Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Honest question. Will another non-Spidey Marvel movie ever earn as much as Guardians 3? The possibility of “no” has gotta be a concern in Burbank.

It doesn’t appear that way.

Guardians made as much as it has because it’s a really great character movie with depth and heart.

Frankly…Disney can’t seem to pull that off anymore. What’s more alarming is they seem to not want to.

The directors that have done the best with Disney tentpoles are Russos, Gunn and Gareth Edwards…overall…

And they aren’t really complimentary of any of them.

It’s the fundamental problem with Star Wars and how they misread it.

Back to MCU…it’s definitely in a bit of decline. Not sure if it will be reversed?
They don’t have the stars they did.

 

[flynnibus]

Just like there is a point in saying a film has a more domestic appeal.

There is no doubt that international gross potential is notable. But relying on international gross to overcome a lower or poor domestic gross rarely works out long term.

But the discussion here is about 'what money is left to come in...' - knowing that the International market tends to trail the domestic due to release schedules and timing. So no, it's not really the same point about highlighting differences in appeal in domestic.

The poster was just saying... in terms of runway left... MI7 will likely have far more upside to gain from International than Indy does.. so don't count MI7 out yet.

Nothing more... nothing less

 

[Casper Gutman]

Cost vs earning.

For 2023, the cost vs earning ratio is similar for Disney, Paramount, and WB. Without Mario, Universal also has a similar ratio. In fact, Disney’s cost vs earning is the best of the 4, with each dollar bringing back 2.07. This is almost the same as Paramount, and quite a bit better than WB or non-Mario Universal. Sony has, by far, the best ratio, but I wouldn’t bet money it will stay that way - looking at you, Kraven.

 

[Trauma]

I don’t think all this box office talk has ever been “two sided”…as in nobody fully agrees or more importantly DISAGREES with anyone else.

It’s kinda “grey” subject.

Trauma went nuts…but that happens in the high heat sometimes

I did go nuts because I’m mad.

The entire freaking thing is unfair.

Unfair in immense proportions.

There should not be people struggling to feed their family in this country. It is REPULSIVE.

What can be done about it ?

Another poster suggested burning it all down.

Do we need a revolution? What would that even change when then new power brokers are in place?

I’m mad because I have no idea how to fix it.

Vote? Lol I’m not naive enough to think either party gives a poop about what people are going thru.

So what else am I suppose to suggest to someone living in poverty? Should I say “Let’s hope things change because this is really unfair”?

All I got it work more.

I guess I am just so disenfranchised with the entire situation that it’s hard for me to see solutions.

If anyone else has a tangible solution for someone living in poverty to improve their situation that doesn’t involve revolution or policy change I would love to hear it.

 

[Disney Irish]

But the discussion here is about 'what money is left to come in...' - knowing that the International market tends to trail the domestic due to release schedules and timing. So no, it's not really the same point about highlighting differences in appeal in domestic.

The poster was just saying... in terms of runway left... MI7 will likely have far more upside to gain from International than Indy does.. so don't count MI7 out yet.

Nothing more... nothing less

Given that MI7 has released in all markets expect Japan and Romania (Cruise made sure it was pretty much all releasing on the same day), both of which brought in a total of $43.7 combined for MI6, I'm not sure how much more is "left to come in" for international unless it grows legs over the next week.

As I said before, we shall see, but its not looking good so far especially with it losing its premium screens.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Honest question. Will another non-Spidey Marvel movie ever earn as much as Guardians 3? The possibility of “no” has gotta be a concern in Burbank.

Of course. Deadpool 3 has an incredibly strong shot. Downey and several other departed cast members will almost certainly be back for at least one of the two new Avengers films (that’s the whole point of Secret Wars). And at some point the MCU will move forward with the X-Men, which offers as much potential as everything that’s come before.

Those are just the most likely entries to score big. Fantastic Four and Captain America could both find big audiences if the word of mouth is strong. Guardians was a niche IP that built through word of mouth, and that’s what Marvels leveraging at the moment - niche properties.

