Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[MrPromey]

...

I don't think a new Captain America with some returning cast and Harrison Ford that is already done nor Avatar 3 are going to be films that get lower budgets, does anyone else?

Can't speak to Captain America but if Avatar 3 performs like the predecessors, the cost doesn't really matter.

That's an all or nothing proposition, though. It will either top its production budget and almost instantly be wildly profitable just because of the numbers or it will lose money theatrically and depending on by how much, either be something that doesn't hurt that much but ends Cameron's blank check run or that creates dramatic headlines predicting the end of Hollywood.

It's really not possible for an Avatar movie to be a modest success - it either wins big or fails, pretty much - but that's an anomaly.

 

[celluloid]

For box office purposes? Absolutely none of them. My use of the plural was because it will receive multiple Oscar nominations and/or awards.



The difference here being that EEAaO had already been available through streaming and Blu ray for 6 months when it was nominated, and it still managed to get people to see it for an Oscars re-release. If people will want to see nominees like Poor Things, they will not have another option outside of sailing the seven seas.

We shall see Anything could happen. I see it as more of a "Can I see it soon on streaming? I will have to see that when it comes to Hulu" kind of thing for many nowadays and the rest of the audience that is the type to go see it watching the Oscars...have already seen it.

 

[celluloid]

It's really not possible for an Avatar movie to be a modest success but that's an anomaly.

For sure. It will still do very well, but even it I feel like will be diminishing returns, and I think, the only smash hit of Disney for 2025. That is my wild prediction. I think their animated feature has a chance.

I rarely talk to people who have any sort of fondness for the second one, and have seem to lost a lot of esteem in it now that they know that is what they get for waiting so long. I know Disney is happy to ride that train as far as they can though. Could it take a sudden turn like Marvel did?

 

[TP2000]

Final adjusted box office is out for Golden Globes Weekend the first full weekend of January, 2024.

Look what's down in 17th place and only 42 theaters? Another Searchlight film, this one called All Of Us Strangers. I tried to Google but couldn't find any info on the production budget for this movie.

But what busy little beavers they are over at Disney's Searchlight!

 

[celluloid]

I sitll want to know why Poor things lost 50 theaters. It was the sacrifice for theaters with less screen count for Night Swim I suppose.

 

[TP2000]

For sure. It will still do very well, but even it I feel like will be diminishing returns, and I think, the only smash hit of Disney for 2025. That is my wild prediction.

My prediction is that I will still not get a single blue alien on my doorstep on Halloween, 2025.

Take that one to the bank!

 

[brideck]

We shall see Anything could happen. I see it as more of a "Can I see it soon on streaming? I will have to see that when it comes to Hulu" kind of thing for many nowadays and the rest of the audience that is the type to go see it watching the Oscars...have already seen it.

There's definitely a non-zero amount of people who try to see every Best Picture nominee after they're announced, and this isn't only an American phenomenon. Basically, a nomination means it's given the grace of a longer tail, so I'd expect it to make $1-4 million more in each major country as a result, especially in Europe and Australia. That doesn't sound like much, but it adds up.

You're also looking at the wrong numbers for EEAaO. It went from $70 million after its original domestic release to $77 million after its Oscars re-release. Similarly, it made $1.5 million in the UK, etc.

 

[celluloid]

My prediction is that I will still not get a single blue alien on my doorstep on Halloween, 2025.

Take that one to the bank!

Not a lot of toys under the Christmas tree or for birthdays either.

 

[brideck]

Final adjusted box office is out for Golden Globes Weekend the first full weekend of January, 2024.

Look what's down in 17th place and only 42 theaters? Another Searchlight film, this one called All Of Us Strangers. I tried to Google but couldn't find any info on the production budget for this movie.

But what busy little beavers they are over at Disney's Searchlight!

Indeed. An appropriate comp here would maybe be something like last year's Aftersun, which made $8 million worldwide in the end. Like that, this one may get 1 or 2 acting nominations at most. It remains to be seen how high they'll take the screen count. 100 or so? Considering they filmed at least in part in the director's childhood home, the budget on this was miniscule.

