Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[LittleBuford]

I either use duckduckgo or if I don't want to switch to a different browser (I usually use chrome), I just put -ai at the end of any search query.

Thank you!

 

[MagicMouseFan]

The murmurs of it not having legs and not cracking 300m worldwide for its run have now become casual conversation... and the murmurs in the dark shadows have now become it could possibly not even make back its budget.

Shaping out to be the tsar bomba of bombs.

Not looking good now, if it doesn’t have legs it’s a disaster.
These type of movies usually have some legs though.

 

[Agent H]

Live action remakes operate on the same principle as reboots. What’s the substantive difference?

A remake tells the same story with a few added elements here and there. A reboot tells new stories with preexisting characters. Reboots also tend to ignore previous continuity for a fresh start.

 

[Willmark]

So after reading the commentary here and elsewhere in the web, it appears this approaching Wish or Strange World levels of movie bomb?

Next up is Thunderbolts, can it buck the trend? For my own part I’m only interested in FF this year.

 

[TalkingHead]

A remake tells the same story with a few added elements here and there. A reboot tells new stories with preexisting characters. Reboots also tend to ignore previous continuity for a fresh start.

Hard to believe anyone in 2025 would argue that Disney/Iger hasn’t made franchises and IP their business focus for the last 15 years but fans gonna fan I guess.

 

[TP2000]

So after reading the commentary here and elsewhere in the web, it appears this approaching Wish or Strange World levels of movie bomb?

At first I thought it doesn't seem to be that bad. Definitely not a Strange World level of mega-flop, and better than Wish (which I had forgotten how horrible it did after its coveted Thanksgiving release date).

But then I crunched the numbers, and only because I have a new bag of Stumptown coffee beans and I'm on my second cup. And it looks like, owing to Snow White's notably bigger budget than those other two, that by the end of its run two months from now it will likely have lost something right between Wish and Strange World.

This new box office perspective this morning deserves an Oof!

Strange World: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $24, Overseas $14 = $218 Million Loss
Wish: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $38, Overseas $71 = $191 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $250+, Marketing $100, Domestic $90???, Overseas $60??? = $200 Million Loss????

 

[Joel]

There are many "older" posters who remember the days of typewritten, double-spaced, onionskin theme papers. With footnotes. Many people considered a word processor with the capacity to back-space for corrections, and using cut, copy, and paste to reorient sentences and paragraphs, along with spellcheck and grammarly, a form of cheating.

Heck, I remember when we had to write our forum posts in cursive!

 

[TP2000]

Shaping out to be the tsar bomba of bombs.

From a financial standpoint, yes it is. Barring some unforeseen and massive turnaround in weeks two and three, of course.

Also, you get extra credit for using a 1960's Cold War analogy! We need more of that these days, if only to remind the young'uns how close we came a few times and what a massive win for humanity the collapse of the Soviet Union truly was.

 

[Willmark]

At first I thought it doesn't seem to be that bad. Definitely not a Strange World level of mega-flop, and better than Wish (which I had forgotten how horrible it did after its coveted Thanksgiving release date).

But then I crunched the numbers, and only because I have a new bag of Stumptown coffee beans and I'm on my second cup. And it looks like, owing to Snow White's notably bigger budget than those other two, that by the end of its run two months from now it will likely have lost something right between Wish and Strange World.

This new box office perspective this morning deserves an Oof!

View attachment 849614

Strange World: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $24, Overseas $14 = $218 Million Loss
Wish: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $38, Overseas $71 = $191 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $250+, Marketing $100, Domestic $90???, Overseas $60??? = $200 Million Loss????

I only noticed because I searched on biggest Disney busts and this came up:

https://collider.com/biggest-box-office-bombs-in-disney-history/

I’m guessing these are accurate numbers and if they are? Wow.

The noticeable thing is that for the biggest ones they are more recent (directionally.)

 

[Disney Irish]

At first I thought it doesn't seem to be that bad. Definitely not a Strange World level of mega-flop, and better than Wish (which I had forgotten how horrible it did after its coveted Thanksgiving release date).

But then I crunched the numbers, and only because I have a new bag of Stumptown coffee beans and I'm on my second cup. And it looks like, owing to Snow White's notably bigger budget than those other two, that by the end of its run two months from now it will likely have lost something right between Wish and Strange World.

This new box office perspective this morning deserves an Oof!

View attachment 849614

Strange World: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $24, Overseas $14 = $218 Million Loss
Wish: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $38, Overseas $71 = $191 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $250+, Marketing $100, Domestic $90???, Overseas $60??? = $200 Million Loss????