Honestly, the theatrical MCU panic is absurd. Marvel had the kind of consistent or growing success over a couple dozen films that is unseen in the history of Hollywood. It can’t be overstated how unprecedented that achievement has been. They then suffered two underachievers - Ant-Man and the Eternals - interspersed with strong performers like Strange and Wakanda (which succeeded despite some of the worst conditions possible) and people lose their minds.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For 2023, the cost vs earning ratio is similar for Disney, Paramount, and WB. Without Mario, Universal also has a similar ratio. In fact, Disney’s cost vs earning is the best of the 4, with each dollar bringing back 2.07. This is almost the same as Paramount, and quite a bit better than WB or non-Mario Universal. Sony has, by far, the best ratio, but I wouldn’t bet money it will stay that way - looking at you, Kraven.

Yeah…but you can’t really say “if not for Mario”

Last year “if not for avatar”…Disney would have looked a lot worse with the Lightyear flop

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I did go nuts because I’m mad.

The entire freaking thing is unfair.

Unfair in immense proportions.

There should not be people struggling to feed their family in this country. It is REPULSIVE.

What can be done about it ?

Another poster suggested burning it all down.

Do we need a revolution? What would that even change when then new power brokers are in place?

I’m mad because I have no idea how to fix it.

Vote? Lol I’m not naive enough to think either party gives a poop about what people are going thru.

So what else am I suppose to suggest to someone living in poverty? Should I say “Let’s hope things change because this is really unfair”?

All I got it work more.

I guess I am just so disenfranchised with the entire situation that it’s hard for me to see solutions.

If anyone else has a tangible solution for someone living in poverty to improve their situation that doesn’t involve revolution or policy change I would love to hear it.

So if people can’t catch up…your solution is double work them?

Quite the original idea.

 

[Trauma]

Of course. Deadpool 3 has an incredibly strong shot. Downey and several other departed cast members will almost certainly be back for at least one of the two new Avengers films (that’s the whole point of Secret Wars). And at some point the MCU will move forward with the X-Men, which offers as much potential as everything that’s come before.

Those are just the most likely entries to score big. Fantastic Four and Captain America could both find big audiences if the word of mouth is strong. Guardians was a niche IP that built through word of mouth, and that’s what Marvels leveraging at the moment - niche properties.

Honestly, the theatrical MCU panic is absurd. Marvel had the kind of consistent or growing success over a couple dozen films that is unseen in the history of Hollywood. It can’t be overstated how unprecedented that achievement has been. They then suffered two underachievers - Ant-Man and the Eternals - interspersed with strong performers like Strange and Wakanda (which succeeded despite some of the worst conditions possible) and people lose their minds.

This is what I can tell you.

I meet a lot of people every day.

It used to be commonplace for someone to be talking about the new Marvel movie.

I won’t discredit that Marvel can have a long a successful future I will say that the fever pitch has been subdued.

It doesn’t have the same buzz level.

We will have to wait and see if that is a long term problem.

 

[Disney Irish]

So if people can’t catch up…your solution is double work them?

Quite the original idea.

 

[Trauma]

So if people can’t catch up…your solution is double work them?

Quite the original idea.

Ok so what’s your solution Walter?

 

[Trauma]

I’ll await your solution instead of memes.

I guess it will be awhile.

 

[TalkingHead]

Deadpool is practically a different brand, I’d argue. They probably will bring back some of the original cast but if general fans haven’t kept up with these entries will they bother to show up down the road for that? Maybe.

But there’s also the problem that these big vis effects movies are the most expensive productions to pull off so they’re going to be seen as more risky in the future.

Other studios have more levels/genres at their disposal. Horror, drama, sex comedies. All of which can be mid-budget, less on the line. Disney proper has animated features, action movie franchises, and live-action musical remakes. It’s the corner they’ve painted themselves into.

All of those require high budgets, even when it’s not COVID-era budgeting. I don’t really see how Iger (or anybody else) can solve that problem. They’re locked in to a high-risk/moderate-or-no-reward dynamic.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’ll await your solution instead of memes.

I guess it will be awhile.

First, this is not going to be solved by a bunch of posters in a Disney Fan Forum about Box Office.

Second, there are lots of solutions that can be discussed such as a Universal Basic Income, but maybe not here.

 

[Disney Irish]

Deadpool is practically a different brand, I’d argue. They probably will bring back some of the original cast but if general fans haven’t kept up with these entries will they bother to show up down the road for that? Maybe.