 

[MrPromey]

I sitll want to know why Poor things lost 50 theaters. It was the sacrifice for theaters with less screen count for Night Swim I suppose.

I don't know but I'm not sure if it really matters.

In my neck of the woods, AMC is the only chain showing it and when I went to see it two weeks ago, I had to drive 30 minutes to get there.

Didn't bother to buy tickets in advance because I wasn't expecting much trouble finding two seats for this film at 2:30pm on that Sunday.

It was at a 20 theater AMC and this was in one of the smaller auditoriums and when I pulled up the thing to pick our seats about 40 minutes before starting time, I gasped since there were almost no seats left.

It ended up being sold out besides the first row.

To be clear, I'm not saying I think a full theater is that impressive when it's about half the size of a normal one but this was a Sunday afternoon and it wasn't a new release at that point.

So what am I getting at? I don't know if theater count matters that much with this one as long as there is a theater that is accessible in the general area. This isn't the kind of movie people are likely to show up going "what do we want to see?".

The people that want to see this will likely make an effort to see it the way we did. Those who aren't that interested, probably aren't going to be drawn in... maybe with the Oscars thing but not otherwise.

In that vein, the chains (guessing mostly AMC) may have simply been right-sizing with the change to theater count - pushing more people to the screens that had it rather than something like a Barbie where they're willing to show it at every location 6 times a day even if a quarter of those screenings are almost empty and half are almost completely full.

I mean, other than us talking about it and how it fits into Disney's lineup, I doubt most people who weren't looking forward to this one even realize it exists unless they were watching the Golden Globes the other night and I'm pretty confident that was the expected path for this film because regardless of how well it was made, the story and the subject matter was always going to prevent this from being a mainstream success and I'm sure everyone involved knew this.

The theaters aren't expecting big paydays off showing this one.

With Oscars stuff, depending on how things look for other releases, they might change their stance in coming weeks but I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't.

 

[brideck]

I sitll want to know why Poor things lost 50 theaters. It was the sacrifice for theaters with less screen count for Night Swim I suppose.

I guessed that this was due to Anyone But You upthread. It didn't lose any screens, which is unheard of in a mid-tier movie's 3rd week in release. Similarly, The Boys in the Boat actually added screens. I haven't heard much of anything good about that one, so it too is surprising.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I knew it was a chatbot but I still fail to see why anyone would use it on a forum like this, if I’m ever asked to write an essay on Abraham Lincoln again I’ll figure out how it works though.

Just seems like an odd place to use it.

 

[brideck]

I knew it was a chatbot but I still fail to see why anyone would use it on a forum like this, if I’m ever asked to write an essay on Abraham Lincoln again I’ll figure out how it works though.

Just seems like an odd place to use it.

Agreed. But I guess if you're looking to churn out polite-sounding, yet argumentative, posts that's one way to go about it.

 

[Andrew C]

Dear TP2000,

I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude for your contributions on the WDWMAGIC Disney Forum Board.

Your insightful comments, helpful tips, and genuine passion for all things Disney have not only enriched my own experience but also that of countless others in the community. Your dedication to sharing knowledge, answering questions, and fostering a positive environment has truly made a difference.

In a world where online forums can sometimes become overwhelming, your presence stands out as a beacon of positivity and expertise. Whether it's navigating the latest park updates, offering advice on planning the perfect Disney vacation, or simply sharing in the magic of the Disney experience, your contributions have been invaluable.

Thank you for being a guiding light and a source of inspiration for fellow Disney enthusiasts like myself. Your commitment to fostering a sense of community and sharing the joy of Disney has not gone unnoticed.

Wishing you continued joy and magic in all your Disney adventures, and once again, thank you for being an integral part of the WDWMAGIC Disney Forum Board.

You’re using ChatGPT, eh?

 

[Phroobar]

You’re using ChatGPT, eh?

It is nicer than some people around here.

 

[celluloid]

I don't know but I'm not sure if it really matters.

In my neck of the woods, AMC is the only chain showing it and when I went to see it two weeks ago, I had to drive 30 minutes to get there.

Didn't bother to buy tickets in advance because I wasn't expecting much trouble finding two seats for this film at 2:30pm on that Sunday.

