not a relative one.

The 60 billion cited is not being set aside today in today's dollars.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Yes. Pandora and Ratatouille and Tron are really the only net additions to WDW in the last decade. Everything else has been replacing previous attractions. You could argue the Cars show at DHS but I basically consider that a replacement for the previous Premiere Theater on the Streets of America.

We've also lost SGE, the Little Mermaid show, and Primeval Whirl in the meantime without replacements.

Come on.

Galaxy's Edge takes up the same square footage as Backlot Tour but it's super disingenuous to call that a "replacement."

 

[MagicRat]

Hey everyone, I made a graph too. I can also do a bar chart or pie chart if requested.

 

[Disstevefan1]

If historical trends hold and $60 billion is the real number, I would expect something like:

• $20 billion World
• $10 billion Land + "Other Domestic"
• $10 billion Cruise
• $20 billion International

But they would have to be super aggressive to get anywhere near that International number, so I would expect this to skew more towards World than the round numbers I chose here.

20B for WDW would be great! Iger previously said I think 17B for WDW so 3B more is OK.

Lets see what he says next month.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

20B for WDW would be great! Iger previously said I think 17B for WDW so 3B more is OK.

Lets see what he says next month.

Rough math was 2/3 to Domestic including Cruise, so $40B to share between World, Land, and Cruise. $10B felt right for Cruise based on the roadmap, so then I split $30B between World and Land.

 

[doctornick]

Come on.

Galaxy's Edge takes up the same square footage as Backlot Tour but it's super disingenuous to call that a "replacement."

Oh, it's far better. But I guess I'm thinking more on the basis of capacity since we lost both the Backlot Tour and the stunt show. But got 4 attractions between SW:GE and TSL (plus a bunch of other "stuff" with shops and restaurants). but those lands were definitely not an "addition" to the park in terms of using previously unused expansion space and adding to what was there.

Then again, you can cut it both ways and point out that we lost multiple "things" in Innoventions west to get one attraction in JoW

 

[mysto]

All those numbers look the same to me, yet everyone seems to be arguing that they're all different?

 

[lentesta]

The one thing this doesn't do is estimate inflation for the next 10 years. I know when Len did it he came up with the number being around a 25% on the 10 year average here. Still a potentially very positive number for us parks fans.

Thanks! I assumed 4% inflation going forward for each of the next 10 years, for that 25% spend increase.

Even at 5% annual inflation, $60B would still represent a 20% increase in annual DPEP spend vs the 10 years before 2023.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Rough math was 2/3 to Domestic including Cruise, so $40B to share between World, Land, and Cruise. $10B felt right for Cruise based on the roadmap, so then I split $30B between World and Land.

I know you know this, back in April, Iger said that Disney is planning $17 billion worth of investments in Walt Disney World over the next 10 years, so this new announcement seems to just communicate they are going to invest in other than WDW.

 

[Moth]

Hope yall realize the Cruise group are gonna be fed the lion's share of this 60 billion. Hope yall love private islands and boats!

 

[lentesta]

What on Earth are people not understanding?

They are doubling what they spent in the last decade. Doubling. Yes, there's inflation. Inflation isn't double.

I'm agreeing with your overall assessment of this announcement: it's good news for the parks, even with inflation.

That said, $1 today is worth more than double the value of $1 in 20 years at 4% inflation (it'd be $0.46).

I had to do this in a spreadsheet because compounding values is really hard to wrap my head around.

 

[Dranth]

Hope yall realize the Cruise group are gonna be fed the lion's share of this 60 billion. Hope yall love private islands and boats!

And this is based off of what?

 

[doctornick]

Thanks! I assumed 4% inflation going forward for each of the next 10 years, for that 25% spend increase.

Even at 5% annual inflation, $60B would still represent a 20% increase in annual DPEP spend vs the 10 years before 2023.

Sure and 5% inflation every year seems probably pessimistic but it is fair to use. I would welcome a similar investment as the previous 10 years but 20% more.

I guess for the people who are down on this amount of money as "not being that much", do you not think the amount of investment in WDW in the past 10 years or so was adequate? I'm not talking about how they invested (because I agree it was too skewed to replacements instead of expansion) but more in terms of the total amount of investments/builds:

Pandora
Galaxy's Edge
Toy Story Land
Frozen Ever After
Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railroad
Ratatouille
Cosmic Rewind
Tron
Racing Academy
Journey of Water
Canada Far and Wide
Awesome Planet

Happily Ever After
Enchantment
Epcot Forever
Harmonious
Rivers of Light (RIP)

 

[lentesta]

Rough math was 2/3 to Domestic including Cruise, so $40B to share between World, Land, and Cruise. $10B felt right for Cruise based on the roadmap, so then I split $30B between World and Land.

I'm not that familiar with DCL spend. How much have they spent getting the Wish and Treasure out the door?

 

[UNCgolf]

Come on.

Galaxy's Edge takes up the same square footage as Backlot Tour but it's super disingenuous to call that a "replacement."

I'd agree since the Backlot Tour was already a shell; it was not remotely what it used to be.

If it was the Backlot Tour in its original incarnation, then it's a different discussion.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Hope yall realize the Cruise group are gonna be fed the lion's share of this 60 billion. Hope yall love private islands and boats!

Back in April, Iger said that Disney is planning $17 billion worth of investments in Walt Disney World over the next 10 years.

Was he lying, or has "plans" changed?