Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Also notice how you again ignored the rest of what I said about the reasons why laws are being written, legal challenges in court are proceeding, and discussions around limiting AIs use are happening right now, ie most of humanity doesn't agree with you.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I read two of those articles. But they were the usual pablum written by some 27 year old Communications major who thinks technology will stand still while the Officially Good People get organized to stop it.

Spoiler Alert: Technology won't stand still and wait for humans to legislate it out of existence. Technology will prevail, and if they invent something that can replace a stenographer and a memorandum that is far cheaper and faster even if your kindly human stenographer gets fired, technology will prevail. Same thing with voice actors, and actors in general.

But sure, go ahead, pretend that this one time they'll prevent costlier human skill being replaced by cheaper new technology.

Next up, you wanna try doing Taxicab drivers being replaced by Uber drivers being replaced by Waymo robots?

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I read two of those articles. But they were the usual pablum written by some 27 year old Communications major who thinks technology will stand still while the Officially Good People get organized to stop it.

Spoiler Alert: Technology won't stand still and wait for humans to legislate it out of existence. Technology will prevail, and if they invent something that can replace a stenographer and a memorandum that is far cheaper and faster even if your kindly human stenographer gets fired, technology will prevail. Same thing with voice actors, and actors in general.

But sure, go ahead, pretend that this one time they'll prevent costlier human skill being replaced by cheaper new technology.

Next up, you wanna try doing Taxicab drivers being replaced by Uber drivers being replaced by Waymo robots?

LMAO. Its funny that you're still using that same example of emails replacing stenographers as some proof of the inevitability AI replacing actors. As if that's an actual equivalent comparison. Not realizing that many of those same stenographers just turned into administrative assistants that would end up typing up the emails for the same executives. Or not realizing that stenography is still used today in courts across not only this country but many across the world via the court reporter, so not even a lost skill. And something that isn't likely to change anytime soon.

You know very little about AI, you've read a few articles and heard an automated announcement at an airport. I work with this technology, and have a fairly good grasp on where its heading in the near future. So I don't have to pretend anything regarding this topic.

And that "technology will prevail" line, that is the start of almost every technological dystopian novel or movie. So yeah I'm sure humanity would stand for that without much of a fight.

I'm pretty sure this topic has run its course. So let's wait and see what happens in the next 1, 5, 10 years and see if AI replaces either voice actors or just actors in general in some meaningful way.

Oh and I just took a regular taxi last night. So yeah they haven't been replaced completely, yet another industry that you're wrong about technology completely replacing.

 

[Phroobar]

Just to add: the local theater today was playing Shrek 2, Alien, The Mummy, The Matrix, and Spirited Away. Five throwback titles, but four of which are IP. Plus they’re showing sequels to Kung Fu Panda, Ghostbusters, Godzilla/Kong, and Dune.

It’s not a question of if but when.

This Friday Star Wars Episode 1 The Phantom Menace 25th anniversary is being re-released. Some theaters are showing a marathon of all nine movies for May the Fourth. I've got my tickets.

 

[_caleb]

“I think that the two-hour format, the structure that goes into making a movie, it’s over a century old now and everything always transitions,” he added. “So, there is something happening again and that form is repetitive. But it’s hard to reinvent that form and I think this next generation is looking for ways to tell their own stories that service their own sort of collective ADHD.”

‘Avengers’ Directors Say Marvel’s Recent Problems Aren’t Due to Superhero Fatigue but a ‘Big Generational Divide About How You Consume Media’

"Avengers" directors Joe and Anthony Russo say recent Marvel flops are not because of superhero fatigue but due to a "generational divide."

variety.com

 

[Disney Irish]

“I think that the two-hour format, the structure that goes into making a movie, it’s over a century old now and everything always transitions,” he added. “So, there is something happening again and that form is repetitive. But it’s hard to reinvent that form and I think this next generation is looking for ways to tell their own stories that service their own sort of collective ADHD.”

‘Avengers’ Directors Say Marvel’s Recent Problems Aren’t Due to Superhero Fatigue but a ‘Big Generational Divide About How You Consume Media’

"Avengers" directors Joe and Anthony Russo say recent Marvel flops are not because of superhero fatigue but due to a "generational divide."

variety.com

I don't know if that is the cause of all of Marvel's issues, but do agree that is part of it as has been discussed here and other threads many times now.

 

[TP2000]

Box Office data for The First Omen has now been updated with the overseas numbers for it's 4th weekend in theaters. The First Omen is now beginning to exit theaters with a current loss of $22 Million globally. On its current global box office trajectory, a month from now it should lose about $20 Million, give or take, for Disney's 20th Century Studios.

It's not an auspicious way to start Disney's 2024 at the global box office, after what happened to them in 2023.

