Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

Now that I've spent this afternoon going over Apes 9 numbers more thoroughly in my Global Command Center, I'm going to have to disagree with that box office assessment.

Based on the previous Apes movies, and how poor the legs have been for Apes 9 since it opened a week ago, and with a $160 Million production budget and an $80 Million global marketing budget, I would just spitball the math on Apes 9 to end up at about this by the end of June;

$165 Domestic, $185 Overseas, $345 Global Box Office Total = $67 Million Loss for 20th Century Studios on Apes 9

I should have given a range on that worldwide number, not real sure why I would have left it like that. It would basically be somewhere around 2x of what the domestic number would be, so $340m-$400m. You're basically right at the bottom end of that range, which I think I agree with. Precious few movies end up making 3x of their opening these days.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I agree that most people did not care for… The Lion King is my favorite Disney Movie… I did not care for the remake much mysel( it was really animated… there was nothing live action about it)… as I thought the original did it better… the best of the Disney live actions has been when they expanded on the original stories… and this is doing that as it is a prequel and Barry Jenkins is a confident director… of course I could be wrong… we won’t know until December

Agreed. My favorites so far has Maleficent and Cruella. So maybe Mufasa will have quite a bit of the Scar story which would be a plus.

I also thought Christopher Robin was quite good. The rest have been ok for me with some stinkers mixed in.

 

[Miss Rori]

Does Moana 2 come out this year? If so I agree. It will do well.

Maybe - but a billion dollars? I'm keeping in mind that this was only announced three months ago, is a retooled streaming series, doesn't have some key original talent returning (no Musker-Clements, no Lin-Manuel Miranda, etc.), isn't being handled by the Burbank studio, and that the retooling has been clearly rushed so Disney would have something for the Thanksgiving slot after they had to move Mufasa - The Lion King to Christmas, because they know they can't pin all their hopes for the holiday season on just one picture. (Especially since that movie's now opening directly against Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which is gunning for the exact same audience of children.)

They really, really, really don't want Wicked Part One (which also opens over Thanksgiving weekend) to perform the same way, or better, than Wonka did last year, and they want to save face at WDFAS after the disasters of Strange World and especially Wish. Moana remains one of the more popular post-Frozen WDFAS films, granted, and the name will probably draw in families who think Wicked Part One is too mature for the tots, but unless it turns out to be exceptionally good I think the sequel will come up short of a billion.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

No I don't think a bil. But I could see 600 to 800 mil. Moana remains wildly popular on D+

 

[Farerb]

I'm keeping in mind that this was only announced three months ago, is a retooled streaming series, doesn't have some key original talent returning (no Musker-Clements, no Lin-Manuel Miranda, etc.), isn't being handled by the Burbank studio, and that the retooling has been clearly rushed so Disney would have something for the Thanksgiving slot

Families and kids don't care about any of these issues.

 

[TP2000]

Hiya, gang. Box Office data is out for yesterday's preview sales, which should show how this second weekend for Apes 9 will pan out. It looks like the two new movies, IF and The Strangers, won't be too much competition for Apes 9. But as we discussed earlier, Apes 9 has had poor legs this past week and needs a strong weekend globally to put it back on a trajectory to its breakeven of $460-ish Million from the global box office.

And there's also The First Omen from 20th Century Studios still out there. This could be its last weekend in theaters, and we can do a box office financial tally on how much it lost and put it into the 2024 record books perhaps by Monday.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Wednesday January 22, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Wednesday January 22, 2025

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

In an unstable market, why did Apes thrive? Why was it a hit while the equally well reviewed Fall Guy failed?

Setting aside the overly ambitious use of the word "thrive" to describe Apes 9's box office thus far, I looked into the box office stats on Apes 9 vs. The Fall Guy (something something bail of hay. Hey, hey!) for us.

Due to The Fall Guy having a production budget less than 80% that of Apes 9, both movies appear to be on the same path to a similar financial loss for their respective studios. We can continue tracking this for a few more weeks to see where it lands, as perhaps Apes 9 will get a needed boost globally from its current lackluster trajectory.

But for now, both of these movies financial results are more similar than they are different...

The Fall Guy: Production $125, Marketing $63, Domestic $33, Overseas $22 = $133 Million Loss thus far
Apes 9: Production $160, Marketing $80, Domestic $45, Overseas $29 = $166 Million Loss thus far

Movie Comparison: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) vs. The Fall Guy (2024)

Domestic box office comparison between Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) and The Fall Guy (2024)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Casper Gutman]

Wicked has built up a huge fan base over its 20+ year run, and the Oz fandom is pretty large as well. I personally think it will be a smash hit, but what do you mean about the PR material hiding?

