Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Farerb]

Now is that her fault or is that a lack of JLaw and franchise fatigue? But I'm sure you'll blame her and not any of the other reasons.

But we'll be able to see next year when the next prequel comes out.

But I didn't blame her... She just wasn't enough to get people to be interested in the franchise again.

 

[Casper Gutman]

But I didn't blame her... She just wasn't enough to get people to be interested in the franchise again.

How have Lawrence’s recent films been doing? Passengers, Dark Pheonix, Mother!, and No Hard Feelings really proving that star power?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Tom can't even do it anymore, at least not like he use to. So that fading fast has already faded in my opinion.

There has been a pretty big drought of new stars, every “big” name draw I thought of was middle age or higher… Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Harrison Ford, Jim Carrey, Julia Robert’s, Angelina Jolie, Brad Pitt, Will Smith, Keanu Reaves, Sandra … all middle age or older.

The only young(er) stars that come to mind are Tom Holland, Zendaya, Chris Pratt, and Ryan Reynolds.

 

[Disney Irish]

But I didn't blame her... She just wasn't enough to get people to be interested in the franchise again.

This is a straw man argument. As she wasn't being used as the draw, she wasn't even top billing, she was second line on the call sheet.

The IP was being used as the draw and its clear that franchise has run it course.

 

[Disney Irish]

How have Lawrence’s recent films been doing? Passengers, Dark Pheonix, Mother!, and No Hard Feelings really proving that star power?

Yep, I love JLaw, but outside of Hunger Games she has been hit or miss at the box office.

 

[Casper Gutman]

There has been a pretty big drought of new stars, every “big” name draw I thought of was middle age or higher… Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Harrison Ford, Jim Carrey, Julia Robert’s, Angelina Jolie, Brad Pitt, Will Smith, Keanu Reaves, Sandra … all middle age or older.

The only young(er) stars that come to mind are Tom Holland, Zendaya, Chris Pratt, and Ryan Reynolds.

We’ve seen copious evidence that none of the people you named can open a film on their own.

 

[Disney Irish]

There has been a pretty big drought of new stars, every “big” name draw I thought of was middle age or higher… Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Harrison Ford, Jim Carrey, Julia Robert’s, Angelina Jolie, Brad Pitt, Will Smith, Keanu Reaves, Sandra … all middle age or older.

The only young(er) stars that come to mind are Tom Holland, Zendaya, Chris Pratt, and Ryan Reynolds.

Even then those three have been hit or miss too. Its only Spidey for Tom and Zendaya and Deadpool for Reynolds that have been hits. All their other films have either opened soft or outright bombed.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Yep, I love JLaw, but outside of Hunger Games she has been hit or miss at the box office.

If we’re honest, outside of Hunger Games and X-Men it’s been uniformly “miss” for over a decade.

 

[Disney Irish]

If we’re honest, outside of Hunger Games and X-Men it’s been uniformly “miss” for over a decade.

Yep, people here aren't realizing that its no longer stars that draw its the IP. Its the reason why original content fails fairly regularly and only franchises succeed. And people wonder why Iger and the rest of Hollywood keep pumping out sequels, prequels, reboots, refreshes, whatever term is the latest for continued IP use.

 

[doctornick]

There has been a pretty big drought of new stars, every “big” name draw I thought of was middle age or higher… Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Harrison Ford, Jim Carrey, Julia Robert’s, Angelina Jolie, Brad Pitt, Will Smith, Keanu Reaves, Sandra … all middle age or older.

The only young(er) stars that come to mind are Tom Holland, Zendaya, Chris Pratt, and Ryan Reynolds.

I'd add maybe Dwayne Johnson but he's not particularly young either

 

[Casper Gutman]

I'd add maybe Dwayne Johnson but he's not particularly young either

He REALLY can't open a movie anymore. He NEEDS Moana or he's on the way out of the A-list.

Seriously, none of the "stars" mentioned can open a movie. We've seen this again and again for over a decade! The "star system" as an organizing principle in Hollywood has been dead for 20 years or so. This isn't the 90s!

 

[TP2000]

Target actually has the movie based dolls on clearance already.

Ooh! I forgot to do my famously beloved and highly scientific Target Toy Aisle Check for this movie! And I've got a Target run to do this week, so maybe I should push that forward to this evening or tomorrow? I'm on it.

I think she’ll eventually get another chance but I’ll be surprised if we see her on the big screen again in the next 5 years, 2-3 years for public sentiment to change and then 2 years for her next movies filming, editing, etc.

Her box office record is heavily against her at this point, her talent gets praised in every movie but she simply doesn’t have box office pull.

