Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Whatever the reason that Indy 5 "underperformed" (which is like calling the Titanic a "boating accident") I can not think why the people responsible for the creative impact and disastrous financial results of Indy 5 should be allowed to continue providing their services to The Walt Disney Company.

Disney is on track to lose at least $650 Million at the box office by the end of September. And Indy 5 and its horrifically bad box office performance is responsible for over one third of that loss.

Indy 5: $300 Production, $100 Marketing, Global Box Office $358, Box Office Take $177 = Disney Loss of $233 Million

Whatever the reason it "underperformed", the executives in charge of Indy 5 need to lose their jobs over that type of loss, in my opinion.

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There’s no mystery why the Lucasfilm - in particular - have struggled.

Because a certain studio has gone right after LFL’s core fandom - gen Xers - and tried to retrain them.

It’s not about scripts and aggregate reviews…it’s trying to beat the most notoriously cynical generation ever at their own game.

That strategy is DOA. Bob should fire himself.

For a bunch of reasons…but definitely this one

 

[AdventureHasAName]

There’s no mystery why the Lucas film - in particular - have struggled.

Because a certain studio has gone right after LFL’s core fandom - gen Xers - and tried to retrain them.

Well put. I find going to a Disney Lucasfilm movie to be like attending a re-education camp. It's almost like they are saying, "We can entertain you, or teach you why you are wrong, but not both. And we have chosen to teach you a lesson."

 

[TP2000]

Bob should fire himself.

For a bunch of reasons…but definitely this one

Agreed that Bob has to go. Again.

What is interesting is that weeks ago there was all sorts of outrage over some YouTube guy who posted data showing that Disney had lost hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office since 2022 after a growing list of flops from its flagship studios.

It turns out that YouTube guy was right; Disney is losing hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office in 2023 alone.

Depending on how fast Haunted Mansion shrivels up and dies in the next six weeks, that tally will be somewhere around $650 Million in losses.

And there's only two major movies left this year; The Marvels and Wish. What happens if those two do the same type of business as Ant Man and Elemental and thus lose a hundred million or so per movie? Disney will have lost around $850 Million American Dollars at the global box office in just one year.

So what's Disney got lined up next in 2024 to fix that?.... Snow White's Leadership Lessons with the Seven Magical Creatures.

 

[Disney Irish]

Agreed that Bob has to go. Again.

What is interesting is that weeks ago there was all sorts of outrage over some YouTube guy who posted data showing that Disney had lost hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office since 2022 after a growing list of flops from its flagship studios.

It turns out that YouTube guy was right; Disney is losing hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office in 2023 alone.

Depending on how fast Haunted Mansion shrivels up and dies in the next six weeks, that tally will be somewhere around $650 Million in losses.

And there's only two major movies left this year; The Marvels and Wish. What happens if those two do the same type of business as Ant Man and Elemental and thus lose a hundred million or so per movie? Disney will have lost around $850 Million American Dollars at the global box office in just one year.

So what's Disney got lined up next in 2024 to fix that?.... Snow White's Leadership Lessons with the Seven Magical Creatures.

I know you keep forgetting some of the other studios Disney has under its umbrella....

But I would put A Haunting in Venice in the potential major movie category for Disney, and it has a smaller budget to boot (I believe I've seen $70M).

If it performs like Death on the Nile, which brought in $352M on a $55M budget, it'll be a bright spot for Disney, and take a bit of the sting out of the other losses.

 

[Willmark]

Well put. I find going to a Disney Lucasfilm movie to be like attending a re-education camp. It's almost like they are saying, "We can entertain you, or teach you why you are wrong, but not both. And we have chosen to teach you a lesson."

Seriously.

A generation that largely raised itself is going to listen to some corporation?

Good luck, we were borderline feral as kids!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Well, so much for “go woke, go broke.” Barbie has out-“woked” Disney all the way to the pink bank. I’m actually interested to see it now.

The potential here is for friend groups looking to extend/regain their high coming back out for The Marvels. Girl power.

The first Captain Marvel was one I was least interested to see, yet ended up being one of the more enjoyable. I’ve seen the previews for the new one, it looks fun, and I intend to see it at the theater. The only other Marvel films I’ve seen in the theater were Iron Man 1, Guardians 1, and all 3 Ant-Man.

I see all the Haunting stuff - movies, TV, whatever.

Not much interest in Wish. Maybe D+

 

[TP2000]

I know you keep forgetting some of the other studios Disney has under its umbrella....

Is that Searchlight and 20th Century Studios? I already got The Boogeyman in there for 2023 under "Disney" stats, but I see now that 20th Century does have its next release this year on September 15th. We will definitely track it.

