Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Prince-1]

Those articles only use the production budget, after tax credits, to "break even".

The Little Mermaid had an additional marketing budget of $140 Million, per Disney.

Thus, The Little Mermaid had a net loss of just over $100 Million for Disney.

The second article clearly states that the marketing budget of $140 million was already factored in when they said that TLM movie did indeed wind up making a little $$. Here is another website saying the same thing: TLM made some cash. Feel free to post some websites that show that you are right because I will be happy to say that it lost $100 million but so far I will go with three well know legit websites over someone who said they were no expert. Oh, and here is the meaningful sentence in the new link:

"For a film with a budget of $250 million and $140 million in global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid hasn't earned back nearly as much as other Disney live actions, such as The Lion King and Aladdin."

‘The Little Mermaid’ Budget Breakdown: How Successful Is the Live-Action Remake?

Are the film's box office returns enough to keep it swimming?

collider.com

 

[Phroobar]

Why the desire to pretend otherwise is just odd.

Because it's DISNEY!!!
Get back to drinking that Dole Whip!

 

[Prince-1]

At least, and remember no company invests hundreds of millions over several years to “break even”:

The film was hundreds of millions below its needed financial return level.

Why the desire to pretend otherwise is just odd.

Multiple reputable websites were provided that have indicated that including the production budget and the $140 million marketing budget, TLM made money. So what is odd is that that you and others want to say otherwise. Show the backup to show it lost hundreds of millions because I truly want to see it.

 

[flynnibus]

So TLM is finishing 2023 in 6th place domestically. Still calling that a flop? Regardless of financial break even point, it sold more tickets than almost every other movie that came out all year, with so much going against it.

Rankings don’t pay the bills or get on the balance sheet. So no you can’t just say ‘regardless of financial…’

Those are moral victories- not success

 

[Prince-1]

Because it's DISNEY!!!
Get back to drinking that Dole Whip!

Oooohhh, a swing and a miss. I just want the actual facts being reported but I do love me some Dole Whip.

 

[Tha Realest]

Then you would hold Cleopatra to be a flop?

The film that almost destroyed the studio? The one where the lead producer never worked on a film again? This isn’t the own you think it is.

 

[LittleBuford]

The film that almost destroyed the studio? The one where the lead producer never worked on a film again? This isn’t the own you think it is.

View attachment 760781

It wasn’t meant as an “own”. Even if Cleopatra had closed down the studio entirely, I wouldn’t consider it a flop, for the reasons I’ve already outlined.

 

[TP2000]

Oh, and here is the meaningful sentence in the new link:

"For a film with a budget of $250 million and $140 million in global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid hasn't earned back nearly as much as other Disney live actions, such as The Lion King and Aladdin."

‘The Little Mermaid’ Budget Breakdown: How Successful Is the Live-Action Remake?

Are the film's box office returns enough to keep it swimming?

collider.com

So this unknown college student and author of a Collider article, Isabella Soares, mysteriously determined without any sources cited that Disney somehow got to keep 70% of its global box office take from Mermaid? When the standard overseas box office take for American films is 40%. Was this little love gift from global theater chains confined only to The Little Mermaid, or did Indy 5 also break even with a 70% take rate? Only Ms. Soares may know!

For a fun giggle, go read Ms. Soares' bio on Collider.

Isabella Soares | Collider

Isabella Soares is an experienced writer and entertainment journalist, with Rotten Tomatoes-approved reviews. She works for Collider since May 2021.

collider.com

I'll say it hasn't earned back "nearly as much" as a $1.6 Billion and a $1.0 Billion box office.

These are the box office numbers before inflation, by the way...

And this is what those financials look like adjusted for the past couple years of high inflation, becoming a three way race between a $568 Million movie and a $1.8 Billion and a $1.2 Billion movie...

Movie Comparison: The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. The Lion King (2019) vs. Aladdin (2019)

Domestic box office comparison between The Little Mermaid (2023) and The Lion King (2019) and Aladdin (2019)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[flynnibus]

Here is another example of a major theater chain trying dynamic ticket pricing, which is a quick step away from variable pricing....

How Cinemark Is Approaching Dynamic Ticket Pricing

"We do believe that there's an opportunity on the pricing side," CFO Melissa Thomas told an investors conference about factoring in the time of day and day of the week that a movie plays.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

And since I see the majority of movies at my local Cinemark it now makes sense why they cost more than the local regional theater 30 miles south.

This is a lot of of hot air until they address the fundamentals of how theaters operate... with a fixed number of showings.

I mean we already have matinee pricing and different promos on different days of the week. But until theaters can actually dynamically control availability, this won't be that useful. They can't gain efficiencies by packing in a theater because they're still allocating the unfilled theater even if they did successfully shift the demand. All they can do is monetize 'gotta have it demand' -- which is exactly what the theaters are MISSING most of the time.

Otherwise, all you have is discounting.

 

[Disney Irish]

So this unknown author of a Collider article mysteriously determined that Disney somehow got to keep 70% of its global box office take from Mermaid? When the standard overseas box office take for American films is 40%. Was this little love gift from global theater chains confined only to The Little Mermaid, or did Indy 5 also break even with a 70% take rate?

I'll say it hasn't earned back "nearly as much" as a $1.6 Billion and a $1.0 Billion box office.

These are the box office numbers before inflation, by the way...