Given that this will be the first rated R MCU film, that alone is going to drum up interest. Not to mention the inclusion of Hugh Jackman, so the combined Reynolds and Jackman, will be a huge draw.

So it should do pretty well, and may even renew interest back into the MCU on the whole.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Yeah…but you can’t really say “if not for Mario”

Last year “if not for avatar”…Disney would have looked a lot worse with the Lightyear flop

Sure you can. It demonstrates that Uni doesn’t have a stronger release strategy than the other studios, it just hit the jackpot with one release. Which, of course, is the whole point of a tent pole-heavy schedule - one hit pays for your whole slate. There is an industry-wide problem, and it’s afflicting each of the studios save Sony to a very similar degree. Sony, by the way, is riding high on cheap horror, the most dependable type of film but not one that I’d like to see be the only thing Hollywood produces.

And Disney’s slate did quite well even without Avatar last year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sure you can. It demonstrates that Uni doesn’t have a stronger release strategy than the other studios, it just hit the jackpot with one release. Which, of course, is the whole point of a tent pole-heavy schedule - one hit pays for your whole slate. There is an industry-wide problem, and it’s afflicting each of the studios save Sony to a very similar degree. Sony, by the way, is riding high on cheap horror, the most dependable type of film but not one that I’d like to see be the only thing Hollywood produces.

And Disney’s slate did quite well even without Avatar last year.

I’d argue that Disney propped up really uncreative Pixar and live action remakes when marvel was at its height.

I’d say None are truly better. Which is kinda an indictment on its own.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Deadpool is practically a different brand, I’d argue. They probably will bring back some of the original cast but if general fans haven’t kept up with these entries will they bother to show up down the road for that? Maybe.

But there’s also the problem that these big vis effects movies are the most expensive productions to pull off so they’re going to be seen as more risky in the future.

Other studios have more levels/genres at their disposal. Horror, drama, sex comedies. All of which can be mid-budget, less on the line. Disney proper has animated features, action movie franchises, and live-action musical remakes. It’s the corner they’ve painted themselves into.

All of those require high budgets, even when it’s not COVID-era budgeting. I don’t really see how Iger (or anybody else) can solve that problem. They’re locked in to a high-risk/moderate-or-no-reward dynamic.

Doubting Deadpool is silly. His integration into the MCU will be an enormous selling point, as will Jackman (and, seemingly, all of the Fox Marvel characters). Unless it’s unimaginably awful, it’s as close to sure fire as you can get.

I know you want it to be the late-60s in Hollywood again, but it’s just not. Cheap horror is the ONLY reliable mid- or low-budget genre - and Disney makes those. Comedies and dramas are suffering even more than tentpoles. One of the big stories of last year is just how badly the prestige, Oscar-y dramas performed. Things like Book Club 2 and No Hard Feelings, which might once have brought in a bit of cash, bombed. Despite this, of course, Disney still produces it’s fair share of dramas through Searchlight.

 

[Trauma]

First, this is not going to be solved by a bunch of posters in a Disney Fan Forum about Box Office.

Second, there are lots of solutions that can be discussed such as a Universal Basic Income, but maybe not here.

Ding ding ding !!

We have a winner.

The problem is the solutions will more than likely take 20 years.

That doesn’t do a person in their prime working years any good does it?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Doubting Deadpool is silly. His integration into the MCU will be an enormous selling point, as will Jackman (and, seemingly, all of the Fox Marvel characters). Unless it’s unimaginably awful, it’s as close to sure fire as you can get.

I know you want it to be the late-60s in Hollywood again, but it’s just not. Cheap horror is the ONLY reliable mid- or low-budget genre - and Disney makes those. Comedies and dramas are suffering even more than tentpoles. One of the big stories of last year is just how badly the prestige, Oscar-y dramas performed. Things like Book Club 2 and No Hard Feelings, which might once have brought in a bit of cash, bombed. Despite this, of course, Disney still produces it’s fair share of dramas through Searchlight.

MCU is gonna Peter out before that ever can Happen at this rate unless they switch it up…
This multiverse is barely keeping its head above water and Avengers B team vs the Easter egg is floppy