Probably ~400. What it will lose, though, is quite a few screenings. Probably on the order of 50%, give or take. That'll be easier to see tomorrow night when the big chains set their schedules for the upcoming weekend.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
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Probably ~400. What it will lose, though, is quite a few screenings. Probably on the order of 50%, give or take. That'll be easier to see tomorrow night when the big chains set their schedules for the upcoming weekend.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
After the rebound year that Disney has had I don't think they much care if Mufasa does better than break-even or not. And at this point I'm not even sure they care all that much if it even breaks even.Really? That's it for Mufasa? Oof!
Assuming that Burbank was able to slash the budget for Mufasa down to only $200 Million, that's gonna be a tough hill to climb to break even if it only opens to $50 Million the weekend before Christmas.
The previous live action Lion King in 2019 had a production budget of $260 Million. Adjusted for the rampant and still-rising inflation of the past few years, that would be a production budget of $320 Million today.
Were they able to slash over a third from the budget for Mufasa? Let's hope so. Regardless, it's going to be fun to have two whole Disney movies to track in the box office again this Christmas vacation! It's just like the old days!
I agree… Disney is the top studio this year…almost every movie they released was profitable…. It’s very rare for a studio to have all winners in a given year…That being said… it will be interesting to see what the reviews are tomorrow…. I could see a world of it’s good… The Lion King is a word of mouth hit…. This is the leggiest season of the year…. The first Aquaman opened to just over 60 million and it became a Billon dollar movie… and personally I did not care for that film
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
If Mufassa is a good movie, I want it to do well. If it's bad, I want it to flop. The 2019 Lion King was abysmal and one of the worst moviegoing experiences of my life. I've been skeptical about Mufassa since it was announced, but the talents of Barry Jenkins and Lin Manuel Miranda haven recently given me some slight hope that it might actually turn out to be a good movie. I've already listened to the Mufassa soundtrack a few times and have grown to like a lot of the songs. I could not say the same for Moana 2!
We should have some idea tomorrow when the review embargo lifts.
Farerb
Well-Known Member
They should! Snow White is just around the corner.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Different year, so why would they care about that right now if it doesn't count toward any totals for this year. Plus that may not end up doing as bad as some think it will. If it ends up being a fairly faithful rendition it may end up doing ok.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Yeah, I wouldn’t be so sure about Snow White being faithful to the original.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
TLK opened to $191M in 2019, so it roared out of the gate. If I was to predict for Mufasa, I'd say it opens low and becomes a slow burn if the reviews are good.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I said fairly faithful, I didn't say a direct retelling.
They obviously have to expand the story in order to make it a 2hr+ movie, as the original is only 83 minutes long, plus some slight changes to modernize it. But lets not clog up this thread with Snow White talk and get it shutdown like the other thread. We can talk more about that movie when it comes out in March.
That's an interesting thing this year - films like that, Dune Part Two, and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (which like Wicked didn't rustle up much international business) seem to have been more memorable for audiences than the billion-dollar club of Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and (probably!) Moana 2. It's good going for Disney financially but I don't think they've had a movie that really "stuck" with people since Encanto.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
It's already the fourth highest WDAS film ever. We already know it's pretty much domestically going to be number 1 or 2. A very financially smart move and at least it was reasonably watched to launch their third movie off of.
(2nd place Frozen is 400)
How far she goes is pretty much Internationally driven now and they are more clearly starting to diverge in terms of International legging further.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Well, they did slash some money from the budget of 2019’s Lion King, but Mufasa: The Lion King cost $250M, $10M less than 2019 Lion King, according to Vulture.Really? That's it for Mufasa? Oof!
Assuming that Burbank was able to slash the budget for Mufasa down to only $200 Million, that's gonna be a tough hill to climb to break even if it only opens to $50 Million the weekend before Christmas.
The previous live action Lion King in 2019 had a production budget of $260 Million. Adjusted for the rampant and still-rising inflation of the past few years, that would be a production budget of $320 Million today.
