Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

This is historically, proven false many times. You can have a ton of theaters in the US with empty seats. Classic Correlation-causation fallacy.

If you have product to exhibit that people want to see, you fill those seats. You can have a few hundred theaters less in the entire US and make billions more. We know this because it has happened.

It is the product, not the exhibitors.

What do they say in finance, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". Just because that is what happened in the past doesn't mean it'll continue that way in the future.

In fact what I've been talking about had actually been predicted by Spielberg (a guy who knows a thing or two about the industry better than us) about 10 years ago.

Basically what he predicted is less movies going to theaters with a majority going to "TV" (streaming wasn't really a thing back then). And the movies going theaters will stay longer but with a higher ticket price, making them event gatherings similar to a Broadway show.

Steven Spielberg Predicts ‘Implosion’ of Film Industry

George Lucas echoed Spielberg's sentiments at an event touting the opening of a new USC School of Cinematic Arts building, saying big changes are in store.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

So lower box office overall because of less product to theaters with less theaters, and majority going to streaming. This is the future of the box office and the industry in general.

 

[celluloid]

What do they say in finance, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". Just because that is what happened in the past doesn't mean it'll continue that way in the future.

Yes, this applies of course both ways. What it does say that if a movie studio wants to do well, they can't rest on laurels and stay a course that does not work. Another way to say this and something studios need to take note of is you are only as good as the last thing you produced. That is rather dire for Disney's case with so many major floppies in a row. Not permanant, but work to be done if they want it to change.

As far as Steven,
He also thought that tentpole movies would get away with charging a higher ticket price and lower budget films would be charged a lower ticket price.

None of that came to be and would damage the value perception of many movies and be detrimental to making films.

Spielberg knows a great deal about great storytelling, business and finances, he surrounds himself with great people. Fun visions though.

The idea that a few hundred less theaters in the country means the box office total number has to take a hit is complete rubbish.


There are less amusmenet parks in the United States than ever. The industry however, has more visitors and ways to profit than ever.

We have still not reached the attendance apex of movie theaters that the 1930s have. Things have greatly changed since then long before Covid.

 

[TalkingHead]

You could literally say this vague kind of business has to adapt claim in many eras be it the 1920s/30's/40's/50's/80s/90s or now.

What is your point? Business have to try and always adapt? This is not profound.There were less theaters in 1995 than there were in a long time and again in 2000. Years performed up and down better inbetween and did were directly correlated to amount of theaters in the country fluctuating.

Movies don’t occupy the same prized place in entertainment culture in 2023 as they did in the 20s, 40s, 70s, 90s. The previous fifteen years have seen the business change and fundamentally lose ground in the cultural spotlight. This is the playing out of that trend and could mean a further contraction of movie theater culture, which in a sense is the contraction of the movie business at large.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, this applies of course both ways. What it does say that if a movie studio wants to do well, they can't rest on laurels and stay a course that does not work. Another way to say this and something studios need to take note of is you are only as good as the last thing you produced. That is rather dire for Disney's case with so many major floppies in a row. Not permanant, but work to be done if they want it to change.

As far as Steven,
He also thought that tentpole movies would get away with charging a higher ticket price and lower budget films would be charged a lower ticket price.

None of that came to be and would damage the value perception of many movies and be detrimental to making films.

Spielberg knows a great deal about great storytelling, business and finances, he surrounds himself with great people. Fun visions though.

The idea that a few hundred less theaters in the country means the box office total number has to take a hit is complete rubbish.


There are less amusmenet parks in the United States than ever. The industry however, has more visitors and ways to profit than ever.

I appreciate your continued conviction on the topic. The industry in my opinion as a whole seems to feel differently than you do though as they move to position themselves beyond the box office. If you can post some article or research that shows what you're saying to be true I might believe you more. But I can't seem to find any trade or analyst that seems to share your opinion, especially now as 2023 comes to a close.

 

[Disney Irish]

He also thought that tentpole movies would get away with charging a higher ticket price and lower budget films would be charged a lower ticket price.

None of that came to be and would damage the value perception of many movies and be detrimental to making films.

BTW, I can't speak about your local theaters, but I can speak about mine. They actually do charge a higher ticket price for tentpole movies and premium screens. And charge lower for lower budget movies.

So it 100% did come to be, as Spielberg predicted.

 

[celluloid]

BTW, I can't speak about your local theaters, but I can speak about mine. They actually do charge a higher ticket price for tentpole movies and premium screens. And charge lower for lower budget movies.

So it 100% did come to be, as Spielberg predicted.

Premium screen is the format. You should expect to pay more if the exhibitor is displaying it differently in format or time.

I have never seen it commonplace for a theater to charge more due to artistic budget or choice of movie. That is a field day to decide and would cause outcry in production.


2023 had a bigger financial success than 2022. With less theaters in operation.

