Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Animaniac93-98]

If anyone's setting the yardstick of mega success at a billion dollars these days, prepare to be disappointed.

Realistic or not, I guarantee you certain movies like Frozen 3 will be expected to hit those kinds of number.

 

[Miss Rori]

I saw Kingdom of Apes last week, it was good. Both critic and audience scores are good overall, so it has at least some positive buzz around it. Will it leg out over the next few weeks, we'll see. The big test will be next week against Furiosa as that would seem to be a similar audience.

I suppose Kingdom's chances this weekend largely depend on whether there's a chunk of interested, older audiences who haven't seen it yet but want to. This is an older-skewing franchise, not the kind where everybody's rushing to see a new installment right away ala Star Wars or (once) the MCU.

There's no competition this weekend aside from IF, which is gunning for the family market and is definitely being given a big marketing push by Paramount, but the reviews so far have been fine at best, toxic at worst. A lot of unflattering comparisons to Pixar movies are being made, although curiously it also seems to have similar problems to Wish in that its plot is needlessly complicated and the stakes are unclear. It only has one weekend to "hit" before direct competition from next weekend's more obviously kid-appealing The Garfield Movie, so if it underperforms it's DOA.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

To be glib, why do big monkey movies seem to be the most reliable box office performers in 2024?

Wicked has FLYING monkeys in it.

Should do gangbusters.

 

[MagicHappens1971]

I think the only movies this year with the ability to do 1B+, are Deadpool/Wolverine, Wicked, Inside Out & *maybe* Mufasa.

 

[TP2000]

I like the Global Command Center's projection! It's around where I'm thinking this film lands. I bet Disney was hoping to make money on this franchise. But compared to many recent Disney box office numbers, a $67 million loss is actually pretty good!

Thank you. Now that I'm back home it's on my radar now, and I have asked Mr. Johnson to keep a close eye on it in the Global Command Center for us. From the stats and data I've seen thus far, I just don't see how it cracks $400 Million globally, much less its apparent breakeven point of $480 Million.

Rest assured, if something changes on Apes 9 in the TP2000 Global Command Center, Mr. Johnson will alert me ASAP.

 

[TP2000]

Again, it had a good start. It's a bit early to say thrive. I hope it does, they kept the budget within reason and it still looks good from an effects standpoint. It also doesn't seem to have overspent on the marketing. So that would be a great turnaround if it can get over $450mil to make a profit.

Agreed. I did see quite a few Apes 9 commercials on TV and on YouTube the past two weeks, and I'm not even in the target demographic by a long shot.

With a production budget of $160 Million, a typical global marketing budget of $80 Million would be average. I can easily see how they spent that much on it globally, and it got the full-service big Hollywood Premiere! treatment a few weeks ago as this Twitter video shows. Disney didn't go overboard on marketing Apes 9 like they did with Mermaid or Wish, but they spent some decent money getting this one off the ground.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I think the only movies this year with the ability to do 1B+, are Deadpool/Wolverine, Wicked, Inside Out & *maybe* Mufasa.

I think Despicable Me 4 has a better shot then any except maybe Deadpool. Joker 2 might also have a shot (it shouldn't, but it might). I have real doubts about Wicked, especially given what the PR material may be hiding which might really alienate audiences.

 

[Disney Irish]

I suppose Kingdom's chances this weekend largely depend on whether there's a chunk of interested, older audiences who haven't seen it yet but want to. This is an older-skewing franchise, not the kind where everybody's rushing to see a new installment right away ala Star Wars or (once) the MCU.

There's no competition this weekend aside from IF, which is gunning for the family market and is definitely being given a big marketing push by Paramount, but the reviews so far have been fine at best, toxic at worst. A lot of unflattering comparisons to Pixar movies are being made, although curiously it also seems to have similar problems to Wish in that its plot is needlessly complicated and the stakes are unclear. It only has one weekend to "hit" before direct competition from next weekend's more obviously kid-appealing The Garfield Movie, so if it underperforms it's DOA.

I saw IF tonight, there was a 5 minute pre-roll BTS that played in-front of the movie where Ryan Reynolds literally said that it was a Pixar movie come to life.

Overall I liked it but can see where some criticism is coming from. The movie had heart but the overall premise fell flat half way through in my opinion. So it was a cute one-time watch for me.

 

[TP2000]

I have real doubts about Wicked, especially given what the PR material may be hiding which might really alienate audiences.

I haven't Googled yet, but lemme guess... the Wicked Witch isn't exactly boy crazy? She plays fastpitch softball on Thursday nights and can help you build a backyard deck? Stunning and brave?!?

 

[MagicHappens1971]

I think Despicable Me 4 has a better shot then any except maybe Deadpool. Joker 2 might also have a shot (it shouldn't, but it might). I have real doubts about Wicked, especially given what the PR material may be hiding which might really alienate audiences.

Wicked has built up a huge fan base over its 20+ year run, and the Oz fandom is pretty large as well. I personally think it will be a smash hit, but what do you mean about the PR material hiding?

 

[Miss Rori]

Wicked has built up a huge fan base over its 20+ year run, and the Oz fandom is pretty large as well. I personally think it will be a smash hit, but what do you mean about the PR material hiding?

There are two rather important things that Universal's not making clear in the promotional materials for this movie so far.

