Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Nah. I can't take you seriously when it comes to cinema predictions.
But what do I know? I am just the poster who has said all along that Wish would lose to Trolls 3 and lose to Migration. I am just the poster who said Haunted Mansion was too bad to be a hit.
Disney wants whatever trends will make them the most money what they are doing right now didn't and Bob Iger already talked about not doing that anymore.

Disney already has market share of most audiences they don't need to pander thus, they will have to focus on producing stories that entertain as well as inspire.

You can't teach or reach an audience if they don't like you. And right now, the brand is one many don't like enough to trust them for entertainment.

And your predictions haven't all panned out either. Migration isn't doing well after all. Its tracking below Wish right now. And while its lower budget helps, it may lose money too.

You're also the one that claims that the box office is getting better and moving to be back to pre-pandemic levels, when in fact its doing worse, and now 2024 is predicted to be $1B or more below 2023 (almost to 2022 or worse levels).

So basically lets just agree that no one can accurately predict the box office.

 

[celluloid]

I don't know what trends are being referred to! The films released under the Disney umbrella this year had very little in common as far as I'm concerned. If "trends" is just a euphemism for "diversity", that's pretty much a standard goal in all mainstream entertainment today and not something that Disney is going to stop pursuing.

The trend was a comment at you being a fan and liking whatever Disney produces and their current efforts in storytelling.

Does a fan mean you have to like everything? You stated that you are a fan so you don't care about financials.

You don't always have to presume the movies did bad becuase of some bigotry.

The number one movie of the year was a satire with and on feminism.

 

[Disney Irish]

Like anything, it can be done well, mediocrely or terribly. Also, a bit of an exaggeration to say every.

Disney is just doing it terribly in terrible movies.

But if you want to say every studio else is doing it, the fact is they are doing it more successfully. Sounds like another Disney problem.

Yes, but the posts I quoted were about how the world wasn't ready for that type of representation in things targeted for kids. I'm just saying that all animation studios are doing it not just Disney. So it doesn't matter on the quality comments or if they are ready or not, its in kids content now and its not stopping.

 

[erasure fan1]

I tend to reserve the term for films that were not well received critically and that lost substantial amounts of money. That's why I wouldn't hesitate to apply it to Wish, even though I myself enjoyed it, but cannot associate it with Cleopatra, which was a smash hit in its own time. Mermaid didn't go badly enough with critics of financially to qualify in my opinion. It's clear we're working with different definitions, and that's OK with me. We're not going to convince each other!

And there's nothing wrong with that. It's why I said it depends on definitions in my first response. It's also why I said it's a neverending dispute as well. I won't convince you, you won't convince me, but that's ok. None of what I posted was to convince you of anything. It was only to give you context as to what I think.

 

[celluloid]

And your predictions haven't all panned out either. Migration isn't doing well after all. Its tracking below Wish right now. And while its lower budget helps, it may lose money too.

You're also the one that claims that the box office is getting better and moving to be back to pre-pandemic levels, when in fact its doing worse, and now 2024 is predicted to be $1B or more below 2023 (almost to 2022 or worse levels).

So basically lets just agree that no one can accurately predict the box office.

Ummm...no its not? It already made 30 million. It is already over half of Wish's total domestic and will continue to play decently as it is the family relevant option besides the hit that Wonka is until Kung Fu Panda 4 in March with family three day weekends sprinkled throughout. A meh for illumination's young company standards of hit plays. But it is certainly projected to pass Wish.

I never said the box office was back to pre-pandemic levels. We are not even producing the same number of movies yet and the strikes certainly hurt that. This year was certainly continuing in the upward direction. Movie theaters are not going anywhere becuase there is still money incoming. Individually, plenty of movies will perform well and in some cases more than tripling their domestic budgets. Disney's films have not done that this year.

 

[LittleBuford]

The trend was a comment at you being a fan and liking whatever Disney produces and their current efforts in storytelling.

Who said I like "whatever Disney produces"? I really disliked Lightyear and have not held back from saying so.

You stated that you are a fan so you don't care about financials.

I said I didn't prioritise profits. Please don't put words in my mouth.

You don't always have to presume the movies did bad becuase of some bigotry.

I never said they did. On the contrary, I've argued against the claim that droves of Concerned Parents avoided Lightyear and Strange World because of their "gay themes".