It also looks like 20th Century Studios has two more movies as well for '23; The Creator on 9/29 and The Bikeriders on 12/1.
Searchlight Pictures has three more movies coming in '23; Next Goal Wins on 11/17 and Magazine Dreams on 12/8.

Let's do this....I'll create separate tracking stats for Searchlight and 20th Century, the two smaller "indie" studios Disney also owns. So far in 2023 those two studios combined have lost $59 Million for Disney from their first 3 films of 2023.

20th Century Studios, 1 Movie: Production $35, Marketing $15, Global Box Office $82, Box Office Take $42 = $8 Million Loss

Searchlight Pictures, 2 Movies: Production $54, Marketing $15, Global Box Office $6, Box Office Take $3 = $51 Million Loss

 

[TP2000]

Well, so much for “go woke, go broke.” Barbie has out-“woked” Disney all the way to the pink bank. I’m actually interested to see it now.

Barbie is not "woke". Unless you are still in 1978 and are mad that your office manager is now wearing a dress.

Barbie is mainstream feminism ideals circa 1995-2020. But it's also funny as all heck. My sister and her two daughters in-law are going back tonight to see it again. The boys are staying in to play poker for dollars. Wish me luck, because I'm pretty sure one of my nephew's put himself through college being a card sharp.

 

[DKampy]

Is that Searchlight and 20th Century Studios? I already got The Boogeyman in there for 2023 under "Disney" stats, but I see now that 20th Century does have its next release this year on September 15th. We will definitely track it.

It also looks like 20th Century Studios has two more movies as well for '23; The Creator on 9/29 and The Bikeriders on 12/1.
Searchlight Pictures has three more movies coming in '23; Next Goal Wins on 11/17 and Magazine Dreams on 12/8.

Let's do this....I'll create separate tracking stats for Searchlight and 20th Century, the two smaller "indie" studios Disney also owns. So far in 2023 those two studios combined have lost $59 Million for Disney from their first 3 films of 2023.

20th Century Studios, 1 Movie: Production $35, Marketing $15, Global Box Office $82, Box Office Take $42 = $8 Million Loss

Searchlight Pictures, 2 Movies: Production $54, Marketing $15, Global Box Office $6, Box Office Take $3 = $51 Million Loss

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I would not call 20th century indie… Searchlight is the indie division of 20th century

 

[DKampy]

Barbie is not "woke". Unless you are still in 1978 and are mad that your office manager is now wearing a dress.

Barbie is mainstream feminism ideals circa 1995-2020. But it's also funny as all heck. My sister and her two daughters in-law are going back tonight to see it again. The boys are staying in to play poker for dollars. Wish me luck, because I'm pretty sure one of my nephew's put himself through college being a card sharp.

How do you define “woke” as I have seen some internet groups complain that Barbie is “Woke”… I wonder what is woke to youand why do people consider “woke” to be so evil

 

[TP2000]

Okay, so now that we've been able to determine the estimated losses for all of Disney's various studio divisions, including smaller Searchlight and 20th Century Studios, let's look at how those hundreds of millions of dollars in losses all added up per studio, shall we?

For those keeping score at home...

Walt Disney Animation: No 2023 Release Yet (Wish arrives November 22nd) = 0
Walt Disney Pictures: Little Mermaid, Haunted Mansion = $308 Million Loss (Haunted Mansion will reduce that loss by $25 Million or so)
Pixar: Elemental = $113 Million Loss
Marvel: Ant Man, Guardians 3 = $11 Million Loss
Lucas: Indy 5 = $233 Million Loss
Searchlight: Chevalier, Theater Camp = $56 Million Loss
20th Century: The Boogeyman = $8 Million Loss

2023 Disney Total As of August 2nd = $729 Million Loss

That $729 Million loss will decline slowly over the next six weeks as Haunted Mansion fades fast and the summer movies go away, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's still a loss just over $700 Million by the middle of September.

That leaves the four indie films being released this fall, plus the last two tentpoles of '23 with Wish and The Marvels being released for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Something tells me that by this December, the $700 Million company loss for 2023 is going to get a bit higher before we mercifully enter 2024.

 

[TP2000]

How do you define “woke” as I have seen some internet groups complain that Barbie is “Woke”… I wonder what is woke to youand why do people consider “woke” to be so evil

I don't think the wokesters are "evil", I find them to be rather entertaining actually. They can be fun to watch on their little TikTok videos and stuff they make that people then share to laugh at.

Woke seems the same as ultra-liberal to me; stuff like calling women "birthing people" or "chest-feeders", or mustached male CM's wearing a flouncy dress to work in Fantasyland. It's all gotten so ridiculous that it's just funny at this point.

Barbie is not an ultra-liberal movie, thus it is not woke. The themes of modern womanhood might have seemed ultra-liberal 60 years ago, or merely stylishly liberal 45 years ago. But it's now 2023. I found the themes of modern womanhood portrayed in Barbie to be very mainstream.

