Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Box office estimates are out for the weekend, gang! Aside from the re-release of Alien, Disney's other movie in theaters dropped to 15th place. The First Omen pulled in $700,000 over the weekend and dropped 1,430 theaters.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for May 24, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of May 24, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

That's great. Just like a New Tomorrowland announcement, if new technology can be somehow forbidden and prevented from reducing costs, I will believe that one when I see it.

Just because one particular company that you want for a TL redo isn't going to get picked for sponsorship for obvious reasons doesn't mean a new TL isn't possible. Just like just because you think AI should replace actors in animated movies (or even movies in general) doesn't mean that can and should be only way to reduce costs.

As stated before the costs outweigh the benefit here, and it seems the vast majority of those here discussing the topic agree. As I imagine the vast majority of not only Hollywood but also the general public agree, hence why laws are being written, legal challenges in court are proceeding, and discussions around limiting AIs use are happening right now.

AI is a great tool and just like many technologies that came before it it that should be used to help humanity, not completely replace it.

 

[TP2000]

Just because one particular company that you want for a TL redo isn't going to get picked for sponsorship for obvious reasons doesn't mean a new TL isn't possible. Just like just because you think AI should replace actors in animated movies (or even movies in general) doesn't mean that can and should be only way to reduce costs.

I don't think actors should be replaced, any more so than I thought my favorite secretary Marjorie at UofW in the 1970's should have been replaced by email and desktop printers. Marjorie was an absolute workhorse and a very funny lady, and this thread made me remember her and I miss her! She's been up in the great Steno Pool in the sky for decades now.

I just think that human actors eventually will be replaced, at least to an extent by A.I. That's one of the ways the technology has been purposely developed in the first place; to realistically replicate voices and images of humans in media. That technology is not quite 100% there yet, but you can see how quickly it's coming at us. Like airplanes replacing railroads, it's inevitable.

As stated before the costs outweigh the benefit here, and it seems the vast majority of those here discussing the topic agree.

For the record, I think there's about a dozen of us here in this thread regularly. Maybe two dozen, tops?

It's not exactly a Gallup Poll of human opinion.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't think actors should be replaced, any more so than I thought my favorite secretary Marjorie at UofW in the 1970's should have been replaced by email and desktop printers. Marjorie was an absolute workhorse and a very funny lady, and this thread made me remember her and I miss her! She's been up in the great Steno Pool in the sky for decades now.

I just think that human actors eventually will be replaced, at least to an extent by A.I. That's one of the ways the technology has been purposely developed in the first place; to realistically replicate voices and images of humans in media. That technology is not quite 100% there yet, but you can see how quickly it's coming at us. Like airplanes replacing railroads, it's inevitable.

Will AI be used in Hollywood, yes 100% (I've already said the same numerous times now). And it already is in many ways such as background generation. But to completely replace actors nope.

Just like railroads still exist, even if being updated with newer technology. I can get on a train today in almost every country on this planet and travel around. So even though airplanes have been a more efficient mode of transportation for 60+ years it has not completely replaced train travel for humans or even shipping. Heck you even have been discussing (and dare I might say even positive about it being created) the new Brightline route being added between Las Vegas to LA. Why not push for more airline routes instead if its better? That's because you don't always completely replace one technology for another just because it might be more efficient or even cheaper.

For the record, I think there's about a dozen of us here in this thread regularly. Maybe two dozen, tops?

It's not exactly a Gallup Poll of human opinion.

No, but its a fairly good cross section of humanity we have here from all walks of life. Also notice how you again ignored the rest of what I said about the reasons why laws are being written, legal challenges in court are proceeding, and discussions around limiting AIs use are happening right now, ie most of humanity doesn't agree with you.

 

[TalkingHead]

Read online that the Alien re-release has a promo video at the start that spoils at least one of the deaths in the movie. Pretty dumb considering how sensitive people are to spoilers these days.

A re-release (or 4K restoration) of Planet of the Apes woulda made sense too.

 

[TalkingHead]

Disney's decision to re-release Alien this weekend fared much better than their Pixar ones, earning over $1.5 million the past 3 days.

