Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

I'll try my hardest to ignore TP's continued willful ignorance on the subject, and say that Poor Things continues to basically track right with expectations.

It's not willful ignorance, it's accurate box office data. In the box office thread, of all things!

That said, @MrPromey had a very interesting write up a few days ago about how Disney's Searchlight, and other indie studios, work as sort of a farm team and hobby shop ("like leathercraft or basket weaving" - Pop Quiz for the gays here, quick who said that!?!) to keep Hollywood talent engaged and artistically fulfilled. Even if the movies lose money.

But that systems seems to be set up under the assumption that the big megaplex tentpole films from the parent company will actually create a profit to keep the indie studio making artsy stuff on the side. Disney's not doing that. Nearly every movie they had in 2023, except Guardians 3, failed to break even. Some lost hundreds of millions of dollars.

So Poor Things heading to a $25 Million loss or so isn't a good look in that environment.

 

[Disney Irish]

Until stated otherwise, it is better to presume they did rather than insinuate right? They sway but many try to bring it back. We also can't presume they mean forever or ten years of not liking what Disney produces.

No, I rather think its more appropriate to ask rather than presume, which is what I got from that post.

 

[celluloid]

So Poor Things heading to a $25 Million loss or so isn't a good look in that environment.

Dang, when you put it that way. Poor Things alone just likely (if it does not pick up)cost whatever profits Guardians made for them domestically theatrically.

I don't see 2025 as a restructure year either. People have said that is when to expect lesser budgets from their big ones.

I don't think a new Captain America with some returning cast and Harrison Ford that is already done nor Avatar 3 are going to be films that get lower budgets, does anyone else?

 

[brideck]

It's not willful ignorance, it's accurate box office data. In the box office thread, of all things!

Willful ignorance = your strawman about an imaginary Golden Globes bump and continually ignoring the apt comparison to The Favourite and what the corresponding expectations here would be ($90-$100 million worldwide, which I think would approach your theoretical break-even point?), etc.

No one here mentioned the GGs before you did, and more broadly, few care about them as they barely survived the scandal of the past few years. An Oscars bump on the other hand is a very real thing. You'll see it in late January.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Downey‘s Globes comment about his agents saying he had needed to restart his career, the implication being post-MCU, doesn’t make me think he’s donning the Iron Man helmet anytime soon.

Imo there’s a not-insignificant amount of love for Oppie because it’s such a pleasant reminder of what he can do with strong material. So I guess Nolan and Universal indirectly have Disney to thank for that.

Disney absolutely already has some level of firm commitment from Downey and Evans to return for the next two Avengers films.

I believe Downey has also said in the past he didn’t have any desire to return to the Oscar thing he did when he was younger. Downey is a very skilled and entertaining speaker, but he can be glib.

 

[TP2000]

I’m guessing most people (including myself) on forums like this are old enough not to know what GPT is, or at best we have a vague idea what it is but we have no clue how it works.

I’m sure my nieces and nephews could explain it to me though.

I'm right there with you. I purposely am posting this before I go find out on Google in a moment, but I have no earthly idea what GPT stands for. Or how it works. Or why anyone on a fan message board would want to use it. Is it free? Does it cost the user money? So many questions.

That said, I would LOVE to know who we think are the GPT robot people here. I've never picked up on that before. There's plenty of weirdo posts on this board from time to time, but I was just writing them off as mental disabilities, or drunken late night rants. I kind of like the drunken late night rants actually.

 

[celluloid]

Willful ignorance = your strawman about an imaginary Golden Globes bump and continually ignoring the apt comparison to The Favourite and what the corresponding expectations here would be ($90-$100 million worldwide, which I think would approach your theoretical break-even point?), etc.

No one here mentioned the GGs before you did, and more broadly, few care about them as they barely survived the scandal of the past few years. An Oscars bump on the other hand is a very real thing. You'll see it in late January.

