News Disney plans to accelerate Parks investment to $60 billion over 10 years

[monothingie]

This has come up a couple times. Why would they not want to invest in Florida if the return was guaranteed? What is going on in Florida that makes it signiciantly different from every other Disney property?

Shanghai and the Chinese market was/is seen by Bob Iger as the site with the greatest "opportunity". (For his Ego or for profit or for both) Even though Florida has been the neglected cash cow which prints money for the rest of the company. Florida under Iger has always been last in terms of new investments that are guest facing.

 

[monothingie]

You keep dropping words to make your statement true - but it's still disingenuous.

spending less BY PERCENTAGE OF REVENUE (if you follow Parentof4's math)

Not spending less.

Again, new G+ revenue did not make Rise of the Resistance any less of a major investment - but under the PERCENTAGE OF REVENUE metric - it is. That's why you don't use the wrong metrics in the wrong places.

Based on historical spending over the past 10 years, if you break it down evenly it translates into roughly $6B per resort per year, not including Shanghai. Couple in now Shanghai and the spending power lost through inflation and it is less.

 

[flynnibus]

Based on historical spending over the past 10 years, if you break it down evenly it translates into roughly $6B per resort per year, not including Shanghai. Couple in now Shanghai and the spending power lost through inflation and it is less.

No it's not.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Based on historical spending over the past 10 years, if you break it down evenly it translates into roughly $6B per resort per year, not including Shanghai. Couple in now Shanghai and the spending power lost through inflation and it is less.

6 x 4 = 24 < 60
6 x 5 = 30 < 60

 

[monothingie]

No it's not.

6 x 4 = 24 < 60
6 x 5 = 30 < 60

When was Shanghai finished? It certainly wasn't 2012.

 

[lazyboy97o]

When was Shanghai finished? It certainly wasn't 2012.

I did the math for your numbers with and without Shanghai. That still doesn’t get you close $60 billion.

 

[doctornick]

Let's focus on more recent history.

In the 10 years (2010-2019) before COVID resulted in unprecedented P&R revenue disruption, the average "Forward Capex vs. current revenue" number was 24.6%.

With the announced $60B investment over the next 10 years, that number stands at an estimated 21.3% in 2023.

Even compared to recent history, the $60B investment is just so so.

I appreciate your points, but I still am left to wonder: how does the $60B over 10 years compare to the amount in 2010-2019? Not in terms of percentage, but raw dollars (inflation adjusted).

It would be useful to get an idea how much "stuff" we might get at WDW in the next 10 years by comparing to how much "stuff" was done in the last decade.

Personally, if they build a similar amount of new things in the next ten years as they have done recently - but do more additions (like Beyond Thunder Mountain) as opposed to replacements (like Dinoland), then WDW would be in good shape. So I'm wondering about "how much" (which is the money aspect of things) and also where/what (which is the blue sky stuff which we really don't know yet).

 

[doctornick]

Here’s a better question. Was the last ten years of investment not an insane level of investment?

I wouldn't say it was "insane" at all. I view the last ten years as a return to the expected level of investment after the insanely minimal investment in the first decade of the 21st century.

It would be reasonable for Disney to invest in the parks in the next decade in a similar degree as they did in the 2010s. It seems to be that $60M over 10 years is in the same ballpark.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I appreciate your points, but I still am left to wonder: how does the $60B over 10 years compare to the amount in 2010-2019? Not in terms of percentage, but raw dollars (inflation adjusted).

It would be useful to get an idea how much "stuff" we might get at WDW in the next 10 years by comparing to how much "stuff" was done in the last decade.

Personally, if they build a similar amount of new things in the next ten years as they have done recently - but do more additions (like Beyond Thunder Mountain) as opposed to replacements (like Dinoland), then WDW would be in good shape. So I'm wondering about "how much" (which is the money aspect of things) and also where/what (which is the blue sky stuff which we really don't know yet).

This is reported for the entire company, not just parks and experiences, but it has averaged 940m/quarter or 3.76bn/year over past 10 years

Obviously have to factor in inflation, but $6bn/year average is an increase - but maybe not a doubling or tripling or anything

Commentary:

Walt Disney Co (DIS) Capital Expenditures (CapEx): $1.17 Billion for the quarter ended July 1st, 2023
Since the quarter ended December 27th, 2008, Walt Disney Co's capital expenditures (capex) has increased from $291 Million to $1.17 Billion as of the quarter ended July 1st, 2023.

From 2008 to 2023 Walt Disney Co's highest quarterly capital expenditures (capex) was $1.74 Billion
Walt Disney Co's lowest capital expenditures (capex) during that period was $291 Million
Walt Disney Co's average capital expenditures (capex) for each quarter from 2008 to 2023 Walt Disney Co's was $940 Million
Walt Disney Co's capital expenditures (capex) during the Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) period was $4.74 Billion

 

[MR.Dis]

I keep reading on this forum about the 3 new lands, but 2 replaced existing attractions-Toy Story replace a Car stunt show, Pandora replaced Micky&Minnies Campground. Only Galaxy Edge saw the footprint of the Park expanded. What bothers me as I keep saying is they cheaped out, all those new additions were cut back and as lazyboy points out the guest experience was not improved. All the complaints about using only Disney IP is only a legit complaint if what is built is not any good. So if a new Coco, Moana, Wakanda or whatever is built and done well with a sizeable number of new rides/attraction will anyone really care? The complaint about the $ spent on movies compared to parks, so I went back and reviewed Box Office Mojo-domestic and from 2019 to 2016 Disney had at least the top 2 grossing movies and in 2015 missed number 1 but had the 2,3,4 highest grossing movies. Maybe all that success caused a little hubris with some very not so impressive offerings post pandemic--get back to good story telling and the results will follow.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This is reported for the entire company, not just parks and experiences, but it has averaged 940m/quarter or 3.76bn/year over past 10 years

Obviously have to factor in inflation, but $6bn/year average is an increase - but maybe not a doubling or tripling or anything

You're contradicting yourself here.