The Mummy's 25th anniversary re-release also got over $1 million this weekend too.

Shrek 2's reissue is up to $3.3 million now.

Clearly, there is an apatite for these, just not Disney+ movies from the past few years.

A 30th anniversary IMAX/3D re-release of Lion King should have been an obvious choice for this summer or the fall before Mufasa's release.

Just to add: the local theater today was playing Shrek 2, Alien, The Mummy, The Matrix, and Spirited Away. Five throwback titles, but four of which are IP. Plus they’re showing sequels to Kung Fu Panda, Ghostbusters, Godzilla/Kong, and Dune.

It’s not a question of if but when.

 

[TP2000]

Also notice how you again ignored the rest of what I said about the reasons why laws are being written, legal challenges in court are proceeding, and discussions around limiting AIs use are happening right now, ie most of humanity doesn't agree with you.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I read two of those articles. But they were the usual pablum written by some 27 year old Communications major who thinks technology will stand still while the Officially Good People get organized to stop it.

Spoiler Alert: Technology won't stand still and wait for humans to legislate it out of existence. Technology will prevail, and if they invent something that can replace a stenographer and a memorandum that is far cheaper and faster even if your kindly human stenographer gets fired, technology will prevail. Same thing with voice actors, and actors in general.

But sure, go ahead, pretend that this one time they'll prevent costlier human skill being replaced by cheaper new technology.

Next up, you wanna try doing Taxicab drivers being replaced by Uber drivers being replaced by Waymo robots?

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I read two of those articles. But they were the usual pablum written by some 27 year old Communications major who thinks technology will stand still while the Officially Good People get organized to stop it.

Spoiler Alert: Technology won't stand still and wait for humans to legislate it out of existence. Technology will prevail, and if they invent something that can replace a stenographer and a memorandum that is far cheaper and faster even if your kindly human stenographer gets fired, technology will prevail. Same thing with voice actors, and actors in general.

But sure, go ahead, pretend that this one time they'll prevent costlier human skill being replaced by cheaper new technology.

Next up, you wanna try doing Taxicab drivers being replaced by Uber drivers being replaced by Waymo robots?

LMAO. Its funny that you're still using that same example of emails replacing stenographers as some proof of the inevitability AI replacing actors. As if that's an actual equivalent comparison. Not realizing that many of those same stenographers just turned into administrative assistants that would end up typing up the emails for the same executives. Or not realizing that stenography is still used today in courts across not only this country but many across the world via the court reporter, so not even a lost skill. And something that isn't likely to change anytime soon.

You know very little about AI, you've read a few articles and heard an automated announcement at an airport. I work with this technology, and have a fairly good grasp on where its heading in the near future. So I don't have to pretend anything regarding this topic.

And that "technology will prevail" line, that is the start of almost every technological dystopian novel or movie. So yeah I'm sure humanity would stand for that without much of a fight.

I'm pretty sure this topic has run its course. So let's wait and see what happens in the next 1, 5, 10 years and see if AI replaces either voice actors or just actors in general in some meaningful way.

Oh and I just took a regular taxi last night. So yeah they haven't been replaced completely, yet another industry that you're wrong about technology completely replacing.

 

[Phroobar]

Just to add: the local theater today was playing Shrek 2, Alien, The Mummy, The Matrix, and Spirited Away. Five throwback titles, but four of which are IP. Plus they’re showing sequels to Kung Fu Panda, Ghostbusters, Godzilla/Kong, and Dune.

It’s not a question of if but when.

This Friday Star Wars Episode 1 The Phantom Menace 25th anniversary is being re-released. Some theaters are showing a marathon of all nine movies for May the Fourth. I've got my tickets.

 

[_caleb]

“I think that the two-hour format, the structure that goes into making a movie, it’s over a century old now and everything always transitions,” he added. “So, there is something happening again and that form is repetitive. But it’s hard to reinvent that form and I think this next generation is looking for ways to tell their own stories that service their own sort of collective ADHD.”