It was at a 20 theater AMC and this was in one of the smaller auditoriums and when I pulled up the thing to pick our seats about 40 minutes before starting time, I gasped since there were almost no seats left.

It ended up being sold out besides the first row.

To be clear, I'm not saying I think a full theater is that impressive when it's about half the size of a normal one but this was a Sunday afternoon and it wasn't a new release at that point.

So what am I getting at? I don't know if theater count matters that much with this one as long as there is a theater that is accessible in the general area. This isn't the kind of movie people are likely to show up going "what do we want to see?".

The people that want to see this will likely make an effort to see it the way we did. Those who aren't that interested, probably aren't going to be drawn in... maybe with the Oscars thing but not otherwise.

In that vein, the chains (guessing mostly AMC) may have simply been right-sizing with the change to theater count - pushing more people to the screens that had it rather than something like a Barbie where they're willing to show it at every location 6 times a day even if a quarter of those screenings are almost empty and half are almost completely full.

I mean, other than us talking about it and how it fits into Disney's lineup, I doubt most people who weren't looking forward to this one even realize it exists unless they were watching the Golden Globes the other night and I'm pretty confident that was the expected path for this film because regardless of how well it was made, the story and the subject matter was always going to prevent this from being a mainstream success and I'm sure everyone involved knew this.

The theaters aren't expecting big paydays off showing this one.

With Oscars stuff, depending on how things look for other releases, they might change their stance in coming weeks but I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't.

It is not showing within 50 miles of me. At a certain point, theater count does matter if it plays like the favourite does.

 

[Casper Gutman]

PS: wait… Wish has earned more than Migration or Trolls 3, hasn’t it?

 

[BuddyThomas]

PS: wait… Wish has earned more than Migration or Trolls 3, hasn’t it?

Strangely, my post about this may have been deleted too. But yeah, it’s number 4.

'Wish' Becomes Fourth-Highest Grossing Animated Film of 2023 at Global Box Office

Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine lead Disney's latest musical.

collider.com

 

[celluloid]

PS: wait… Wish has earned more than Migration or Trolls 3, hasn’t it?

Domestically, not even close. Remember the rule of thumb and all that has to apply here too, not just when you want it to. 50 million more domestically means more than 100 million overseas.

I was always told Trolls 3 would not be competition for Wish with the gap of release. Wish did not stay above Trolls 3 other than about its first week of release.

Migration is still playing well. We won't know the final outcome or legs.

budget wise, not even close. Wish is floppy flop.

Other two animations in this frame are not.

 

[_caleb]

My advice was solicited. And now completely disregarded in your very next post when I responded with suggestions. You prove how disingenuous you are with your actions. I never said emulate me.

I asked for your input. I thanked you for it. But your advice reminded me of your posting style, which I doesn't appeal to me.

The person did not ask why the person did not like something that made it gatekeeping.

In their post it was "Well, I am a fan" and "I would think any adult fan would like something Disney is doing right now."

As I said, I was acknowledging that maybe it was my own fandom that clouded my perspective on Disney's films.

There was no "why" proposed by this poster in the post to the user. It was an implication that they are not a fan in a passive way. Gatekeeping fandom in the form of insinuating an adult fan would have loyalty. Why was that even relevant?

Instead of asking "why haven't you liked anything Disney's put out in the last few years?" I asked, "What are you a fan of?" It was another way to get at the same thing: inviting other posters to share more about their perspectives.

They then solicited how to word things better to encourage response. Specific recommendations were given with words that come across rude, and the very next post, they dismiss it rudely. Actions that do not speak of encouraging conversation.

I asked for your input. You gave it. I thanked you for it, but dismissed it because your advice seemed to amount to, "Don't word tings the way you do," and also sounded to me a bit like, "word things the way I do." So I tried to clearly say, "that's not how I want to engage here."

For sure it is not.

Where is the part asking why they don't like it?

Why was adult fan thrown in there?

Because we're talking about Disney films here, and many fans are children. I would imagine an adult fan would have access to the full breadth of content and could certainly find something to like from all Disney's offerings.