It was just Barbie's outfits from the 80's and 90's that have aged badly by 2023 standards, not her attitude toward the world.

 

[TP2000]

And what's the deal with Chevalier? Searchlight spent $46 Million on it apparently, but it only made $4 Million at the box office.

I have a vague recollection of seeing a commercial for it last winter, but I know nothing else about it. What a way to vaporize $50 Million.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Barbie is not "woke". Unless you are still in 1978 and are mad that your office manager is now wearing a dress.

Barbie is mainstream feminism ideals circa 1995-2020. But it's also funny as all heck. My sister and her two daughters in-law are going back tonight to see it again. The boys are staying in to play poker for dollars. Wish me luck, because I'm pretty sure one of my nephew's put himself through college being a card sharp.

Sorry - Barbie is 150% woke, and it's fantastic.

 

[BuddyThomas]

I don't think the wokesters are "evil", I find them to be rather entertaining actually. They can be fun to watch on their little TikTok videos and stuff they make that people then share to laugh at.

Woke seems the same as ultra-liberal to me; stuff like calling women "birthing people" or "chest-feeders", or mustached male CM's wearing a flouncy dress to work in Fantasyland. It's all gotten so ridiculous that it's just funny at this point.

Barbie is not an ultra-liberal movie, thus it is not woke. The themes of modern womanhood might have seemed ultra-liberal 60 years ago, or merely stylishly liberal 45 years ago. But it's now 2023. I found the themes of modern womanhood portrayed in Barbie to be very mainstream.

It was just Barbie's outfits from the 80's and 90's that have aged badly by 2023 standards, not her attitude toward the world.

Good lord.

 

[BrianLo]

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As of mid afternoon on August 3rd, the box office results for M:I are all in near alignment, with The Numbers capturing an extra million from the domestic US box office that Box Office Mojo hasn't captured yet.

The Numbers 8/3/23:

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Box Office Mojo 8/3/23:

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Wikipedia 8/3/23:

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You reported 693 million in your calculation though, not 451.

I need to go through some of this, some of the numbers just also don't seem to make sense to me. Barbie has a 150 million marketing budget for example and a 145 million production budget. You halved Warner's costs on that one (very otherwise excellent earner) alone.

'Barbie' reportedly had a $150 million marketing budget — more than the movie's actual budget

Variety reports that the "Barbie" marketing campaign, which ranged from pink burgers to real-life Barbie dreamhouses, is estimated to have cost $150 million.

www.insider.com

edit; Magic Mike Last Dance was a budget of 45 million not 7 - I think you are mistakeningly looking at the budget for the original Magic Mike.

 

[BrianLo]

I hate to provide fodder to pile on, but there's another medium sized film still this Fall from 20th century (86m production). It looks good though and is up my alley.

 

[wtyy21]

So what's Disney got lined up next in 2024 to fix that?.... Snow White's Leadership Lessons with the Seven Magical Creatures.

I think many moviegoers are more excited to watch Elio instead, especially since Snow White in live-action version may have fundamentally different plot than 1937, and it may scare someone who watched the original animated version of Disney's Snow White.

Oh, Elio had same release month as Snow White.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Thought the same thing and said to my wife afterwards that it felt more like a comedy out of the 1980's (circa "9 to 5"), especially the Will Ferrell "mens club" executive board bit.

Heck, it is so "not woke" that they have the only curse words in the movie shouted by a black woman because um...apparently black women are angry and cannot articulate their thoughts without profanity like everybody else? (It was an odd choice.)

I suppose you were in the restroom when America Ferrera delivered her lengthy monologue?

 

[tcool123]

I hate to provide fodder to pile on, but there's another medium sized film still this Fall from 20th century (86m production). It looks good though and is up my alley.

I've been seeing trailer for The Creator in front of a lot of the films recently such as Oppenheimer, MI7, Transformers, and Indiana Jones.

I think The Creator is in a unique position this Fall though. Originally it had stiff competition from Kraven the following weekend as both are action films, but now The Creator doesn't see another action/sci-fi film until the start of November with Dune 2. In addition, with the abandonment of Kraven from October it should mean that The Creator keeps its premium screens until Killers of the Blood Moon goes wide towards the end of October.

The question is how much competition will it have in theaters at that time, and if the trends we've seen so far this year then I would have to assume that the Equalizer 3 and Expend4bles will either flop or underperform expectations as we have seen drawn out action franchises do this year.

The Creator thus finds itself in a unique position filling in the niche as an original and fresh story with action and sci-fi elements which given the lack of competition should mean some solid legs for the film - assuming its good of course. Then again this year hasn't played out like many thought it would.