1. That it is a full-on musical - in the Super Bowl spot and now the extra-length theatrical trailer released this week, you hear some singing and see a bit of dancing, but you don't actually see the characters singing. This has been standard-issue advertising for most non-biographical musical films in the last 20 years or so, most recently with Wonka and the musical versions of The Color Purple and Mean Girls* -- but it still cheeses off some viewers who go to the theater and complain that they "didn't know people would be singing". Maybe it's because theater in general doesn't have the reach it used to, but not everybody who hears about this Wicked movie is going to know right away that this is an adaptation of a stage musical.
2. That it is the first half of a two-part adaptation, ala the recent Dune films, with the second part to be released in 2025. (In fact the actual title is Wicked Part One. Part Two was shot at the same time, so it's all set to go.) Notice that the extra-length trailer shows little beyond Elphaba fleeing the Emerald City via broomstick, because that's the ending of Act One of the show and thus this film. They're stretching out the material with new characters, songs, and some backstory material lifted from Gregory Maguire's source novel. If this isn't made clearer by the point of release, this again could upset casual viewers when the movie ends on a massive cliffhanger.

*Basically, there's an assumption that there's a huge swath of potential viewers who cannot abide musicals. And to be fair, the last two movie musicals I can think of offhand that made it abundantly clear in the ads that they were musicals were Cats and Wish, and honesty was not the best policy in those cases.

 

[TP2000]

There are two rather important things that Universal's not making clear in the promotional materials for this movie so far.

1. That it is a full-on musical - in the Super Bowl spot and now the extra-length theatrical trailer released this week, you hear some singing and see a bit of dancing, but you don't actually see the characters singing. This has been standard-issue advertising for most non-biographical musical films in the last 20 years or so, most recently with Wonka and the musical versions of The Color Purple and Mean Girls* -- but it still cheeses off some viewers who go to the theater and complain that they "didn't know people would be singing". Maybe it's because theater in general doesn't have the reach it used to, but not everybody who hears about this Wicked movie is going to know right away that this is an adaptation of a stage musical.
2. That it is the first half of a two-part adaptation, ala the recent Dune films, with the second part to be released in 2025. (In fact the actual title is Wicked Part One. Part Two was shot at the same time, so it's all set to go.) Notice that the extra-length trailer shows little beyond Elphaba fleeing the Emerald City via broomstick, because that's the ending of Act One of the show and thus this film. They're stretching out the material with new characters, songs, and some backstory material lifted from Gregory Maguire's source novel. If this isn't made clearer by the point of release, this again could upset casual viewers when the movie ends on a massive cliffhanger.

*Basically, there's an assumption that there's a huge swath of potential viewers who cannot abide musicals. And to be fair, the last two movie musicals I can think of offhand that made it abundantly clear in the ads that they were musicals were Cats and Wish, and honesty was not the best policy in those cases.

So no veiled sub-plot around fastpitch softball then? Darnit.

 

[Miss Rori]

So no veiled sub-plot around fastpitch softball then? Darnit.

A big part of the story involves Glinda and Elphaba's rivalry for the affections of Prince Fiyero, but queer interpretations of the ladies' enemies-to-friends relationship have been part of the musical's fandom from day one, to put it mildly. I'm confident the movie won't discourage those takes.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I think Despicable Me 4 has a better shot then any except maybe Deadpool. Joker 2 might also have a shot (it shouldn't, but it might). I have real doubts about Wicked, especially given what the PR material may be hiding which might really alienate audiences.

I see no way Mufasa comes close to 1B. I think Inside Out 2 will do better, but still wont hit 1B.

 

[DKampy]

There are two rather important things that Universal's not making clear in the promotional materials for this movie so far.

1. That it is a full-on musical - in the Super Bowl spot and now the extra-length theatrical trailer released this week, you hear some singing and see a bit of dancing, but you don't actually see the characters singing. This has been standard-issue advertising for most non-biographical musical films in the last 20 years or so, most recently with Wonka and the musical versions of The Color Purple and Mean Girls* -- but it still cheeses off some viewers who go to the theater and complain that they "didn't know people would be singing". Maybe it's because theater in general doesn't have the reach it used to, but not everybody who hears about this Wicked movie is going to know right away that this is an adaptation of a stage musical.

Are people really unaware that Wicked is based on a stage musical…I have been surprised it has taken this long to get Wicked to theaters… it feels like it is the biggest musical show of the last 20 years

 

[DKampy]

I see no way Mufasa comes close to 1B. I think Inside Out 2 will do better, but still wont hit 1B.

I would not be so quick to count out Mufasa… The Lion King has it’s legions on super fans… Yes some people did not care for the remake… but this is adding to the story via a prequel… it could come down to reviews and word of mouth

 

[erasure fan1]

I see no way Mufasa comes close to 1B

Mufasa is a funny case. I can see it tanking based on what most people I see thought about it. Even the Disney live action apologists seem to hate it. But at the same time, 1.6 bil for the first one. So I can see people giving Mufasa a chance.

 

[Farerb]

In my opinion, Moana 2 is the only movie from Disney that has the potential to do more than a billion this year. People underestimate how popular the original has become since its release. It is constantly in Disney+' top 10 titles, not even the Frozen film are.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I would not be so quick to count out Mufasa… The Lion King has it’s legions on super fans… Yes some people did not care for the remake… but this is adding to the story via a prequel… it could come down to reviews and word of mouth

Mufasa is a funny case. I can see it tanking based on what most people I see thought about it. Even the Disney live action apologists seem to hate it. But at the same time, 1.6 bil for the first one. So I can see people giving Mufasa a chance.

True. But I think live action was kinda the hot thing at the time so people went out to see it. I think people are cooling on LA a bit.

Only my simple opinion of course.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

In my opinion, Moana 2 is the only movie from Disney that has the potential to do more than a billion this year. People underestimate how popular the original has become since its release. It is constantly in Disney+' top 10 titles, not even the Frozen film are.

Does Moana 2 come out this year? If so I agree. It will do well.