It seems you're very confused about my position on these topics.

 

[Miss Rori]

I see the Little Mermaid remake more half of one, half of the other. It probably wasn't profitable theatrically but it will have some afterlife in streaming, DVD, basic cable, same of most of the other remakes...but more importantly the merchandise seemed to move well enough (I've seen far less discounting for it than for Wish!) and it helps keep interest in the original film and its merchandise going. That's more than can be said for something like Haunted Mansion or Wish.

 

[Disney Irish]

Ummm...no its not? It already made 30 million. It is already over half of Wish's total domestic and will continue to play decently as it is the family relevant option besides the hit that Wonka is until Kung Fu Panda 4 in March with family three day weekends sprinkled throughout. A meh for illumination's young company standards of hit plays. But it is certainly projected to pass Wish.

I never said the box office was back to pre-pandemic levels. We are not even producing the same number of movies yet and the strikes certainly hurt that. This year was certainly continuing in the upward direction. Movie theaters are not going anywhere becuase there is still money incoming. Individually, plenty of movies will perform well and in some cases more than tripling their domestic budgets. Disney's films have not done that this year.

Migration is tracking below Wish right now. That may change, but it is tracking below Wish.

As for the rest, you continue to claim the box office is getting better, its not. You've said numerous times that its moving back to pre-pandemic levels, again its not. Yes individual movies have done great and made money, but the overall health of the box office is down. This is not me saying it, its the industry saying it.

Again go read the 2024 prediction from Deadline that was posted in this thread just a couple pages ago. Or the one that I posted a week ago from another industry trade. The box office is down, its not coming back up like you seem to think. Individual movies will make money, but again the whole box office is what is being discussed.

 

[Disney Irish]

It seems you're very confused about my position on these topics.

This happens a lot with several posters here.

 

[celluloid]

Migration is tracking below Wish right now. That may change, but it is tracking below Wish.



Again go read the 2024 prediction from Deadline that was posted in this thread just a couple pages ago. Or the one that I posted a week ago from another industry trade. The box office is down, its not coming back up like you seem to think. Individual movies will make money, but again the whole box office is what is being discussed.

If Disney's tentpoles would have at least earned what they should have to not be financial dissapointments to bombs this year, you would see Box office levels right back or close to it.

Migration is tracking below Wish right now. That may change, but it is tracking below Wish.



Yes individual movies have done great and made money, but the overall health of the box office is down. This is not me saying it, its the

Well, most's have. Disney's boats were sinking too much for the entire post pandemic tide to be at bay.
Billion and a half dollars up from last year is pretty dang strong considering we had strikes, delays and lack of promotions.

Theaters will be around making money next year, even if not as much due to rough seas, even as Disney Plus still struggles to be profitable.

 

[Disney Irish]

Theaters will be around making money next year

Well the industry doesn't hold your same opinion -

"We’re talking the red-ink kind, and it will be felt on both sides, studios and cinemas, with the latter sector experiencing a potential collapse come spring among midsized circuits due to the erratic pipeline of product."

Domestic Box Office Expected To Drop By $1 Billion In 2024 Amid Fewer Films & Waning Moviegoer Sentiment. But 31 Tentpoles Provide Hope.

The domestic box office, after being up 21% over 2022 with a near $9 billion in 2023, is expected to shed at least $1 billion of that in 2024.

deadline.com

 

[celluloid]

Well the industry doesn't hold your same opinion -

"We’re talking the red-ink kind, and it will be felt on both sides, studios and cinemas, with the latter sector experiencing a potential collapse come spring among midsized circuits due to the erratic pipeline of product."

Domestic Box Office Expected To Drop By $1 Billion In 2024 Amid Fewer Films & Waning Moviegoer Sentiment. But 31 Tentpoles Provide Hope.

The domestic box office, after being up 21% over 2022 with a near $9 billion in 2023, is expected to shed at least $1 billion of that in 2024.

deadline.com

Deadline's job is to sell the information slant. Not predict it accurately. Touch grass.

If it does not make 8 billion to 9 billion. or more next year, or more it is ok. It does not mean that long term that people are not going to the movies. It means less supply because of strikes.


The problem is product to exhibit, not people willing. Don't go blaming the consumer.

