When you keep the budget in the 120 to 150mil range while being smart with your ad campaign, it gives you a great shot to make profit. At least from what I've seen in the trailers, the cg and special effects are as good as anything that's come out of marvel, lucasfilm or Disney studios at double the budget. I know you can't make an avengers film for 125mil. But why does an antman or the marvels or a live action remake have to be 250/300mil? So it seems you can have quality, at least from a effects standpoint, with a modest budget. And the beauty is, if it opens like is predicted, it will avoid the "here we go again, another financial disaster" headlines. Why? Because it won't have to do 750mil just to break even.It looks like the budget was around $125 Million, but not confirmed. With a $60 Million marketing budget added in, that would mean Apes 9 will need box office of about $360 Million globally to break even, give or take.
I have no idea how the new Planet of the Apes movie will do, but my gut instinct tells me around $450-$475 million worldwide.
Previewing where things will likely land this weekend, for The First Omen as Disney's only movie in theaters until the Apes arrive next weekend.
I saw that movie in a theater once, the day it came out. That was enough.Eh? Disney's liable to have the #2 movie this weekend in their reissue of The Phantom Menace. I've seen predictions of $10m+ for that.
Agreed… as a fan of the original trilogy… that was one of my biggest disappointing theater experiencesI saw that movie in a theater once, the day it came out. That was enough.
More and more the box office seems to have little to do with film quality. Fall Guy is a very well reviewed film with great promos and two big leads and it’s underperforming. Godzilla x Kong was a badly reviewed sequel that significantly outperformed the much better reviewed earlier films in the franchise. We can all list more really good films that underperformed over the last couple years (Dungeons and Dragons is a sore spot for me) then we can list films that earned what they deserved.Fall Guy allegedly cost $220-$230 million in combined marketing and production costs after tax deductions
It's projected to open with $28 million domestically.
Fall Guy is a very well reviewed film with great promos and two big leads and it’s underperforming.
This is not new. That’s why blockbusters historically were not reliable Oscar contenders.More and more the box office seems to have little to do with film quality. Fall Guy is a very well reviewed film with great promos and two big leads and it’s underperforming. Godzilla x Kong was a badly reviewed sequel that significantly outperformed the much better reviewed earlier films in the franchise. We can all list more really good films that underperformed over the last couple years (Dungeons and Dragons is a sore spot for me) then we can list films that earned what they deserved.
I don’t actually think audiences have gotten any more irrational, but I do think that the larger discrepancy between the box office of the far fewer real hits and the rest of Hollywood’s output is highlighting that irrationality.
I’d still bet on Deadpool & Wolverine, Despicable Me 4, and PROBABLY Inside Out 2 as sure hits. Other than that, who knows? Even low-budget horror is struggling mightily in 2024. Anyone who says they know for sure what’s happening at the box office is probably pushing an agenda.
This is not new. That’s why blockbusters historically were not reliable Oscar contenders.
I think it’s a lot simpler: going to the movies used to be an afterthought as far as expenses go. Now it’s a big commitment of money. More theaters sell food, so your kids or your date expect food, which is a relatively new thing. It’s $50 for a couple just getting large popcorn & drinks, let alone a meal. So people are more picky about which movies to see in the theater.
I think it’s a lot simpler: going to the movies used to be an afterthought as far as expenses go. Now it’s a big commitment of money. More theaters sell food, so your kids or your date expect food, which is a relatively new thing. It’s $50 for a couple just getting large popcorn & drinks, let alone a meal. So people are more picky about which movies to see in the theater.
I think you may have misinterpreted the tone of the Deadline article. The way I read the report, that wasn't meant to be a positive "July is the new May" spin, but rather a bleak "theaters won't see old-fashioned summer blockbuster numbers until July" forecast of despair.Deadline’s box office updates read like ministry of propaganda reports. Couple days ago they said “some people” now think the summer season begins at the end of July with Deadpool 3’s opening. You can’t make this stuff up. Pretty obvious there’s concern the industry won’t rebound after this year. Plenty of reasons why but bottom line is moviegoing is becoming more of a niche activity, which means less money.
How is that different from HBO, SHO, etc? Other than the on demand aspect, which they all now have.Once people suddenly got THOUSANDS of movies available "for free" with a subscription
Given the Deadline’s commitment to spin, I took it as lowering expectations for the next month, the Deadpool cavalry is on the way to save the day kinda thing. Guess they’ll decide what they meant after Apes opens.I think you may have misinterpreted the tone of the Deadline article. The way I read the report, that wasn't meant to be a positive "July is the new May" spin, but rather a bleak "theaters won't see old-fashioned summer blockbuster numbers until July" forecast of despair.
How is that different from HBO, SHO, etc? Other than the on demand aspect, which they all now have.
It’s all the same, just repackaged with new delivery systems.
I think it's simply that streaming has devalued the theatrical experience for many. Once people suddenly got THOUSANDS of movies available "for free" with a subscription, it made both going to the theater and renting a film feel too much. The short 45 day theatrical windows helped condition audiences to "wait for streaming."
Of course, studios are FINALLY realizing that streaming isn't nearly as profitable and you can't really justify spending $200 million on a movie that's meant to go straight to streaming. Initially, it was worth streamers spending a fortune on expensive shows as they were trying to lure more people to the service. But now most streaming services have kind of maxed out on the amount of people they can get to join, so all they are trying to do now is retain subscribers.
I think audiences will suffer from the streaming pivot in the long run. They want lavish, $200+ million movies but they don't want to pay for them. Eventually the movies they claim to want to see will stop being made.
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