I was referring to Miss Rori's second point - Wicked is half a musical and ends at the finale of Act 1. The ad campaign is being really deceptive about this.

 

[MagicHappens1971]

I was referring to Miss Rori's second point - Wicked is half a musical and ends at the finale of Act 1. The ad campaign is being really deceptive about this.

I the ad campaign is indeed being very deceptive about the Part 1 / 2 thing, and while the teaser trailer released during the Super Bowl steered away from the fact that it’s a musical, the full trailer that was released a few days ago makes it pretty clear that it’s a musical.

 

[Tha Realest]

I have been surprised it has taken this long to get Wicked to theaters… it feels like it is the biggest musical show of the last 20 years

It is, but there’s likely a thought amongst old school Broadway types that you squeeze all you can out of Broadway ticket sales, and touring, and then - and only then - do you grant rights to a film version. Both Les Miserables and Cats took right over/under 30 years to make it to the big screen.

 

[Tha Realest]

Agreed. My favorites so far has Maleficent and Cruella. So maybe Mufasa will have quite a bit of the Scar story which would be a plus.

I also thought Christopher Robin was quite good. The rest have been ok for me with some stinkers mixed in.

Maleficent had the benefit of Angelina Jolie completely embodying an iconic role. I had my issues with the film but the set design and iconography were top notch.

Cruella also had the benefit of some of our finest working actors today (Stone, Thompson, Hauser) with an absolutely inspired take on the character and setting. It was it’s own thing while also touching on the broad aspects of the character.

I didn’t hate The Jungle Book, as it felt new and fresh (as far as these remakes go).

 

[TP2000]

First pass at this weekend's Box Office is out! It was a rather slow weekend at the American box office, with IF on its way to bombing and The Strangers doing poorly. Smooshed in the middle there is Apes 9, which saw a big 55% drop off in box office for its second weekend.

First pass at this weekend's overseas box office shows Apes 9 coming out of this second weekend with a global total of about $240 Million, which is half of the $480-ish Million that Apes 9 will need to break even.

We'll all continue tracking Apes 9 obviously, but it's not looking good for getting to break even thus far, barring a huge surge in global box office this next week, its 3rd week out.

More details and exact figures tomorrow, but here's how this slow weekend looked for the Top 10 domestically.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Cruella also had the benefit of some of our finest working actors today (Stone, Thompson, Hauser) with an absolutely inspired take on the character and setting. It was it’s own thing while also touching on the broad aspects of the character.

My sister had us watch Cruella last year for a family movie night. I really enjoyed it, and loved the vintage 70's setting. The Liberty department store setting looked/reminded my sister and I both of the old I. Magnin in downtown Seattle during those years, where our mom and aunts held court in the tea room. Hilarious!

I remember the kids losing interest and wandering away 15 minutes in (what do they know about fashion?!?), but my sister and her husband and I all thought it was fun and entertaining.

The actress who played Cruella was hilariously fabulous, in particular.

 

[TP2000]

Inflation adjusted Deadpool grosses look like this:
Deadpool) ~1,023 Million
Deadpool 2) ~981 Million

Deadpool 3, with Hugh Jackman thrown into the mix, should be able to reach or surpass the heights of the original. The only way it doesn't pass a billion is if it drastically underperforms the original films. I'm no Deadpool fan, but I think the numbers and Wolverine are pretty compelling.

The budget for Deadpool 3 isn't yet nailed down by Variety and such, but I Googled and it's being reported in multiple industry sources that it is "at least $250 Million".

Assuming a global marketing budget of $125 Million on top of that huge production budget, and Deadpool 3 would need roughly $750 Million globally to break even. If Deadpool 3 gets to a $1 Billion global total, that would give Marvel a $125 Million profit.

This will certainly give us something to talk about in this thread during the Dog Days this summer!

 

[BrianLo]

In my opinion, Moana 2 is the only movie from Disney that has the potential to do more than a billion this year. People underestimate how popular the original has become since its release. It is constantly in Disney+' top 10 titles, not even the Frozen film are.

It's going to depend on reviews on that one. I'm still a bit cautious about the turnaround timeframe and the amount of cutting that must occur to make a ~100 minute runtime movie from whatever the series was supposed to be.

If it's good, ya, it's going to do gangbusters.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

It's going to depend on reviews on that one. I'm still a bit cautious about the turnaround timeframe and the amount of cutting that must occur to make a ~100 minute runtime movie from whatever the series was supposed to be.

That the news came out of nowhere and we have no trailer yet is not encouraging, but I have to think there will be one in time for Inside Out 2's release.

