Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Trauma]

From a gross receipts tally, Snow White should do better than Wish.

But to @Willmark's point, it's going to lose money right in line with Strange World and Wish; something around a $200 Million loss it looks like.

This is a great example of how Disney's bloated budgets north of $200 Million really create a steep hill for even succesful movies to climb to profitability for Disney's flagship studios. We still don't even know what the final budget tally was for Snow White, as the $269,400,000 figure comes from UK tax filings from late 2023. That was before Snow White was sent back for reworks and rewrites and delayed more than a year to March, 2025.

Until the final UK tax filings are released, I think we're being conservative in pegging the Snow White budget at $250 after the UK tax rebate check of $55+ Million. I wouldn't be surprised to learn later this year that the budget for Snow White swelled past $300 during 2024's reworking and it had a final post-rebate budget of $260 Million or more.

Again... Oof! Disney has to figure out a way to stop spending $200 Million or more on mediocre movies, much less flops.

It’s amazing how much things change. My family and I use to go to every Disney movie. Didn’t bother looking at reviews, if it was Disney it was good enough for us.

Now the exact opposite is true.

If it’s Disney it’s a giant red flag.

It’s very very rare we go see anything by Disney.

I’m interested in Stitch but my wife needs to research it before she will green light going.

So maybe that will be our first Disney movie in awhile.

 

[TP2000]

It’s amazing how much things change. My family and I use to go to every Disney movie. Didn’t bother looking at reviews, if it was Disney it was good enough for us.

Now the exact opposite is true.

If it’s Disney it’s a giant red flag.

It’s very very rare we go see anything by Disney.

I’m interested in Stitch but my wife needs to research it before she will green light going.

So maybe that will be our first Disney movie in awhile.

Yes, that's part of what makes this thread so lively. We are really talking about a massive cultural shift for American families.

No longer can the phrase "Walt Disney's..." or even the more blandly corporate "Disney's..." give a stamp of instant approval for parents looking for trusted entertainment for their children and family together.

Burbank really shot themselves in the foot several times over the past 5 years, changing what their brand meant to consumers. My hope is that they can still rebuild their brand and get back to this tagline automatically meaning something for American parents, or whoever is buying a ticket to a Disney movie....

I'm optimistic it can be done. But they did this to themselves, and they've got a lot of work ahead of them to fix it.

 

[Disney Irish]

From a gross receipts tally, Snow White should do better than Wish.

But to @Willmark's point, it's going to lose money right in line with Strange World and Wish; something around a $200 Million loss it looks like.

This is a great example of how Disney's bloated budgets north of $200 Million really create a steep hill for even successful movies to climb to merely breaking even at the box office. We still don't even know what the final budget tally was for Snow White, as the $269,400,000 figure comes from UK tax filings from late 2023. That was before Snow White was sent back for reworks and rewrites and delayed more than a year to March, 2025.

Until the final UK tax filings are released, I think we're being conservative in pegging the Snow White budget at $250 after the UK tax rebate check of $55+ Million. I wouldn't be surprised to learn later this year that the budget for Snow White swelled past $300 Million during 2024's reworking and it had a final post-rebate budget of $260 Million or more.

Again... Oof! Disney has to figure out a way to stop spending $200 Million or more on mediocre movies, much less flops.

BTW, I don't think it was ever mentioned here but part of the reason for a larger budget was that Pinewood Studios where they were to film burned down. So they had delays because of that.

Add to that the strike delays, etc., so some of that budget bloat is not entirely their fault. That is not to say they shouldn't bring down the budgets, but it can be understandable why its higher than one would think.

 

[WorldExplorer]

Yes, that's part of what makes this thread so lively. We are really talking about a massive cultural shift for American families.

No longer can the phrase "Walt Disney's..." or even the more blandly corporate "Disney's..." give a stamp of instant approval for parents looking for trusted entertainment for their children and family together.

Burbank really shot themselves in the foot several times over the past 5 years, changing what their brand meant to consumers. My hope is that they can still rebuild their brand and get back to this tagline automatically meaning something for American parents, or whoever is buying a ticket to a Disney movie....

View attachment 849618

I'm optimistic it can be done. But they did this to themselves, and they've got a lot of work ahead of them to fix it.

They would need to completely flush out the company to get rid of all the hacks (this movie is like an ode to hubris) and replace everyone with highly competent people, then keep hiring only highly competent people and actually making good stuff for at least a decade, probably more.

Very unlikely.

 

[Tha Realest]

BTW, I don't think it was ever mentioned here but part of the reason for a larger budget was that Pinewood Studios where they were to film burned down. So they had delays because of that.