Here's how that box office tally looks for her fledgling young career. She hasn't been in a truly profitable movie yet, and Snow White was arguably her most high profile movie, but she ruined it for herself with needless controversy and commentary. Her career thus far has vaporized over $400 Million in cash spread across several studios, including a low budget horror flick she starred in last year called Y2K (Who knew?!?).

Assuming Snow White eventually pulls in $300 Million globally, evenly split between the USA and foreigners....

Rachel Zegler Movies: Production $585, Marketing $251, Domestic $250, Overseas $178 = $408 Million Loss

 

[TP2000]

It’s very clear what that article is. A bunch of highly-paid Disney execs who made a series of bottomlessly stupid decisions about the movie are frantically trying to divert attention from their culpability by drawing a target on someone that a lot of people are already primed to hate. It’s utterly unforgivable behavior.

Or, you could go with the theory that the Variety article was simply what it appeared to be; a piece of journalism about an infamously bumbling young star who kept putting her studio, her co-stars, and her mega-budget movie in the crosshairs of scandal with her own repeated and purposely divisive (if not just catty) public statements.

Zegler is toxic. She will find work again but not on a film of this budget.

That or a career on Broadway, where they don’t mind her toxic behavior.

I'm hoping that when Miss Zegler heads back to Broadway, there's a Helen Lawson somewhere who can take her down a few notches in the ladies lounge one evening.

Just substitute the 1960's phrase "booze and dope" for 2020's "TikTok and Tweets".

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Saw this on the weekly box office article on Rotten Tomatoes:

"the only live-action film since 2000 to open in March with less than $50 million and gross over $150 million was Wild Hogs."

It's unlikely Snow White breaks from this trend and pulls a Mufasa like turnaround for all the reasons others have already mentioned. Lower CinemaScore, lower audience Post Trak and Tomatometer, not a holiday release etc

Even a strong strong hold like 3.5x its opening weekend would be just under $150 million domestically.

 

[Disney Irish]

a low budget horror flick she starred in last year called Y2K (Who knew?!?).

Those of us that actually follow movies knew, and it was discussed here in this very thread briefly last year.

I've actually also seen it (actually went to the theater for it and everything) and its pretty good. Its a campy 90s nostalgia filled horror/thriller/comedy. As someone who worked in IT during the Y2K panic it was a fun romp through the memories of the fears of the day.

 

[LittleBuford]

I don’t think the film’s failure can be attributed to either actress. I very much doubt it would be making much more at the box office if it had different leads.

 

[Ayla]

The X Games are still a thing. (Generally speaking, not in a DCA context.) A lot of those sports have found acceptance in one way or another in the Olympics because of the influence the X Games have had over the last 30 years.

Total aside, but one of my favorite X Games tie-ins is the PlayStation game that came out alongside the initial iteration (back when they were the Extreme Games). Then ESPN reporter Suzy Kolber has all of these hilarious in-game videos where she more or less mocks the player for being terrible at the game.

Yes, the X Games happen in multiple locations across the country every year...and have for like the last 25? 30? years.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I don’t think the film’s failure can be attributed to either actress. I very much it would be making much more at the box office if it had different leads.

A word got lost, I suspect it’s doubt so I will answer in kind.

Had they cast Zegler in BaTB and cast Emma Watson in SW I think the box office results would have been drastically different for both, I think BaTB would have still done more than SW (2017 was a different market and it’s a more popular movie) but I also suspect BaTB would have done about $300 million less and SW would have done about $300 million more purely on name recognition and actor likability. Despite the conversation about actors not drawing crowds anymore I think Emma Watson is a much bigger draw than Zegler and had a substantial impact on BaTB doing $1.3 billion.

 

[Ayla]

There has been a pretty big drought of new stars, every “big” name draw I thought of was middle age or higher… Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Harrison Ford, Jim Carrey, Julia Robert’s, Angelina Jolie, Brad Pitt, Will Smith, Keanu Reaves, Sandra … all middle age or older.

The only young(er) stars that come to mind are Tom Holland, Zendaya, Chris Pratt, and Ryan Reynolds.

Ryan Reynolds is only a year younger than Jolie. Pratt is in his mid 40's.

 

[LittleBuford]

A word got lost, I suspect it’s doubt so I will answer in kind.

Had they cast Zegler in BaTB and cast Emma Watson in SW I think the box office results would have been drastically different for both, I think BaTB would have still done more than SW (2017 was a different market and it’s a more popular movie) but I also suspect BaTB would have done about $300 million less and SW would have done about $300 million more purely on name recognition and actor likability. Despite the conversation about actors not drawing crowds anymore I think Emma Watson is a much bigger draw than Zegler and had a substantial impact on BaTB doing $1.3 billion.

Thanks for the catch; I added the missing word, which was indeed “doubt”.

I disagree that things would have played out that way in your theoretical scenario, but since we’re both talking about counterfactual situations, we’ll never know which of us is correct.