Were they able to slash over a third from the budget for Mufasa? Let's hope so. Regardless, it's going to be fun to have two whole Disney movies to track in the box office again this Christmas vacation! It's just like the old days!
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Not sure what Vulture article you're looking at, but the one where they interview Jenkins back on Dec 5th doesn't have a budget figure for Mufasa. They talk about his next film and how it won't be a $250M movie, that is not confirmation that is the actual budget for Mufasa. So I wouldn't use that as the actual budget until its confirmed by Disney or one of the trades.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
It’s already the fourth highest-grossing film of 2024 in the UK and Ireland (the two countries’ box-office numbers are shared), having made over $20,000,000 more than Moana 2. I’m not sure why you’re characterising that as modest.
Oh, and remember Germany, where you claimed Wicked had flopped despite the fact it hadn’t even opened there yet? Well, it debuted this weekend to strong numbers.
It’s also doing really well in Australia.
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
It's modest compared to Moana 2 and other recent tentpole movies from Disney or big Hollywood studios.
The overseas box office for Wicked is crummy, at best. Most movies are able to at least pull in the same total as America from all its overseas markets combined. Some big blockbuster movies get up to double the American box office from their overseas runs. Wicked is the opposite of that, getting less than half its American box office from overseas markets.
Here's a statistical example of that, using recent women-focused tentpole movies as a comparison. Notice how Wicked can't even get half the American box office from overseas? That's crummy. And since a third of that box office comes from just the UK, compared to what those other movies did in the UK, the box office for Wicked in the UK is modest.
Even a huge bomb like The Marvels was able to pull in more box office from overseas than its miserable American box office last year. You wouldn't wish Wicked's weak overseas box office on a dog, which was my point.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Oh, geez. If they really did spend $250 Million on Mufasa, before marketing, that's going to be scary to watch that box office dribble in if it's only expecting $50 Million from its debut weekend.
At that rate domestically and barring some massive overseas demand for it, Mufasa will lose at least $400 Million for Burbank. Perhaps more.
Surely they didn't spend $250 Million on production for Mufasa. It seems to be going nowhere, and my recent Target run set off my Popdar alarms that it was not only going nowhere, but going nowhere fast. They can't repeat the disasters of 2022 and 2023 already, they just can't.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
This makes no sense. As I pointed out, Wicked is doing significantly better in the UK (and Ireland) than Moana 2.
You’re conflating two different things: Wicked’s international performance writ large, which is indeed modest, and its performance in the UK (and Ireland), which is really very strong and much more in keeping with the US box office.
I missed the stats for the UK…. Which is what you and @LittleBuford were debatingIt's modest compared to Moana 2 and other recent tentpole movies from Disney or big Hollywood studios.
The overseas box office for Wicked is crummy, at best. Most movies are able to at least pull in the same total as America from all its overseas markets combined. Some big blockbuster movies get up to double the American box office from their overseas runs. Wicked is the opposite of that, getting less than half its American box office from overseas markets.
Here's a statistical example of that, using recent women-focused tentpole movies as a comparison. Notice how Wicked can't even get half the American box office from overseas? That's crummy. And since a third of that box office comes from just the UK, compared to what those other movies did in the UK, the box office for Wicked in the UK is modest.
Even a huge bomb like The Marvels was able to pull in more box office from overseas than its miserable American box office last year. You wouldn't wish Wicked's weak overseas box office on a dog, which was my point.
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DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Ah sh-t.
It seems critics feel #MufasaTheLionKing is just as mediocre as 2019’s Lion King.
Unfortunate, as I felt this was way better than the 2019 remake, but at least this can benefit #Moana2 during the holiday season now that audiences know they don’t have to see this film.
It seems critics feel #MufasaTheLionKing is just as mediocre as 2019’s Lion King.
Unfortunate, as I felt this was way better than the 2019 remake, but at least this can benefit #Moana2 during the holiday season now that audiences know they don’t have to see this film.
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Disney Irish
Premium Member
In other news, Mufasa only has to make $356M WW in order for TLK franchise to cross the $3B mark. Something that very few franchises actually do, and something that even fewer do in 3 or less movies unless your name is Avatar.