Cite for the larger budget cost line item? Disney has a long term relationship with Pinewood, and it’s likely Pinewood would have covered a portion of this on its own, if Disney’s own insurance policies didnt cover this eventuality as well.

Thankfully, there’s a clear record of the total budget costs for 2023 due to the tax break issue, and this production budget is in line with other live action / SFX productions in the UK.

So, show your work please.

Add to that the strike delays, etc., so some of that budget bloat is not entirely their fault. That is not to say they shouldn't bring down the budgets, but it can be understandable why its higher than one would think.

The 2023 numbers predate the SAG-AFTRA strike by six months.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It’s amazing how much things change. My family and I use to go to every Disney movie. Didn’t bother looking at reviews, if it was Disney it was good enough for us.

Now the exact opposite is true.

If it’s Disney it’s a giant red flag.

It’s very very rare we go see anything by Disney.

I’m interested in Stitch but my wife needs to research it before she will green light going.

So maybe that will be our first Disney movie in awhile.

I’ve said similar for years, people used to give Disney the benefit of the doubt and just presume a Disney film would be good, that presumption has changed and with every stumble it just gets worse. Now many wait and see, wait for friends reviews, wait for D+… they don’t just blindly go anymore. That’s true of Disney, Marvel, Star Wars, etc. They’ve lost some of that blind trust Disney = Quality.

The same is also true of a string of hits, I thought with Moana 2 and Inside Out 2 they had re-found their stride, this is going to set them back again, Stitch looks to get them back on track but Disney desperately needs a couple years of successes to reestablish the Disney “quality” preconception and help people forget the last couple years of failure.

 

[Disney Irish]

Cite for the larger budget cost line item? Disney has a long term relationship with Pinewood, and it’s likely Pinewood would have covered a portion of this on its own, if Disney’s own insurance policies didnt cover this eventuality as well.

Thankfully, there’s a clear record of the total budget costs for 2023 due to the tax break issue, and this production budget is in line with other live action / SFX productions in the UK.

So, show your work please.

The 2023 numbers predate the SAG-AFTRA strike by six months.

Where did I say that they were responsible for the costs associated with the fire damage?

All I said was it attributed to delays which increased costs. Filming wasn't underway yet, but construction of the sets and such were being built and they were damaged, so there is also some costs associated with that even if minimal. But its the delay that I'm talking about.

Disney’s ‘Snow White’ Set Catches Fire at Pinewood Studios

A fire has broken out on the set of 'Snow White' at Pinewood Studios in the U.K.

variety.com

 

[Phroobar]

Stitch is really the only thing coming from Disney outside of Fantastic Four that will have any legs. I seriously doubt that the Thunderbolts* will do better than Cap America BNW. It isn't that appealing. How to Train your Dragon should suck a lot of air out of Disney too.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Anyone (rightfully) denigrating the Disney live-action remakes but celebrating How to Train Your Dragon is being more then a bit hypocritical.

HtTyD is almost a shot-for-shot remake. It's lazier and less adventurous then Snow White.

And I think Thunderbolts is going to surprise people.

 

[brideck]

It’s amazing how much things change. My family and I use to go to every Disney movie. Didn’t bother looking at reviews, if it was Disney it was good enough for us.

Now the exact opposite is true.

If it’s Disney it’s a giant red flag.

It’s very very rare we go see anything by Disney.

I’ve said similar for years, people used to give Disney the benefit of the doubt and just presume a Disney film would be good, that presumption has changed and with every stumble it just gets worse. Now many wait and see, wait for friends reviews, wait for D+… they don’t just blindly go anymore. That’s true of Disney, Marvel, Star Wars, etc. They’ve lost some of that blind trust Disney = Quality.

So I guess my question to the both of you, and anyone else who wants to chime in, would be is there anyone who has replaced Disney in the "blind trust" category where you'll run out to see them regardless? Or is it that Disney is now just on a level playing field with everyone else in your eyes, where it'll just depend on a movie-by-movie basis? Or is it that you don't really go to the theater much at all anymore because the majority of what you had been going to were these automatic Disney releases?

And so I'm not just playing the inquisitor here... I don't think Disney stuff has ever been an automatic ticket buy for me (certainly Marvel never has been), but I'm also an exception in that I don't actually like watching stuff on streaming if I can help it. There are some directors (and to a lesser extent actors) that I trust enough to pretty much make sure I'll go see all of their releases because even if a particularly movie of theirs isn't as great, it'll at least be interesting to me.

 

[brideck]

Anyone (rightfully) denigrating the Disney live-action remakes but celebrating How to Train Your Dragon is being more then a bit hypocritical.