Poor Things lost 50 theaters over the weekend post wide release. Will it gain that many back in late January for this specific film? The odds are there somewhat, but don't seem great.

More likely to go to Ferari or Boys in the Boat type films.

 

[TP2000]

Willful ignorance = your strawman about an imaginary Golden Globes bump and continually ignoring the apt comparison to The Favourite and what the corresponding expectations here would be ($90-$100 million worldwide, which I think would approach your theoretical break-even point?), etc.

No one here mentioned the GGs before you did, and more broadly, few care about them as they barely survived the scandal of the past few years. An Oscars bump on the other hand is a very real thing. You'll see it in late January.

I believe there were several comments last week about "awards season" helping Poor Things at the box office, so I lumped the Golden Globes in there, especially after Buddy mentioned them a few times earlier in the weekend.

I apologize if the Golden Globes are not a part of that "awards season" calendar.

I'll look forward to seeing the theater count and box office results for Poor Things grow when the Oscar nominations are announced on January 23rd. Goodness knows it needs the help to recover its costs.

 

[Phroobar]

I'm right there with you. I purposely am posting this before I go find out on Google in a moment, but I have no earthly idea what GPT stands for. Or how it works. Or why anyone on a fan message board would want to use it. Is it free? Does it cost the user money? So many questions.

That said, I would LOVE to know who we think are the GPT robot people here. I've never picked up on that before. There's plenty of weirdo posts on this board from time to time, but I was just writing them off as mental disabilities, or drunken late night rants. I kind of like the drunken late night rants actually.

Hey TP2000,

Great question! GPT stands for "Generative Pre-trained Transformer," and it's essentially a type of artificial intelligence language model developed by OpenAI. Now, let's break down what that means for Disney fans like us.

GPT works by training on a massive amount of diverse text data, allowing it to learn patterns, contexts, and relationships between words. Once trained, it can generate coherent and contextually relevant text based on the input it receives. This makes it a powerful tool for various natural language processing tasks, from answering questions to creative writing.

As for why someone on a Disney fan message board might want to use it, there are several possibilities. GPT can assist in crafting engaging fan fiction, generating creative ideas for themed attractions or stories, and even providing information or trivia about Disney parks and characters. It's a versatile tool that can enhance discussions and creativity within the Disney community.

Now, concerning the cost, it depends on how you access GPT. There are both free and paid versions available. OpenAI offers free access to a limited version of GPT, but for more advanced features and usage, there might be subscription plans or payment options. It's always a good idea to check the specific terms and conditions of the platform or service you're using.

In summary, GPT is a fascinating tool that can enrich our Disney fandom experience by offering creative input, information, and a new dimension to our discussions. Feel free to explore its capabilities and share your thoughts with the community!

 

[brideck]

Poor Things lost 50 theaters over the weekend post wide release. Will it gain that many back in late January for this specific film? The odds are there somewhat, but don't seem great.

More likely to go to Ferari or Boys in the Boat type films.

And Buddy Thomas has specifically referenced the Golden Globes many times.

Ferrari and The Boys in the Boat won't be nominated for anything and will be dwindling over the next few weeks.

The Favourite was boosted from 517 screens (down from an initial peak of 810) to 1540 after Oscar nominations came out. So yeah... it seems reasonable to me that they're working from the same playbook again.

 

[brideck]

Hey TP2000,

Great question! GPT stands for "Generative Pre-trained Transformer," and it's essentially a type of artificial intelligence language model developed by OpenAI. Now, let's break down what that means for Disney fans like us.

GPT works by training on a massive amount of diverse text data, allowing it to learn patterns, contexts, and relationships between words. Once trained, it can generate coherent and contextually relevant text based on the input it receives. This makes it a powerful tool for various natural language processing tasks, from answering questions to creative writing.

As for why someone on a Disney fan message board might want to use it, there are several possibilities. GPT can assist in crafting engaging fan fiction, generating creative ideas for themed attractions or stories, and even providing information or trivia about Disney parks and characters. It's a versatile tool that can enhance discussions and creativity within the Disney community.

