Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
Uh, gang...? I'm confused. Why is this a thing? Disney re-released The Abyss via their 20th Century Studios division on Thursday? And it beat Wish easily even though it only showed in 590 theaters while Wish still has 3,900 theaters? o_O

Why is a 35 year old movie about a sea monster (Or something? I'm not sure.) being re-released midway between Thanksgiving and Christmas? And why is it outperforming the recent mega-budget $200 Million tentpole film from Walt Disney Animation?

This is weird. I'd love it if someone here more adept than I am at Hollywood culture and tactics could explain this for us...

Wednesday, December 6th, 2023 Domestic Box Office
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The Abyss is a great movie. Oh look, its free on streaming.

I was thinking about this the other day, they SHOULD re release old movies. The only criteria is they must be great movies like the Abyss.
 
Phroobar

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
Heppenheimer said:
I don't know what it costs to make a movie (or what it should cost) but the audience simply isn't there (for the most part) anymore for the kinds of films Disney puts out that cost $200-300 million to make and 1-2x as much again to market.
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I think the audience isn't there for ANY kind of movie Disney puts out.

Personally I'm a lot more excited when I see the Universal Earth title than the Disney Castle. I'm really considering dropping Disney+ for Peacock. Then again I like classic Monsters movies.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Thank you all for the information on The Abyss. I never saw it in theaters and had only a vague recollection that it was a "sea monster" movie from the late 80's, but that's not entirely accurate. An interesting tactic to restore it to 4K and put it in theaters before selling the Blu-Ray of it!

Box Office is out for Thursday, and it shows where this weekend will likely end up. Wish falls down to 9th (Ninth!) place for its third weekend in theaters. Brutal and humiliating, especially because it's still in the most theaters nationwide at 3,900! o_O

Weekend Preview.jpg
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
BrianLo said:
I can step in.

Deadline is not projecting profit based on pure theatrical take, I think that is where you are getting mislead. That's what the rule of thumb is helpful for (a theatrical snapshot), but it's not a good barometer of actual movie profitability.

In fact the percentage take they estimated is right in the article (47.7%). The numbers have to be pulled. They are claiming 560M at the box office would generate 267M of revenue (267/560=47.7). I think that might be a little low from the actual final take. This analysis was written early in the run and it skewed even more domestic heavy than expected.



What a formula needs to include is budget and marketing against theatrical rentals, pay, streaming rights, D+ co-financing and home entertainment. Sometimes film production tax incentives, which are also not always well accounted for in the headline budget number.

The reason we don't have a formula for that, is because everything but budget and box office is often nebulous. Though these budgets are made with a certain expectancy for post-theatrical window financing.

If you want a better rule, I'd say if a movie only makes a <1.5x theatrical multiplier of its budget (just budget, not marketing), its eventual profitability is in question.
-1x definitely is never going to be profitable, unless something strange converts it to a cult classic.
-2x is more clear for within the year post-theatrical profitability.
-3x is going to be profitable in the theatrical window itself.
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Thank you! :) That all makes far more sense than the assumption that The Little Mermaid was somehow getting 70% of the ticket revenue globally and thus only needed $560 Million box office to break even.

Going forward, and for our end of year recap purposes here in a few weeks, I'm going to continue to use the 60% of domestic box office and 40% of overseas box office that other industry sources use to determine studio take of box office.

The Little Mermaid is unusual in that Disney bragged that they were spending $140 Million on its marketing, so we know the marketing budget for it. Otherwise, it would be safer to assume they spent $100 to $125 Million on marketing, more in line with other tentpoles that get half the production budget for marketing.

Although some industry sources are claiming Disney spent $287 Million on its production, it seems prudent to use the more conservative production estimate of $250 Million for determining Mermaid's box office profitability, or lack thereof.
 
C

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Phroobar said:
I think the audience isn't there for ANY kind of movie Disney puts out.

Personally I'm a lot more excited when I see the Universal Earth title than the Disney Castle. I'm really considering dropping Disney+ for Peacock. Then again I like classic Monsters movies.
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I don't think you will regret it. Have fun with things like Twisted Metal too.
 
Tha Realest

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Tony the Tigger

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
Phroobar said:
I think the audience isn't there for ANY kind of movie Disney puts out.

Personally I'm a lot more excited when I see the Universal Earth title than the Disney Castle. I'm really considering dropping Disney+ for Peacock. Then again I like classic Monsters movies.
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I have never cared and rarely noticed which studio is making a film.
 
LittleBuford

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Tony the Tigger said:
I have never cared and rarely noticed which studio is making a film.
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A large part of the equation is that people generally do know when a film falls under the Disney umbrella. That’s why the company is getting so much flack in relation to other studios, whose “agenda” is pretty much the same as Disney’s but whose brand isn’t sufficiently entrenched in the public consciousness to become a comparable target of ideological ire.
 
erasure fan1

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Maybe this can shed some light on the box office percentage take debate.You can skip to 14:20 for some good insight on some of what we've been talking about.

While it's not confirming an exact percentage, Matts example of profitability for his film was
Budget+marketing than multiply by 2
for the number you need to profit. I wonder if there's anyone on the boards who's been using that same approximation? 🤔
Maybe Matts just not reputable enough, who knows?
 
T

TsWade2

Well-Known Member
I’ve found this video from OrangeGrove55 and think what he said about between Wish and the Box Office might make sense: If that is the case, then maybe it’ll do better on Disney+ and it’ll become a cult classic like Encanto.😉
 
C

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Phroobar said:
I enjoyed that show. It was stupid fun. I could have done without the constant swearing though.
I also enjoyed Chucky the series.
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I agree. Chucky had the swearing problem for me too. It evened out eventually but it felt a little too shock. I guess it is what the character has become. Twisted Metal confirmed for second season. I love the variety in films Peacock has. Peacock and Max are where most of my attention go.
 
C

celluloid

Well-Known Member
TsWade2 said:
I’ve found this video from OrangeGrove55 and think what he said about between Wish and the Box Office might make sense: If that is the case, then maybe it’ll do better on Disney+ and it’ll become a cult classic like Encanto.😉
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It depends on if 2024 is the great churn for Disney Plus. The concept of losing money on streaming services is to take a hit on profit and to build brand affinity. The last two years have done anything but that for the company.
 

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