Disney and Universal: Two very different paths

[Tom Morrow]

You mean because of recent construction that hasn't allowed the foliage to grow in? Remember when they redid the foliage blocking the backstage area of Everest and everyone pitched a fit? Yeah, that is completely blocked from view again. Know why? Because they weren't finished yet! Okay, I feel better now.

Actually, you can still see a lot of backstage around the first few sections of Everest, because they never did finish replanting apparently.

Also, the maintenance building was visible for months, maybe even close to a year.

 

[marni1971]

Speaking of the DAK bamboo hacking, that was done by park ops -unannounced- and was totally over the top much to the aghast of ride and show at both E:E and Kali. There was no construction reason and no plan B. The landscaping and the reasons for it were trashed literally overnight with no thought to the implications.

 

[EpcoTim]

How many of those 22 million potential customers would start looking at alternative content providers if the headline "Comcast drops Disney/ESPN/ABC" went across the newswire?
Every day content becomes more and more the driver. Right now, Disney Junior is the ONLY thing that keeps me with my cable provider (not Comcast by the way). If I could get Disney Junior easily (and I stress easily) in an alternative, say on Amazon Instant, or Netflix, I'd have my service cancelled in a millisecond.

Good question. How many viewers did TWC lose with the CBS deal? I'm sure Comcast would lose some viewers, but I dont think it would be the max-exodus many want you to believe. Many people are tied to Comcast in more ways than just cable.

The tricky part is with the NFL contract. If Disney drops Comcast, then that means a huge, the largest single carrier market in the industry now cannot view the national NFL games. Do you think the NFL would allow Disney to hold onto the national contract if they dumped a large percentage of viewers? Do you think Disney would be willing to dump one of their biggest revenue streams just to spite Comcast? Thats where the real games is here, not about losing a few customers of a Disney Jr, which I won't ask about, but I really hope you have kids.

Also, I don't like Comcast one bit and think their cable and internet is bull, but they do have an a la carte service up and running that may be the big industry game changer.

 

[sshindel]

Good question. How many viewers did TWC lose with the CBS deal? I'm sure Comcast would lose some viewers, but I dont think it would be the max-exodus many want you to believe. Many people are tied to Comcast in more ways than just cable.

306,000 customers and had to shell out $15 million in credits to unhappy customers for their 30 day outage:
http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...tomers-20131101,0,7921743.story#axzz2nIbnmlOU

The tricky part is with the NFL contract. If Disney drops Comcast, then that means a huge, the largest single carrier market in the industry now cannot view the national NFL games. Do you think the NFL would allow Disney to hold onto the national contract if they dumped a large percentage of viewers? Do you think Disney would be willing to dump one of their biggest revenue streams just to spite Comcast? Thats where the real games is here, not about losing a few customers of a Disney Jr, which I won't ask about, but I really hope you have kids.

Yup, young kids.

And with the NFL, it's an interesting wrinkle to say the least. Disney would have to ensure they had a proven model to reach those customers by the time contract negotiation was up for their new contract. As far as I'm aware (and I can't say I've followed the NFL contracting too closely), ESPN only has 1 game a week from the NFL, and with the proliferation of games on other networks, CBS, Fox, Comcast(NBC), and the NFL Networks, dish Sunday Ticket, and expanding to their streaming NFL.com presence, it might be a gamble that Disney would be willing to take to play chicken with a distribution channel like Comcast. You are likely right though, it's a big chip that Disney would stand to lose. I'm not sure if it's MORE than Comcast would have to lose of course, but it's a very valid point that I'm happy to concede I had not thought about.

 

[sshindel]

Sorry to back-to-back post, but I was re-reading that article and this quote from a media analyst stands out:

"Every cable operator now goes to the table knowing that CBS not only won the war but left Time Warner Cable badly damaged even for having fought the fight," Moffett said. "If you thought the scales were tipped in programmers' favor before, now you know that it is worse than you imagined."

 

[GoofGoof]

How many of those 22 million potential customers would start looking at alternative content providers if the headline "Comcast drops Disney/ESPN/ABC" went across the newswire?
Every day content becomes more and more the driver. Right now, Disney Junior is the ONLY thing that keeps me with my cable provider (not Comcast by the way). If I could get Disney Junior easily (and I stress easily) in an alternative, say on Amazon Instant, or Netflix, I'd have my service cancelled in a millisecond.