The First Omen: Production $30, Marketing $15, Domestic $11, Overseas $12 = $22 Million Loss and counting

The First Omen (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of The First Omen (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Box Office data for The First Omen has now been updated with the overseas numbers for it's 4th weekend in theaters. The First Omen is now beginning to exit theaters with a current loss of $22 Million globally. On its current global box office trajectory, a month from now it should lose about $20 Million, give or take, for Disney's Searchlight Studios.

It's not an auspicious way to start Disney's 2024 at the global box office, after what happened to them in 2023.

The First Omen: Production $30, Marketing $15, Domestic $11, Overseas $12 = $22 Million Loss and counting

View attachment 782334

The First Omen (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of The First Omen (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

FYI, First Omen wasn't put out by Searchlight Studios, it was put out by 20th Century Studios, a small but important distinction. And even if its a loss, that is a smaller loss and more easily recovered post theatrical.

 

[TP2000]

FYI, First Omen wasn't put out by Searchlight Studios, it was put out by 20th Century Studios, a small but important distinction.

Fixed it! Thank you!

And even if its a loss, that is a smaller loss and more easily recovered post theatrical.

Disney is selling The First Omen pajama sets at Target?!?

 

[Miss Rori]

“I think that the two-hour format, the structure that goes into making a movie, it’s over a century old now and everything always transitions,” he added. “So, there is something happening again and that form is repetitive. But it’s hard to reinvent that form and I think this next generation is looking for ways to tell their own stories that service their own sort of collective ADHD.”

‘Avengers’ Directors Say Marvel’s Recent Problems Aren’t Due to Superhero Fatigue but a ‘Big Generational Divide About How You Consume Media’

"Avengers" directors Joe and Anthony Russo say recent Marvel flops are not because of superhero fatigue but due to a "generational divide."

variety.com

Over at Bluesky my fellow users are going to town on this, in particular referencing a famous Principal Skinner quote-turned-meme: "No, it's the children who are wrong."

 

[Disney Irish]

Fixed it! Thank you!

Welcome

Disney is selling The First Omen pajama sets at Target?!?

No, but there will be the digital release and such which can make up a bunch. I didn't say it was going to be "profitable" or if it was that it was going to make a huge profit. All I said was that with the smaller loss it can more easily recover post theatrically.

This movie while not profitable during theatrical shows that Disney can still make a smaller budget film. And given that the same guy who has headed Searchlight is now running Disney Studios (which includes Disney Live Action and 20th Century) I expect more modest budgets for many of Disney's movies going forward.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

No, but there will be the digital release and such which can make up a bunch. I didn't say it was going to be "profitable" or if it was that it was going to make a huge profit. All I said was that with the smaller loss it can more easily recover post theatrically.

This movie while not profitable during theatrical shows that Disney can still make a smaller budget film. And given that the same guy who has headed Searchlight is now running Disney Studios (which includes Disney Live Action and 20th Century) I expect more modest budgets for many of Disney's movies going forward.

I'd be curious what a smaller budgeted horror film generates in the home video market because we don't really get info beyond theatrical box office.

Kevin Smith makes smaller movies and he has said that the theatrical release was more of an advertisement for the home video release than an actual profit generator.

 

[TP2000]

Fact check: airplanes did not replace railroads.

Also, just exactly how was “your favorite secretary Marjorie” replaced by email and desktop printers????????? I started off in the entertainment industry as an ASSISTANT (not SECRETARY) to one of the most powerful theatre agents working at that time. She represented Arthur Miller, Kander & Ebb, and dozens of A list talent.

Email existed and so did desktop printers, and all the agents at that talent agency still needed assistants, or as you call them, secretaries. So something is ringing very, very false about your above story.

Well... Marjorie was a secretary at the University of Washington in the late 1970's when I was there as a consultant when they were trying to reform and update their Physical Plant department and its antiquated industrial supply infrastructure. She was assigned to me to assist, and she took dictation and answered phones and did the usual secretary things. Because... she was a secretary. But not the tarted up young type of secretary, rather the highly tenured and incredibly efficient older secretary. Since I was (and remain) a gay man, I didn't need a tartlet, I needed a good secretary. Marjorie fit the bill fabulously. It helped that she was smart and savvy and terribly funny. We used to laugh at the same things, and the same people, endlessly.

We got along famously.

But the skills Marjorie used in 1978 were no longer needed by 1995. Email had replaced memorandums. It was hard to find an IBM Selectric in any office by 1995. The Mimeograph machine down the hall was replaced by a printer on every middle manager's desk. And Windows 95, ironically invented by fellow Seattleite Bill Gates, could keep your schedule tighter than even Marjorie could.

