Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

I've been following this thread for quite a while, and just want to make a few comments.
I don't understand why some people make rude, sometimes mean, comments about one poster in particular.
This poster, TP2000, goes to the trouble of posting the up to date charts. Some on here then comment rudely and argumentatively about the charts. He also gives those who question the charts where to find them themselves. He has constant rude comments aimed at him and he answers them calmly without arguing.
If someone doesn't like what he says, then just don't read it. It gets irritating to try to follow this thread with all the negative, argumentative comments aimed at him. I've said my piece and won't be on this thread anymore.

Thank you my dear lady. My mom, who was a very kind and gracious woman like you, is smiling down on you and thanking you too.

But please don't be afraid to pop back in here when you've got an interest in a Disney movie's performance later this year, as there are a few movies this summer that will be interesting to watch the market response to (Planet of the Apes 9, Inside Out 2, etc.). The water is warm and the swimming is fine, so dive back in here when you want to!

 

[Disney Irish]

It is? Here is the weekend chart for this past weekend, post Oscars and showing any sort of Oscars Bump.

Poor Things declined 6% from last weekend pre-Oscars, and Oppenheimer increased 171% from last weekend. The dollar figures from this past weekend are not impressive for either film really (which brings me back to my point about how few people watch the Oscars now, and their rapidly diminishing impact on American pop culture), but at least there was a noticeable Oscars Bump of 171% for the winner of Best Picture.

Comparatively, I'm at a loss to see how a 6% decline is the same as a 171% increase. Because those aren't the same.

View attachment 773789

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

Oppie increased by almost 700 theaters. So it was going to get a bump over previous weeks. Looking at its per theater average, its actually lower than Poor Things. Either way a 6% decline is basically flat from week to week, meaning overall it didn't fall off compared to others of the same time period which fell 50-60% on average.

 

[TP2000]

Oppie increased by almost 700 theaters. So it was going to get a bump over previous weeks. Looking at its per theater average, its actually lower than Poor Things. Either way a 6% decline is basically flat from week to week, meaning overall it didn't fall off compared to others of the same time period which fell 50-60% on average.

Got it. I just wouldn't call a 6% decline an Oscars Bump.

At least, using the previously significant impact that the Oscars had culturally in the 20th century. But if a 6% decline for a Best Actress award is now a "good thing" in the week after the Oscars, then so be it. But that just strengthens my opinion of how culturally insignificant the Oscars have become; both in the Nielsens and at the Box Office. Who would've thunk it?

 

[Disney Irish]

Got it. I just wouldn't call a 6% decline an Oscars Bump.

At least, using the previously significant impact that the Oscars had culturally in the 20th century. But if a 6% decline for a Best Actress award is now a "good thing" in the week after the Oscars, then so be it. But that just strengthens my opinion of how culturally insignificant the Oscars have become; both in the Nielsens and at the Box Office. Who would've thunk it?

As has been discussed we're in a new era of Hollywood. No longer is just the theatrical the sole factor for everything. So an Oscar bump can be box office, digital rentals/download, and even streaming viewership increases.

 

[brideck]

Got it. I just wouldn't call a 6% decline an Oscars Bump.

At least, using the previously significant impact that the Oscars had culturally in the 20th century. But if a 6% decline for a Best Actress award is now a "good thing" in the week after the Oscars, then so be it. But that just strengthens my opinion of how culturally insignificant the Oscars have become; both in the Nielsens and at the Box Office. Who would've thunk it?

I just really wish you would engage in conversation on this instead of simply flogging your narrative over and over ad nauseum.

Did you have thoughts/comments on my recent post attempting to demonstrate what the Oscars impact looks like at the box office? I even included a pretty chart. A ~$10m boost (and probably twice that again for overseas, because yes, people all over the world care about the Oscars) is nothing to sneeze at. Or do you not think it's weird that most movies are in theaters for 6-10 weeks and somehow here we are with Oscar-nominated movies still in theaters with reasonably high screen counts some 15 weeks later? Must just be a lucky coincidence.

 

[Chi84]

I've been following this thread for quite a while, and just want to make a few comments.
I don't understand why some people make rude, sometimes mean, comments about one poster in particular.
This poster, TP2000, goes to the trouble of posting the up to date charts. Some on here then comment rudely and argumentatively about the charts. He also gives those who question the charts where to find them themselves. He has constant rude comments aimed at him and he answers them calmly without arguing.
If someone doesn't like what he says, then just don't read it. It gets irritating to try to follow this thread with all the negative, argumentative comments aimed at him. I've said my piece and won't be on this thread anymore.

