Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Casper Gutman]

I think the only movies this year with the ability to do 1B+, are Deadpool/Wolverine, Wicked, Inside Out & *maybe* Mufasa.

I think Despicable Me 4 has a better shot then any except maybe Deadpool. Joker 2 might also have a shot (it shouldn't, but it might). I have real doubts about Wicked, especially given what the PR material may be hiding which might really alienate audiences.

 

[Disney Irish]

I suppose Kingdom's chances this weekend largely depend on whether there's a chunk of interested, older audiences who haven't seen it yet but want to. This is an older-skewing franchise, not the kind where everybody's rushing to see a new installment right away ala Star Wars or (once) the MCU.

There's no competition this weekend aside from IF, which is gunning for the family market and is definitely being given a big marketing push by Paramount, but the reviews so far have been fine at best, toxic at worst. A lot of unflattering comparisons to Pixar movies are being made, although curiously it also seems to have similar problems to Wish in that its plot is needlessly complicated and the stakes are unclear. It only has one weekend to "hit" before direct competition from next weekend's more obviously kid-appealing The Garfield Movie, so if it underperforms it's DOA.

I saw IF tonight, there was a 5 minute pre-roll BTS that played in-front of the movie where Ryan Reynolds literally said that it was a Pixar movie come to life.

Overall I liked it but can see where some criticism is coming from. The movie had heart but the overall premise fell flat half way through in my opinion. So it was a cute one-time watch for me.

 

[TP2000]

I have real doubts about Wicked, especially given what the PR material may be hiding which might really alienate audiences.

I haven't Googled yet, but lemme guess... the Wicked Witch isn't exactly boy crazy? She plays fastpitch softball on Thursday nights and can help you build a backyard deck? Stunning and brave?!?

 

[MagicHappens1971]

I think Despicable Me 4 has a better shot then any except maybe Deadpool. Joker 2 might also have a shot (it shouldn't, but it might). I have real doubts about Wicked, especially given what the PR material may be hiding which might really alienate audiences.

Wicked has built up a huge fan base over its 20+ year run, and the Oz fandom is pretty large as well. I personally think it will be a smash hit, but what do you mean about the PR material hiding?

 

[Miss Rori]

Wicked has built up a huge fan base over its 20+ year run, and the Oz fandom is pretty large as well. I personally think it will be a smash hit, but what do you mean about the PR material hiding?

There are two rather important things that Universal's not making clear in the promotional materials for this movie so far.

1. That it is a full-on musical - in the Super Bowl spot and now the extra-length theatrical trailer released this week, you hear some singing and see a bit of dancing, but you don't actually see the characters singing. This has been standard-issue advertising for most non-biographical musical films in the last 20 years or so, most recently with Wonka and the musical versions of The Color Purple and Mean Girls* -- but it still cheeses off some viewers who go to the theater and complain that they "didn't know people would be singing". Maybe it's because theater in general doesn't have the reach it used to, but not everybody who hears about this Wicked movie is going to know right away that this is an adaptation of a stage musical.
2. That it is the first half of a two-part adaptation, ala the recent Dune films, with the second part to be released in 2025. (In fact the actual title is Wicked Part One. Part Two was shot at the same time, so it's all set to go.) Notice that the extra-length trailer shows little beyond Elphaba fleeing the Emerald City via broomstick, because that's the ending of Act One of the show and thus this film. They're stretching out the material with new characters, songs, and some backstory material lifted from Gregory Maguire's source novel. If this isn't made clearer by the point of release, this again could upset casual viewers when the movie ends on a massive cliffhanger.

*Basically, there's an assumption that there's a huge swath of potential viewers who cannot abide musicals. And to be fair, the last two movie musicals I can think of offhand that made it abundantly clear in the ads that they were musicals were Cats and Wish, and honesty was not the best policy in those cases.

 

[TP2000]

There are two rather important things that Universal's not making clear in the promotional materials for this movie so far.