 

[Disney Irish]

Deadline's job is to sell the information slant. Not predict it accurately. Touch grass.

If it does not make 8 billion to 9 billion. or more next year, It is ok. It does not mean that long term that people are not going to the movies. It means less supply because of strikes.

There is a domino effect that you're failing to grasp here. Less supply means less money means the small to mid sized theaters don't make enough to cover costs means they close. This is a cascading effect that can snowball into the closures of lots of theaters next year and beyond. So yeah a $1B or more drop is a huge deal and shouldn't be taken lightly with just a glib "it is ok".

Also note this is already a huge drop from the previous 2024 predictions from just a month ago, its really going to be bad for 2024 -

Box Office Forecast Takes Hit Amid Release Date Delays During Strikes

Movie theater industry analyst Eric Wold cut his domestic 2024 full-year forecast from $9.6 billion to $8.6 billion and his 2025 estimate from $10.29 billion $9.92 billion.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[celluloid]

There is a domino effect that you're failing to grasp here. Less supply means less money means the small to mid sized theaters don't make enough to cover costs means they close. This is a cascading effect that can snowball into the closures of lots of theaters next year and beyond. So yeah a $1B or more drop is a huge deal and shouldn't be taken lightly with just a glib "it is ok".

It is a bummer for those theaters for sure. It happens all the time. It is business. It is unfortunate. Not diminishing that. But it is not the end of all theaters the same way that thousands of small theaters in the 30s/40s closed and was not close to the end of the industry either.

Just because a lot of great restaurants closed due to domino effects of the pandemic does not mean that people are just going to not eat out of the home anymore.

I don't fail to grasp it. It is just not dire to where the industry is over. Studios want theaters. It is still where they make most of their money.

 

[Disney Irish]

It is a bummer for those theaters for sure. It happens all the time. It is business. It is unfortunate. Not diminishing that. But it is not the end of all theaters the same way that thousands of small theaters in the 30s/40s closed and was not close to the end of the industry either.

Just because a lot of great restaurants closed due to domino effects of the pandemic does not mean that people are just going to not eat out of the home anymore.

I don't fail to grasp it. It is just not dire to where the industry is over. Studios want theaters. It is still where they make most of their money.

No one claimed the industry was over. But the industry is changing and will have to change even more when there are less theaters, again its a cascading effect.

 

[erasure fan1]

If it does not make 8 billion to 9 billion. or more next year, or more it is ok. It does not mean that long term that people are not going to the movies. It means less supply because of strikes.

Yea it seems pretty obvious that the 2024 box office will struggle. So much content has been pushed because of the strikes, what did everyone think would happen? The box office wasn't going to get better, that's for sure. We won't really get a good idea of how well the box office is recovering, or not recovering, until 25.

 

[celluloid]

No one claimed the industry was over. But the industry is changing and will have to change even more when there are less theaters, again its a cascading effect.

You could literally say this vague kind of business has to adapt claim in many eras be it the 1920s/30's/40's/50's/80s/90s or now.

What is your point? Business have to try and always adapt? This is not profound.There were less theaters in 1995 than there were in a long time and again in 2000. Years performed up and down better inbetween and did were directly correlated to amount of theaters in the country fluctuating.

 

[Disney Irish]

You could literally say this vague kind of business has to adapt claim in many eras be it the 1920s/30's/40's/50's/80s/90s or now.

What is your point? Business have to try and always adapt? This is not profound.There were less theaters in 1995 than there were in a long time and again in 2000.

The point is less theaters means less overall box office, meaning the overall less reliance by studios on the box office in the longer term. The industry isn't going to collapse, at least not in our lifetime (hopefully), but it will change enough that the box office becomes less important as time goes on.

 

[celluloid]

The point is less theaters means less overall box office

This is historically, proven false many times. You can have a very different number of theaters in the US with empty seats. Classic Correlation-causation fallacy.

If you have product to exhibit that people want to see, you fill those seats. You can have a few hundred theaters less in the entire US and make billions more. We know this because it has happened.

It is the product, not the exhibitors.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

That's more than can be said for something like Haunted Mansion or Wish.

Presumably, a movie about Haunted Mansion also exists to encourage people to visit the theme parks, but it's safe to assume that anyone interested in a movie based on the HM ride is already a Disney parks fan and customer.