That's quite a generous assessment; obviously, others disagree.

 

[Ghost93]

I've been following this thread for quite a while, and just want to make a few comments.
I don't understand why some people make rude, sometimes mean, comments about one poster in particular.
This poster, TP2000, goes to the trouble of posting the up to date charts. Some on here then comment rudely and argumentatively about the charts. He also gives those who question the charts where to find them themselves. He has constant rude comments aimed at him and he answers them calmly without arguing.
If someone doesn't like what he says, then just don't read it. It gets irritating to try to follow this thread with all the negative, argumentative comments aimed at him. I've said my piece and won't be on this thread anymore.

Don't feel too bad for him, he clearly loves the attention.

 

[TP2000]

I just really wish you would engage in conversation on this instead of simply flogging your narrative over and over ad nauseum.

Did you have thoughts/comments on my recent post attempting to demonstrate what the Oscars impact looks like at the box office? I even included a pretty chart.

I did read that, and I responded. I guess when the topic of the Oscars Bump came up in this thread a few months ago I was assuming that it was going to be a noticeable bump in box office after the nominations and especially after something wins top prizes on the Oscars TV show.

But apparently the 6% decline in the week after the lady from Poor Things won Best Actress was the "bump"? I'm not sure we should be calling the current box office response to the Oscars, or lack thereof, a "bump".

Perhaps we should call it Oscars Soft Landing instead? Seems more apt, at least statistically and factually.

Don't feel too bad for him, he clearly loves the attention.

It's just a computer screen. And we're all here typing. It's not something one would find comforting and coddling, or at least one shouldn't. And when you close the laptop to go get some lemonade or something, this all goes away.

 

[brideck]

I did read that, and I responded. I guess when the topic of the Oscars Bump came up in this thread a few months ago I was assuming that it was going to be a noticeable bump in box office after the nominations and especially after something wins top prizes on the Oscars TV show.

Except that you literally didn't? I'm talking about the one where I compared Poor Things and The Iron Claw. The one where you can literally see the noticeable bump that you claim to be seeking: https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...current-state-of-affairs.981297/post-10868896

Or this one from back in the day where I showed you what a noticeable bump (and even circled it!) looks like: https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...current-state-of-affairs.981297/post-10818293

Or this one from even farther back where I accurately predicted exactly how the trajectory of Poor Things was going to work: https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...current-state-of-affairs.981297/post-10807656

I just wish that you didn't post as if you were an authority in this space, when that simply isn't the case.

 

[TP2000]

I just wish that you didn't post as if you were an authority in this space, when that simply isn't the case.

I'm quite literally not an authority here. It's obvious. But I can read a basic ledger sheet, and I can see the box office results from the global marketplace quite clearly from reputable industry sources. That data is always pasted here obviously.

Most of Disney's movies for the past few years, especially the mega-budget tentpoles, have done disastrously at the global box office. Most don't even break even, and some lose hundreds of millions of dollars for Disney. That's a problem.

And it's not sustainable. Next up, Planet of the Apes 9!

 

[brideck]

I'm quite literally not an authority here. It's obvious. But I can read a basic ledger sheet, and I can see the box office results from the global marketplace quite clearly from reputable industry sources. That data is always pasted here obviously.

Disney's movies for the past few years, especially the mega-budget tentpoles, have done disastrously at the box office. Most don't even break even, and some lose hundreds of millions of dollars for Disney. That's a problem.

And it's not sustainable. Next up, Planet of the Apes 9!

Your framing and driving of the narrative on this forum for each and every movie (even non-tentpole releases) sets you up as a de facto authority, whether or not you claim to be or successfully present yourself as one. People see big charts with numbers and figure "gee, this guy must know what he's talking about."

And it's still The First Omen next. Although I shouldn't be surprised you forgot about it, as you didn't engage with that recent conversation either.

 

[TP2000]

Your framing and driving of the narrative on this forum for each and every movie (even non-tentpole releases) sets you up as a de facto authority, whether or not you claim to be or successfully present yourself as one. People see big charts with numbers and figure "gee, this guy must know what he's talking about."

Well, as the kids say, that's on them. The facts and data from the global box office stand on their own, and is very clear.

You don't need me typing here to prove that Disney's global box office has been awful from nearly every studio in their corporate arsenal the past two years. That data itself yells that fact from the rooftops.