 

[BrianLo]

which is half of the $480-ish Million that Apes 9 will need to break even.

I haven't been paying that close attention, but when did we move away from the 2.5X rule to 3X? I think that's causing you to over-estimate loses. Now that the 2024 financials are out, content loses were not in line with your last year estimates, probably because of that.

The budget for Deadpool 3 isn't yet nailed down by Variety and such, but I Googled and it's being reported in multiple industry sources that it is "at least $250 Million".

Assuming a global marketing budget of $125 Million on top of that huge production budget, and Deadpool 3 would need roughly $750 Million globally to break even. If Deadpool 3 gets to a $1 Billion global total, that would give Marvel a $125 Million profit.

This will certainly give us something to talk about in this thread during the Dog Days this summer!

Guardians 3 will be a good comp if that budget is accurate. Its break even ended up around 600 million (2.5X would have predicted 625).

I very much personally think 750+ million is their goal though. Particularly in light of how Logan and other Deadpool movies performed.

 

[Tha Realest]

That the news came out of nowhere and we have no trailer yet is not encouraging, but I have to think there will be one in time for Inside Out 2's release.

Let’s hope! The Rock just recorded his lines earlier this month!

 

[BrianLo]

Actually, I'd like to lend further credence to the 2.5X rule. Thank you for @TP2000 - I am literally stealing your homework.

I performed an incredibly, incredibly crude calculation.
(2.5X Production Budget minus The global box office) / 2

I did not bother breaking down the percentages of domestic v. international. Nor did I bother with proposed marketing, that is all baked into the 2.5X. I just want to compare the results to what the company actually reported fiscally.

Studios
Q2 2023 (-50)
Q3 2023 (-243)
Q4 2023 (-149)
Q1 2024 (-224)
Q2 2024 (-18)
--
684 Loss over 5 quarters
709 Loss Based on the super rough 2.5X rule

Marvel Studios = $234 Million Loss
Ant Man: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $129 Domestic, $100 Overseas = $71 Million Loss (12 Loss)
Guardians 3: $250 Production/$100 Marketing: $215 Domestic, $195 Overseas = $60 Million Profit (110)
The Marvels: $220* Production/$100 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $46 Overseas = $223 Million Loss (234 Loss) - I fixed for the * and used 270 as the budget

Walt Disney Pictures = $276 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $158 Production/$75 Marketing, $41 Domestic, $19 Overseas = $173 Million Loss (139 Loss)
The Little Mermaid: $250 Production/$140 Marketing, $179 Domestic, $108 Overseas = $103 Million Loss (14.5 Loss)

Pixar Studios = $74 Million Loss
Elemental: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $93 Domestic, $133 Overseas = $74 Million Loss (2 Loss)

Walt Disney Animation Studios = $216 Million Loss
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $37 Domestic, $47 Overseas = $216 Million Loss (122.5)

Lucasfilm Studios = $212 Million Loss
Indiana Jones 5: $300 Production/$100 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $83 Overseas = $212 Million Loss (180)

Searchlight Pictures =
Chevalier: $46 Production/$15 Marketing, $2 Million Domestic, $200,000 Overseas = $58 Million Loss (55.5)
Theater Camp: $8 Production/$4 Marketing, $2.4 Domestic, $300,000 Overseas = $9 Million Loss (7.5)
Next Goal Wins: $10 Production/$5 Marketing, $4 Domestic, $300,000 Overseas = $10 Million Loss (3)
Poor Things: $35 Production/$15 Marketing, $7 Domestic, $0 Overseas = $43 Million Loss (15 Profit)

20th Century Studios = $116 Million Loss
The Boogeyman: $35 Production/$15 Marketing, $26 Domestic, $16 Overseas = $8 Million Loss (2.5)
A Haunting In Venice: $60 Production/$30 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $29 Overseas = $36 Million Loss (14)
The Creator: $80 Production/$40 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $23 Overseas = $72 Million Loss (48)

2023 Grand Total = $1,284,000,000 Loss (709)

I truly think this is a better *rough* barometer. The final results also line up a lot closer to what Deadline reported as well. https://deadline.com/2024/05/biggest-box-office-bombs-2023-lowest-grossing-movies-1235902825/

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

It's going to depend on reviews on that one. I'm still a bit cautious about the turnaround timeframe and the amount of cutting that must occur to make a ~100 minute runtime movie from whatever the series was supposed to be.

If it's good, ya, it's going to do gangbusters.

I assumed it would just be the first few episodes of the show edited into a movie.

Same as the Clone Wars animated movie, which isn't exactly regarded as a classic.