Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I've been seeing trailer for The Creator in front of a lot of the films recently such as Oppenheimer, MI7, Transformers, and Indiana Jones.

I think The Creator is in a unique position this Fall though. Originally it had stiff competition from Kraven the following weekend as both are action films, but now The Creator doesn't see another action/sci-fi film until the start of November with Dune 2. In addition, with the abandonment of Kraven from October it should mean that The Creator keeps its premium screens until Killers of the Blood Moon goes wide towards the end of October.

The question is how much competition will it have in theaters at that time, and if the trends we've seen so far this year then I would have to assume that the Equalizer 3 and Expend4bles will either flop or underperform expectations as we have seen drawn out action franchises do this year.

The Creator thus finds itself in a unique position filling in the niche as an original and fresh story with action and sci-fi elements which given the lack of competition should mean some solid legs for the film - assuming its good of course. Then again this year hasn't played out like many thought it would.

And it’s story is very relevant given the discussion and fears surrounding AI.

It potentially could end up being the sleeper hit of the fall.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I know you keep forgetting some of the other studios Disney has under its umbrella....

But I would put A Haunting in Venice in the potential major movie category for Disney, and it has a smaller budget to boot (I believe I've seen $70M).

If it performs like Death on the Nile, which brought in $352M on a $55M budget, it'll be a bright spot for Disney, and take a bit of the sting out of the other losses.

Haunting in Venice is kinda an odd play for them…I’ll be interesting to see if it gains traction. The quick hit horror genre has been a pretty good formula of late.

I actually think Disney should do an anniversary rerelease of nightmare before Christmas…that would provide some much needed elixir for their woes as well

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, so much for “go woke, go broke.” Barbie has out-“woked” Disney all the way to the pink bank. I’m actually interested to see it now.

The potential here is for friend groups looking to extend/regain their high coming back out for The Marvels. Girl power.

The first Captain Marvel was one I was least interested to see, yet ended up being one of the more enjoyable. I’ve seen the previews for the new one, it looks fun, and I intend to see it at the theater. The only other Marvel films I’ve seen in the theater were Iron Man 1, Guardians 1, and all 3 Ant-Man.

I see all the Haunting stuff - movies, TV, whatever.

Not much interest in Wish. Maybe D+

That “go woke, go broke” stuff can be dismissed out of hand…

Remember it’s designed to play on a Big fat ONE fake “news” outlet (as in legit faux news…where they lie to people to generate fear tactics just to get ad revenue. Disgusting)…to rile up the biggest pack of heathen regressives since McCarthyism…run by Australians who hate the United States except for the paper printed with dead presidents on it…

It’s already gotten an outsized level of play…which is typical of the times.

You can break the BO trend down more significantly: by attempting to “draw in” and expanded audience exploiting old material and characters - at the characters expense - they seem to be turning away 2 fans for every 1 they pull in. And the ones being turned away - frankly - have more money.

It’s a bad financial plan. Terrible in the wash…really.
So they are purging…quietly…the “brain trust” that came up with it. Except big shot - of course.

They put most of their eggs in that basket based on theory years ago. It’s now here and on a disaster kinda scale.

Not just Disney…but wow…they sure bet the farm on it.

Nobody can argue that expanding the appeal/net isn’t the right thing to do…but the approach is terrible.
You don’t use the old…you have to work hard to create the new to do it and then you get rich. But it’s financially more risky to do that and takes more time.

Then you have a big audience that can coalesce in due order.

Their impatience - it seems to me - has allowed the exploitive backwards mindset to portray every Disney title and move in the public like they’re “forcing” something controversial - like the 1619 project - down ma and pa’s throat behind the white picket fence.
Even if that isn’t the case…tribalism is strong and perception can be used to shout down reality.

 

[TP2000]

Sorry - Barbie is 150% woke, and it's fantastic.

