Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

Guardians is probably the gauge for a high estimate (as 3 matched Guardians 2) with Black Panther probably being the gauge for a low estimate (since 2 only did about 60% of the first).

Unless this is the first Marvel movie to unforeseeably tank the Marvels should make between $650 million and $1.1 billion.

Ant Man 3 tanked. Whether that was unforeseeable depends on your perspective.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Originally I thought Marvels would disappoint. Now, with lack of much competition, I think it will do just fine.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Ant Man 3 tanked. Whether that was unforeseeable depends on your perspective.

Ant Man has had fairly consistent box office results, the first movie had a box office of $519 million, the 2nd $622 million, and the 3rd $476 million.

The 3rd movie made 92% of the first, that's a pretty decent result in post covid times with most movies struggling to find an audience.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ant Man has had fairly consistent box office results, the first movie had a box office of $519 million, the 2nd $622 million, and the 3rd $476 million.

The 3rd movie made 92% of the first, that's a pretty decent result in post covid times with most movies struggling to find an audience.

It’s a loss…and losses are absolutely NOT ok…

So let’s not restart that wheel

 

[WaltsTreasureChest]

Ant Man has had fairly consistent box office results, the first movie had a box office of $519 million, the 2nd $622 million, and the 3rd $476 million.

The 3rd movie made 92% of the first, that's a pretty decent result in post covid times with most movies struggling to find an audience.

It tanked bro. It tanked.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Ya know, I was always adamantly, outspokenly against the idea that being critical of Disney meant you weren’t a fan. After all, we’re often most critical of what we love, and wanting to see bad choices punished to encourage better ones is entirely consistent with wanting to see something improve.

But…

There really are folks here who want to see Disney fail just to see it fail, to hurt people they hate and make them feel better about themselves. And they post over… and over… and over… largely to irritate those not willing to distort the truth to condemn Disney across the board. That’s not fandom or affection of any sort. It’s just trolling.

 

[Chi84]

Ya know, I was always adamantly, outspokenly against the idea that being critical of Disney meant you weren’t a fan. After all, we’re often most critical of what we love, and wanting to see bad choices punished to encourage better ones is entirely consistent with wanting to see something improve.

But…

There really are folks here who want to see Disney fail just to see it fail, to hurt people they hate and make them feel better about themselves. And they post over… and over… and over… largely to irritate those not willing to distort the truth to condemn Disney across the board. That’s not fandom or affection of any sort. It’s just trolling.

It is. And when it’s the same poster doing it over and over again, the solution is to ignore rather than engage.

It seems more people are doing this now - which is probably why certain posters get so few “reactions” and end up talking to themselves or a few others like them.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ya know, I was always adamantly, outspokenly against the idea that being critical of Disney meant you weren’t a fan. After all, we’re often most critical of what we love, and wanting to see bad choices punished to encourage better ones is entirely consistent with wanting to see something improve.

But…

There really are folks here who want to see Disney fail just to see it fail, to hurt people they hate and make them feel better about themselves. And they post over… and over… and over… largely to irritate those not willing to distort the truth to condemn Disney across the board. That’s not fandom or affection of any sort. It’s just trolling.

It is. And when it’s the same poster doing it over and over again, the solution is to ignore rather than engage.

It seems more people are doing this now - which is probably why certain posters get so few “reactions” and end up talking to themselves or a few others like them.

95% of the time, the calls for “failure” are fans looking for better and hoping “failure” leads to positive change.

It’s not too hard to interpret. But when it’s only about “tone” and not substance…i can see how that would be frustrating

 

[Casper Gutman]

It is. And when it’s the same poster doing it over and over again, the solution is to ignore rather than engage.

It seems more people are doing this now - which is probably why certain posters get so few “reactions” and end up talking to themselves or a few others like them.

This is true to some extent, but there are a couple problems with it. The first is that there are interesting and meaningful issues to discuss regarding Disneys box office performance and overall film output, but they get drowned out by the trolling. The second is that when large portions of a social media site are yielded to trolls of a particular type, they multiply. This is a great board because it’s full of intelligent, deeply informed, often critical conversation by knowledgeable posters. Recent events have spurred a desire in certain posters to see Disney hurt, not to encourage improvement, but to create pain in enemies. And when that viewpoint takes over entire sections of the board without very significant pushback, it can rot a great site from the inside out.

 

[Chi84]

This is true to some extent, but there are a couple problems with it. The first is that there are interesting and meaningful issues to discuss regarding Disneys box office performance and overall film output, but they get drowned out by the trolling. The second is that when large portions of a social media site are yielded to trolls of a particular type, they multiply. This is a great board because it’s full of intelligent, deeply informed, often critical conversation by knowledgeable posters. Recent events have spurred a desire in certain posters to see Disney hurt, not to encourage improvement, but to create pain in enemies. And when that viewpoint takes over entire sections of the board without very significant pushback, it can rot a great site from the inside out.

I wasn’t suggesting to ignore anyone engaging in meaningful, articulate discussion. The posters who either aren’t interested or are incapable of that are fairly easy to identify. No loss in not engaging with them.

 

[LittleBuford]

I wasn’t suggesting to ignore anyone engaging in meaningful, articulate discussion. The posters who either aren’t interested or are incapable of that are fairly easy to identify. No loss in not engaging with them.

I need to print this and stick it on my wall.

 

[TP2000]

Sorry for the delay gang, I've been doing some traveling. But here's the belated Box Office stats from this past weekend, with A Haunting In Venice dropping to 3rd place in its second weekend out. Haunting is closely mirroring the box office performance of Death On The Nile domestically and overseas right now.