‘Avengers’ Directors Say Marvel’s Recent Problems Aren’t Due to Superhero Fatigue but a ‘Big Generational Divide About How You Consume Media’

"Avengers" directors Joe and Anthony Russo say recent Marvel flops are not because of superhero fatigue but due to a "generational divide."

variety.com

 

[Disney Irish]

“I think that the two-hour format, the structure that goes into making a movie, it’s over a century old now and everything always transitions,” he added. “So, there is something happening again and that form is repetitive. But it’s hard to reinvent that form and I think this next generation is looking for ways to tell their own stories that service their own sort of collective ADHD.”

‘Avengers’ Directors Say Marvel’s Recent Problems Aren’t Due to Superhero Fatigue but a ‘Big Generational Divide About How You Consume Media’

"Avengers" directors Joe and Anthony Russo say recent Marvel flops are not because of superhero fatigue but due to a "generational divide."

variety.com

I don't know if that is the cause of all of Marvel's issues, but do agree that is part of it as has been discussed here and other threads many times now.

 

[TP2000]

Box Office data for The First Omen has now been updated with the overseas numbers for it's 4th weekend in theaters. The First Omen is now beginning to exit theaters with a current loss of $22 Million globally. On its current global box office trajectory, a month from now it should lose about $20 Million, give or take, for Disney's 20th Century Studios.

It's not an auspicious way to start Disney's 2024 at the global box office, after what happened to them in 2023.

The First Omen: Production $30, Marketing $15, Domestic $11, Overseas $12 = $22 Million Loss and counting

The First Omen (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of The First Omen (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Box Office data for The First Omen has now been updated with the overseas numbers for it's 4th weekend in theaters. The First Omen is now beginning to exit theaters with a current loss of $22 Million globally. On its current global box office trajectory, a month from now it should lose about $20 Million, give or take, for Disney's Searchlight Studios.

It's not an auspicious way to start Disney's 2024 at the global box office, after what happened to them in 2023.

The First Omen: Production $30, Marketing $15, Domestic $11, Overseas $12 = $22 Million Loss and counting

View attachment 782334

The First Omen (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of The First Omen (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

FYI, First Omen wasn't put out by Searchlight Studios, it was put out by 20th Century Studios, a small but important distinction. And even if its a loss, that is a smaller loss and more easily recovered post theatrical.

 

[TP2000]

FYI, First Omen wasn't put out by Searchlight Studios, it was put out by 20th Century Studios, a small but important distinction.

Fixed it! Thank you!

And even if its a loss, that is a smaller loss and more easily recovered post theatrical.

Disney is selling The First Omen pajama sets at Target?!?

 

[Miss Rori]

“I think that the two-hour format, the structure that goes into making a movie, it’s over a century old now and everything always transitions,” he added. “So, there is something happening again and that form is repetitive. But it’s hard to reinvent that form and I think this next generation is looking for ways to tell their own stories that service their own sort of collective ADHD.”

‘Avengers’ Directors Say Marvel’s Recent Problems Aren’t Due to Superhero Fatigue but a ‘Big Generational Divide About How You Consume Media’

"Avengers" directors Joe and Anthony Russo say recent Marvel flops are not because of superhero fatigue but due to a "generational divide."

variety.com

Over at Bluesky my fellow users are going to town on this, in particular referencing a famous Principal Skinner quote-turned-meme: "No, it's the children who are wrong."

 

[Disney Irish]

Fixed it! Thank you!

Welcome

Disney is selling The First Omen pajama sets at Target?!?

No, but there will be the digital release and such which can make up a bunch. I didn't say it was going to be "profitable" or if it was that it was going to make a huge profit. All I said was that with the smaller loss it can more easily recover post theatrically.

This movie while not profitable during theatrical shows that Disney can still make a smaller budget film. And given that the same guy who has headed Searchlight is now running Disney Studios (which includes Disney Live Action and 20th Century) I expect more modest budgets for many of Disney's movies going forward.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

No, but there will be the digital release and such which can make up a bunch. I didn't say it was going to be "profitable" or if it was that it was going to make a huge profit. All I said was that with the smaller loss it can more easily recover post theatrically.