There are many other years and time spans where this has happened. The amount of theaters makes it easier for some to catch a movie, but there is no evidence of less theaters meaning a definite less income for theatrical box office as an entire industry.

Your statement earlier of "less theaters means less box office" has no correlation.

 

[Disney Irish]

Premium screen is the format. You should expect to pay more if the exhibitor is displaying it differently in format or time.

I have never seen it commonplace for a theater to charge more due to artistic budget or choice of movie. That is a field day to decide and would cause outcry in production.

Again I can't speak about your local theaters but the AMC and Cinemark theaters I go to charge more for tentpole films, on average 25% more, than lower budget films since like 2015.

Also its only the tentpole films that get the premium screens, so the increase is attributed to the movie not just the screen format.

 

[celluloid]

Again I can't speak about your local theaters but the AMC and Cinemark screens I go to charge more for tentpole films, on average 25% more, than lower budget films since like 2015.

Hmmm. Interesting. That was considered in 2016. An entire year after you think it started happening. Could you share some evidence on this where the time and theater is the same but it became common for a movie to charge more for admission becuase it was a tentpole 200 million dollar budget?

This article points out directly how the Spielberg prediction that some other pop culture folk had that never came to be. https://www.slashfilm.com/547791/hollywood-blockbuster-ticket/
It never happened as far as I could find. Share a link when you find an entire theater chain doing this as common place as you have implied.

Spielberg thought people would pay 25 dollars a ticket by now to the next Marvel Movie. It simply did not happen. Streaming did not make films more expensive, if anything, it made entertainment more expendable and the standouts well...stand out and are rewarded.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hmmm. Interesting. That was considered in 2016. An entire year after you think it started happening. Could you share some data on this where the time and theater is the same but it became common for a movie to charge more for admission becuase it was a tentpole 200 million dollar budget?

This article points out directly how the Spielberg prediction that some other pop culture folk had that never came to be.https://www.slashfilm.com/547791/hollywood-blockbuster-ticket/
It never happened as far as I could find. Share a link when you find an entire theater chain doing this as common place as you have implied.

Did I say it was common place outside of my local theaters? I only said it happened. I also clearly said I can only speak about my local theaters, not the entire theater chains. Maybe its regionally as I happen to live in a large metro area, whereas in a smaller rural region maybe that doesn't happen. I don't know, all I know is if I drive 30 miles south to a rural local theater I can watch tentpole movies on average for $5 less than the ones closer to me.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hmmm. Interesting. That was considered in 2016. An entire year after you think it started happening. Could you share some evidence on this where the time and theater is the same but it became common for a movie to charge more for admission becuase it was a tentpole 200 million dollar budget?

This article points out directly how the Spielberg prediction that some other pop culture folk had that never came to be. https://www.slashfilm.com/547791/hollywood-blockbuster-ticket/
It never happened as far as I could find. Share a link when you find an entire theater chain doing this as common place as you have implied.

Spielberg thought people would pay 25 dollars a ticket by now to the next Marvel Movie. It simply did not happen. Streaming did not make films more expensive, if anything, it made entertainment more expendable and the standouts well...stand out and are rewarded.

Actually here is your article, so it is happening -

AMC Charging More for ‘The Batman’ Tickets, Just Like Spielberg and Lucas Predicted 9 Years Ago

George Lucas and Steven Spielberg predicted almost a decade ago that superhero films would cost more at movie theaters.

variety.com

 

[celluloid]

Did I say it was common place outside of my local theaters? I only said it happened. I also clearly said I can only speak about my local theaters, not the entire theater chains. Maybe its regionally as I happen to live in a large metro area, whereas in a smaller rural region maybe that doesn't happen. I don't know, all I know is if I drive 30 miles south to a rural local theater I can watch tentpole movies on average for $5 less than the ones closer to me.

It just makes it hard to believe you that one AMC near a metro area charges more for tentpoles consistently than the same screen and format of another film. That would also likely hurt their subscription model too much.

I don't think you saying you have this one theater charges more for big budget movies without evidence means that Spielberg was right about people willing to spend three times as much on tentpole films.
Clearly, it was not a viable thing to happen. The opposite happened. Way more people were willing to go see lower budget movies this year than the bigger tentpole sized ones.

I lived in Central Florida and a few other places that were certainly touristy and could have done that, yet they didn't. At neither Cinemark or AMC.

 

[celluloid]

Actually here is your article, so it is happening -

AMC Charging More for ‘The Batman’ Tickets, Just Like Spielberg and Lucas Predicted 9 Years Ago

George Lucas and Steven Spielberg predicted almost a decade ago that superhero films would cost more at movie theaters.

variety.com

Yep. They experimented with it. And here we are years later, it did not become the norm. The opposite happened and we have a subscription model on top of same pricing for films regardless of budget. They are still doing this at your local theater? That seems odd and maybe check and make sure that you are not selecting a pre ticket sale for those popular movies you are purchasing tickets for ahead of time as there is typically a surcharge with that at theater chains when buying tickets through app or website.