But at that rate, even with the reduced $60 Million production budget it got after Death On The Nile's poor performance, A Haunting In Venice is on a current trajectory to lose about $25 Million for 20th Century Studios.

 

[TP2000]

Yeah except that number is bonkers because it doesn’t include marketing.

That UK grant helps…but probably takes a $650 break even number down to $550

I’m sure TP will be along to splain it with math soon

Sorry, I missed this last week.

I've always hated math, so I'm second-guessing life choices now that I'm apparently the Box Office Math Guy here.

If the British taxpayers gave Disney a $55 Million gift check (that's 45 Million Pounds Sterling), and that gift from the taxpayers brought Disney's production spend on The Marvels down to $220, here's how those financials will need to work to get The Marvels to break even at the box office. This assumes a similar global demographic draw as Guardians 3, where 42% of the box office came from the USA and 58% of the box office came from overseas.

$220 Production, $100 Marketing = Break Even at $256 Million Domestic B.O. & $384 Million Overseas B.O.

As a point of reference, here's what the last three Marvels mega-budget tentpoles did at the box office. The Marvels really needs to not be an Ant-Man or else it will lose Disney a hundred Million or more.

It should also be noted that The Marvels really needs to have a very strong overseas box office draw, just like the previous Marvel movies all have had where 50% to 60% of their total box office comes from overseas and not multiplexes in the American suburbs.

 

[TP2000]

Tonight on a typically horrible United Airlines flight to San Diego, I learned via the seatback screen that this weekend's upcoming move The Creator is actually from 20th Century Studios. That means it's a Disney movie!

I don't remember us discussing that a month or so ago when we tallied the remaining films from Disney studios during 2023. But there it is. It's a Sci Fi film that deals with AI, as if ripped from today's strike headlines. And they got it down to a budget of only $80 Million, which is apparently what Burbank considers "cheap" now.

So we'll be able to track that one too, beginning this weekend. Who's going to see The Creator this weekend?

 

[Disney Irish]

Tonight on a typically horrible United Airlines flight to San Diego, I learned via the seatback screen that this weekend's upcoming move The Creator is actually from 20th Century Studios. That means it's a Disney movie!

I don't remember us discussing that a month or so ago when we tallied the remaining films from Disney studios during 2023. But there it is. It's a Sci Fi film that deals with AI, as if ripped from today's strike headlines. And they got it down to a budget of only $80 Million, which is apparently what Burbank considers "cheap" now.

So we'll be able to track that one too, beginning this weekend. Who's going to see The Creator this weekend?

Its been mentioned a bunch of times in various threads, including this one when it was discussed about Disney's future releases last month which you even go in on and acknowledged it.

I even mentioned back when discussed in other threads how this movie's story was very timely given all the fears and discussions about AI.

I'll be seeing it this weekend.

 

[Indy_UK]

But at that rate, even with the reduced $60 Million production budget it got after Death On The Nile's poor performance, A Haunting In Venice is on a current trajectory to lose about $25 Million for 20th Century Studios.

Disney would probably call that a success these days won't they?

 

[tcool123]

Tonight on a typically horrible United Airlines flight to San Diego, I learned via the seatback screen that this weekend's upcoming move The Creator is actually from 20th Century Studios. That means it's a Disney movie!

I don't remember us discussing that a month or so ago when we tallied the remaining films from Disney studios during 2023. But there it is. It's a Sci Fi film that deals with AI, as if ripped from today's strike headlines. And they got it down to a budget of only $80 Million, which is apparently what Burbank considers "cheap" now.

So we'll be able to track that one too, beginning this weekend. Who's going to see The Creator this weekend?

I have my ticket booked to see it tomorrow at Disney Springs.

 

[Ghost93]

I'll see the Creator this weekend. We need to support original sci-fi if we don't want to get bombarded with sequels, prequels and remakes.

 

[DKampy]

Tonight on a typically horrible United Airlines flight to San Diego, I learned via the seatback screen that this weekend's upcoming move The Creator is actually from 20th Century Studios. That means it's a Disney movie!

I don't remember us discussing that a month or so ago when we tallied the remaining films from Disney studios during 2023. But there it is. It's a Sci Fi film that deals with AI, as if ripped from today's strike headlines. And they got it down to a budget of only $80 Million, which is apparently what Burbank considers "cheap" now.

So we'll be able to track that one too, beginning this weekend. Who's going to see The Creator this weekend?

As Irish mentioned the film has been reference several times… the film is getting some great reviews…I will be going and am looking forward to it… I am hoping word of mouth will build… or will the same people who complain about no original movies sit this one out too… because people always lament how it is always SOS for hollywood… when there is plenty of original content… just people do not search it out

 

[Disstevefan1]

Tonight on a typically horrible United Airlines flight to San Diego, I learned via the seatback screen that this weekend's upcoming move The Creator is actually from 20th Century Studios. That means it's a Disney movie!

I don't remember us discussing that a month or so ago when we tallied the remaining films from Disney studios during 2023. But there it is. It's a Sci Fi film that deals with AI, as if ripped from today's strike headlines. And they got it down to a budget of only $80 Million, which is apparently what Burbank considers "cheap" now.

So we'll be able to track that one too, beginning this weekend. Who's going to see The Creator this weekend?

Only 80M. Well it looks like 20th Century Studios knows how to make a movie without spending 200, 250, 300 Million like Disney does.

At 80M, this movie is guaranteed to make money from the box office alone.

Disney should learn how to make movies like 20th Century Studios does it.