Now, concerning the cost, it depends on how you access GPT. There are both free and paid versions available. OpenAI offers free access to a limited version of GPT, but for more advanced features and usage, there might be subscription plans or payment options. It's always a good idea to check the specific terms and conditions of the platform or service you're using.

In summary, GPT is a fascinating tool that can enrich our Disney fandom experience by offering creative input, information, and a new dimension to our discussions. Feel free to explore its capabilities and share your thoughts with the community!

In case it's not clear, this response was likely written by GPT or at least was written in its style. Thanks for the example, Phroobar.

 

[brideck]

No the Golden Globe posts from Buddy and one or two others originated about two or so weeks ago.

I stand partially corrected then. I still maintain that my previous posts about a specific Oscar noms bump are being conflated with others' statements about awards. After all, I was directly quoted with TP's latest post about Poor Things' current results.

 

[Phroobar]

In case it's not clear, this response was likely written by GPT or at least was written in its style. Thanks for the example, Phroobar.

 

[TP2000]

I stand partially corrected then. I still maintain that my previous posts about a specific Oscar noms bump are being conflated with others' statements about awards. After all, I was directly quoted with TP's latest post about Poor Things' current results

I went and searched where this concept of "awards season" came from in this thread as a help for Poor Things underwhelming box office. It came about from a few posts from DKampy around December 18th-20th when discussing Poor Things being only in 800 theaters nationwide. (I have no problem with DKampy's opinion or posts on the topic, just using it as the source for where "awards season" came from)

You also made mention to awards (plural), which I took to mean the other awards shows besides the Oscars. Like the Golden Globes yesterday. But the Golden Globes don't count, apparently. (Sorry, Buddy)

Just so we can all be on the same page, which upcoming awards/nominations besides the Oscars count? I just Googled, and there's SAG Awards, BAFTA, People's Choice Awards, etc. coming up the next 8 weeks. Or is it just the Oscars nowadays?

Clearly showing your analysis skills at work…as stated by others Poor Things is expected to nab nominations throughout awards season and is in very limited theaters for now

Who's counting on Searchlight to release big financial hits? They're there to put out 3-4 movies a year and win awards/nominations.

It is strategy that is often used during awards season… the nominations are often used as promotion… January is often a month of a dumping ground for films the Studios did not believe in and films that are award favorites

 

[celluloid]

While it is still possible, especially when a film is an obvious sweep of categories, the Oscar Bump is not anything like the influence what it used to be, even from 2018 to now. Last year when Everything Everywhere All at Once happened, it only gained an extra 4 million on a 2023 rerelease right after and that was after already being 64 million and having a large following for such a film.

If it is a great film I hope so, because then it deserves it.

 

[TP2000]

Hey TP2000,

Great question! GPT stands for "Generative Pre-trained Transformer," and it's essentially a type of artificial intelligence language model developed by OpenAI. Now, let's break down what that means for Disney fans like us.

GPT works by training on a massive amount of diverse text data, allowing it to learn patterns, contexts, and relationships between words. Once trained, it can generate coherent and contextually relevant text based on the input it receives. This makes it a powerful tool for various natural language processing tasks, from answering questions to creative writing.

As for why someone on a Disney fan message board might want to use it, there are several possibilities. GPT can assist in crafting engaging fan fiction, generating creative ideas for themed attractions or stories, and even providing information or trivia about Disney parks and characters. It's a versatile tool that can enhance discussions and creativity within the Disney community.

Now, concerning the cost, it depends on how you access GPT. There are both free and paid versions available. OpenAI offers free access to a limited version of GPT, but for more advanced features and usage, there might be subscription plans or payment options. It's always a good idea to check the specific terms and conditions of the platform or service you're using.

