Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Yeah, I wouldn’t be so sure about Snow White being faithful to the original.

I said fairly faithful, I didn't say a direct retelling.

They obviously have to expand the story in order to make it a 2hr+ movie, as the original is only 83 minutes long, plus some slight changes to modernize it. But lets not clog up this thread with Snow White talk and get it shutdown like the other thread. We can talk more about that movie when it comes out in March.

 

[Miss Rori]

It has thus far earned more worldwide than Wicked, a movie that feels much more like a cultural event than Moana 2.

That's an interesting thing this year - films like that, Dune Part Two, and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (which like Wicked didn't rustle up much international business) seem to have been more memorable for audiences than the billion-dollar club of Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and (probably!) Moana 2. It's good going for Disney financially but I don't think they've had a movie that really "stuck" with people since Encanto.

 

[BrianLo]

It's weird that there would be any concern over Moana 2's performance.

It has out grossed the original despite being a retooled streaming show. It feels like free money for Disney.

It has thus far earned more worldwide than Wicked, a movie that feels much more like a cultural event than Moana 2.

It's already the fourth highest WDAS film ever. We already know it's pretty much domestically going to be number 1 or 2. A very financially smart move and at least it was reasonably watched to launch their third movie off of.

(2nd place Frozen is 400)

How far she goes is pretty much Internationally driven now and they are more clearly starting to diverge in terms of International legging further.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Really? That's it for Mufasa? Oof!

Assuming that Burbank was able to slash the budget for Mufasa down to only $200 Million, that's gonna be a tough hill to climb to break even if it only opens to $50 Million the weekend before Christmas.

The previous live action Lion King in 2019 had a production budget of $260 Million. Adjusted for the rampant and still-rising inflation of the past few years, that would be a production budget of $320 Million today.

Were they able to slash over a third from the budget for Mufasa? Let's hope so. Regardless, it's going to be fun to have two whole Disney movies to track in the box office again this Christmas vacation! It's just like the old days!

Well, they did slash some money from the budget of 2019’s Lion King, but Mufasa: The Lion King cost $250M, $10M less than 2019 Lion King, according to Vulture.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, they did slash some money from the budget of 2019’s Lion King, but Mufasa: The Lion King cost $250M, $10M less than 2019 Lion King, according to Vulture.

Not sure what Vulture article you're looking at, but the one where they interview Jenkins back on Dec 5th doesn't have a budget figure for Mufasa. They talk about his next film and how it won't be a $250M movie, that is not confirmation that is the actual budget for Mufasa. So I wouldn't use that as the actual budget until its confirmed by Disney or one of the trades.

 

[LittleBuford]

Wicked had very small box office in foreign lands, except for modest box office interest in the UK.

It’s already the fourth highest-grossing film of 2024 in the UK and Ireland (the two countries’ box-office numbers are shared), having made over $20,000,000 more than Moana 2. I’m not sure why you’re characterising that as modest.

Oh, and remember Germany, where you claimed Wicked had flopped despite the fact it hadn’t even opened there yet? Well, it debuted this weekend to strong numbers.

It’s also doing really well in Australia.

 

[TP2000]

It’s already the fourth highest-grossing film of 2024 in the UK and Ireland (the two countries’ box-office numbers are shared), having made over $20,000,000 more than Moana 2. I’m not sure why you’re characterising that as modest.

It's modest compared to Moana 2 and other recent tentpole movies from Disney or big Hollywood studios.

The overseas box office for Wicked is crummy, at best. Most movies are able to at least pull in the same total as America from all its overseas markets combined. Some big blockbuster movies get up to double the American box office from their overseas runs. Wicked is the opposite of that, getting less than half its American box office from overseas markets.

Here's a statistical example of that, using recent women-focused tentpole movies as a comparison. Notice how Wicked can't even get half the American box office from overseas? That's crummy. And since a third of that box office comes from just the UK, compared to what those other movies did in the UK, the box office for Wicked in the UK is modest.

Even a huge bomb like The Marvels was able to pull in more box office from overseas than its miserable American box office last year. You wouldn't wish Wicked's weak overseas box office on a dog, which was my point.

 

[TP2000]

Well, they did slash some money from the budget of 2019’s Lion King, but Mufasa: The Lion King cost $250M, $10M less than 2019 Lion King, according to Vulture.

