Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Agent H]

I'll let @BrianLo speak for himself, but the idea is that TP and others constantly overestimate the marketing during the theatrical. So the correction comes in that form, lower the marketing used to being what is typically used during theatrical and it would be consistent across all the discussions win or lose.

Also you keep harping on this "failures aren't failures" thing as if that is what is being said by some (I assume you lump me in that group). No one is saying a movie isn't a failure DURING theatrical, its clear more than a few over the last couple years have fell in that territory, though there is debate among a couple movies that you claim are failures but aren't really but I'll let that go for now. What is being said is the OVERALL if you count ALL monies made during the life of a movie it wouldn't be considered a failure in that sense, that they pretty much all do turn a profit with rare exceptions.

And before you get on the rant of "Disney expects xyz at the box office, they don't expect to lose money", I'd like to point out as @coffeefan rightfully posted, right from Disney's FY24 earnings report right at the top of page 6 -

"The Company incurs significant marketing and advertising costs before and throughout the theatrical release of a film in
an effort to generate public awareness of the film, to increase the public’s intent to view the film and to help generate consumer interest in the subsequent home entertainment and other ancillary markets. These costs are expensed as incurred, which may result in a loss on a film in the theatrical markets, including in periods prior to the theatrical release of the film"

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2025/01/2024-Annual-Report.pdf

So its clear that Disney not only is ok with a movie losing money during theatrical, they almost expect it. And that they do in order to promote the movie for a post-theatrical market. Now obviously they'd like to minimize those losses as much as possible, but if they lose money they are set to absorb that in their post-theatrical earnings on a movie. This is a new world of the post-pandemic box office my friend. This isn't the 70s, 80, 90s, or even 00s anymore. You have to stop thinking the box office is the end all be all for a movies earning potential, its just the start not the end. And what you consider a "failure" is in reality not a failure to Disney, its a future earner post-theatrical. This is what several of us have been trying to tell you and others for years now.

Awesome post. This should settle this once and for all.

 

[Chi84]

Awesome post. This should settle this once and for all.

Not if it isn’t read.

 

[Phroobar]

The new Final Destination reception(both with critics and audiences)is the most surprising in 2025 to me

It always felt like it had more of niche audience and after the first one it was less predictable…you understood the template… this is one of the best wide releases reviewed movies of the year…. None of the other are even in fresh territory… including the first one…. Perhaps nostalgia really does get more beloved with age

I don't think it is surprising considering how well both new Scream movies did. I think the reboot "I know what you did last summer" will do well too.

 

[BrianLo]

What were you “correcting”?

The exact same thing I’m doing now. The profit estimates and break even points. Click on my post, it’s directly correcting TP. About inside out 2.

and again…nobody questions them on the successful movies

You are quoting evidence to the contrary…

When you say nobody, what you really mean is yourself.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The exact same thing I’m doing now. The profit estimates and break even points. Click on my post, it’s directly correcting TP. About inside out 2.



You are quoting evidence to the contrary…

When you say nobody, what you really mean is yourself.

There’s only “disagreement” when we got a fish out of water to deal with

A frequent occurrnce these days

 

[Baloo124]

Just realized there's never been a sequel or remake of the 2002 martial arts masterpiece:
Kung Pow! Enter The Fist.

If that classic didn't touch you emotionally one way or another, you're only lying to yourself.

 

[TP2000]

Alrighty gang, the Numbers are in for this weekend's box office. Thunderbolts dropped 49% and now sits at $325 Million globally (only estimates for both domestic and overseas, final tally in tomorrow). It does not have strong legs and does not seem to be on a trajectory to break even at around $450 Million globally. Maybe $400 to $415 Million globally and a loss of around $50 Million for Burbank?

Oh, and here's two more Burbank movies that are still clinging to a few theaters in the USA...

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for May 16, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of May 16, 2025

the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Just planning to ignore my request?

There was a request? I didn't catch it. I was probably skimming again.

The movies in question are The Marvels, Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion, and Wish. The numbers that you flog differ from reported reality by... well, by a lot. Which is the whole point in this most recent conversation around formulas.

Oh, that's the request? Suddenly it's 2023! I'm assuming you'll post figures from Deadline that show The Marvels and Haunted Mansion brought it untold Millions and wealth to Burbank's coffers from all that Disney+ profit? Okay, I'll bite...

Just to keep this fun, here's the exact numbers I posted here in this thread on the afternoon of January 1st, 2024 (only slightly hungover by that time) after I'd watched the Rose Parade and had my B Vitamin-dense recovery brunch.

Okay, gang, have we all recovered from last night? ....

The below was cut and pasted in 2025 from that New Year's 2024 post for brevity...

The Marvels: $220* Production/$100 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $46 Overseas = $223 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $158 Production/$75 Marketing, $41 Domestic, $19 Overseas = $173 Million Loss
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $37 Domestic, $47 Overseas = $216 Million Loss
Indiana Jones 5: $300 Production/$100 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $83 Overseas = $212 Million Loss

Shortly thereafter on January 1st, 2024 I posted all the 2023 movies number's compiled from The Numbers website, and in a spooky bit of prescience, the four movies you requested were lumped together in one of my screenshots....