1. That it is a full-on musical - in the Super Bowl spot and now the extra-length theatrical trailer released this week, you hear some singing and see a bit of dancing, but you don't actually see the characters singing. This has been standard-issue advertising for most non-biographical musical films in the last 20 years or so, most recently with Wonka and the musical versions of The Color Purple and Mean Girls* -- but it still cheeses off some viewers who go to the theater and complain that they "didn't know people would be singing". Maybe it's because theater in general doesn't have the reach it used to, but not everybody who hears about this Wicked movie is going to know right away that this is an adaptation of a stage musical.
2. That it is the first half of a two-part adaptation, ala the recent Dune films, with the second part to be released in 2025. (In fact the actual title is Wicked Part One. Part Two was shot at the same time, so it's all set to go.) Notice that the extra-length trailer shows little beyond Elphaba fleeing the Emerald City via broomstick, because that's the ending of Act One of the show and thus this film. They're stretching out the material with new characters, songs, and some backstory material lifted from Gregory Maguire's source novel. If this isn't made clearer by the point of release, this again could upset casual viewers when the movie ends on a massive cliffhanger.

*Basically, there's an assumption that there's a huge swath of potential viewers who cannot abide musicals. And to be fair, the last two movie musicals I can think of offhand that made it abundantly clear in the ads that they were musicals were Cats and Wish, and honesty was not the best policy in those cases.

So no veiled sub-plot around fastpitch softball then? Darnit.

 

[Miss Rori]

So no veiled sub-plot around fastpitch softball then? Darnit.

A big part of the story involves Glinda and Elphaba's rivalry for the affections of Prince Fiyero, but queer interpretations of the ladies' enemies-to-friends relationship have been part of the musical's fandom from day one, to put it mildly. I'm confident the movie won't discourage those takes.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I think Despicable Me 4 has a better shot then any except maybe Deadpool. Joker 2 might also have a shot (it shouldn't, but it might). I have real doubts about Wicked, especially given what the PR material may be hiding which might really alienate audiences.

I see no way Mufasa comes close to 1B. I think Inside Out 2 will do better, but still wont hit 1B.

 

[DKampy]

There are two rather important things that Universal's not making clear in the promotional materials for this movie so far.

1. That it is a full-on musical - in the Super Bowl spot and now the extra-length theatrical trailer released this week, you hear some singing and see a bit of dancing, but you don't actually see the characters singing. This has been standard-issue advertising for most non-biographical musical films in the last 20 years or so, most recently with Wonka and the musical versions of The Color Purple and Mean Girls* -- but it still cheeses off some viewers who go to the theater and complain that they "didn't know people would be singing". Maybe it's because theater in general doesn't have the reach it used to, but not everybody who hears about this Wicked movie is going to know right away that this is an adaptation of a stage musical.

Are people really unaware that Wicked is based on a stage musical…I have been surprised it has taken this long to get Wicked to theaters… it feels like it is the biggest musical show of the last 20 years

 

[DKampy]

I see no way Mufasa comes close to 1B. I think Inside Out 2 will do better, but still wont hit 1B.

I would not be so quick to count out Mufasa… The Lion King has it’s legions on super fans… Yes some people did not care for the remake… but this is adding to the story via a prequel… it could come down to reviews and word of mouth

 

[erasure fan1]

I see no way Mufasa comes close to 1B

Mufasa is a funny case. I can see it tanking based on what most people I see thought about it. Even the Disney live action apologists seem to hate it. But at the same time, 1.6 bil for the first one. So I can see people giving Mufasa a chance.

 

[Farerb]

In my opinion, Moana 2 is the only movie from Disney that has the potential to do more than a billion this year. People underestimate how popular the original has become since its release. It is constantly in Disney+' top 10 titles, not even the Frozen film are.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I would not be so quick to count out Mufasa… The Lion King has it’s legions on super fans… Yes some people did not care for the remake… but this is adding to the story via a prequel… it could come down to reviews and word of mouth

Mufasa is a funny case. I can see it tanking based on what most people I see thought about it. Even the Disney live action apologists seem to hate it. But at the same time, 1.6 bil for the first one. So I can see people giving Mufasa a chance.