In summary, GPT is a fascinating tool that can enrich our Disney fandom experience by offering creative input, information, and a new dimension to our discussions. Feel free to explore its capabilities and share your thoughts with the community!

Fantastic! Thank you for saving me from another Google search.

I wish I'd know this before Christmas, I could have impressed the young couples at the table and made my sister jealous.

 

[Phroobar]

Fantastic! Thank you for saving me from another Google search.

I wish I'd know this before Christmas, I could have impressed the young couples at the table and made my sister jealous.

Dear TP2000,

I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude for your contributions on the WDWMAGIC Disney Forum Board.

Your insightful comments, helpful tips, and genuine passion for all things Disney have not only enriched my own experience but also that of countless others in the community. Your dedication to sharing knowledge, answering questions, and fostering a positive environment has truly made a difference.

In a world where online forums can sometimes become overwhelming, your presence stands out as a beacon of positivity and expertise. Whether it's navigating the latest park updates, offering advice on planning the perfect Disney vacation, or simply sharing in the magic of the Disney experience, your contributions have been invaluable.

Thank you for being a guiding light and a source of inspiration for fellow Disney enthusiasts like myself. Your commitment to fostering a sense of community and sharing the joy of Disney has not gone unnoticed.

Wishing you continued joy and magic in all your Disney adventures, and once again, thank you for being an integral part of the WDWMAGIC Disney Forum Board.

 

[TP2000]

Dear TP2000,

I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude for your contributions on the WDWMAGIC Disney Forum Board.

Your insightful comments, helpful tips, and genuine passion for all things Disney have not only enriched my own experience but also that of countless others in the community. Your dedication to sharing knowledge, answering questions, and fostering a positive environment has truly made a difference.

In a world where online forums can sometimes become overwhelming, your presence stands out as a beacon of positivity and expertise. Whether it's navigating the latest park updates, offering advice on planning the perfect Disney vacation, or simply sharing in the magic of the Disney experience, your contributions have been invaluable.

Thank you for being a guiding light and a source of inspiration for fellow Disney enthusiasts like myself. Your commitment to fostering a sense of community and sharing the joy of Disney has not gone unnoticed.

Wishing you continued joy and magic in all your Disney adventures, and once again, thank you for being an integral part of the WDWMAGIC Disney Forum Board.

I have just printed this out. It's going on my fridge immediately.

 

[Tha Realest]

I went and searched where this concept of "awards season" came from in this thread as a help for Poor Things underwhelming box office. It came about from a few posts from DKampy around December 18th-20th when discussing Poor Things being only in 800 theaters nationwide. (I have no problem with DKampy's opinion or posts on the topic, just using it as the source for where "awards season" came from)

You also made mention to awards (plural), which I took to mean the other awards shows besides the Oscars. Like the Golden Globes yesterday. But the Golden Globes don't count, apparently. (Sorry, Buddy)

Just so we can all be on the same page, which upcoming awards/nominations besides the Oscars count? I just Googled, and there's SAG Awards, BAFTA, People's Choice Awards, etc. coming up the next 8 weeks. Or is it just the Oscars nowadays?

Will it win “Best Kiss” at the MTV VMAs?

 

[brideck]

Just so we can all be on the same page, which upcoming awards/nominations besides the Oscars count?

For box office purposes? Absolutely none of the others. My use of the plural was because it will receive multiple Oscar nominations and/or awards.

While it is still possible, especially when a film is an obvious sweep of categories, the Oscar Bump is not anything like the influence what it used to be, even from 2018 to now. Last year when Everything Everywhere All at Once happened, it only gained an extra 4 million on a 2023 rerelease right after and that was after already being 64 million and having a large following for such a film.

If it is a great film I hope so, because then it deserves it.

The difference here being that EEAaO had already been available through streaming and Blu ray for 6 months when it was nominated, and it still managed to get people to see it for an Oscars re-release. If people will want to see nominees like Poor Things, they will not have another option outside of sailing the seven seas.