View attachment 761222

Okay, now you go!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So marvel batting 0-2 this year

I mean…we knew this two weeks ago. But it didn’t top anyone from spinning themselves in circles to end up in the same place now…just a little dizzy

I’m going to stitch on Friday…doing my part

 

[TP2000]

So marvel batting 0-2 this year.

Apparently. Here's how that looks with Captain America 4 essentially done in theaters, and Thunderbolts fading quickly.

Captain America 4: $180 Production, $90 Marketing, $120 Domestic, $86 Overseas = $64 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: $180 Production, $90 Marketing, $93 Domestic, $68 Overseas = $109 Million Loss And Narrowing

Or, for our friends on the Metric system who like to use the blunter 2.5X formula...

Captain America 4 = $35 Million Loss
Thunderbolts = $125 Million Loss And Narrowing

.

 

[brideck]

I'm assuming you'll post figures from Deadline that show The Marvels and Haunted Mansion brought it untold Millions and wealth to Burbank's coffers from all that Disney+ profit?

Sadly, no. Deadline indicated that they lost a total of $628m on those four movies combined.

The Marvels: $220* Production/$100 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $46 Overseas = $223 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $158 Production/$75 Marketing, $41 Domestic, $19 Overseas = $173 Million Loss
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $37 Domestic, $47 Overseas = $216 Million Loss
Indiana Jones 5: $300 Production/$100 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $83 Overseas = $212 Million Loss

All right, so you're off by a total of $196m (~30%) on these four movies. The formula Brian Lo is urging you to use only missed by a total of $68m (~10%).

Okay, now you go!

I already went back in the post chain you're responding to, bro. And Brian went months before that.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sadly, no. Deadline indicated that they lost a total of $628m on those four movies combined.



All right, so you're off by a total of $196m (~30%) on these four movies. The formula Brian Lo is urging you to use only missed by a total of $68m (~10%).



I already went back in the post chain you're responding to, bro. And Brian went months before that.

Unfortunately for the 2 or 3 posters who constantly misrepresent the box office they'll never use a formula shown to be more accurate because they have a narrative to continue, for reasons. And they've pretty much already admitted to that. And that the only way there is nothing to "talk" about for them is for Disney movies to "over perform" in theaters so they have nothing to cling onto, because it'll be a clear "success" in their mind. Its clear they only value the box office, because anything else doesn't make sense to them, a very "old school" thought process, even though we've all discussed the paradigm shift that is currently happening.

 

[Chi84]

Unfortunately for the 2 or 3 posters who constantly misrepresent the box office they'll never use a formula shown to be more accurate because they have a narrative to continue, for reasons. And they've pretty much already admitted to that. And that the only way there is nothing to "talk" about for them is for Disney movies to "over perform" in theaters so they have nothing to cling onto, because it'll be a clear "success" in their mind. Its clear they only value the box office, because anything else doesn't make sense to them, a very "old school" thought process, even though we've all discussed the paradigm shift that is currently happening.

So nothing new then.

 

[DKampy]

Even if the bulk of promotion is prior it’s theater debut…it still creates awareness for the afterlife at the cinemas…..how many times have we seen people on this very site… I will wait to stream it…. In fact most studios would probably rather have people stream it at the $20.00 price point… they will get a bigger cut

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

I thought for sure Thunderbolts would pass CA4 box office. It still might, but will still end up being less of a hit than I thought. Oh well

 

[brideck]

I thought for sure Thunderbolts would pass CA4 box office. It still might, but will still end up being less of a hit than I thought. Oh well

It'll probably end up virtually identical to Cap 4, which puts both firmly in the wash category -- making nothing at the box office, which will likely be converted into slim profits once PVOD and streaming gains are added into the bottom line.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I thought for sure Thunderbolts would pass CA4 box office. It still might, but will still end up being less of a hit than I thought. Oh well

Why?

I thought it probably would…but with zero confidence…

The people love stars…not side characters and leftovers

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It'll probably end up virtually identical to Cap 4, which puts both firmly in the wash category -- making nothing at the box office, which will likely be converted into slim profits once PVOD and streaming gains are added into the bottom line.

The goal of MCU is to make money, set up sequels and crossovers and sell branded product and tie ins.

Not eek out a break even

I see it’s a Monday again

 

[brideck]

The goal of MCU is to make money, set up sequels and crossovers and sell branded product and tie ins.

Not eek out a break even

I see it’s a Monday again

So the problem here is that you're reading my calm statement of fact as an endorsement of the result.

It's not. I just don't feel the need to take a crap all over the thread because of it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So the problem here is that you're reading my calm statement of fact as an endorsement of the result.

It's not. I just don't feel the need to take a crap all over the thread because of it.

It’s more of a reminder to others not to move the wheels on the goalposts to make nice for daddy Bob

…and it will likely happen anyway

(If anyone is tired of hearing this…there’s an easy way to fix it)