Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Mr. Sullivan

Well-Known Member
Massive Christmas day rebound for Mufasa. 100% increase over yesterday which is good news following an insanely good hold yesterday.

Now that Sonic’s core audience has seen it, the gap between the two movies has been closing daily. Now Mufasa’s posting a $15+ million Christmas Day domestic, potentially looking to have an above $30 million domestic second weekend. With international doing well, I think this thing is very safely gonna go $600+ million worldwide.

Everyone counted this thing dead last weekend but it is absolutely back on track to turn profitable when just a few days ago it didn’t look like it would. Christmas box office is always so fun to watch. Things can change dramatically in the span of a few days. Mufasa’s gone from looking dead on arrival to the box office trackers completely changing their tune.

It’s not gonna hit a billion, but it’s going to do significantly better than most (myself included) thought based on opening.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Definitely turning into a *small* interesting comeback story. We always have one every Christmas. Apparently the soundtrack is hitting very well - which was the missing LMM from Moana 2 secret sauce.

We've left the Alice through the looking Glass and The Marvels comps behind.
 

CinematicFusion

Well-Known Member
Well since the thread is still locked…



This is the first preview to really make me excited for the film. She sounds incredible.

It will be interesting to see how that movie does at the box office. Should be a slam dunk and Disney pushed it back for over a year… but did Rachel Zegler hurt the film?

Time will tell…
This movie should be an easy 1 billion dollar film.
Should be a layup… it’s Snow White.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Yes, that's the reason why...

"Tony Vinciquerra, the Sony Pictures CEO, acknowledged that Madame Web underperformed at the box office and shared why he thinks it didn’t do well.

In a new interview, Vinciquerra touched on Madame Web‘s dismal results in theaters despite being part of the Spider-Man universe.

“Madame Web underperformed in the theaters because the press just crucified it. It was not a bad film, and it did great on Netflix,” Vinciquerra told the Los Angeles Times.

Vinciquerra also acknowledged that Kraven the Hunter underperformed like Madame Web and suggested, “for some reason, the press decided that they didn’t want us making these films … and the critics just destroyed them.”
 

Mr. Sullivan

Well-Known Member
It will be interesting to see how that movie does at the box office. Should be a slam dunk and Disney pushed it back for over a year… but did Rachel Zegler hurt the film?

Time will tell…
This movie should be an easy 1 billion dollar film.
Should be a layup… it’s Snow White.
There was no universe where this was gonna make a billion. Snow White is not that popular and the film has been met with nothing but negative reactions from day one. No, Zegler didn’t hurt the film (though she will be blamed for it anyway), it’s just that very few people wanted this to begin with. It’s gonna bomb, but it was always gonna bomb. Even without all the controversy, it was never gonna be a billion dollar film.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
There was no universe where this was gonna make a billion. Snow White is not that popular and the film has been met with nothing but negative reactions from day one. No, Zegler didn’t hurt the film (though she will be blamed for it anyway), it’s just that very few people wanted this to begin with. It’s gonna bomb, but it was always gonna bomb. Even without all the controversy, it was never gonna be a billion dollar film.
I agree it wasn’t a billion dollar movie but disagree about Zegler, I think she’s probably driven away half it’s potential audience.

When it was announced I’d have guessed it would pull similar numbers to Cinderella, somewhere in the $600-700 million range (inflation adjusted), with all the animosity around the star my guess is it’ll be half that now.

If it hits $600 million I’ll happily admit I was wrong though, and that the controversy was overblown. I thought the Little Mermaid would do far worse as a result of controversy also and it did far better than I expected with all the noise surrounding it.
 
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Chi84

Premium Member
I agree it wasn’t a billion dollar movie but disagree about Zegler, I think she’s probably driven away half it’s potential audience.

When it was announced I’d have guessed it would pull similar numbers to Cinderella, somewhere in the $600-700 million range (inflation adjusted), with all the animosity around the star my guess is it’ll be half that now.

If it hits $600 million I’ll happily admit I was wrong though, and that the controversy was overblown. I thought the Little Mermaid would do far worse as a result of controversy also and it did far better than I expected with all the noise surrounding it.
The manufactured controversy surrounding both of those movies was very strong.
 

CinematicFusion

Well-Known Member
There was no universe where this was gonna make a billion. Snow White is not that popular and the film has been met with nothing but negative reactions from day one. No, Zegler didn’t hurt the film (though she will be blamed for it anyway), it’s just that very few people wanted this to begin with. It’s gonna bomb, but it was always gonna bomb. Even without all the controversy, it was never gonna be a billion dollar film.
If Disney’s live-action Snow White makes $569,626,289 worldwide (little mermaid numbers), it’s still gonna fall short of breaking even. With a production budget of about $269.4M and marketing costs between $100M-$200M, the total spend is close to $470M. Movies usually need to make about 2.5x their production costs because of theater splits. So, they’d need around $670M+ to break even. If it stops at $569M, they’re looking at a loss of $100M or more. Not a complete disaster, but definitely not the big win they’d be hoping for.

So.. 670 million just to break even and won’t make 1 billion. Small window for success.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I agree it wasn’t a billion dollar movie but disagree about Zegler, I think she’s probably driven away half it’s potential audience.

In order to drive away half the audience, the majority of the audience would need to be aware of what she’s said. I think you are are way overestimating that awareness. It’s a very small fraction.

There was a lot of bad press around Cynthia Erivo immediately prior to Wicked that got no play here. I’d be surprised if even half the people that watched Wicked know her name (admittedly, I just had to look it up).

I think Snow White fails on its own merit, namely the appetite for these remakes is rapidly diminishing. Plus Dopey is nightmare fuel.
 

Farerb

Well-Known Member
In order to drive away half the audience, the majority of the audience would need to be aware of what she’s said. I think you are are way overestimating that awareness. It’s a very small fraction.

There was a lot of bad press around Cynthia Erivo immediately prior to Wicked that got no play here. I’d be surprised if even half the people that watched Wicked know her name (admittedly, I just had to look it up).

I think Snow White fails on its own merit, namely the appetite for these remakes is rapidly diminishing.
The controversy surrounding Erivo was mild and mostly just cringeworthy. With Rachel it was just controversy after controversy after controversy, and I think most people are aware even if they don't know every minutiae. All it takes is for someone to tell them "hey did you hear what the actress from Disney's upcoming Snow White remake said?" to make them decide "well then not going to watch the movie now".
 

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