Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Trauma]

He’s right I was looking to rankle (mission: accomplished…heck of a job, Brownie!!)

But the source of my mischief was he and a couple of decorated excuse makers were talking about “Hallee” back in May…

As if they were her agent…uncle…demented stalker…or all of the above?

Where does that get off? I find THAT abusive…
Don’t act like you have “more right” in your opinions by feigning personal privilege…
…and that’s what that trick was about.

Well whatever is going on flew over my head. ( no surprise )

I don’t understand the obsession with Mermaid making money. Even if it did ( it didn’t ) it only made a few million.

If you are trying to find the box office win for Disney last year, point to Guardians.

It’s almost like there is more going on than meets the eye.

Hmmm..

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well whatever is going on flew over my head. ( no surprise )

I don’t understand the obsession with Mermaid making money. Even if it did ( it didn’t ) it only made a few million.

If you are trying to find the box office win for Disney last year point to Guardians.

It’s almost like there is more going on than meets the eye.

Hmmm..

…exactly…

Almost like trying to make a point beyond the actual substance

Cynical and disingenuous.

 

[Casper Gutman]

He’s right I was looking to rankle (mission: accomplished…heck of a job, Brownie!!)

But the source of my mischief was he and a couple of decorated excuse makers were talking about “Hallee” back in May…

As if they were her agent…uncle…demented stalker…or all of the above?

Where does that get off? I find THAT abusive…
Don’t act like you have “more right” in your opinions by feigning personal privilege…
…and that’s what that trick was about.

What are you even talking about here?

I think you're upset that some folks called you out on your disgusting comments a few months back? If so, its common decency, not point scoring.

 

[celluloid]

Hey one of the top performing movies this week, and top choice for Americans today was Godzilla Minus one
Ya know, one of the heaviest allegory movie concepts featuring a heavy subject matter, IP that has been butchered and oversaturated and entirely subbed and no dubbed option with plenty of people seeing a movie that stars people who do not look like the majority here. It was written and crafted very well. Quality will out was never only for the mustached man's company.
You do have to make good things for that to occur though.
Packed theater tonight in the mountain time zone good ole boy type city.
Son and I like most that have seen it, enjoyed it very much.

 

[TP2000]

Uh, gang...? I'm confused. Why is this a thing? Disney re-released The Abyss via their 20th Century Studios division on Thursday? And it beat Wish easily even though it only showed in 590 theaters while Wish still has 3,900 theaters?

Why is a 35 year old movie about a sea monster (Or something? I'm not sure.) being re-released midway between Thanksgiving and Christmas? And why is it outperforming the recent mega-budget $200 Million tentpole film from Walt Disney Animation?

This is weird. I'd love it if someone here more adept than I am at Hollywood culture and tactics could explain this for us...

Wednesday, December 6th, 2023 Domestic Box Office

 

[BrianLo]

That was the article I first responded to. And they do not calculate for theater take. Forbes has the budget at 300mil. I'm just asking that if my formula is wrong, what formula should we be using?

I can step in.

Deadline is not projecting profit based on pure theatrical take, I think that is where you are getting mislead. That's what the rule of thumb is helpful for (a theatrical snapshot), but it's not a good barometer of actual movie profitability.

In fact the percentage take they estimated is right in the article (47.7%). The numbers have to be pulled. They are claiming 560M at the box office would generate 267M of revenue (267/560=47.7). I think that might be a little low from the actual final take. This analysis was written early in the run and it skewed even more domestic heavy than expected.

In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office (meaning a net profit of $71M before participations and residuals are accounted for), we’re told that Little Mermaid‘s global film revenues would amount to $547M against its combined production, global theatrical and home entertainment marketing expenses of $476M. The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in global home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international TV and streaming.

What a formula needs to include is budget and marketing against theatrical rentals, pay, streaming rights, D+ co-financing and home entertainment. Sometimes film production tax incentives, which are also not always well accounted for in the headline budget number.

The reason we don't have a formula for that, is because everything but budget and box office is often nebulous. Though these budgets are made with a certain expectancy for post-theatrical window financing.

If you want a better rule, I'd say if a movie only makes a <1.5x theatrical multiplier of its budget (just budget, not marketing), its eventual profitability is in question.
-1x definitely is never going to be profitable, unless something strange converts it to a cult classic.
-2x is more clear for within the year post-theatrical profitability.
-3x is going to be profitable in the theatrical window itself.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

They lost money on every movie this year but guardians 3…
Which felt like the LAST of the high point MCU movies as badlands was played

The point is that a lot of people are making proclamations like Disney should reduce their film budgets by a certain amount, without knowing what is actually realistic.

 

[erasure fan1]

What a formula needs to include is budget and marketing against theatrical rentals, pay, streaming rights, D+ co-financing and home entertainment. Sometimes film production tax incentives, which are also not always well accounted for in the headline budget number.

That all makes sense and is something we have talked about. The problem is we have been talking about the theatrical window. I never said mermaid wouldn't end up making a profit eventually. I've said in the past that I can't really account for the post theatrical stuff like streaming or merchandising... What we can get, is a fairly accurate snapshot of profitability in that theatrical window. So I'm not really seeing anything to show that the film was profitable in the context of what was being said and talked about. Does that tell the whole story? No, never said it did. But it is a good basis of compassion from film to film and studio to studio.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The point is that a lot of people are making proclamations like Disney should reduce their film budgets by a certain amount, without knowing what is actually realistic.

I think budget control would help…but that’s gonna be near impossible to pull off. Especially post strikes.

But they’re making bad movies…directives…bad research…horrible story groups…all of it…

…it ain’t working

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Uh, gang...? I'm confused. Why is this a thing? Disney re-released The Abyss via their 20th Century Studios division on Thursday? And it beat Wish easily even though it only showed in 590 theaters while Wish still has 3,900 theaters?