Given where things sit right now, I'm fairly confident that it'll at least do better than both of those. Maybe not much better, but it should do better.

It'll be interesting to watch to say the least.

 

[TP2000]

Given where things sit right now, I'm fairly confident that it'll at least do better than both of those. Maybe not much better, but it should do better.

It'll be interesting to watch to say the least.

From a gross receipts tally, Snow White should do better than Wish.

But to @Willmark's point, it's going to lose money right in line with Strange World and Wish; something around a $200 Million loss it looks like.

This is a great example of how Disney's bloated budgets north of $200 Million really create a steep hill for even successful movies to climb to merely breaking even at the box office. We still don't even know what the final budget tally was for Snow White, as the $269,400,000 figure comes from UK tax filings from late 2023. That was before Snow White was sent back for reworks and rewrites and delayed more than a year to March, 2025.

Until the final UK tax filings are released, I think we're being conservative in pegging the Snow White budget at $250 after the UK tax rebate check of $55+ Million. I wouldn't be surprised to learn later this year that the budget for Snow White swelled past $300 Million during 2024's reworking and it had a final post-rebate budget of $260 Million or more.

Again... Oof! Disney has to figure out a way to stop spending $200 Million or more on mediocre movies, much less flops.

 

[Trauma]

From a gross receipts tally, Snow White should do better than Wish.

But to @Willmark's point, it's going to lose money right in line with Strange World and Wish; something around a $200 Million loss it looks like.

This is a great example of how Disney's bloated budgets north of $200 Million really create a steep hill for even succesful movies to climb to profitability for Disney's flagship studios. We still don't even know what the final budget tally was for Snow White, as the $269,400,000 figure comes from UK tax filings from late 2023. That was before Snow White was sent back for reworks and rewrites and delayed more than a year to March, 2025.

Until the final UK tax filings are released, I think we're being conservative in pegging the Snow White budget at $250 after the UK tax rebate check of $55+ Million. I wouldn't be surprised to learn later this year that the budget for Snow White swelled past $300 during 2024's reworking and it had a final post-rebate budget of $260 Million or more.

Again... Oof! Disney has to figure out a way to stop spending $200 Million or more on mediocre movies, much less flops.

It’s amazing how much things change. My family and I use to go to every Disney movie. Didn’t bother looking at reviews, if it was Disney it was good enough for us.

Now the exact opposite is true.

If it’s Disney it’s a giant red flag.

It’s very very rare we go see anything by Disney.

I’m interested in Stitch but my wife needs to research it before she will green light going.

So maybe that will be our first Disney movie in awhile.

 

[TP2000]

It’s amazing how much things change. My family and I use to go to every Disney movie. Didn’t bother looking at reviews, if it was Disney it was good enough for us.

Now the exact opposite is true.

If it’s Disney it’s a giant red flag.

It’s very very rare we go see anything by Disney.

I’m interested in Stitch but my wife needs to research it before she will green light going.

So maybe that will be our first Disney movie in awhile.

Yes, that's part of what makes this thread so lively. We are really talking about a massive cultural shift for American families.

No longer can the phrase "Walt Disney's..." or even the more blandly corporate "Disney's..." give a stamp of instant approval for parents looking for trusted entertainment for their children and family together.

Burbank really shot themselves in the foot several times over the past 5 years, changing what their brand meant to consumers. My hope is that they can still rebuild their brand and get back to this tagline automatically meaning something for American parents, or whoever is buying a ticket to a Disney movie....

I'm optimistic it can be done. But they did this to themselves, and they've got a lot of work ahead of them to fix it.

 

[Disney Irish]

From a gross receipts tally, Snow White should do better than Wish.

But to @Willmark's point, it's going to lose money right in line with Strange World and Wish; something around a $200 Million loss it looks like.

This is a great example of how Disney's bloated budgets north of $200 Million really create a steep hill for even successful movies to climb to merely breaking even at the box office. We still don't even know what the final budget tally was for Snow White, as the $269,400,000 figure comes from UK tax filings from late 2023. That was before Snow White was sent back for reworks and rewrites and delayed more than a year to March, 2025.

Until the final UK tax filings are released, I think we're being conservative in pegging the Snow White budget at $250 after the UK tax rebate check of $55+ Million. I wouldn't be surprised to learn later this year that the budget for Snow White swelled past $300 Million during 2024's reworking and it had a final post-rebate budget of $260 Million or more.

