Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Prince-1]

I don't know what people want other than better movies out of the deal. I think some want it to fail because they are tired of live action remakes of animated films.

Moana and Snow White are now not likely to happen the same way due to Mermaid's struggle. Live action was Disney's ace in the hole besides marvel. Both have fatigued this year fast. Disney's theme park synergy film remake did not do well either. The brand has little left because of laurels rested on.

Do you think the Mufasa prequel will really do great? That was Disney's biggest live action remake hit
Will we blame any fatigue on bigotry too?

No movie studio makes a 200 dollar movie to break even or slightly better on the deal and Mermaid was some of the biggest marketing pushes the studio has ever done world wide.

Disney is definitely in a weird place right now and needs some new creative blood to help them get past this slump. But without a doubt some of the reason people are wanting them to fail is because they see Disney going “woke”. Is this the reason for all of Disney’s troubles?? Absolutely not but it is definitely a reason why people are happy to see movies failing.

 

[celluloid]

Disney is definitely in a weird place right now and needs some new creative blood to help them get past this slump. But without a doubt some of the reason people are wanting them to fail is because they see Disney going “woke”. Is this the reason for all of Disney’s troubles?? Absolutely not but it is definitely a reason why people are happy to see movies failing.

Well extremists can talk on the subject all they want on why they want them to fail.

What is happening is most of Disney's movies are failing, and none are resonating.

So we can just ignore the noise of extremists and wonder.

I appreciate your response. I just wanted to clarify that the noise is seperate from the fact that the creative resonating struggle is real and a major problem that other studios are not drowning in the same way.

 

[Prince-1]

Well extremists can talk on the subject all they want on why they want them to fail.

What is happening is most of Disney's movies are failing, and none are resonating.

So we can just ignore the noise of extremists and wonder.

I appreciate your response. I just wanted to clarify that the noise is seperate from the fact that the creative resonating struggle is real and a major problem that other studios are not drowning in the same way.

Oh I disagree about them being extremists but they definitely aren’t the sole reason for what ails Disney.

 

[celluloid]

Oh I disagree about them being extremists but they definitely aren’t the sole reason for what ails Disney.

Wait, I am confused. You don't think that people who hate Disney for representation or featuring tolerance in their stories are extremists?

 

[Prince-1]

Wait, I am confused. You don't think that people who hate Disney for representation or featuring tolerance in their stories are extremists?

It’s late and I misunderstood what you meant. I thought you were saying that the numbers of these people were small and I was saying that there are a lot more who hate Disney for featuring tolerance in their films. So yes, those people can definitely be considered extremists among other things.

 

[_caleb]

I don’t get the obsession over South Park.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t get the obsession over South Park.

Notice how it was never mentioned here until that episode aired, even though South Park has been mocking Disney since 2009.

 

[Prince-1]

I don’t get the obsession over South Park.

It’s been running for over 26 years and had Norman Lear as a fan so it’s been doing something right. They make fun of everything and everyone so them going after Disney means nothing. It was a funny episode as was the recent one where they go after OnlyFans.

 

[TP2000]

TP2000 is not "from the industry." He is a seventy-three year-old retiree in Utah who has written thousands of posts on Disney fan message boards, sometimes for free. In addition to spamming this thread with screenshots of box office data for films he's never seen, he rarely watches and modern Disney films at all.

And TP2000 provides no citations or information about where he gets his data or how he arrives at the conclusions he draws, including when he insists, without evidence, that all Disney routinely lies about how much it spends on its films. He blames poor box office performance on the physical appearance of the actresses who star in the films. Anyone who says otherwise, he dismisses with a laugh. Why? What does he get out of it?

Only TP2000 knows, and he's not telling. He's at a cocktail bar at 3 in the afternoon and has to steam the satin pajamas he wears when grocery shopping, so he's busy.

ETA: this is just a joke and I’m teasing TP, who is a valued member of this fan community!

Well, someone has been doing some research.

Although, I apparently haven't been living up to my own standards; I've never been a day drinker and don't usually have a cocktail until after sundown (May-July timing on that is different, owing to our planet's pesky axis tilt).

But my God.... wearing pajamas out in public? I would never. What would give you such an idea?!? Yikes.

Other than that, your write up was nearly spot on and much appreciated! I thank you for the afternoon (pre-cocktail) laugh!

 

[Prince-1]

But my God.... wearing pajamas out in public? I would never. What would give you such an idea?!? Yikes.

We have pictures.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I don’t get the obsession over South Park.