I exchanged Christmas cards with her after her retirement in the early 80's, and she passed away in the 90's. There are no secretaries left at the University of Washington in the 2020's, just a few "Admin Assistants" but only for the very tip-top faculty in the Provost's office. All the others in middle management were replaced by technology during the Clinton years.

 

[brideck]

No, but there will be the digital release and such which can make up a bunch. I didn't say it was going to be "profitable" or if it was that it was going to make a huge profit. All I said was that with the smaller loss it can more easily recover post theatrically.

This movie while not profitable during theatrical shows that Disney can still make a smaller budget film. And given that the same guy who has headed Searchlight is now running Disney Studios (which includes Disney Live Action and 20th Century) I expect more modest budgets for many of Disney's movies going forward.

If there's any truth to the stories about this movie originally being pegged for a Hulu release, then they've actually made $8m (BO take - marketing costs) here that they wouldn't have otherwise, raising its profile in the process, and setting it up for a possible pVOD release. I don't think it's become the franchise starter they hoped it might, though, and horror movies (and really, anything that's not Dune or WB's latest Monarch movie) have really failed to find any sort of significant box office foothold in 2024.

 

[Miss Rori]

I don't think it's become the franchise starter they hoped it might, though, and horror movies (and really, anything that's not Dune or WB's latest Monarch movie) have really failed to find any sort of significant box office foothold in 2024.

Yeah, there's also been some modest, qualified - and genuinely promising - successes like Anyone But You, Bob Marley - One Love, and now Challengers, the kind of films that supposedly nobody would go to theaters to see anymore, but beyond that we're a long way from the pre-pandemic era where nine movies managed to post total grosses of $1 billion+ by the end of the year. (Though it seems like people are going to remember and appreciate something like Dune Part Two way more than the Aladdin remake or Captain Marvel.) There really is a general sense of franchise fatigue for stuff like the Marvel-associated movies, Ghostbusters, etc., and going into a summer and later holiday season where almost every wide release is some kind of extension of an IP that has either been overexposed or doesn't have that big an audience to begin with, this isn't promising. And the few quasi-original concepts like If or the Horizon - An American Saga duology haven't generated a lot of positive interest from what I can tell. It's going to be a rough year.

 

[Dranth]

Anyone who never got a chance to see Alien in the theaters should do so before it is gone. I think today is the last day, or at least it is around me. I finally managed to sneak out of work for a long lunch to see it and wasn't disappointed.

It is amazing how well it holds up even on the big screen.

 

[brideck]

Yeah, there's also been some modest, qualified - and genuinely promising - successes like Anyone But You, Bob Marley - One Love, and now Challengers, the kind of films that supposedly nobody would go to theaters to see anymore

I guess Challengers? I don't think it's on pace to do more than $40m-$45m domestic, though. That's obviously great for a Guadagnino picture, but not exactly great overall. It may have been #1 last weekend, but that was also one of the two worst total weekend takes so far in 2024.

There's no denying the other two, though. Man, the number of old white people I saw coming out for One Love on its opening day...

Having said all that, I can live in the kind of world where this kind of $30m-$50m release becomes the norm. Not sure the current movie theater model can, though.

 

[BuddyThomas]

I guess Challengers? I don't think it's on pace to do more than $40m-$45m domestic, though. It may have been #1 last weekend, but that was also one of the two worst weekend takes overall so far in 2024.

There's no denying the other two, though. Man, the number of old white people I saw coming out for One Love on its opening day...

I’m surprised by the Bob Marley movie. It got a bunch of pretty bad reviews.

The Fall Guy feels like it has the making of a big hit. Hopefully seeing it on Saturday.

 

[brideck]

The Fall Guy feels like it has the making of a big hit. Hopefully seeing it on Saturday.

I guess they're projecting a $30m-$40m opening for The Fall Guy, which would put it firmly in the ~$100m domestic camp. But with good word of mouth, it could definitely leg for more.

 

[Disney Irish]

Having said all that, I can live in the kind of world where this kind of $30m-$50m release becomes the norm. Not sure the current movie theater model can, though.

Its funny to think that it wasn't that long ago that everyone thought that if a movie didn't do $1B it was a failure. And now we're sort of in a period of reset where the box office is being reevaluated and $1B is no longer the threshold to cross.

Of the 54 movies that have crossed $1B 30 of them are Disney or Disney (Avatar/Spider-Man) adjacent and a majority of them happened in the decade between 2009-2019.

I've long said that we're not getting back to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon (if ever). And I don't see anything changing that opinion based on the current 2024-2026 release schedule.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Of the 54 movies that have crossed $1B 30 of them are Disney or Disney (Avatar/Spider-Man) adjacent and a majority of them happened in the decade between 2009-2019.

Shhhhhh. Don’t tell TP2000.