I know at least 1 who would. Especially ESPN. If they want to drop ABC family I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

 

[jdmdisney99]

I know at least 1 who would. Especially ESPN. If they want to drop ABC family I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

Yeah.

Comcast drops ABC - "Meh, don't watch it much."

Comcast drops Disney Channels (XD, Jr., etc.) - "Oh well, it always just played in the background when it was actually on."

Comcast drops ESPN - "Oh God, I can't miss all those games!" *Goes on computer and signs up for FiOS*

 

[SirOinksALot]

But that further's my point. Could Comcast even begin to compete with competitors without any of those products? Not close! People would jump ship to the nearest content provider that had those networks on them. A company like Comcast is already in a tenuous place right now, when content is available through SO many different distribution mediums, that a hit THAT large would have the potential to do serious damage to their subscribership. Not just with other cable providers, but with the million other alternative distribution methods that are coming online, Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, their own web presence, etc.

Most places only have one option for cable though.

Most cable company/channel arguments are grandstanding. The worst thing to happen to any of them isn't dropping or being dropped, but shaking up the status quo.

 

[ford91exploder]

It did the same thing for my wife. She was convinced that the subs really submerged and was very disappointed when she saw that it didn't. I like the old suspension of disbelief as much as anyone, but I don't think I ever thought that they actually went under water. How could you not know when you are standing there watching them go around the lagoon. Somethings defy understanding.

But that's the magic of the subs - suspension of belief is EASY.

 

[Goofyernmost]

But that's the magic of the subs - suspension of belief is EASY.

Absolutely agree when in the subs. But in spite of all the special effects, and they impressed me by the way, I still always knew we hadn't submerged, but, it never spoiled the ride for me. In fact it just made me more impressed how well they pulled that off.

 

[ford91exploder]

Same thinking as Worldcom...long distance phone service isn't going anywhere. How about Polaroid...people will always need film.

And amazingly enough there are 3 companies hard at work replicating Polaroid film because people do need and want it. Polaroid failed because a sociopathic crook took over the company and he and his cronies looted it.

https://www.the-impossible-project.com/film/

I use THIS stuff

http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/reinventing-instant-film-in-an-age-of-instant-imagery/

 

[sshindel]

Most places only have one option for cable though.

Most cable company/channel arguments are grandstanding. The worst thing to happen to any of them isn't dropping or being dropped, but shaking up the status quo.

I agree that most of these discussions are just trying to get a better deal, and a lot of fluff. I do think though that we're getting closer to the point when there are enough viable options out there, with internet based streaming video starting to get more and more content, and more and more accessible, when the power of the distributor is going to shift a bit. Now, unless content providers start to be able to really spin up their own distribution method, which is probably not going to happen, it's likely going to just shift to different players in the game, but still, the power of a company like Comcast is going to be lessened greatly when people have more easy options to get exactly what content they want, when and where they want it. I already watch more streaming video than I do on my cable company. I'm about a Disney Junior away from dropping cable and going to a HD Broadcast (for sports) / Amazon-Netflix-Hulu via Roku solution in my own household...

 

[MickeyPeace]

Speaking of the DAK bamboo hacking, that was done by park ops -unannounced- and was totally over the top much to the aghast of ride and show at both E:E and Kali. There was no construction reason and no plan B. The landscaping and the reasons for it were trashed literally overnight with no thought to the implications.

Interesting. I never heard that.

When I was in WDW first week of Oct, the bamboo on the lift of Kali was completely butchered. It was completely cleared. Wide open space. Of course the fog wasn't working. Or the geyser at the top. Or the fire effect. Or the spinning wheels on the truck. Or the squirting fountains after the drop. Or the spitting elephants.

It was in the saddest state ever.

Time for Kali watch thread?

 

[Bairstow]

Interesting. I never heard that.

When I was in WDW first week of Oct, the bamboo on the lift of Kali was completely butchered. It was completely cleared. Wide open space. Of course the fog wasn't working. Or the geyser at the top. Or the fire effect. Or the spinning wheels on the truck. Or the squirting fountains after the drop. Or the spitting elephants.