Some people think that episode is totally on their side while failing to comprehend the nuance of their satire.

It calls out pandering as being lazy but also criticizes those opposed to any form of diversity. Cartman is not the voice of reason some people think he is in this episode, he's always been anything but.

It's basically trying to be the "reasonable middle" which in itself can be a cop out, but regardless, it's ultimately not taking a clear side like some people think.

A lot of people who criticize Disney for "pandering" aren't upset about token or lazy representation, they really just don't want LGBT people to be so much as acknowledged. Complaining about "pandering" has become a dog whistle for them.

 

[TP2000]

Here is her probable source, authored by someone who is in the industry:

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

(To be clear, I have no idea whether these numbers are accurate or not.)

Thank you for this, as I believe I solved the money mystery here.

This author has credited the box office for Little Mermaid with a $100 Million addition for "what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+". That alone would account for why my cocktail napkin math (is it sundown yet?) is $100 Million less than break even.

"The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in global home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international TV and streaming."

So basically, this author is claiming that The Little Mermaid made the following profits from these revenue streams;

$267 Million Box Office Take (or "global theatrical film rentals" in industryspeak, which equates to about 50% of box office as we've been using here for the past year)
$100 Million from Disney+ (what Disney pays itself from its money losing Disney+ division)
$100 Million Home Entertainment (an extremely optimistic, nearly fictitious, scenario for collapsing DVD sales)
$80 Million Intl. TV & Streaming (okay, let's just go with that, whatever it may be)

So in order for The Little Mermaid to "break even", it needs to be credited with $100 Million in extra revenue from Disney itself, and another $100 Million from a DVD/BluRay market that has collapsed.

As an example on DVD sales, since 2022 Lightyear has accrued just over $3 Million in DVD/BluRay/DigitalDownload sales so far. The Little Mermaid will get $100 Million profit from DVD's, per the author. How?

Sorry I’m going to believe Collider and Forbes over you any of the day of the week. I mean, you said you weren’t an expert but man it’s funny because you certainly try to make yourself look like one. And it’s ok, you are wrong on TLM so you’re trying to use one large word salad to save face but at the end of the day, TLM made some money. Was it a lot?? Nope. It definitely under performed but it did not lose $100 million by any stretch of the imagination.

See above. There's a mysterious $200 Million credit given to The Little Mermaid by this author, paid for by Disney itself from one money losing division to another, and a wildly delusional optimistic assumption that The Little Mermaid will sell hundreds of millions of dollars in DVD sales.

Instead of counting on payments from money-losing Disney+ and mythical DVD sales from a lost era, I'll stick with the real box office figures to determine the box office success of a movie.

The Little Mermaid lost over $100 Million for Disney in 2023 based on that.

 

[Prince-1]

Thank you for this, as I believe I solved the money mystery here.

This author has credited the box office for Little Mermaid with a $100 Million addition for "what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+". That alone would account for why my cocktail napkin (is it sundown yet?) math is $100 Million less than break even.

"The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in global home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international TV and streaming."

So basically, this author is claiming that The Little Mermaid made the following profits from these revenue streams;

$267 Million Box Office Take (or "global theatrical film rentals" in industryspeak, which equates to about 50% of box office as we've been using here for the past year)
$100 Million from Disney+ (what Disney pays itself from its money losing Disney+ division)
$100 Million Home Entertainment (an extremely optimistic, nearly fictitious, scenario for collapsing DVD sales)
$80 Million Intl. TV & Streaming (okay, let's just go with that, whatever it may be)

So in order for The Little Mermaid to "break even", it needs to be credited with $100 Million in extra revenue from Disney itself, and another $100 Million from a DVD/BluRay market that has collapsed.

As an example on DVD sales, since 2022 Lightyear has accrued just over $3 Million in DVD/BluRay/DigitalDownload sales so far. The Little Mermaid gets $100 Million profit from DVD's, per the author. How?



See above. There's a mysterious $200 Million credit given to The Little Mermaid by this author, paid for by Disney itself from one money losing division to another, and a wildly delusional optimistic assumption that The Little Mermaid will sell hundreds of millions of dollars in DVD sales.

Instead of counting on payments from money-losing Disney+ and mythical DVD sales from a lost era, I'll stick with the real box office figures to determine the box office success of a movie.

The Little Mermaid lost about $103 Million for Disney in 2023 based on that.

Still trying to push your weird agenda. First you said I didn’t include the $140 million marketing budget and that was proven false and now you are throwing more word salad out to try and prove you are correct. I personally could care less if it made money or not but numerous reputable websites said it made money so I’ll believe them over you. You were wrong and it’s ok. This round is on me.