HtTyD is almost a shot-for-shot remake. It's lazier and less adventurous then Snow White.

And the original is already incredibly cinematic anyway. They brought in Roger Deakins as a lighting consultant for goodness' sake.

 

[Casper Gutman]

the narrative "All Disney films used to be great but now none of them are," is a silly narrative largely fueled by a mix of nostalgia and concerns outside the quality of the film itself.

Lets take 2016, a year at which Disney is at the height of its power. Zootopia, Moana, Captain America: Civil War, Doctor Strange! Wow!

Also Pete's Dragon, Alice Through the Looking Glass, The BFG... oops. Also Finding Dory and Jungle Book, neither of which was awful, but neither of which was particularly great.

 

[Casper Gutman]

And the original is already incredibly cinematic anyway. They brought in Roger Deakins as a lighting consultant for goodness' sake.

I actually don't like the original HtTyD that much - it's fine, but it feels empty. And I love pretty much anything Craig Ferguson does!

But I recognize I'm in the minority there.

 

[Trauma]

So I guess my question to the both of you, and anyone else who wants to chime in, would be is there anyone who has replaced Disney in the "blind trust" category where you'll run out to see them regardless? Or is it that Disney is now just on a level playing field with everyone else in your eyes, where it'll just depend on a movie-by-movie basis? Or is it that you don't really go to the theater much at all anymore because the majority of what you had been going to were these automatic Disney releases?

And so I'm not just playing the inquisitor here... I don't think Disney stuff has ever been an automatic ticket buy for me (certainly Marvel never has been), but I'm also an exception in that I don't actually like watching stuff on streaming if I can help it. There are some directors (and to a lesser extent actors) that I trust enough to pretty much make sure I'll go see all of their releases because even if a particularly movie of theirs isn't as great, it'll at least be interesting to me.

No one has replaced Disney for me.

Disney was always automatic.

I’m sure we missed some films but we really tried to see everything.

We don’t go to the theaters at all anymore and I do miss it.

We also canceled our Disney plus because we had not used it in a year, so why keep paying for it.

We are watching Severance currently, I think it’s Apple TV ?

I do want to see Stitch but that will come down to the wife.

 

[Willmark]

And I think Thunderbolts is going to surprise people.

If it pulls the same vibe as SS from DC it’s going to have a tough time regardless IMO. If it can tap into Guardians 1 it might surprise.

The problem is there enough to draw on its own merits? That may be a possitibe as there is little negative buzz may for those who were underwhelmed by Black Widow?

Looking at who they are going with Sebastian Stan is going to need to be flawless in this for it to succeed. David Harbour would be the next possibility. The question with him is: does his acclaim with fans stop and start with Jim Hopper in Stranger Things?

In the end, don’t know. This doesn’t seem to have the negative buzz/baggage of Cap BNW, more of an unknown quantity.

Certainly will be interesting to watch it unfold.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

So I guess my question to the both of you, and anyone else who wants to chime in, would be is there anyone who has replaced Disney in the "blind trust" category where you'll run out to see them regardless? Or is it that Disney is now just on a level playing field with everyone else in your eyes, where it'll just depend on a movie-by-movie basis? Or is it that you don't really go to the theater much at all anymore because the majority of what you had been going to were these automatic Disney releases?

I don’t have blind trust in any studio anymore, Disney was formerly the lone exception. This also isn’t the first time they’ve lost that trust, Disney had a pretty bad run in the 80s, followed by the renaissance era in the 90s, then a pretty bad run in 00s, followed by fairly amazing 10s, followed by pretty bad 20s… I expect the 2030s to be another golden age for Disney.

 

[brideck]

We are watching Severance currently, I think it’s Apple TV ?

Thanks for your candor. That's about what I expected, and judging by overall box office trends you are not alone.

And heck yes, Severance. We have the last two episodes to go -- watching them with friends this coming Friday.

 

[Casper Gutman]

The "golden age" of Mars Needs Moms, John Carter, The Lone Ranger, and Oz the Great and Powerful.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Thanks for your candor. That's about what I expected, and judging by overall box office trends you are not alone.

And heck yes, Severance. We have the last two episodes to go -- watching them with friends this coming Friday.

I think Apple is the best streaming service at the moment by a fair margin.

It's losing a billion dollars a year.

 

[DKampy]

So after reading the commentary here and elsewhere in the web, it appears this approaching Wish or Strange World levels of movie bomb?

Next up is Thunderbolts, can it buck the trend? For my own part I’m only interested in FF this year.

So 1 movie is a trend??? Thunderbolts is the Disney movie I am most interested in