And it's still The First Omen next. Although I shouldn't be surprised you forgot about it, as you didn't engage with that recent conversation either.

Is that one a big a tentpole though? I thought it was sort of a minor artsy thing from Searchlight. I'll have to go check it out and see its budget, etc. I mean, who the heck releases a horror film in April instead of September or October?

 

[brideck]

Is that one a big a tentpole though? I thought it was sort of a minor artsy thing from Searchlight. I'll have to go check it out and see its budget, etc. I mean, who the heck releases a horror film in April instead of September or October?

It's 20th Century, not Searchlight. And as recently discussed, horror movies can be a pretty significant profit driver, but that's really up to virality and the whims of audiences. You can't really generate that with any sort of intention, but the potential for a boom in the genre is why so many studios continue to try to serve the horror audience.

Edit: I just saw a TV ad for this (watching the NCAA tournament), and... I can't tell what I think. The trailer is so stylized (with its reversed film) that it's really hard to get an accurate impression. I'm not really the target market, though. I've never even seen The Omen.

 

[TP2000]

It's 20th Century, not Searchlight. And as recently discussed, horror movies can be a pretty significant profit driver, but that's really up to virality and the whims of audiences. You can't really generate that with any sort of intention, but the potential for a boom in the genre is why so many studios continue to try to serve the horror audience.

Ah, okay. I just question releasing this in April when the flowers are blooming and sun is shining, instead of waiting for the first weekend in October when the skies are darkening and the leaves are falling.

Edit: I just saw a TV ad for this (watching the NCAA tournament), and... I can't tell what I think. The trailer is so stylized (with its reversed film) that it's really hard to get an accurate impression. I'm not really the target market, though. I've never even seen The Omen.

I saw The Omen. It was very scary for the times, even though the gore and special effects were less than found in The Excorcist (which I also saw). That said, I have no plans to see this one. I'm not a gore and evil fan, and I no longer have to go see movies I don't want to just to get a cute date.

 

[Disney Irish]

Is that one a big a tentpole though? I thought it was sort of a minor artsy thing from Searchlight. I'll have to go check it out and see its budget, etc. I mean, who the heck releases a horror film in April instead of September or October?

Its one of their medium budget films, you know the ones that everyone here wants them to release, under the 20th Century banner. Also horror gets released all year long, for example another horror film from another studio is being released this weekend.

 

[brideck]

But more importantly for this thread, it did very poorly at the global box office.

And this is where your constant framing fails you. It. did. not. do. poorly. at. the. global. box. office. Just by domestic BO it was a top 10 art film in 2024, and it did that on a miniscule number of screens. And it did way better on top of that overseas.

 

[Chi84]

Why is everyone here so desperate to make someone else agree with them? You have your own views and opinions - why does it matter if someone else insists on rejecting them? Just ignore it and move on.

 

[TP2000]

And this is where your constant framing fails you. It. did. not. do. poorly. at. the. global. box. office. Just by domestic BO it was a top 10 art film in 2024, and it did that on a miniscule number of screens. And it did way better on top of that overseas.

Okay. It made $4 Million at the domestic box office. That's about 400,000 tickets sold, or 0.1% of the US population.

I get it, it's an artsy film that almost no one saw (or even heard about) and they weren't expecting it to do real box office. But when it's in a thread dominated by other Disney movies with $200 Million to $300 Million budgets that flopped very badly, a $4 Million domestic box office looks pretty weak in comparison.

How much do you think they spent making and marketing this movie? $10 Million tops? $15 or $20 Million?

Or better question, and I can go try and find the answer myself because now I'm genuinely curious... What's the cheapest movie Searchlight has made in the past 5 years?

 

[brideck]

Why is everyone here so desperate to make someone else agree with them? You have your own views and opinions - why does it matter if someone else insists on rejecting them? Just ignore it and move on.

Speaking for myself, I don't need people to agree with me, I'd just prefer the signal to noise ratio be improved here. And it's a problem when a large chunk of the noise is presented as signal.

 

[brideck]

How much do you think they spent making and marketing this movie? $10 Million tops? $15 or $20 Million?

If it cost anything like that, I think you would have seen them put it on more than 200 screens in order to try to recoup that investment. Having said that, I'm still confused by the release strategy here. This was an extremely well-received movie and it was given the smallest number of screens of recent Searchlight movies by an order of magnitude -- 1/3 of even what Theater Camp or Empire of Light had.