True. But I think live action was kinda the hot thing at the time so people went out to see it. I think people are cooling on LA a bit.

Only my simple opinion of course.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

In my opinion, Moana 2 is the only movie from Disney that has the potential to do more than a billion this year. People underestimate how popular the original has become since its release. It is constantly in Disney+' top 10 titles, not even the Frozen film are.

Does Moana 2 come out this year? If so I agree. It will do well.

 

[DKampy]

True. But I think live action was kinda the hot thing at the time so people went out to see it. I think people are cooling on LA a bit.

Only my simple opinion of course.

I agree that most people did not care for… The Lion King is my favorite Disney Movie… I did not care for the remake much mysel( it was really animated… there was nothing live action about it)… as I thought the original did it better… the best of the Disney live actions has been when they expanded on the original stories… and this is doing that as it is a prequel and Barry Jenkins is a confident director… of course I could be wrong… we won’t know until December

 

[brideck]

Now that I've spent this afternoon going over Apes 9 numbers more thoroughly in my Global Command Center, I'm going to have to disagree with that box office assessment.

Based on the previous Apes movies, and how poor the legs have been for Apes 9 since it opened a week ago, and with a $160 Million production budget and an $80 Million global marketing budget, I would just spitball the math on Apes 9 to end up at about this by the end of June;

$165 Domestic, $185 Overseas, $345 Global Box Office Total = $67 Million Loss for 20th Century Studios on Apes 9

I should have given a range on that worldwide number, not real sure why I would have left it like that. It would basically be somewhere around 2x of what the domestic number would be, so $340m-$400m. You're basically right at the bottom end of that range, which I think I agree with. Precious few movies end up making 3x of their opening these days.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I agree that most people did not care for… The Lion King is my favorite Disney Movie… I did not care for the remake much mysel( it was really animated… there was nothing live action about it)… as I thought the original did it better… the best of the Disney live actions has been when they expanded on the original stories… and this is doing that as it is a prequel and Barry Jenkins is a confident director… of course I could be wrong… we won’t know until December

Agreed. My favorites so far has Maleficent and Cruella. So maybe Mufasa will have quite a bit of the Scar story which would be a plus.

I also thought Christopher Robin was quite good. The rest have been ok for me with some stinkers mixed in.

 

[Miss Rori]

Does Moana 2 come out this year? If so I agree. It will do well.

Maybe - but a billion dollars? I'm keeping in mind that this was only announced three months ago, is a retooled streaming series, doesn't have some key original talent returning (no Musker-Clements, no Lin-Manuel Miranda, etc.), isn't being handled by the Burbank studio, and that the retooling has been clearly rushed so Disney would have something for the Thanksgiving slot after they had to move Mufasa - The Lion King to Christmas, because they know they can't pin all their hopes for the holiday season on just one picture. (Especially since that movie's now opening directly against Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which is gunning for the exact same audience of children.)

They really, really, really don't want Wicked Part One (which also opens over Thanksgiving weekend) to perform the same way, or better, than Wonka did last year, and they want to save face at WDFAS after the disasters of Strange World and especially Wish. Moana remains one of the more popular post-Frozen WDFAS films, granted, and the name will probably draw in families who think Wicked Part One is too mature for the tots, but unless it turns out to be exceptionally good I think the sequel will come up short of a billion.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

No I don't think a bil. But I could see 600 to 800 mil. Moana remains wildly popular on D+

 

[Farerb]

I'm keeping in mind that this was only announced three months ago, is a retooled streaming series, doesn't have some key original talent returning (no Musker-Clements, no Lin-Manuel Miranda, etc.), isn't being handled by the Burbank studio, and that the retooling has been clearly rushed so Disney would have something for the Thanksgiving slot

Families and kids don't care about any of these issues.