Oh, geez. If they really did spend $250 Million on Mufasa, before marketing, that's going to be scary to watch that box office dribble in if it's only expecting $50 Million from its debut weekend.

At that rate domestically and barring some massive overseas demand for it, Mufasa will lose at least $400 Million for Burbank. Perhaps more.

Surely they didn't spend $250 Million on production for Mufasa. It seems to be going nowhere, and my recent Target run set off my Popdar alarms that it was not only going nowhere, but going nowhere fast. They can't repeat the disasters of 2022 and 2023 already, they just can't.

 

[LittleBuford]

It's modest compared to Moana 2 and other recent tentpole movies from Disney or big Hollywood studios.

This makes no sense. As I pointed out, Wicked is doing significantly better in the UK (and Ireland) than Moana 2.

You’re conflating two different things: Wicked’s international performance writ large, which is indeed modest, and its performance in the UK (and Ireland), which is really very strong and much more in keeping with the US box office.

 

[DKampy]

It's modest compared to Moana 2 and other recent tentpole movies from Disney or big Hollywood studios.

The overseas box office for Wicked is crummy, at best. Most movies are able to at least pull in the same total as America from all its overseas markets combined. Some big blockbuster movies get up to double the American box office from their overseas runs. Wicked is the opposite of that, getting less than half its American box office from overseas markets.

Here's a statistical example of that, using recent women-focused tentpole movies as a comparison. Notice how Wicked can't even get half the American box office from overseas? That's crummy. And since a third of that box office comes from just the UK, compared to what those other movies did in the UK, the box office for Wicked in the UK is modest.

Even a huge bomb like The Marvels was able to pull in more box office from overseas than its miserable American box office last year. You wouldn't wish Wicked's weak overseas box office on a dog, which was my point.

View attachment 830933

I missed the stats for the UK…. Which is what you and @LittleBuford were debating

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Ah sh-t.

It seems critics feel #MufasaTheLionKing is just as mediocre as 2019’s Lion King.

Unfortunate, as I felt this was way better than the 2019 remake, but at least this can benefit #Moana2 during the holiday season now that audiences know they don’t have to see this film.

 

[Disney Irish]

Ah sh-t.

It seems critics feel #MufasaTheLionKing is just as mediocre as 2019’s Lion King.

Unfortunate, as I felt this was way better than the 2019 remake, but at least this can benefit #Moana2 during the holiday season now that audiences know they don’t have to see this film.

In other news, Mufasa only has to make $356M WW in order for TLK franchise to cross the $3B mark. Something that very few franchises actually do, and something that even fewer do in 3 or less movies unless your name is Avatar.

 

[Farerb]

At least this franchise can finally be put to rest after 30 years.

 

[Ghost93]

Well, I was never expecting Mufassa to be great, even though I hoped for better. I still maintain that the overall artistic direction for this movie was a mistake. Would have been better traditionally animated or even highly-stylized computer animated (in the vein of something like the Pixar movies or the Spiderverse movies). Aiming for photorealistic lions is just the wrong call for this type of story.

The negative reviews will likely put a dent in the box office as many were already on the fence about seeing Mufassa.

However, reading a lot of the reviews, it seems like some critics are treating the film harsher because they are Barry Jenkins fans and are mad he's dedicating his time to a mediocre studio film versus an artist-driven awards darling like Moonlight.

I think critics reacted similarly when Chloe Zhao — fresh off her Oscar win for Nomadland — directed Eternals. It wasn't the worst Marvel movie ever, yet I felt they treated it harsher because they expected more from the director and were mad she wasn't making the type of movie that made them fall in love with her in the first place.

 

[brideck]

However, reading a lot of the reviews, it seems like some critics are treating the film harsher because they are Barry Jenkins fans and are mad he's dedicating his time to a mediocre studio film versus an artist-driven awards darling like Moonlight.

I think critics reacted similarly when Chloe Zhao — fresh off her Oscar win for Nomadland — directed Eternals. It wasn't the worst Marvel movie ever, yet I felt they treated it harsher because they expected more from the director and were mad she wasn't making the type of movie that made them fall in love with her in the first place.

