Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

DKampy

Well-Known Member
We got nothing else to talk about right now, why not this? And its still technically relevant (even if in an only tangential way) to the box office of Mufasa.
Give TP time…. I am sure he will update us on how much money Snow White is losing…😉

I will say I know someone who grew up in the foster system…. And has several brothers and sisters through that…. The way she talks about them… it is as if they are blood related…. In fact I thought they were at first…. It took me a bit to realize they were foster brothers and Sisters…. It’s not hard to imagine adopted brothers would grow up as though they are closely related

Anyway such issues don’t bother me…as I take each individual movie on it’s own terms
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Then for the love of God please stop
Why? If you don't want to partake in the conversation just don't pay attention to it. The whole point of this forum is to discuss ALL things Disney. These movie threads would die awfully fast if we didn't talk about all these things. I say bring it all on. And if I don't care for a topic, I check back until there's something I want to engage with. That seems pretty reasonable in my eyes.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
During any discussions very few opinions actually change. So I'm not sure what the expectation here is other than to just accept that posters are going to stick to their opinions.

Also all discussion on this site is inconsequential discussion not just this latest exchange.
True but I think there is a lot of good in hearing other viewpoints even if opinions don’t ultimately change, I’m as stubborn and unlikely to change my mind as anyone but I’ve learned a lot over the years from talking with those I disagree with, I wish more people did it, maybe we’d (people in general) be less divided if we understood each others views better.
 

Agent H

Well-Known Member
Why? If you don't want to partake in the conversation just don't pay attention to it. The whole point of this forum is to discuss ALL things Disney. These movie threads would die awfully fast if we didn't talk about all these things. I say bring it all on. And if I don't care for a topic, I check back until there's something I want to engage with. That seems pretty reasonable in my eyes.
Yeah. When people wanna talk about the Oscars non stop that’s when I see my cue to leave.
 

Chi84

Premium Member
True but I think there is a lot of good in hearing other viewpoints even if opinions don’t ultimately change, I’m as stubborn and unlikely to change my mind as anyone but I’ve learned a lot over the years from talking with those I disagree with, I wish more people did it, maybe we’d (people in general) be less divided if we understood each others views better.
We’re talking about whether two Disney animated lions are actually related by blood.

I don’t think any greater world understanding is going to be achieved, but others are right. I don’t really care so I won’t participate.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Give TP time…. I am sure he will update us on how much money Snow White is losing…😉

I will say I know someone who grew up in the foster system…. And has several brothers and sisters through that…. The way she talks about them… it is as if they are blood related…. In fact I thought they were at first…. It took me a bit to realize they were foster brothers and Sisters…. It’s not hard to imagine adopted brothers would grow up as though they are closely related

Anyway such issues don’t bother me…as I take each individual movie on it’s own terms
Because I do not want to be misunderstood as implying that adoptive or foster sibling relationships are somehow less valid than biological ones, let me state for the very last time that whether Scar and Mufasa are related by blood had nothing to do with the second point I was making. I offered about three clarifications to this effect, yet somehow people are still implying that I was saying something I wasn't.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Why? If you don't want to partake in the conversation just don't pay attention to it. The whole point of this forum is to discuss ALL things Disney. These movie threads would die awfully fast if we didn't talk about all these things. I say bring it all on. And if I don't care for a topic, I check back until there's something I want to engage with. That seems pretty reasonable in my eyes.
I agree it's off-topic, but all of us who contribute to this thread are guilty of straying into tangents from time to time. Some of those tangents are more interesting me than others; those I find boring I just skip, as you advise.
 

Agent H

Well-Known Member
That would be the proper thing to do. Not get bent out of shape because people aren't talking about what you want. I'm out when the art house films are talked about.
Honestly same. I don’t watch art house movies. Only difference is convos about art house films don’t last for pages and pages.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Because I do not want to be misunderstood as implying that adoptive or foster sibling relationships are somehow less valid than biological ones, let me state for the very last time that whether Scar and Mufasa are related by blood had nothing to do with the second point I was making. I offered about three clarifications to this effect, yet somehow people are still implying that I was saying something I wasn't.
Not implying anything…. Just giving my own thoughts..and why it does not bother me in the least…. It is why I did not quote you
 

WoundedDreamer

Well-Known Member
BTW, I don't know why this wasn't bigger news and discussed more. People complain about sequels, reboots, prequels, and all the rest but then don't show up when originals actually come out.

The explanation that jumps out at me is that audiences might have adapted to the drought of original content. Instead of waiting for innovative movies to arrive, audiences found a new source. We now have tons of original content arriving on streaming services to satisfy our needs. Apple, Netflix, Disney/Hulu, Amazon, Peacock, and Paramount have made big bets on streaming content that rivals the quality of cinema. There's ample evidence that their investment has paid off.