This movie while not profitable during theatrical shows that Disney can still make a smaller budget film. And given that the same guy who has headed Searchlight is now running Disney Studios (which includes Disney Live Action and 20th Century) I expect more modest budgets for many of Disney's movies going forward.

I'd be curious what a smaller budgeted horror film generates in the home video market because we don't really get info beyond theatrical box office.

Kevin Smith makes smaller movies and he has said that the theatrical release was more of an advertisement for the home video release than an actual profit generator.

 

[TP2000]

Fact check: airplanes did not replace railroads.

Also, just exactly how was “your favorite secretary Marjorie” replaced by email and desktop printers????????? I started off in the entertainment industry as an ASSISTANT (not SECRETARY) to one of the most powerful theatre agents working at that time. She represented Arthur Miller, Kander & Ebb, and dozens of A list talent.

Email existed and so did desktop printers, and all the agents at that talent agency still needed assistants, or as you call them, secretaries. So something is ringing very, very false about your above story.

Well... Marjorie was a secretary at the University of Washington in the late 1970's when I was there as a consultant when they were trying to reform and update their Physical Plant department and its antiquated industrial supply infrastructure. She was assigned to me to assist, and she took dictation and answered phones and did the usual secretary things. Because... she was a secretary. But not the tarted up young type of secretary, rather the highly tenured and incredibly efficient older secretary. Since I was (and remain) a gay man, I didn't need a tartlet, I needed a good secretary. Marjorie fit the bill fabulously. It helped that she was smart and savvy and terribly funny. We used to laugh at the same things, and the same people, endlessly.

We got along famously.

But the skills Marjorie used in 1978 were no longer needed by 1995. Email had replaced memorandums. It was hard to find an IBM Selectric in any office by 1995. The Mimeograph machine down the hall was replaced by a printer on every middle manager's desk. And Windows 95, ironically invented by fellow Seattleite Bill Gates, could keep your schedule tighter than even Marjorie could.

I exchanged Christmas cards with her after her retirement in the early 80's, and she passed away in the 90's. There are no secretaries left at the University of Washington in the 2020's, just a few "Admin Assistants" but only for the very tip-top faculty in the Provost's office. All the others in middle management were replaced by technology during the Clinton years.

 

[brideck]

No, but there will be the digital release and such which can make up a bunch. I didn't say it was going to be "profitable" or if it was that it was going to make a huge profit. All I said was that with the smaller loss it can more easily recover post theatrically.

This movie while not profitable during theatrical shows that Disney can still make a smaller budget film. And given that the same guy who has headed Searchlight is now running Disney Studios (which includes Disney Live Action and 20th Century) I expect more modest budgets for many of Disney's movies going forward.

If there's any truth to the stories about this movie originally being pegged for a Hulu release, then they've actually made $8m (BO take - marketing costs) here that they wouldn't have otherwise, raising its profile in the process, and setting it up for a possible pVOD release. I don't think it's become the franchise starter they hoped it might, though, and horror movies (and really, anything that's not Dune or WB's latest Monarch movie) have really failed to find any sort of significant box office foothold in 2024.

 

[Miss Rori]

I don't think it's become the franchise starter they hoped it might, though, and horror movies (and really, anything that's not Dune or WB's latest Monarch movie) have really failed to find any sort of significant box office foothold in 2024.

Yeah, there's also been some modest, qualified - and genuinely promising - successes like Anyone But You, Bob Marley - One Love, and now Challengers, the kind of films that supposedly nobody would go to theaters to see anymore, but beyond that we're a long way from the pre-pandemic era where nine movies managed to post total grosses of $1 billion+ by the end of the year. (Though it seems like people are going to remember and appreciate something like Dune Part Two way more than the Aladdin remake or Captain Marvel.) There really is a general sense of franchise fatigue for stuff like the Marvel-associated movies, Ghostbusters, etc., and going into a summer and later holiday season where almost every wide release is some kind of extension of an IP that has either been overexposed or doesn't have that big an audience to begin with, this isn't promising. And the few quasi-original concepts like If or the Horizon - An American Saga duology haven't generated a lot of positive interest from what I can tell. It's going to be a rough year.