Average was $3.8 billion BUT NOT JUST PARKS.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Parks has averaged $3.2 billion per year FY13 through FY22. That includes Shanghai plus the Dream, Fantasy, and Wish.

They're planning to 2x a base that includes Shanghai, the Dream, the Fantasy, and the Wish.

 

[flynnibus]

This is reported for the entire company, not just parks and experiences, but it has averaged 940m/quarter or 3.76bn/year over past 10 years

Obviously have to factor in inflation, but $6bn/year average is an increase - but maybe not a doubling or tripling or anything

Here's the number in the context of what everyone is talking about here. PER YEAR for the former DME division.. in both actual and Aug 2023 inflation adjusted numbers

I use DME and not just P&R because it goes in and out and they don't break out Consumer CapEx every year, so it's easier to keep them merged for consistency sake.

Even Aug 2023 inflation adjusted, the $6bil/yr number is impressive, and almost double most years.

 

[flynnibus]

Based on historical spending over the past 10 years, if you break it down evenly it translates into roughly $6B per resort per year, not including Shanghai. Couple in now Shanghai and the spending power lost through inflation and it is less.

Here is the actual capEx reported for P&R+consumer (DME) from 2011 through 2022... including adjusting the dollar amounts to Aug 2023 dollars. You can see no where does prior spend reach a $6billion investment for ALL of P&R+Consumer for the time period.

Now turn around.. and think, just as it applies to the existing theme parks vs the entire P&R+Consumer groups. The huge spike of 2015/2016 was as they were trying to open Shanghi, and 2019 spikes were from StarWars GE

 

[Dranth]

I keep reading on this forum about the 3 new lands, but 2 replaced existing attractions-Toy Story replace a Car stunt show, Pandora replaced Micky&Minnies Campground. Only Galaxy Edge saw the footprint of the Park expanded. What bothers me as I keep saying is they cheaped out, all those new additions were cut back and as lazyboy points out the guest experience was not improved. All the complaints about using only Disney IP is only a legit complaint if what is built is not any good. So if a new Coco, Moana, Wakanda or whatever is built and done well with a sizeable number of new rides/attraction will anyone really care? The complaint about the $ spent on movies compared to parks, so I went back and reviewed Box Office Mojo-domestic and from 2019 to 2016 Disney had at least the top 2 grossing movies and in 2015 missed number 1 but had the 2,3,4 highest grossing movies. Maybe all that success caused a little hubris with some very not so impressive offerings post pandemic--get back to good story telling and the results will follow.

If done well, that spend can cover bringing some existing rides up to date, redoing rides that are beyond hope, adding a few rides in existing areas that have the space as well as adding a new land or two. Hopefully that is what happens.

 

[doctornick]

View attachment 744029

Parks has averaged $3.2 billion per year FY13 through FY22. That includes Shanghai plus the Dream, Fantasy, and Wish.

They're planning to 2x a base that includes Shanghai, the Dream, the Fantasy, and the Wish.

Perfect, that's helpful IMHO. Obviously, there is inflation involved and we don't know the distribution between different parks (and cruise line) but the amount of money planned suggests we could at least get a similar amount of builds or more as we did in the last decade. Wouldn't all be in the parks even (some would go to the resorts and maybe transportation as well) but it at least puts it in some context.

As I have said, I'd be happy if they build the around the same amount of stuff at WDW in the next decade as they did in the last one - but particularly if it is new builds and not mostly replacements. Hopefully, we can get a new country in Epcot (with a ride) or rides added to existing pavilions, do beyond thunder mountain without losing any existing attractions, ideally add rides to lands at DAK or build a new land entirely on the northern unused plot, etc. DHS is a little trickier, though there is some unused expansion space, but if they made a new land between RNR and Animation courtyard that would be ideal (would involve demolition of the Animation building).

 

[doctornick]

Here's the number in the context of what everyone is talking about here. PER YEAR for the former DME division.. in both actual and Aug 2023 inflation adjusted numbers

I use DME and not just P&R because it goes in and out and they don't break out Consumer CapEx every year, so it's easier to keep them merged for consistency sake.

View attachment 744034

Even Aug 2023 inflation adjusted, the $6bil/yr number is impressive, and almost double most years.

Perfect, so it looks like that would be around 50% more on average per year than they did the last decade when considering inflation.

 

[Disstevefan1]

we don't know the distribution between different parks (and cruise line)

This, to me, is what concerns me the most.

Selfishly, I want the most money yo go to WDW.

I fear, the least money will go to WDW.

 

[doctornick]

This, to me, is what concerns me the most.

Selfishly, I want the most money yo go to WDW.

I fear, the least money will go to WDW.

Absolutely. It's certainly a concern. But we probably have a good idea that it should be around $17B over the next decade given the previous statements from Disney. $1.7B a year on average would build a lot of stuff at WDW.

 

[LSLS]

Here is the actual capEx reported for P&R+consumer (DME) from 2011 through 2022... including adjusting the dollar amounts to Aug 2023 dollars. You can see no where does prior spend reach a $6billion investment for ALL of P&R+Consumer for the time period.

View attachment 744035

Now turn around.. and think, just as it applies to the existing theme parks vs the entire P&R+Consumer groups. The huge spike of 2015/2016 was as they were trying to open Shanghi, and 2019 spikes were from StarWars GE

The one thing this doesn't do is estimate inflation for the next 10 years. I know when Len did it he came up with the number being around a 25% on the 10 year average here. Still a potentially very positive number for us parks fans.