View attachment 760784

And this is what those financials look like adjusted for the past couple years of high inflation, becoming a three way race between a $568 Million movie and a $1.8 Billion and a $1.2 Billion movie...

View attachment 760785

Movie Comparison: The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. The Lion King (2019) vs. Aladdin (2019)

Domestic box office comparison between The Little Mermaid (2023) and The Lion King (2019) and Aladdin (2019)

www.the-numbers.com

I think the point being made is that while its fun to do back of the napkin math for a laugh we don't have the real financials for any of these movies. So if a studio, or trade, or whomever from the industry says xyz film made profit or breakeven or even lost money who are we to question. We're just a bunch of posters on a Disney fan forum all having a discussion, we have no real impact on any of this, and its not up to any of us to call balls or strikes on any of this.

 

[Disney Irish]

This is a lot of of hot air until they address the fundamentals of how theaters operate... with a fixed number of showings.

I mean we already have matinee pricing and different promos on different days of the week. But until theaters can actually dynamically control availability, this won't be that useful. They can't gain efficiencies by packing in a theater because they're still allocating the unfilled theater even if they did successfully shift the demand. All they can do is monetize 'gotta have it demand' -- which is exactly what the theaters are MISSING most of the time.

Otherwise, all you have is discounting.

I don't disagree overall. But its no different than any other industry with fixed offerings that have demand pricing, for example airlines, concert venues, sports.

And until you get personalized theaters that can show multiple movies at once I don't know how you can change things much beyond what has already been changed. Who knows maybe that's coming, lol.

 

[LittleBuford]

Here is her probable source, authored by someone who is in the industry:

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

(To be clear, I have no idea whether these numbers are accurate or not.)

Quoting the relevant section, for those unwilling to open the article:

In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office (meaning a net profit of $71M before participations and residuals are accounted for), we’re told that Little Mermaid‘s global film revenues would amount to $547M against its combined production, global theatrical and home entertainment marketing expenses of $476M. The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in global home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international TV and streaming.​

And here’s the author’s bio:

Anthony covers box office, breaking film news, awards-season features and festival news. His first job in the film industry was at Savoy Pictures' headquarters in New York where he worked in film distribution. In the summer of 1999, he was hired by Variety and moved to Los Angeles, and remained in the newsroom covering numerous parts of the industry, including box office, for about a decade. Prior to arriving at Deadline in the fall of 2011, where he co-edited the site's sister publication Awardsline, Anthony covered the box office beat for Indiewire's Thompson on Hollywood. He also co-produced Matt Walsh's film "A Better You."​

 

[Prince-1]

In his defense he literally owns all of this and quite smartly knows misinformation can be passed off as truth if one says it with a wink, smile and quirky anecdote.

Well this is definitely true based on the people on here who have fallen for his misinformation. But knowing he is 73 does make it a little funnier. I guess he just needs the attention and likes the thumbs ups that he gets from pushing his weird agenda.

 

[LittleBuford]

Well this is definitely true based on the people on here who have fallen for his misinformation. But knowing he is 73 does make it a little funnier. I guess he just needs the attention and likes the thumbs ups that he gets from pushing his weird agenda.

I too dislike the way he pushes his narrative, but why is his being 73 in any way funny?

 

[DKampy]

Interesting. Is it a smaller theater with fewer screens? Could it be the difference in showing times? Usually matinees are cheaper. What are your prices? Matinees are usually $9 while evenings are $12 for my area. I know LA is way more.

My local theater has about 18 screens… It is about $10 matinee and $12 evening with $2.00 more for premium screens…. We had another theater of the same chain that was even closer that was always much slower… most screenings would be near empty… as the other theater was was much nicer… it did not even have recliners… it was much cheaper too $6 for matinees and $9 evenings… they finally closed that theater… I miss it… it was nice having a cheaper quieter theater nearby, but I took it for granted as well often choosing the nicer theater

 

[Prince-1]

I too dislike the way he pushes his narrative, but why is his being 73 in any way funny?

Just seems funny to me that someone his age keeps posting long winded nonsense about things he has said he cares nothing about. Sounds like it should come from someone much younger who thinks they know everything about anything.

 

[LittleBuford]

Just seems funny to me that someone his age keeps posting long winded nonsense about things he has said he cares nothing about. Sounds like it should come from someone much younger who thinks they know everything about anything.

Why is it any less funny that people our age are likewise wasting hours of their time here?

There is much to criticise about his posts and posting style. His age, however, is irrelevant.

 

[Phroobar]

My local theater has about 18 screens… It is about $10 matinee and $12 evening with $2.00 more for premium screens…. We had another theater of the same chain that was even closer that was always much slower… most screenings would be near empty… as the other theater was was much nicer… it did not even have recliners… it was much cheaper too $6 for matinees and $9 evenings… they finally closed that theater… I miss it… it was nice having a cheaper quieter theater nearby, but I took it for granted as well often choosing the nicer theater

Did your area ever have any discount dollar theaters? Ones that will run only old movies?

 

[Tha Realest]

I too dislike the way he pushes his narrative, but why is his being 73 in any way funny?

Yeah. If that is true, I hope to have his faculties and wit at that age.

 

[Prince-1]

Why is it any less funny that people our age are likewise wasting hours of their time here?

There is much to criticise about his posts and posting style. His age, however, is irrelevant.

Knowing now that he is 73 I find it very amusing that he posts what he does but if it doesn’t move the needle for you then it’s all good. I’m sure there are many things that you find funny that I wouldn’t.