Absolutely this. Besides, when have critical scores mattered for family movies anytime recently? The Lion King (remake), Super Mario, etc. have all made bank despite having scores right in this neighborhood.

It's the Cinemascore and/or Popcorn-meter that are going to tell the story here.

 

[TalkingHead]

Aiming for photorealistic lions is just the wrong call for this type of story.

Which was likely Disney’s main requirement for this film so that it could be clearly marketed as a follow-up to 2019.

 

[TP2000]

Ah sh-t.

It seems critics feel #MufasaTheLionKing is just as mediocre as 2019’s Lion King.

Unfortunate, as I felt this was way better than the 2019 remake, but at least this can benefit #Moana2 during the holiday season now that audiences know they don’t have to see this film.

By my math, and confirmed by the banks of blinky lights here in the TP2000 Global Command Center, Moana 2 is on track to do about $14 Million this upcoming weekend (Dec. 20-22).

It will be interesting to see if Moana 2 can avoid another 50%-ish drop in box office this weekend and pull in something noticeably above $16 Million because of Mufasa being weak in its debut. But my gut tells me that won't happen, and Moana 2 will continue on its established trajectory this weekend, with or without Mufasa.

It's the following week where we'll have to see if Moana 2 gets a helpful big bump, once the children are out of school.

 

[TP2000]

This makes no sense. As I pointed out, Wicked is doing significantly better in the UK (and Ireland) than Moana 2.

Wicked has been out in the UK for a full week (and weekend) longer than Moana 2. The trendlines weren't much different for Wicked based on that extra week of box office it has in the UK. But we'll need to wait until January when both movies leave UK theaters to track the tale of the tape. I'm just not seeing a huge bump for Wicked in the UK compared to Moana 2, it's more like a modest bump.

You’re conflating two different things: Wicked’s international performance writ large, which is indeed modest, and its performance in the UK (and Ireland), which is really very strong and much more in keeping with the US box office.

Both Moana 2 and Wicked are modest everywhere, except for Wicked's overseas box office (except the UK where its modest). Wicked's non-UK overseas box office is just plain crummy. It flopped overseas.

Using the four women-focused tentpole movies I thought of earlier, just because I loved Barbie and I can't be amazed enough at how much The Marvels bombed everywhere on a $275 Million budget, here's how those four movies looked at the UK box office...

Wicked after 4 weekends = $55 Million
Moana 2 after 3 weekends = $33 Million
Barbie in 2023 = $126 Million
The Marvels in 2023 = $9 Million

Neither Wicked nor Moana 2 have bombed horrifically like The Marvels did. But neither of them will approach the huge overseas box office of Barbie.

Wicked is doing modestly well at the box office in the UK, while it has flopped (or is simply ignored) everywhere else besides the USA. Wicked is apparently a movie that only Americans (plus Canadians) or Brits (plus Irishmen?) have much interest in.

Wicked (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Wicked (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Absolutely this. Besides, when have critical scores mattered for family movies anytime recently? The Lion King (remake), Super Mario, etc. have all made bank despite having scores right in this neighborhood.

Exactly. The days of Siskel & Ebert, plus that guy with the crazy eyebrows and mustache on The Today Show (what was his name? I'll have to Google that) are long gone. Who cares what critics say? I knew I had to see Barbie about 8 seconds after watching the trailer the neighbor kids showed me on their phone at a Memorial Day barbecue. When you know, you know.

Like everything now, it's Social Media and a connected web of hundreds of millions of people, instead of just a half dozen pre-approved establishment "experts", that dictate trends and opinions today.

It's the Cinemascore and/or Popcorn-meter that are going to tell the story here.

Agreed. That score seems plugged in to the way people communicate and get their information from now. It will be interesting to see how it differs from the currently 60% score Mufasa has from professional critics.

 

[brideck]

Agreed. That score seems plugged in to the way people communicate and get their information from now. It will be interesting to see how it differs from the currently 60% score Mufasa has from professional critics.

I will say that the Cinemascore and Popcorn-meter (like most scales that the public uses to vote) are fundamentally broken from giving a score that feels truly meaningful. But for the purposes of predicting great word-of-mouth, Disney would be looking for something in the A-range and a popcorn score of >90%.