Again... Oof! Disney has to figure out a way to stop spending $200 Million or more on mediocre movies, much less flops.

BTW, I don't think it was ever mentioned here but part of the reason for a larger budget was that Pinewood Studios where they were to film burned down. So they had delays because of that.

Add to that the strike delays, etc., so some of that budget bloat is not entirely their fault. That is not to say they shouldn't bring down the budgets, but it can be understandable why its higher than one would think.

 

[WorldExplorer]

Yes, that's part of what makes this thread so lively. We are really talking about a massive cultural shift for American families.

No longer can the phrase "Walt Disney's..." or even the more blandly corporate "Disney's..." give a stamp of instant approval for parents looking for trusted entertainment for their children and family together.

Burbank really shot themselves in the foot several times over the past 5 years, changing what their brand meant to consumers. My hope is that they can still rebuild their brand and get back to this tagline automatically meaning something for American parents, or whoever is buying a ticket to a Disney movie....

View attachment 849618

I'm optimistic it can be done. But they did this to themselves, and they've got a lot of work ahead of them to fix it.

They would need to completely flush out the company to get rid of all the hacks (this movie is like an ode to hubris) and replace everyone with highly competent people, then keep hiring only highly competent people and actually making good stuff for at least a decade, probably more.

Very unlikely.

 

[Tha Realest]

BTW, I don't think it was ever mentioned here but part of the reason for a larger budget was that Pinewood Studios where they were to film burned down. So they had delays because of that.

Cite for the larger budget cost line item? Disney has a long term relationship with Pinewood, and it’s likely Pinewood would have covered a portion of this on its own, if Disney’s own insurance policies didnt cover this eventuality as well.

Thankfully, there’s a clear record of the total budget costs for 2023 due to the tax break issue, and this production budget is in line with other live action / SFX productions in the UK.

So, show your work please.

Add to that the strike delays, etc., so some of that budget bloat is not entirely their fault. That is not to say they shouldn't bring down the budgets, but it can be understandable why its higher than one would think.

The 2023 numbers predate the SAG-AFTRA strike by six months.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It’s amazing how much things change. My family and I use to go to every Disney movie. Didn’t bother looking at reviews, if it was Disney it was good enough for us.

Now the exact opposite is true.

If it’s Disney it’s a giant red flag.

It’s very very rare we go see anything by Disney.

I’m interested in Stitch but my wife needs to research it before she will green light going.

So maybe that will be our first Disney movie in awhile.

I’ve said similar for years, people used to give Disney the benefit of the doubt and just presume a Disney film would be good, that presumption has changed and with every stumble it just gets worse. Now many wait and see, wait for friends reviews, wait for D+… they don’t just blindly go anymore. That’s true of Disney, Marvel, Star Wars, etc. They’ve lost some of that blind trust Disney = Quality.

The same is also true of a string of hits, I thought with Moana 2 and Inside Out 2 they had re-found their stride, this is going to set them back again, Stitch looks to get them back on track but Disney desperately needs a couple years of successes to reestablish the Disney “quality” preconception and help people forget the last couple years of failure.

 

[Disney Irish]

Cite for the larger budget cost line item? Disney has a long term relationship with Pinewood, and it’s likely Pinewood would have covered a portion of this on its own, if Disney’s own insurance policies didnt cover this eventuality as well.

Thankfully, there’s a clear record of the total budget costs for 2023 due to the tax break issue, and this production budget is in line with other live action / SFX productions in the UK.

So, show your work please.

The 2023 numbers predate the SAG-AFTRA strike by six months.

Where did I say that they were responsible for the costs associated with the fire damage?

All I said was it attributed to delays which increased costs. Filming wasn't underway yet, but construction of the sets and such were being built and they were damaged, so there is also some costs associated with that even if minimal. But its the delay that I'm talking about.

Disney’s ‘Snow White’ Set Catches Fire at Pinewood Studios

A fire has broken out on the set of 'Snow White' at Pinewood Studios in the U.K.

variety.com

 

[Phroobar]

Stitch is really the only thing coming from Disney outside of Fantastic Four that will have any legs. I seriously doubt that the Thunderbolts* will do better than Cap America BNW. It isn't that appealing. How to Train your Dragon should suck a lot of air out of Disney too.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Anyone (rightfully) denigrating the Disney live-action remakes but celebrating How to Train Your Dragon is being more then a bit hypocritical.

HtTyD is almost a shot-for-shot remake. It's lazier and less adventurous then Snow White.

And I think Thunderbolts is going to surprise people.