If the term "woke" is the same as "ultra-liberal", then what year do you think it is that the women's rights concepts of Barbie Land aren't found in our current day Real World??? Do you think it is still 1974? Because, I hate to break it to you, women have gained their rightful place in leadership and any career path they choose decades ago.

It's not 1974, Maude went off the air almost 50 years ago, and having a woman be a Supreme Court justice or an airline pilot or a doctor or a construction worker or a Senator is not radical, ultra-liberal thinking. It's how the world has been for the past three or four decades.

Tell me what was "woke" about the movie Barbie in the year 2023? I'll wait...

 

[TP2000]

I need to go through some of this, some of the numbers just also don't seem to make sense to me. Barbie has a 150 million marketing budget for example and a 145 million production budget. You halved Warner's costs on that one (very otherwise excellent earner) alone.

I'm done with math for at least a day or two, so you can comb through all that stuff as much as you want. I'm over it for now.

The Numbers posts the Barbie budget at $100 Million, but if you'd like to give it a production budget of $145 Million and a marketing budget of $150 Million I am thrilled to oblige that and use those figures going forward.

Barbie will make well over a Billion dollars globally by the middle of August, and adding an extra $100 Million to its combined production/marketing budget for Warner Bros. won't make Disney's $700 Million loss any lower.

Honestly, let me know how I can help adjust/amend those figures and I'll be happy to do so for our tracking and discussion purposes here. But the Disney loss in 2023 will still be staggering.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If the term "woke" is the same as "ultra-liberal", then what year do you think it is that the women's rights concepts of Barbie Land aren't found in our current day Real World??? Do you think it is still 1974? Because, I hate to break it to you, women have gained their rightful place in leadership and any career path they choose decades ago.

It's not 1974, Maude went off the air almost 50 years ago, and having a woman be a Supreme Court justice or an airline pilot or a doctor or a construction worker or a Senator is not radical, ultra-liberal thinking. It's how the world has been for the past three or four decades.

Tell me what was "woke" about the movie Barbie in the year 2023? I'll wait...

Well Since there’s “numbers” to it…

Women still lag behind equally qualified/experienced male counterparts across the board in terms of wage and advancement progress.

Much closer than even 20 years ago…but we still fight the landed aristocracy tendencies that we inherited from the cave people 10,000 years ago

 

[TP2000]

Thought the same thing and said to my wife afterwards that it felt more like a comedy out of the 1980's (circa "9 to 5"), especially the Will Ferrell "mens club" executive board bit. In some ways, it plays on similar jokes/themes in "Anchorman" making fun of how women were treated in the 1970's (again, 50 years ago).

It was a comedy film.

There were a couple of key "villains" groups in the movie, played most notably by the Mattel executives and the city construction workers in that conservative backwater of oppression known as Santa Monica, California, were cartoonish in their presentation. Because no Mattel exec or construction worker in Santa Monica has actually been like that since at least 1975.

And again I have to note, Mattel approved this movie and helped create it. Can you imagine Disney execs having that same ability to laugh at themselves and allow Will Ferrel to portray them with great comedic goofery?

Because I can't. Disney can't laugh at itself now. Bob Iger and all his top execs are humorless and take themselves very seriously.

Even the "but not on the Supreme Court" joke was "1970's sitcom" funny as O'Connor was on the Court in 1981 and there have been a half dozen women justices already. That was a line that would have felt completely at home being said by Maude in 1978.

Exactly. This was slapstick comedy circa the Jimmy Carter era.

No one actually thinks that Mattel execs are buffoons, that Santa Monica construction workers sit around cat-calling surfer girls all day, or that a girl roller skating on the beach in LA would have her butt slapped randomly by some guy and then she would go to jail for it, or that Century City is a place run entirely by men who spot each other in the gym all day and tell their female assistants to be silent while men talk.