Why is a 35 year old movie about a sea monster (Or something? I'm not sure.) being re-released midway between Thanksgiving and Christmas? And why is it outperforming the recent mega-budget $200 Million tentpole film from Walt Disney Animation?

This is weird. I'd love it if someone here more adept than I am at Hollywood culture and tactics could explain this for us...

Wednesday, December 6th, 2023 Domestic Box Office
View attachment 758050

Even if you don’t like him…James Cameron is meticulous and puts full effort into all his pictures

People appreciate that now more than ever

And for techie wonks…ilm did ridiculous cutting edge computer work there…one of the most significant movies ever made

 

[erasure fan1]

The point is that a lot of people are making proclamations like Disney should reduce their film budgets by a certain amount, without knowing what is actually realistic.

Well we do know that their budgets are too high. As far as what's realistic? Well isn't that the point of a discussion forum? To talk about that kind of stuff? Should an avengers movie cost $250mil to $300mil? Probably. But should antman be $200+ mil? Absolutely not in my opinion.

 

[Phroobar]

I'll have to go see the Abyss in theaters. It's fun to see an old movie back in the theater. I'd rather see an old movie than the stuff released today. Heck I think Nightmare before Christmas made more on rerelease than Wish.

 

[Tha Realest]

I'll have to go see the Abyss in theaters. It's fun to see an old movie back in the theater. I'd rather see an old movie than the stuff released today. Heck I think Nightmare before Christmas made more on rerelease than Wish.

I’m so old I *did* see The Abyss in theaters.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m so old I *did* see The Abyss in theaters.

I did too…after I walked three miles to school both ways in the snow…with no shoes

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Well we do know that their budgets are too high. As far as what's realistic? Well isn't that the point of a discussion forum? To talk about that kind of stuff? Should an avengers movie cost $250mil to $300mil? Probably. But should antman be $200+ mil? Absolutely not in my opinion.

Sure, but people are throwing out numbers and making conclusions despite not having any real knowledge of what it costs to make a movie, keep a studio running, etc.

It's easy to say, just cut the budget for a movie by half, but ignores the fact that a movie has to do more than cover direct production costs. It also has to contribute to the operating budget of the studio facilities as a whole.

When some studios (Disney) include that element in their budgets, and others don't, it's not realistic for any of us to definitively say how much Disney could realistically reduce their budgets by.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

10 years ago Disney did a 3D conversion of Little Mermaid that was intended for theatrical exhibition like the ones done for Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, but it only ever got released on a 3D Blu-ray disc that's long out of print.

I think it's a perfect candidate for release next year. Say it's for the 35th anniversary if you want to. There's no new Disney proper animated release next year, so they might as well put out one of their more popular titles in a way most people haven't seen before that they can't on streaming.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

10 years ago Disney did a 3D conversion of Little Mermaid that was intended for theatrical exhibition like the ones done for Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, but it only ever got released on a 3D Blu-ray disc that's long out of print.

I think it's a perfect candidate for release next year. Say it's for the 35th anniversary if you want to. There's no new Disney proper animated release next year, so they might as well put out one of their more popular titles in a way most people haven't seen before that they can't on streaming.

I can think of a couple of reasons why they shouldn’t go there

 

[Sharon&Susan]

Uh, gang...? I'm confused. Why is this a thing? Disney re-released The Abyss via their 20th Century Studios division on Thursday? And it beat Wish easily even though it only showed in 590 theaters while Wish still has 3,900 theaters?

Why is a 35 year old movie about a sea monster (Or something? I'm not sure.) being re-released midway between Thanksgiving and Christmas? And why is it outperforming the recent mega-budget $200 Million tentpole film from Walt Disney Animation?

This is weird. I'd love it if someone here more adept than I am at Hollywood culture and tactics could explain this for us...

Wednesday, December 6th, 2023 Domestic Box Office
View attachment 758050

James Cameron procrastinated approving a new HD/4k master for like 20 years on The Abyss and True Lies and now they're trying to make an event out of it now that he finally did.

 

[erasure fan1]

Sure, but people are throwing out numbers and making conclusions despite not having any real knowledge of what it costs to make a movie, keep a studio running, etc.

I'm right there with you. It's known that Disney budgets run higher, on everything. We have basic comparisons between similar projects and studios. And for the record this isn't a Disney only issue. So while I can't really say what exact SOP changes they need to make, we can speculate. That's supposed to be the fun of it.

It also has to contribute to the operating budget of the studio facilities as a whole.

When some studios (Disney) include that element in their budgets, and others don't, it's not realistic for any of us to definitively say how much Disney could realistically reduce their budgets by.

I'm no Hollywood executive but maybe they need to change how they structure a budget then? Perception is something that's been really hurting them. A film comes out, has a budget of $220mil, and then has a weak opening. It's then jumped on in the media as underperforming, going to lose money, could be a big loss for the company!... That gets in peoples minds and can be a factor for them to wait or go to the theater. It's a self fulfilling prophecy as they say.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Sure, but people are throwing out numbers and making conclusions despite not having any real knowledge of what it costs to make a movie, keep a studio running, etc.

It's easy to say, just cut the budget for a movie by half, but ignores the fact that a movie has to do more than cover direct production costs. It also has to contribute to the operating budget of the studio facilities as a whole.

When some studios (Disney) include that element in their budgets, and others don't, it's not realistic for any of us to definitively say how much Disney could realistically reduce their budgets by.

I don't know what it costs to make a movie (or what it should cost) but the audience simply isn't there (for the most part) anymore for the kinds of films Disney puts out that cost $200-300 million to make and 1-2x as much again to market.