 

[TP2000]

The irony is, the people complaining about "an agenda" want zero acknowledgement of LGBT people which is itself a pretty dramatic agenda.

For all the talk of Disney needing to make a better product, this is not the answer. Pandering to bigotry won't attract talent. I bet they'd lose talent. Heck, they couldn't even convince most of their staff to move to Florida.

If Disney agrees to erase a demographic from their movies, you think Idina Menzel comes back for Frozen? Lin-Manuel Miranda doesn't do music for them again.

You forgot to mention the part where we are discussing PG rated animated movies for children.

Outside of Muslim nations, no one in 2023 cares if there's a gay character or three in movies rated PG-13 for teens and rated R for adults. Similarly, no one cares if four letter words slip into PG-13 movies, or bare and sex scenes slip into R rated movies. People actually expect that now for those films, largely.

But gay characters and plotlines in Disney cartoons for children? For many parents in the USA, Europe and Asia, that crosses a line. Thus, the global box office for those movies has been dreadful and Disney is pulling back on "representation" in children's movies.

 

[TP2000]

Still trying to push your weird agenda. First you said I didn’t include the $140 million marketing budget and that was proven false and now you are throwing more word salad out to try and prove you are correct. I personally could care less if it made money or not but numerous reputable websites said it made money so I’ll believe them over you. You were wrong and it’s ok.

No, no. I assumed you didn't include the $140 Million marketing budget because how else could it have made money?

But what I now understand is that you are using as your reference the Deadline article from last May that magically credits The Little Mermaid with a $100 Million profit from Disney+, and another $100 Million profit from future DVD sales.

So for this box office thread, I think it wise to stick with our tried and true measure of success; real box office ticket sales.

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

 

[Prince-1]

You forgot to mention the part where we are discussing PG rated animated movies for children.

Outside of Muslim nations, no one in 2023 cares if there's a gay character or three in movies rated PG-13 for teens and rated R for adults. Similarly, no one cares if four letter words slip into PG-13 movies, or bare and sex scenes slip into R rated movies. People actually expect that now for those films, largely.

But gay characters and plotlines in Disney cartoons for children? For many parents in the USA, Europe and Asia, that crosses a line. Thus, the global box office for those movies has been dreadful and Disney is pulling back on "representation" in children's movies.

What “gay plot lines” are you talking about? The gay crush in Strange World that lasted for about two minutes??

 

[TP2000]

What “gay plot lines” are you talking about? The gay crush in Strange World that lasted for about two minutes??

Yup. That's about all you needed in a Disney children's movie for the media and parents to react to it.

 

[TP2000]

It’s also just moving the goalposts to spin a story.

The conversation on these threads and others is always about “theatrical window” profitability, which can be ballpark estimated by the available information and industry standards.

Yes. But I do thank @LittleBuford for tracking down the source material for the theory that Mermaid needed $560 Million at the global box office to break even, even though it had a $390 Million production/marketing budget.

That author for Deadline gave Mermaid a mythical payment of $100 Million from the money losing Disney+, and then also credits it with $100 Million in profits from future DVD sales that are even more mythical than Disney+ profits.

I get it now. Deadline credits Mermaid with $200 Million in extra profit it didn't earn in '23, and won't earn in future years.

 

[TP2000]

Sure, sure, that’s all impressive, but that pales in comparison to the long con you’ve been working since the 1970’s pretending to be gay only to lay the groundwork so you could have credibility when discussing Disney’s “Strange World” in 2022 on an internet forum.

THAT is impressive.

Well, yes. That one did take a little more work, I must admit. I put in some grueling hours.

And you should have seen the bar tabs I had to rack up at bars with names like "Pecs" and "The Rusty Spur" in the 70's and 80's to get that street cred ahead of the invention of the Internet. Sinful!

 

[TP2000]

If we're done accusing me of creating duplicate accounts years in advance, and overthrowing Eisner, and being Al Lutz, and wearing pajamas out in public (I can't decide which one of those is more impressive, but I keep coming back to the pajamas)...

Instead of sharing the box office update for Friday the 29th, here's how the two Disney movies for the holidays are doing as of Friday compared to their nearest holiday competitors; Wish vs. Wonka and The Marvels vs. Aquaman.

This will be interesting to see where it ends up by Sunday, January 7th and the end of the holiday season, but thus far the trajectory is clear and the box office speaks for itself on those two Disney offerings.