Heck, it is so "not woke" that they have the only curse words in the movie shouted by a black woman because um...apparently black women are angry and cannot articulate their thoughts without profanity like everybody else? (It was an odd choice)

I actually laughed out loud at that one. Not because of the swear word that was edited, and not because the President of Barbie Land said it, but because they bleeped it out with the official Mattel logo. See my comments above about Mattel having a corporate sense of humor that Disney and other big companies today now lack.

It's going to do $1B++ all around the world precisely because it is not woke, but straight ahead, silly, self-aware comedy.

That's exactly what it is. Mainstream, witty, charming, toe-tapping, colorful, pretty, laugh out loud funny, summer entertainment.

Warner's deserves every penny of that Billion Dollars Plus they're going to get from this hilarious and sparklingly charming movie.

 

[TP2000]

Well Since there’s “numbers” to it…

Women still lag behind equally qualified/experienced male counterparts across the board in terms of wage and advancement progress.

Much closer than even 20 years ago…but we still fight the landed aristocracy tendencies that we inherited from the cave people 10,000 years ago

I'm not saying the world is perfect in 2023 and we can all relax.

I'm just saying the world in 2023 is not like the world in 1974, which some folks here seem to think it still is. Because they think Barbie being a judge or a doctor or a jet pilot or a president is somehow radical "woke" thinking? It's Barbie, she's been all that for decades now.

Nor is the world in 2023 like the world in 1995, which was markedly better than the world in 1974, but still not as good as 2023.

Oh, look, Barbie is the pilot now, not just the stewardess. Because it's not 1974 any more. But she still comes with a hair brush.

 

[Disney Irish]

Haunting in Venice is kinda an odd play for them…I’ll be interesting to see if it gains traction. The quick hit horror genre has been a pretty good formula of late.

Except its not if you think about it and realize this is the third in the series of Agatha Christie based movies for 20th Century Studios.

I agree I think it might end up doing pretty well given its Halloween and horror themes.

I actually think Disney should do an anniversary rerelease of nightmare before Christmas…that would provide some much needed elixir for their woes as well

Funny you mention that, although not in theaters that I'm aware of, Disney is releasing a 30th Anniversary Blu-ray of NBC this month, available on the 22nd.

The Nightmare Before Christmas 4K Blu-ray Pre-Orders Are Up On Amazon

Tim Burton’s beloved The Nightmare Before Christmas is turning 30 this year, and Disney realized that they couldn’t get by with another lazy Blu-ray upgrade. It’s now or never for the 4K Blu-ray release, so here we are! The Nightmare Before Christmas will finally arrive on 4K Blu-ray / Digital...

comicbook.com

You can preorder it now on Amazon.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Funny you mention that, although not in theaters that I'm aware of, Disney is releasing a 30th Anniversary Blu-ray of NBC this month, available on the 22nd.

The Nightmare Before Christmas 4K Blu-ray Pre-Orders Are Up On Amazon

Tim Burton’s beloved The Nightmare Before Christmas is turning 30 this year, and Disney realized that they couldn’t get by with another lazy Blu-ray upgrade. It’s now or never for the 4K Blu-ray release, so here we are! The Nightmare Before Christmas will finally arrive on 4K Blu-ray / Digital...

comicbook.com

You can preorder it now on Amazon:

Amazon product ASIN B0C9JKSHC1

They’re doing a sizeable product push…not that they don’t always do that with that property

 

[Disney Irish]

They’re doing a sizeable product push…not that they don’t always do that with that property

Yep, NBC is the one of their golden cash cows that keeps on giving.

 

[wtyy21]

Funny you mention that, although not in theaters that I'm aware of, Disney is releasing a 30th Anniversary Blu-ray of NBC this month, available on the 22nd.

The Nightmare Before Christmas 4K Blu-ray Pre-Orders Are Up On Amazon

Tim Burton’s beloved The Nightmare Before Christmas is turning 30 this year, and Disney realized that they couldn’t get by with another lazy Blu-ray upgrade. It’s now or never for the 4K Blu-ray release, so here we are! The Nightmare Before Christmas will finally arrive on 4K Blu-ray / Digital...

comicbook.com

You can preorder it now on Amazon.