It was in the saddest state ever.

Time for Kali watch thread?

Eh.
No one's ever really cared about Kali.

 

[ford91exploder]

Good question. How many viewers did TWC lose with the CBS deal? I'm sure Comcast would lose some viewers, but I dont think it would be the max-exodus many want you to believe. Many people are tied to Comcast in more ways than just cable.

The tricky part is with the NFL contract. If Disney drops Comcast, then that means a huge, the largest single carrier market in the industry now cannot view the national NFL games. Do you think the NFL would allow Disney to hold onto the national contract if they dumped a large percentage of viewers? Do you think Disney would be willing to dump one of their biggest revenue streams just to spite Comcast? Thats where the real games is here, not about losing a few customers of a Disney Jr, which I won't ask about, but I really hope you have kids.

Also, I don't like Comcast one bit and think their cable and internet is bull, but they do have an a la carte service up and running that may be the big industry game changer.

As long as the NFL gets the asking price for the rights they don't care whether ANYONE sees the games, In fact they would rather the games NOT be on TV as that drives ticket sales.

 

[TubaGeek]

The more y'all talk about cable packages, the more validated you make Mr. Thick feel.
Just sayin'.

 

[Mckicp1]

^ I remember reading here or some other site that the bamboo was eradicated because of a fungus or disease outbreak in the bamboo, and the cutting was a measure to stop it from spreading. Does that sound familiar to anyone?

 

[ford91exploder]

I'm pretty sure Disney is more afraid of Comcast dropping them than Comcast is of Disney pulling out. ESPN is Disney's cash cow and the thought of it being dropped from over a third of the country's TVs would knee cap TWDC. Comcast has them by the short hairs while kicking The P&R division up side the head.

Comcast does not NEED Disney as they have Universal AND NBC to create content as well as owning the digital pipeline into the majority of cable households. They are almost 1/3 larger than TWDC in Market Cap.

If Comcast dropped DIsney ESPN would be worthless almost overnight along with the insipid 'Disney $SOMETHING' channels. Disney has no independent content distribution arm as does Comcast.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Comcast does not NEED Disney as they have Universal AND NBC to create content as well as owning the digital pipeline into the majority of cable households. They are almost 1/3 larger than TWDC in Market Cap.

If Comcast dropped DIsney ESPN would be worthless almost overnight along with the insipid 'Disney $SOMETHING' channels. Disney has no independent content distribution arm as does Comcast.

What? Universal and NBC create content? Not to mention Comcast is in bed with Warner Bros., Dreamworks Animation, and Fox.
And Comcast has 52 million cable subscribers, not 22+million as cited earlier in this thread.
I should add that Comcast has seen 8 straight quarters of cable subs decline. But they have 22 straight quarters of Internet Provider increases. They see the writing on the wall and that's why they are fostering their Parks division. While they love kicking the mouse upside the head, their real business goal diversification.

 

[GoofGoof]

What? Universal and NBC create content? Not to mention Comcast is in bed with Warner Bros., Dreamworks Animation, and Fox.
And Comcast has 52 million cable subscribers, not 22+million as cited earlier in this thread.
I should add that Comcast has seen 8 straight quarters of cable subs decline. But they have 22 straight quarters of Internet Provider increases. They see the writing on the wall and that's why they are fostering their Parks division. While they love kicking the mouse upside the head, their real business goal diversification.

I agree with almost all of this. Somewhere lost in the back and forth I did say somewhere that I felt Comcast's management was highly competent and smart enough to attempt to diversify their business. They definitely don't have their heads buried in the sand.

As far as the parks division goes, it's still more of a novelty to Comcast. They are investing heavily in it, but it's still not part of the "core" business yet. At least not like Disney where it is a much more material driver of results. I don't know if that is good or bad. It can definitely work in your favor when you are a business line with growth potential which is not relied on to drive company results. You get a little more time to grow and you don't need to be focused solely on the bottom line. On the other hand if you aren't a part of the "core" business it makes it a lot easier to either cut back on future investment or sell off the business.