 

[Disney Irish]

It just makes it hard to believe you that one AMC near a metro area charges more for tentpoles consistently than the same screen and format of another film. That would also likely hurt their subscription model too much.

I don't think you saying you have this one theater charges more for big budget movies without evidence means that Spielberg was right about people willing to spend three times as much on tentpole films.
Clearly, it was not a viable thing to happen. The opposite happened. Way more people were willing to go see lower budget movies this year than the bigger tentpole sized ones.

I lived in Central Florida and a few other places that were certainly touristy and could have done that, yet they didn't. At neither Cinemark or AMC.

Read the article I just posted, it did happen.

I think they backtracked on it earlier this year. But its clearly happening at major chains, and may end up being a long term thing.

 

[TalkingHead]

Spielberg thought people would pay 25 dollars a ticket by now to the next Marvel Movie. It simply did not happen. Streaming did not make films more expensive, if anything, it made entertainment more expendable and the standouts well...stand out and are rewarded.

Taylor Swift tickets for adults were $20 across the board, and Beyoncé tickets were $30. Those were AMC-distributed titles but that tells you where the biggest chain would like to go.

 

[celluloid]

Read the article I just posted, it did happen.

I think they backtracked on it earlier this year. But its clearly happening at major chains, and may end up being a long term thing.

Nah, even less people would have seen The Marvels and other flops.

 

[celluloid]

Taylor Swift tickets for adults were $20 across the board, and Beyoncé tickets were $30. Those were AMC-distributed titles but that tells you where the biggest chain would like to go.

Yes. They were that price across the board. A special event without variable pricing on budget. They were not going to do charge more for The Marvels than Five Nights at Freddy's. Imagined the gap if they did.


You would literally have to have a committee and other chains would undercut the crap out of that if they charged 30 dollars for tentpole films.

The opposite happened, and the largest business models currently do the subscription method that they can increase the price of like any other SAAB model.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yep. They experimented with it. And here we are years later, it did not become the norm. The opposite happened and we have a subscription model on top of same pricing for films regardless of budget. They are still doing this at your local theater? That seems odd and maybe check and make sure that you are not selecting a pre ticket sale for those popular movies you are purchasing tickets for ahead of time as there is typically a surcharge with that at theater chains when buying tickets through app or website.

Variable pricing models are already here in many entertainment venue including some theaters. Heck just look at Disneyland variable pricing on their tickets. And yes it still happens at my local theaters, and no I'm not selecting presale tickets.

As so just because it hasn't been pushed wide to all AMC theaters across the nation doesn't mean they won't try and do it. It clear its where the industry is heading and where theater owners want to go.

 

[crispy]

Migration is tracking below Wish right now. That may change, but it is tracking below Wish.

View attachment 760691

As for the rest, you continue to claim the box office is getting better, its not. You've said numerous times that its moving back to pre-pandemic levels, again its not. Yes individual movies have done great and made money, but the overall health of the box office is down. This is not me saying it, its the industry saying it.

Again go read the 2024 prediction from Deadline that was posted in this thread just a couple pages ago. Or the one that I posted a week ago from another industry trade. The box office is down, its not coming back up like you seem to think. Individual movies will make money, but again the whole box office is what is being discussed.

Migration is trending up so it appears to have legs. I wouldn't count it out. Plus, it only had a 70M budget so it won't take nearly as much to break even.

 

[Disney Irish]

Migration is trending up so it appears to have legs. I wouldn't count it out. Plus, it only had a 70M budget so it won't take nearly as much to break even.

I'm not counting it out, I just said its tracking below Wish right now. I even said it may change. In the post before this one you quoted I even mentioned its lower budget might help, but that it might still lose money too. Original animated movies aren't fairing as well as known IP, so its not surprising its been tracking low so far.

To me I'm looking at the overall box office, not individual movie performance. There will always be some movies that do well or even stellar. But its the overall box office that is concerning.

 

[TalkingHead]

Yes. They were that price across the board. A special event without variable pricing on budget. They were not going to do charge more for The Marvels than Five Nights at Freddy's. Imagined the gap if they did.


You would literally have to have a committee and other chains would undercut the crap out of that if they charged 30 dollars for tentpole films.

The opposite happened, and the largest business models currently do the subscription method that they can increase the price of like any other SAAB model.

Not a special event if it plays every weekend for two months. It’s a wide release with upcharge based on demand. Their deals with the studios probably prevents doing the same with titles they’re exhibiting but not distributing. But PLF pricing accomplishes something similar. The subscription packages wouldn’t exist if the business was robust and growing. They’re literally giving movies away if you see more than two in a month.