Disney should do same for Hocus Pocus, giving the fact that the film also celebrate 30th anniversary this year and was regarded as cult classic that played every year before or during the Halloween festivities.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney should do same for Hocus Pocus, giving the fact that the film also celebrate 30th anniversary this year and was regarded as cult classic that played every year before or during the Halloween festivities.

I know they did some 30th anniversary pins for HP, but not sure what else they did, though I sure there is other merch out there. And of course it does already have a big Parks presence just like NBC during Halloween events.

But they did green light a 3rd film this year after the success of the 2nd one on D+, so there is that.

 

[TP2000]

Except its not if you think about it and realize this is the third in the series of Agatha Christie based movies for 20th Century Studios.

I was let down notably by their last one, Death On The Nile. Even though it had French & Saunders in it, who can do no wrong in my eyes.

But as a huge fan of the Poirot TV series that played here on PBS in the 90's, that movie was a real let down. It was also notably trampy and trashy a few times for no good reason, which is something Agatha Christie never was in the past. So why try to start now?

If they're doing another one, I won't be rushing out to buy a ticket after being burned by Death On The Nile. I'll wait, and if it's getting raves I'll consider it. Otherwise... I'll probably just track it here as yet another money losing film for Disney in '23.

 

[Disney Irish]

Tell me what was "woke" about the movie Barbie in the year 2023? I'll wait...

Might want to ask that same question to some of your contemporaries such as Ben Shapiro. I won't link to his Youtube video here as I don't want to spread that kind of message, but you can find it yourself.

He basically claims in the 45 minute video that the message of the film is to tear down men and promote a new wave of feminism.

So its clearly touched a nerve with a certain ideological sect after it was discovered the plot of the film.

 

[Disney Irish]

I was let down notably by their last one, Death On The Nile. Even though it had French & Saunders in it, who can do no wrong in my eyes.

But as a huge fan of the Poirot TV series that played here on PBS in the 90's, that movie was a real let down. It was also notably trampy and trashy a few times for no good reason, which is something Agatha Christie never was in the past. So why try to start now?

If they're doing another one, I won't be rushing out to buy a ticket after being burned by Death On The Nile. I'll wait, and if it's getting raves I'll consider it. Otherwise... I'll probably just track it here as yet another money losing film for Disney in '23.

Death on the Nile had its issues, namely in the form of Armie Hammer, and the very limited marketing (only 18M as I recall being reported) budget.

A Haunting in Venice appears to have a great cast and is being marketed really well, at least as I can tell. So hopefully given the themes of the film and the time its being released it'll do rather well in theaters.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yep, NBC is the one of their golden cash cows that keeps on giving.

…yep

Only made because they had a couple creatives at the top that allowed Burton to develop it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney should do same for Hocus Pocus, giving the fact that the film also celebrate 30th anniversary this year and was regarded as cult classic that played every year before or during the Halloween festivities.

I think they messed up releasing HP2 onto stream last year

A year early and not in the right place

But when you have a “can’t lose” streaming service…you gotta burn all bridges and shunt everything on it to keep it afloat

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Might want to ask that same question to some of your contemporaries such as Ben Shapiro. I won't link to his Youtube video here as I don't want to spread that kind of message, but you can find it yourself.

He basically claims in the 45 minute video that the message of the film is to tear down men and promote a new wave of feminism.

So its clearly touched a nerve with a certain ideological sect after it was discovered the plot of the film.

Ben Shapiro is an abject loser/A-Clown

The prosecution rests

 

[Disney Irish]

Ben Shapiro is an abject loser/A-Clown

You get no argument from me on that.

He is however a popular mouth piece for the ideologues who chant the “go woke go broke” mantra.

So as I said it’s clearly hit a nerve.