The only thing that will pry audiences off of Netflix and into theaters are legitimate cultural events. That's not because audiences lack sophistication or they have short attention spans. Young people will binge watch entire seasons of complex and interconnected television. Instead, the explanation might be as simple as evolving tastes and expectations.

It's a challenging box office environment. More IP does seem to be the answer to fill up theaters. Marvel needs its first big none Deadpool win since GotG 3. The Fantastic Four seems like the film to restart the engine. It's got a cool aesthetic and an interesting retro setting. If not that film, then they have the trump card with Doomsday. That will be drawing from both a well of RDJ nostalgia and a well of X Men nostalgia. There's almost no way that it doesn't gross Deadpool 3 numbers at least. They are going to have to do what they didn't do in Endgame—provide closure while tantalizing people for what comes next. Star Wars also has an opportunity with the Mando film, but it does feel like that franchise lacks a clear strategy. Hopefully its future will come into focus.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
I saw Sinners last night and thought it was great! No idea how it will perform at the box office. First half of it is more of a slow-burn, character centric period piece and then it gradually transforms into a supernatural horror film. I personally dug it (and the audience I saw it with was very enthusiastic about it), but we shall see how much mainstream appeal it has in the coming weeks.
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
This is a bit of an annoying read because of the poor way in which it is written, but it stemmed from a random (or is my iPhone reading my posts here now?) Facebook post telling me about Disney movies that never got finished, such as Snow White 2, which was meant to be a straight to DVD release.

Apparently there were 2 previous versions of The Lion King, both written in 1990. There are entire screenplays. Side note: in neither of them were Scar and Mufasa related - but they are far different from the final version in many more ways than that.

 
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Phroobar

Well-Known Member
This is a bit of an annoying read because of the poor way in which it is written, but it was a random (or is my iPhone reading my posts here now?) Facebook post telling me about Disney movies that never got finished, such as Snow White 2, which was meant to be a straight to DVD release.

Apparently there were 2 previous versions of The Lion King, both written in 1990. There are entire screenplays. Side note: in neither of them were Scar and Mufasa related - but they are far different from the final version in many more ways than that.

Those versions sound interesting. Too bad Disney doesn't have the guts to do either version.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
What I do know is TP under-calls everything consistently by 50M+ because he uses a 3X multiplier without realizing it. So at least if he calls something profitable, it’s definitely profitable. Even 2.5X generally is a cautious under-call.

I just take 60% of the domestic box office and 40% of the foreign box office and apply that to the widely reported production budget, with a standard marketing/distribution budget of half the production. With the exception of when Disney itself brags about spending more on marketing, like when they went on record saying they spent $140 Million to market The Little Mermaid a couple years ago.

That's based on an 8 second Google search that says that 60/40 split from theaters is fairly standard in the industry.

Using a blanket 2.5X over calls if you are assuming that every movie has an equitable overseas box office to its domestic box office. But that's often not the case. Like with Mufasa, which did almost double its domestic box office in overseas markets.

Give TP time…. I am sure he will update us on how much money Snow White is losing…😉

Can you wait until Monday or Tuesday? I've been busy this week; I put the top down and blasted across the desert to get to San Diego yesterday (threading the needle on Coachella traffic). I've got family to pick up at Lindbergh Field in a couple hours, and then we're going to have a busy Easter weekend.

In the meantime gang, I hope everyone has a very happy Easter and/or a fabulous Passover! May all your eggs be full of your favorite candy! 🐰 And catch a healthy case of Spring Fever and get out there and have some fun this weekend! (I'm going to be blasting this song with the top down in front of baggage claim, just to annoy my sister... :cool:)

 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I just take 60% of the domestic box office and 40% of the foreign box office and apply that to the widely reported production budget, with a standard marketing/distribution budget of half the production. With the exception of when Disney itself brags about spending more on marketing, like when they went on record saying they spent $140 Million to market The Little Mermaid a couple years ago.

That's based on an 8 second Google search that says that 60/40 split from theaters is fairly standard in the industry.

Using a blanket 2.5X over calls if you are assuming that every movie has an equitable overseas box office to its domestic box office. But that's often not the case. Like with Mufasa, which did almost double its domestic box office in overseas markets.
Except as been told to you before your assuming that its a uniform 60/40 split across the board for all studios on all movies on all theaters (and specifically in all countries internationally) for its entire run, and that is not the case. For example, again something you've been told, Disney famously had a more generous 65/45 splits in years prior for the first week or two of release. Who knows what it is now, that is not something publicized. And that percentage drops off the longer a movie is in theaters. So even assuming its 60/40, its not 60/40 for the movies entire run.

@BrianLo did the work to back check and actually match up the calculations to the actual yearly Deadline breakdown on the movies and Disney financials. And if he is saying you are under reporting it for the most part, I would believe him.

This is why using 2.5x is just easier for our purposes, no need to quibble over falling percentages and such.
 

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